This week’s reading of BludgerTrack comes in 0.4% higher for Labor on two-party preferred than last weeks, but 0.3% of that shift is down to an overdue recalibration of pollster bias adjustments based on observation of recent state election results, which I’ll hopefully find time to discuss in more detail next week. The column on the sidebar showing change on last week reflects the result of the model as recalibrated, and not what was actually published. As such, it provides an accurate reflection of the impact of the one poll to be published in this week’s pre-budget lull, namely a result from Essential Research that was very slightly better for Labor than it looked. The seat projection has Labor two higher than the published result from last week, accounting for one seat in Queensland and one in South Australia. The recalibration has no bearing on the leadership results, for which Essential Research this week provided some extra data. This confirmed Tony Abbott’s very narrow lead as preferred prime minister, while perhaps suggesting a levelling off in the recent decline in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating.
rossmcg,
And, you are supposed to cross the road at the lights too!
Shorten is much better when he’s not being speechy. He started off speechy and became more natural as he went on.
Barney in Saigon
There are 2 different tax write off schemes. One for small business and one for farmers.
DN
Especially when he got some stupid questions.
It would be interesting to know how many LNP pollies may have “double dipped” on the family leave basis over the last five years.
I’m pretty sure Hockey’s wife had a child during this period and she is a professional within the Finance Industry.
collecting the pension overseas
http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budget/federal-budget-2015-pensioners-living-abroad-face-benefits-test-20150512-1mzjr3
Worth bearing in mind. if the Tories win again in 2016 I might leave.
lizzie
I assume that was in response to 152?
There was even one point, where he started speechifying again (ok, I’m not sure how to describe it better) then tripped over his words, that oddly enough had the positive side-effect of interrupting the speechiness and sending him back into natural mode.
[Roger Miller
Posted Thursday, May 14, 2015 at 11:31 am | Permalink
Barney in Saigon
There are 2 different tax write off schemes. One for small business and one for farmers.
]
Me bad, didn’t see that one, tyranny of distance.
In saying that how is it relevant when discussing the small business write-offs?
psyclaw@77
You have spelled it out with the utmost clarity comrade.
Even the most forgiving among us should now be able to see clearly what her game is.
[ Did that exchange really happen? Even by the low standards of Australian political reporting that is gobsmackingly stupid. ]
And thats actually a bit of a trap for Bowen he has to watch out for. I dont much like Bowen, but i have to say i am not unimpressed with his performance over the last few weeks. His delivery is getting better, but he has to be careful as its easy to get the impression he is talking down to people.
Of course, if he gets questions like that he should be talking down to the idiot journo, but has to be careful he’s not seen as talking down to the punters.
Big event for Shorten today. Much hangs on his speech.
Can anyone tell me what time (W.A. time) its on??
Re Shorten presser
Despite the terrible questions (including misrepresentations of what Shorten said a minute earlier), Shorten has picked up all the key points about what is wrong with this government’s performance to date.
There are two key things that will matter come the next election (indeed most elections):
– the competence of the government (and the Opposition)
– the trustworthiness of the man parties (or, to put it another way, how much effort will they put into hiding their contempt for the electorate when they renege on their promises).
As we get closer to the election, Shorten and the rest of the Opposition will be reminding the voters that Oppositions like that led by Abbott result in governments like that led by Abbott.
[ I’m pretty sure Hockey’s wife had a child during this period and she is a professional within the Finance Industry. ]
Would be interesting to see his reaction if the question is put to him directly.
DN
I get far more irritated when Cormann, Frydenberg et al drop into the well worn speeches about debt and deficit disaster. Each noun has at least two qualifying adjectives when Cormann speaks, and he’s like a toddler repeating phrases without understanding the meaning.
imacca @ 160
[Of course, if he gets questions like that he should be talking down to the idiot journo, but has to be careful he’s not seen as talking down to the punters.
Big event for Shorten today. Much hangs on his speech.]
I thought Shorten did pretty well in avoiding that trap – I liked the way he turned the misogyny question around so that it became an attack on the simplistic labelling of women on maternity leave as double dippers, rorters and fraudsters.
You are two hours behind the east – so the speech in reply should be at 5.30 pm.
imacca
Cormann deflected the same question about his wife by saying she obeyed the law at the time. Too easy. Would make the questioner look silly.
Tweeps really having fun at Joyce remarks
“@scottsues: fact: most dogs illegally enter Australia by plane. those who come by boat are turned away by Operation: Sovereign Border Collies”
[ and he’s like a toddler repeating phrases without understanding the meaning. ]
Yup. That was plain front and center when he did the Lateline interview with Alberici.
He had his script which included obvious bullshit. When he was called on it he tried simply repeating (a blocking move) expecting the interview to move on. When Alberici wouldn’t let it go without pinning him he started to get very uncomfortable, but isn’t quick enough to come up with a different line. Just rinse, repeat the script until the time runs down.
