ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Reaction to the government’s second budget has been mediocre at best, according to the first of what promises to be a flurry of new opinion polls.

ReachTEL has leapt into the post-budget field on behalf of the Seven Network, with an automated phone poll conducted last night from 3180 respondents. It records a slight improvement for the Coalition compared with the pollster’s earlier holding pattern, with the Coalition primary vote on 41.1% (up 1.3%), Labor on 38.3% (down 1.0%), the Greens on 12.1% (up 0.2%) and Palmer United on 2.2% (steady). Interestingly, the poll provides breakdowns by respondents’ employment status, which I might take a closer look at later in comparison with past post-election survey data. The budget doesn’t get a huge endorsement, with 16.4% rating they will be better off, 30.3% worse off and 53.3% about the same.

Contrary to other recent polling, this result gives Bill Shorten a clear lead on preferred prime minister of 57.2-42.8, with the important methodological distinction that respondents to this poll were not allowed an “uncommitted” option. Questions on leadership approval provide more evidence of Tony Abbott’s ongoing improvement, while Bill Shorten’s “satisfactory” result is up at the expense of both favourable and unfavourable responses. A three-way question on who has done the best job promoting the budget finds only 11.7% favouring Tony Abbott, with the rest divided between Joe Hockey (44.8%) and Scott Morrison (43.4%). Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [Good call. The aBC can suck up to the Tories for all their worth but it won’t save them.

    Murdoch wants them gone.]

    No, a cowed and compliant ABC performs a very important function – propaganda laundering.

  2. 840
    confessions

    The LNP are trying to shame and blame mothers. They are obviously trying to alienate as many voters as possible and doubtless will succeed 🙂

  3. Those at the ABC won’t be happy they don’t get to double dip the taxpayer anymore for PPL, Happiness

  4. victoria:

    There hasn’t been a more incompetent federal govt in my lifetime than the one we currently have.

  5. zoomster

    What happened to Joe’s tour?

    He’s waiting to offer himself at the next North Sydney Forum sale

  6. Happiness, ‘The contents of my genitalia have never been revealed.’ but I bet it is a word starting with ‘u’.

    As for this statement ‘Having a fixed Medicare Levy which covers all Federal health spend (perhaps call it the Health Levy instead) is wise as it is the taxpayer that always complains tax.’

    Strange logic… Tax people because they complain about tax.

    The question I have. How would you like to pay for health care?

  7. briefly:

    The LNP are trying to hang onto power at any cost, and haven’t given a lot of thought into how they are going to do this. Hence the rollercoaster ride they’re taking the country on – Whatever It Takes.

  8. Adrian

    The ABC is required, in the name of “balance”, to give Labor air time. The Tories would happily give up their favourable coverage to see labor switched off. After all they will still have Murdoch.

  9. BK@853

    How did THAT stuff get in there>

    You must have inadvertently clicked the “Recommend cccp” button instead of the “post comment” button which is just above it.

    No harm done.

  10. Victoria

    The only thing Mark Kenny doesn’t mention in your linked article is date of next challenge on Tony’s leadership.

  11. Rossmcg,
    I don’t mind Worsfold, but he didn’t keep much of a rein on some of his ‘bad boys’ at West Coast. Carlton could do with someone like Roos or Longmire.

  12. [There hasn’t been a more incompetent federal govt in my lifetime than the one we currently have.]

    Or a nastier one.

  13. Is it certain that Happiness really is Mod Lib and not just someone else with the same avatar? Mod Lib seemed to be really worried about the fate of seaborne Asylum seekers

  14. [PeeBee
    …The question I have. How would you like to pay for health care?]

    You may have misunderstood me. I am happy for Australia to have an excellent healthcare system…..nearly on par with scandinavia despite much lower taxation (probably due to the high quality of medical staff????? Hehe 🙂 ).

    I was serious when I said we should have a Health Levy on Income Tax that actually approximates the amount we need to raise to pay for healthcare.

    Then:
    1. The taxpayer would understand exactly how much health costs
    2. The taxpayer can determine whether or not they want something (NDIS) based on the truth about its costs.*

    *FWIW I wholeheartedly support the NDIS and paying whatever tax is needed to pay for it as I said when it was proposed.

  15. [paaptsef
    ….Is it certain that Happiness really is Mod Lib and not just someone else with the same avatar? Mod Lib seemed to be really worried about the fate of seaborne Asylum seekers]

    As am I.

  16. [PeeBee
    …Happiness, ‘The contents of my genitalia have never been revealed.’ but I bet it is a word starting with ‘u’.]

    I went to a private school, I don’t understand that reference.

  17. 855
    TB

    Mothers will be very angry that Abbott has labelled them as frauds and then cut their incomes at the time when they most need some support. By definition, women who are eligible for PPL from any source have been working and paying tax. They are well and truly entitled to expect the deal they’ve on which they’ve been relying will be honoured. The Government is pressuring employers to break their commitments to their employees. That’s under-arm bowling.

    Women generally are less well-paid, in less-secure employment and accumulate less super. Now the LNP have said to women that their contributions to the workforce and the national revenue don’t really count. The LNP is playing favourites. Some taxpayers will get a break. Mothers will get a big pay cut and a stream of public insults.

    Sexism means a big hit to new mothers. Shameful politics by the LNP.

  18. as a long suffering Carlton supporter, i would prefer to see Brett Ratten back at the club. After all, he is getting a fine education right now working with coach Alastair Clarkson

  19. [Rossmcg,
    I don’t mind Worsfold, but he didn’t keep much of a rein on some of his ‘bad boys’ at West Coast. Carlton could do with someone like Roos or Longmire.]

