James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result for The Australian, which I believe will be the third last poll we get from Newspoll-as-we-know-it, has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 41%, with Labor steady on 37% and the Greens up one to 13%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 38% and his disapproval up one to 53%, while Bill Shorten continues to haemorrhage at 32% approval (down three) and 50% disapproval (up four). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 41-37, up from 41-40. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1169.
Also:
• The latest fortnightly Morgan result records a slight increase in Labor’s lead after an unusually weak result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s primary vote down half a point to 41%, Labor’s up a point and a half to 37%, the Greens up half to 13% and Palmer United down among Katter’s Australian Party in statistically insignficant territory. This results in a slight shift in the two-party lead from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48, although a stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences this time causes a bigger move on that measure, from 51-49 to 53-47.
• Media outlets have reported on two privately conducted ReachTEL polls over the past week, both providing encouraging news for the Coalition. The Guardian reported on an ACTU-commissioned poll of marginal seats which found “a primary vote swing of between 2% and 4% against the sitting Coalition MP, but in most cases voters had switched to the Greens or the undecided column rather than to Labor”. I take that to suggest an overall two-party swing to Labor of around 2%. The poll was conducted a fortnight ago, and targeted one seat in each state: Page, Corangamite, Leichhardt, Swan, Hindmarsh and Braddon. Further results in the article relate an expectation that the government will make further cuts to health and education. The Australian reported that polling of four of Tasmania’s five seats, the exception being Denison, found Labor losing support to the Greens while the Coalition held firm, and also found about 40% agreeing they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported reinstatement of wood waste in the Renewable Energy Target, compared with around 14% for less likely. The polls were conducted on May 21 for the Australian Forest Products Association.
• Jared Owens of The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella will face two rivals for Liberal preselection in her bid to recover her old seat of Indi, which she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. One is Kevin Ekendahl, owner of an auditing and compliance business in Wodonga and candidate for Melbourne Ports in 2010 and 2013, who has “campaigned for same-sex marriage”, which Mirabella opposes. The other is Andrew Walpole, who owns property in the electorate but works as an anaesthetist at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital in Melbourne. Speaking of Melbourne-based, an Australian Federal Police deputy commissioner told Senate estimates this week that it had referred to the public prosecutor four alleged cases of fraudulent involvement from the electorate, out of 28 cases referred to it. This follows claims last year that a substantial number of Cathy McGowan had enrolled in the electorate despite living in Melbourne, most of them being university students who grew up in the electorate.
• Special Minister of State Michael Ronaldson has ordered a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into “claims of intimidation outside election polling booths and the handing out of misleading leaflets”.
• The AEC published public submissions last week as part of its process for the federal redistribution of New South Wales, which will reduce the state’s seat share from 48 to 47. I put the submissions for the two major parties through the wringer in this post, where you can find interactive maps of the proposals along with my determinations of notional seat margins. I’ve also belatedly attached such a map to my similar post for the Western Australian redistribution from mid-April. Draft boundaries for both redistributions are scheduled for the third quarter of this year, with final determinations to be made early next year. There is also a redistribution of the two Australian Capital Territory seats in train, which no one seems terribly excited about.
• I had paywalled pieces in Crikey last week concerning the electoral dimensions of same-sex marriage and contradictory Queensland state poll results.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in the weekly reading from Essential Research is a one point increase in the Labor primary vote to 40%, leaving the Coalition 41%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 1%, with Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds 59% saying it should be allowed and 30% saying it shouldn’t, respectively steady and up two since February. However, the difference is narrower on likelihood of same-sex marriage influencing vote choice, with 34% saying more likely and 22% less likely. Also feaatured are questions on leadership attributes, which as usual record collective movements in line with recent polling on personal approval. That means better ratings for Tony Abbott than in February, with the biggest movements on “out of touch with ordinary people” (down seven to 65%), “erratic” (down six to 54%) and “a capable leader” (up six to 40%). Bill Shorten’s movements might be thought surprisingly modest given his recent polling form – he’s down four points on “a capable leader” to 43%, but also on “narrow-minded”, to 34%.
As it does from time to time, Essential has also sought to gauge the accuracy of respondents’ understanding a public policy issue, in this case the proportion of the federal budget devoted to foreign aid, and found only 13% offering the correct answer of less than 1%. This gives a bit of edge to its finding that 44% think the government spends too much on foreign aid, compared with 16% for too little and 21% for just right. Respondents were also asked to rate the importance of giving foreign aid to various countries, with impoverished neighbours rating highest (66% for Pacific Island countries, 65% for Papua New Guinea) and, I cannot help but notice, Islamic countries rating lowest (Indonesia 39%, Middle East countries 26%).
[Abbott is better on preferred PM]
LOL! And so he should be because he IS the PM and he is in his first term. One reason Abbott nearly got booted at the start of the year was because he has been behind on preferred PM for so long which is extremely unusual for a PM, let alone one in his first term.