I’m sure many in the Libs see that as strong and steadfast. Actually its just ignorance, duplicity, and incompetence writ large.
lizzie,
It would expose Morrison’s comments about double dipping and rorting the system for the hypocrisy it is.
lizzie@143
Who was the journo?
There should be a special award for stupidity of such profundity.
lizzie
It’s the same trick trolls here use. Attack a group of people in vague fashion rather than single someone out. They spend a lot of time talking about people, but it’s difficult to pin them down on which people, exactly.
I bet if you asked about any single person on PPL, you could go through everyone one of them in Australia and it would always be someone else you haven’t gotten to yet that this government is talking about.
Having said that, they obviously feel they don’t need to play that game with those in the public service or unions. The Liberal echo chamber obviously tells them that everybody loves to have a go at unions and public servants.
@170
That should be “They spend a lot of time talking trash about people”.
bemused
[Who was the journo?]
Sorry, don’t know. They sounded like the second eleven. The top team (Uhlmann, Coorey) were questioning Cormann, I think.
[ I thought Shorten did pretty well in avoiding that trap – ]
That’s one thing i loved about Gillard, and seems to be a skill derived from the negotiation and practical working legal background often found on the ALP front bench. They can think on their feet. Doesn’t mean they always get it right under pressure, but often they do.
Compare and contrast with the likes of “shuddering brainlock ” Abbott and “i have my script” Corrman. 🙁
[ so the speech in reply should be at 5.30 pm. ]
Bugger. Have appointment for eye test. 🙁 Hopefully someone will youtube it this evening.
Anyone else notice the recent strategy of News Ltd in particular to describe nearly everything Shorten says as a “zinger”? At first it was short-hand for a bad/awkward attempt at humour. Now it seems to apply to every attempt at a media sound-bite.
Eg:
“Of course, it would not be the budget morning-after without a Bill Shorten zinger.
And the Opposition Leader was in full zinger mode this morning.
“A year ago today Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott were almost hysterical about debt, now they’re almost hysterical about the excuses for not dealing with debt,” he said.”
That doesn’t strike me as anything more than a pretty a pretty standard attempt at a sound-bite.
Since the media only really trades in sound-bites, this has become a concerted strategy to trivialise and mock everything he says.
[ Who was the journo?
There should be a special award for stupidity of such profundity. ]
I thought there already was? Isn’t it accreditation to the Canberra Press Gallery??
imacca
Unfortunately Turnbull is losing that ‘legal’ ability. In an extract of him I heard this morning, it really sounded as if he was making up his position on childcare as he went along. Started very weak then slowly sorted out what he wanted to say. Perhaps Peta isn’t sending him the right notes.
[ Unfortunately Turnbull is losing that ‘legal’ ability. ]
Mal mailines more of the Blue Kool Aid than ESJ, Mod and TBA combined. 🙁
Must be sad to be him at the moment.
Dont knock the Zinger meme.
Its what makes Shorto even remotely interesting to most people.
BU @ 174
It’s not just news Ltd. Katharine Murphy, who hates the zingers with a vengeance, calls Shorten the King of Zing on her blog this morning over at the Guardian.
I’ve never been bothered by the label – which, I think, actually started with Shaun Micallef’s Mad as Hell. I think that it both humanises Shorten and, more particularly, draws attention to the points he makes with the Dad humour. And he wants people to hear those points. The points themselves are important if they reflect how the voters are starting to feel, if not able to express clearly, about how the Government is performing.
There is a big difference between the approach of Shorten and that of Abbott – which perhaps reflects personality as well.
Shorten does what the best politicians do. Listen to the public vibe and put it into accessible language. He will play on the mean and tricky vibes that the public are now feeling; the abusive name calling that the public must be starting to tire of; and the sense of no coherent direction left with this government other than to save their own skins. These will resonate.
Abbott tells the public what to think and keeps repeating slogans until they naturalise into public thinking. You are seeing this now with the double-dipping and rorting terminology used to describe families accessing maternity leave entitlements, when the same people were lionised by Abbott (especially the higher income earners) as late as last Christmas.
I’ve been going on here – in response to attacks on Shorten and the Opposition about being too weak and the movement back to the government and Abbott in the opinion polls – that it will all mean nothing until the budget comes down. And now we are starting to see the real shape of the landscape ahead. I was not the only one predicting that, but it’s good to see my analysis being supported by events.
What a fraud Obama has turned out to be! From Avaaz:
The US government just gave oil giant Shell the go-ahead to drill in the pristine Arctic for oil, putting our climate and the ocean’s majestic wildlife under grave risk. But there’s a way we can stop this.
Before Shell can get to the Arctic, their monster ship needs to gear up in Seattle. But one man has the power to turn Shell away — Seattle’s green mayor Ed Murray. He’s already told Shell that they don’t have permission to service their rigs in Seattle, but they’ve essentially said that they’re coming whether the City likes it or not.