    The stories I get from the old boys claiming to be in the know have Worsfold as very naive but neither contributing to or actually understanding/believing the problem.

    I also think the number of actual bad boys isn’t as great as is believed.

  20. [The ABC is required, in the name of “balance”, to give Labor air time. The Tories would happily give up their favourable coverage to see labor switched off. After all they will still have Murdoch.]

    With respect I think this is a rather simplistic view of it. A metric like ‘air time’ doesn’t account for the tone and content of this time. It’s great for the coalition and its backers for Labor to be consistently presented in a negative light by a superficially independent news organisation that people trust.

  21. [as a long suffering Carlton supporter, i would prefer to see Brett Ratten back at the club. After all, he is getting a fine education right now working with coach Alastair Clarkson]

    As a West Coast fan it is truly beautiful to see Malthouse and Judd suffering.

  22. [as a long suffering Carlton supporter, i would prefer to see Brett Ratten back at the club. After all, he is getting a fine education right now working with coach Alastair Clarkson]

    As a West Coast fan it is truly beautiful to see Malthouse and Judd suffering.

  23. Expat:

    Thanks for directing me to last nights discussion.

    I cannot tell you how amusing I found it!
    😀

    psyclaw has it out for me because I made an off-hand comment that weddings could be tax deducted as there was a NSW Health Meal Entertainment scheme.

    psyclaw said that was “bullshit” (can’t remember the exact word but you get the drift)

    I suggested psyclaw might like to investigate further before shooting from the hip

    psyclaw decided against that approach and kept going

    Then I provided a whole series of links showing how the scheme works

    Days later psyclaw sulked back to PB and laughed because it was a “salary sacrifice” arrangement rather than a “tax deduction”. Haha 🙂

    psyclaw has been bringing it up ever since (is it a year or more now friend)?

    Needless to say, it has been a huge source of amusement to me, given psyclaw’s inability to admit not knowing that wedding catering was an eligible claim on that scheme (hence the need to pretend it was all about the technicality of whether having a reduced tax burden was a tax deduction strictly speaking or a creature of another name that had the effect of reducing one’s tax).

    Don’t you ever stop psyclaw, keep on keeping on….its one of the attractions for me to come here!
    :devil:

  24. paaptsef:

    You obvisouly haven’t been around much then.

    Just a few days ago we had a protracted discussion on the topic at which time I asked for about the 5th or 6th time whether anyone here had changed their views on mandatory detention (given the overwhelming majority of ALP supporters here are very much pro mandatory detention……including zoomster a former candidate for example).

    I was very pleased to see a few admit to changing their view.

    Lets hope more do too. Interesting to see what happens with the court case questioning the legality of detention.

  25. [“The LNP are trying to shame and blame mothers. They are obviously trying to alienate as many voters as possible and doubtless will succeed”]

    Low Paid mothers will be wondering why they only get paid Labors minimum wage PPL, while millionaire mummies get to double dip the taxpayer and top up their very generous employer payments.

  26. [861
    confessions

    briefly:

    The LNP are trying to hang onto power at any cost, and haven’t given a lot of thought into how they are going to do this.]

    Quite so, confessions.

    They are a shambles…and obviously take us all for fools.

  27. WWP

    Worsfold naive?

    Maybe

    A pharmacist who doesn’t know his best player is an addict and several others have a more than casual acquaintance with illicit substances…

    Maybe he decided that while they were winning he didn’t need to know.

    Apart from that I am most sure he is that great a coach. He did have a handy team.

    Carlton need someone to build from scratch

  28. 888
    TrueBlueAussie

    You obviously don’t have much to do with new mothers, who will deeply resent Abbott for undermining their conditions of employment. Women are an absolutely indispensable part of the work force. The work-family complex is difficult enough and Abbott has just made it more difficult. Abbott has just told the nations new mothers they are all frauds. He should be ashamed of himself.

  29. Happiness,

    [the contents of my genitalia have never been revealed]

    yes if memory serves there was someone from Leeton that complained bitterly about this many years ago as well 🙂

  30. [As a West Coast fan it is truly beautiful to see Malthouse and Judd suffering.]

    Why? Judd escaped the crushing and incestuous drug culture of the WCE. Malthouse no doubt similar, surely this is something to applaud the two of them for?

  31. [Why? Judd escaped the crushing and incestuous drug culture of the WCE. Malthouse no doubt similar, surely this is something to applaud the two of them for?]

    Judd and Malthouse were both leaders of the club responsible for it. Malthouse got a couple of premierships where he should have had a few more and Judd well he just didn’t have what it takes to be a leader.

  32. Just on mandatory detention of undocumented arrivals, Happiness, are you really against the principle of this or is it restricted to how we seem to have gotten it horribly wrong in terms of execution?

  33. [You aren’t anywhere near as animated about it as Mod Lib]

    This is true, and something I’ve noted many times. Apart from the odd comment here and there with months-long intervals between them, the current iteration of ML doesn’t mention boats at all.

    Quite a difference from when Labor was in govt, when ML would mention boats every day, or at least every time s/he was commenting.

  34. Victoria,
    I remember Carlton under Ratten almost beat WC in a final in Perth before Mick took over. The question is would Ratten want Carlton now.

  35. WWP:

    I imagine it’s quite difficult to lead a club somewhat immersed in Perth’s illicit drug scene. I don’t blame Judd for bailing.

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