Oh and he is also completely incompetent.
Agree happiness.Its pretty extraordinary but Abbott has come back to level pegging essentially as Labor stares another lost election in the face.
SO
June 12? Boerwar reckons June 24
If Abbott is completely incompetent and Abbott is beating Shorten, what is Shorten?
A failed opposition leader happiness?
[Agree happiness.Its pretty extraordinary but Abbott has come back to level pegging essentially as Labor stares another lost election in the face.]
Hey wankerville.
The correct date is June 12.
Abbott – a first term PM and the best he can do is “level pegging”. Hilarious 🙂
[36
Happiness
Im a big fan on checks and balances on Ministers….particularly when it comes to significant issues of individual rights.
We could have the circumstances where a Minister Obeid or Minister Bernardi could make a decision about someone they don’t like and when asked why they just need to say “intelligence”. The central point of our society, versus failed states and disaster societies like North Korea, is that politicians DONT have absolute power.
It is unfortunate, that there are current provisions allowing the Minister for IBP can make determinations on asylum seekers without them having any recourse to appeal to the courts. Few here seemed to care about those ministerial powers.]
You’re right. The heart of this is:
The exemption from judicial review of the otherwise secret use of military, para-military and mercenary force
The extra-territorial confinement of legal quasi-persons
The exercise of arbitrary, unaccountable ministerial and bureaucratic discretion
[If Abbott is completely incompetent and Abbott is beating Shorten, what is Shorten?]
Yeah that’s right farqface, elections are decided based on who is leading the preferred PM category.
Just keep repeating that to yourself at night.
Your just the sort of branch member who likes hanging around electorate offices arent you showson? But never able to take the hint to piss off.
So ESJ and Happiness, would you like an early election?
The only thing I repeat at night is:
Every day, in every way, you are getting better and better and better
[Your just the sort of branch member…]
You’re just the sort of branch member who can’t spell.
[So ESJ and Happiness, would you like an early election?]
An election late this year is Abbott’s best chance. If he can’t figure out a way to go to an election late this year then he will either go to an election next year and lose or he won’t be PM on the election day.
[44
Tom the first and best
I hope the High Court … decides that the Commonwealth cannot take citizenship away for criminal conviction or suspicion or that it must happen through a judicial process rather than an appealable decision of the minister.]
The Court could find that such a process would rely on the use of judicial power and therefore not be able to be exercised by a Minister or a bureaucrat. Really, this is a profoundly important issue. If it were to succeed, it would open the way for any citizen to be deprived of their civil rights.
Well night all – dont know about an early election but I reckon the Shorten death rattle will come soon enough – before Christmas 2015 in any event.
Matthew Yglesias of Vox says “it’s time for the media to admit that Hillary Clinton is popular”. His thesis: that Clinton is clearly the most popular politician in America; that journalists nonetheless don’t like her, because she is “not forthcoming or entertaining with the press”, and “feels that the right-wing press has tried to destroy her for decades, that the mainstream press got played like a cheap fiddle by the conservative press, and that even the liberal press was overwhelmingly hostile to her during her 2008 campaign”; and that this hasn’t mattered because “the public also hates journalists”.
You know the Libs have Stockholm Syndrome when a first-term Lib Govt hasn’t led a poll since Nov 2013 and they’re cheering because the sitting PM is considered a better one that someone who has never been PM (barely).
Bless, keep keeping on you crazy Diamonds.
When they start leading polls consistently, then we’ll talk.
[Well night all – dont know about an early election but I reckon the Shorten death rattle will come soon enough – before Christmas 2015 in any event.]
No one cares what you think.
By the way, the correct date is June 12 you illiterate and forgetful wanker.
[65
Edwina StJohn
Well night all – dont know about an early election but I reckon the Shorten death rattle will come soon enough – before Christmas 2015 in any event.]
Dream on. There is no chance whatsoever that.
[Question
Posted Monday, June 1, 2015 at 11:16 pm | PERMALINK
So ESJ and Happiness, would you like an early election?]
I wanted an early election when Turnbull had a chance of leading.
At this stage, it look like Abbott is safe, and he would win an actual election held anytime soon, so no….nothing in it for me in having an early election right now.
[I wanted an early election when Turnbull had a chance of leading.]
Turnbull was too gutless to take the leadership.
He is the new Costello.
I remember when Gary Ablett (senior) kicked bags of goals and Geelong still lost. Just goes to show one key players performance is all for naught if the score at the end of the day is not in your favor.
[William Bowe
…Matthew Yglesias of Vox says “it’s time for the media to admit that Hillary Clinton is popular”.]
True. Clinton is the biggest favourite this far out for quite some time for POTUS
Can I also take the opportunity to point out that Obama is now more popular than the average presidential approval at this stage:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/presidential-approval-center.aspx
Obama also MUCH higher than GWB (having tracked together for a long time.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_bush_first_term_job_approval.html
….and has about the same approval rating as Reagan did at this stage.
[An election late this year is Abbott’s best chance. If he can’t figure out a way to go to an election late this year then he will either go to an election next year and lose or he won’t be PM on the election day.]
How to call an early election without losing some skin is the hard part. The electorate would instantly wonder why now is better than next year. There would be much fertile doubt for the ALP to Hoe.
I agree about Turnbull too… no ticker…
[At this stage, it look like Abbott is safe, and he would win an actual election held anytime soon, so no….nothing in it for me in having an early election right now.]
From Memory Howard went into 2004 behind 48-52, but he didn’t need to make up an excuse to call an election, because it was about due.
From my partisan perspective the ALP and Shorten are in a much better position than I ever dreamed they would be by this point in the cycle. It looks doubtful that the economy will help the LNP in the coming year either. The GDP data on Wednesday will be interesting.
[Deputy Labor leader, Tanya Plibersek was the seconder of the opposition’s same sex marriage bill which was introduced into parliament today. She speaks to Steve Cannane about the momentum behind the campaign for marriage equality.]
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2015/s4246646.htm
Night all
[The GDP data on Wednesday will be interesting.]
Median prediction by economists and bankers is 0.6%, i.e. the economy is slowing:
http://www.afr.com/markets/underwhelming-gdp-figures-may-mean-further-rate-cuts-20150601-ghdvsm
In all seriousness, anything the 52-48 range, either way, is what I would label too-close-to-call (before any of the grumps growl at me for saying that, I also said the same when that was the Coalition lead over the previous Government.) So, it is very fair to say that Abbott has regained a lot of momentum and that he has a reasonable chance of being returned (although the cockiness and assumed certainty displayed by certain individuals here is unwarranted and could still bite them in the backside.)
As for the ill-informed comment about a hung parliament not happening, nothing could be further from the truth. When polls are this close and there’s a general dissatisfaction with both sides, it is veritably ripe for a hung parliament scenario. I’d also add that many commentators were arguing after the last term’s parliament, cross-benchers would be an extinct species at the subsequent election. In the end, five were elected (from both traditionally Labor and traditionally Coalition seats), so nothing is certain in that regard.
I guess, really, to summarise this probably way-too-long post, nobody should be getting cocky or counting their chickens at this point.
Also worth looking at graphs like this http://blogs.abc.net.au/.a/6a00e0097e4e688833019b014e0cd2970c-500wi when considering how likely a hung parliament is.
The major party vote has been declining consistently in the very long term, and hung parliaments will become more and more likely as long as that trend continues.
79
The Greens have also improved their seat targeting technique (see Melbourne 2013, Melbourne and Prahran 2014 and Newtown, Balmain, Balina and Lismore 2015) and so there is an increased chance of more Greens MPs.
That guy on Qanda tonight who asked about tax cuts and growth – I’m sure I’ve seen him ask questions on the show before. What’s the deal?
Being ahead 52-48 at this stage is like a football team having a narrow leas in a game at half time – say 16-14 in an NRL game. It’s better than being 14-16 behind but the result can very much go either way.
Steve777 @ 83
Agreed and as my point above despite the media crowing about Abbott’s personal numbers it’s teams that win games, not individual players.
Re my comment at 82;
I knew it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQIK1YaCDBc
I wish labor would put a proper budget response forward showing how a fair but tight budget is better for us in the long run and arguing the case for reforms. e.g “We will maintain Gonski funding by closing superannuation tax concession loopholes created by Costello”. It’d be great to see the options put forward and debated in a ‘we can do A or B – what do people want?’ way.
———— for labor to put a proper response it needs a vibrant first speaker/leader which it does not have – bill is so predictable – witness his positive excitement about SSM which is really not a hard thing to do – is labor really going to put country’s future in hands of someone like bill S. he should quietly step down in interests of party and say as much
From Morgan:
[Analysis by Gender shows a majority of women and men supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 54.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 45.5% (unchanged) – Men: ALP 51.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 4%).]
Simplified:
ALP Male 51.5%
ALP Female 54.5%
Yet 2PP 52%
Seems strange.
i can actually listen to the new greens leader speaking with some interest – Hallelujah
[ As for the ill-informed comment about a hung parliament not happening, nothing could be further from the truth. ]
Yeah right. 🙂
Could happen. But its much more likely that in a close election one or other of the major groups will have a narrow majority in the HoR.
@ 52/48 an election could well go either way. That’s simply true, and the Libs have the possibly dubious benefit of incumbency. I say dubious as what the Libs seem to use that for is for opportunities to fwark things up.
Its interesting the “confidence” of morons like our Happless. 🙂 I think that’s rather misplaced considering that this Govt is one of the worst performing AND polling first term govts. Still its a reflection of the Tory mindset.
Be in Power.
Good Govt? Doing anything positive??
For donors yes but Secondary (at best) to Be in Power.
[I wish labor would put a proper budget response forward showing how a fair but tight budget is better for us in the long run and arguing the case for reforms. e.g “We will maintain Gonski funding by closing superannuation tax concession loopholes created by Costello”. It’d be great to see the options put forward and debated in a ‘we can do A or B – what do people want?’ way.]
I think there should be a super profits tax on banks. We have some of the most profitable banks in the world. The revenue raised should be used to increase the tax free threshold.
Under the Coalition tax to GDP is increasing for each of the next 4 years, and the main reason is bracket creep which is really going to effect people on middle incomes. Labor must go to the next election with a policy response to this issue.
89
I am not sure a 52/48 election could go either way. 51/49 is the result furthest from 50/50 that has gone either way (Menzies`s win from opposition in 1949 and Howard`s incumbent win on 49% in 1998). The Commonwealth has a higher number of seats than New South Wales (which had Coalition 2PP of over 52% deliver a hung Parliament in 1991) and South Australia (where lower ALP 2PPs have lead to an ALP government victory) and also a greater diversity of seat electoral patterns.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/31/us-china-smoking-idUSKBN0OF0WN20150531
[Beijing will ban smoking in restaurants, offices and on public transport from Monday, part of unprecedented new curbs welcomed by anti-tobacco advocates, though how they will be enforced remains to be seen.
Health activists have pushed for years for stronger restrictions on smoking in China, the world’s largest tobacco consumer, which is considering further anti-smoking curbs nationwide.]
[90
ShowsOn
Under the Coalition tax to GDP is increasing for each of the next 4 years, and the main reason is bracket creep which is really going to effect people on middle incomes. Labor must go to the next election with a policy response to this issue.]
I agree.
imacca
Posted Tuesday, June 2, 2015 at 12:36 am | PERMALINK
As for the ill-informed comment about a hung parliament not happening, nothing could be further from the truth.
Yeah right. 🙂
Could happen. But its much more likely that in a close election one or other of the major groups will have a narrow majority in the HoR.
@ 52/48 an election could well go either way. That’s simply true, and the Libs have the possibly dubious benefit of incumbency. I say dubious as what the Libs seem to use that for is for opportunities to fwark things up.
Its interesting the “confidence” of morons like our Happless. 🙂 I think that’s rather misplaced considering that this Govt is one of the worst performing AND polling first term govts. Still its a reflection of the Tory mindset.
Be in Power.
Good Govt? Doing anything positive??
For donors yes but Secondary (at best) to Be in Power.
———-murdoch poison has yet to seep in campaign, and the lacklustre bill yet to be tested in hustlings …….. he lacks energy against abbott
labor party could be in perfect storm
meanwhile oz democracy bleeds with the NY octogenarian in the wings
where is our great white (or off white) hope?
[ where is our great white (or off white) hope? ]
There isnt one and we dont need one.
ALP is actually performing damn well for a first term opposition and are in with a good chance regardless of media bias or incompetence. How many first term oppositions have been ahead in the polls for 18mths??
Shorten may not be the messiah, but he and the rest of the ALP front bench have on any objective measure put in a very creditable performance so far.
[From Morgan:
Analysis by Gender shows a majority of women and men supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 54.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 45.5% (unchanged) – Men: ALP 51.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 4%).
Simplified:
ALP Male 51.5%
ALP Female 54.5%
Yet 2PP 52%
Seems strange.]
Those gender breakdowns are from respondent-allocated preferences, from which the overall results was 53-47.
Agree with imacca.
All things considered, it has been a very good result so far for the ALP. Couldn’t fairly ask for much better.
Nothing to get complacent about, and certainly was achieved with a lot of help from Tones himself. But Labor have played that card well enough and are in a strong position for a first term opposition.
My bottom line is not preventing Abbott from winning the next election, much as I would like that to happen. It is making sure he doesn’t get a compliant senate. That is the real disaster to avoid.
WB
Aha!
That explains the ‘strangeness’.
Using the gender breakdown I came up with 53:47, presuming an equal split of genders in the total number.
I did wonder if there is a gender inequality in OZ.
Incidentally, another passing thought I have had that you may be able to explain.
Do pollsters check for eligibility to vote when they poll people?
Or do they just presume all are eligible ie all are citizens, all are or will be enrolled?
Or, is it an insignificant issue?
[This follows claims last year that a substantial number of Cathy McGowan had enrolled in the electorate despite living in Melbourne]
My God, how many Cathy McGowans are there??? 😛
For those paying attention to Canadian politics (federal election in October this year),
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html
The contest is getting pretty tight with the 3 major parties each having projected seats in the 3-digit figures based on current polling.