Now it’s up to Ed to decide whether to lay down or go all-in for the Arctic. We know he’s with us, but it takes real guts to stand up to one of the most powerful companies in history. And frankly, addressing climate change demands nothing short of that kind of bravery from everyday leaders. Let’s show Ed that the whole world stands with him and the people of Seattle in doing whatever it takes to say “Shell No!” to Arctic drilling — sign now:
https://secure.avaaz.org/en/shell_drilling_6/?bBTEAbb&v=58354
[Dont knock the Zinger meme.
Its what makes Shorto even remotely interesting to most people.]
It’s not the way I would put it – but it’s a pretty accurate zinger description.
Politics and policy is pretty complex stuff. Very few people have the time and ability to comprehend it all and make really well-informed judgements. So they rely on vibes, feelings, personal opinions of the key politicians (especially the leaders) to decide at the next election who will do the best job of governing.
The zingers attract attention to the content of the zingers – which is how Shorten gets the media to report what he says (which has always been a great problem for opposition leaders, with the exception of Three-Word-Slogan Tony) and thus be heard by the public whose only information comes from tuning into the 6pm news.
All today, Coalition politicians have been salivating over the prospect that they may soon be able to nail the next GBNT label to Shorten.
Agree, TPOF. It makes Shorto look like a nerd, who has an alternative vision, is probably across the detail, but amusingly inept at summarising it.
Australians are not unhappy to vote for nerds.
What Shorto cant do, in my opinion, is be a small target. The ZINGER! should always point to the policy gulf. It doesnt matter how crummy they are, in some ways, crummy is the trademark. Dad joke style.
I just voted for Mark Butler for ALP President. When do the libs vote for theirs??
[What Shorto cant do, in my opinion, is be a small target.]
I totally agree. But that does not mean parading in front of the Government and the idiot journos of the press gallery with a great big bullseye in the middle of the forehead.
Shorten has been positioning himself as the anti-Abbott. It is critical to that position that he and Labor come up with policies that can be entrenched before the next election (assuming it is near the end of 2016) – unlike Abbott who talked about them but did not actually have any up to the day of the election. But to have trotted them out before now would have had little political benefit, run the risk of becoming obsolete before the election and given the Liberals and their press baron mate plenty of time to craft a misleading FUD campaign against them.
I remember plenty of times over the years when Labor Oppositions would release policy after policy that would not be reported at all unless the Coalition government found some way of misrepresenting it.
By keeping quiet in the first half of the electoral cycle and letting a press gallery herd mentality demand for policies build up, Shorten and Labor have actually created an audience for their policy releases which they otherwise would not have had. And even as they keep releasing policies over the course of the next 12 months, the press gallery will ask the same tired question and Labor can point to this or that policy that has been released and ask the journalist if they can tell the difference between a policy and chopped liver.
I see the hand of ALP National Secretary George Wright in this. Possibly the most strategic national secretary of a political party in years. And strategic is what it is.
Afternoon.
Big thanks to lizzie for re-posting my questions from the last thread. For a few hours there I thought I’d gone completely under the radar!
But to put my questions about the new ‘Netflix Tax’ succinctly, my problem with it is that the Australian Government and the ACCC do not have the powers to either discourage or punish overseas companies who try to use this ‘Netflix Tax’ to push up prices, by applying GST to everything they use in Australia. (e.g. website maintenance, Australian server costs, publisher rights, reserved bandwidth, etc.)
That is, the overseas companies start trying a pull a ‘carbon tax costs’ with regards to the GST.
lefty e@90
Yeah, best not to let the idea that some might be rorting the system take seed, hey Arfur?
[ All today, Coalition politicians have been salivating over the prospect that they may soon be able to nail the next GBNT label to Shorten. ]
That is i think one of the few certainties in the near term political situation. The Libs HAVE to defend their position of NOT pursuing meaningful revenue measures, and the ALP HAVE to pursue meaningful revenue measures to be seen as credible.
That said, the GBNT meme may have outlived its usefulness. The Libs have set up a situation where GBNT is going to be judged against Great Big Spending Cuts.
The disadvantage for the ALP is that they have to run a more nuanced argument that the Libs in this context. But…I dont think that is a crippling disadvantage.
Re the GBNT
Is reining in the massive superannuation concessions that disproportionately benefit those who will never call on the old age pension a new tax or a new spending cut.
Surely a tax concession is government spending! You are effectively paying someone back a portion of the tax they have to pay. So Labor should call this measure – and others like it – spending cuts!
Cormann was trying the line: Labor are the big spenders and their new policies are only concerned with raising income. Big spenders boo! Big taxers boo!
I hope that Bowen can come up with a nuanced answer to this – possibly a three word phrase so that Lib voters can understand it???
BK@94
I am feeling relatively confident about the budget reply. I am not in the ‘Shorten is hopeless’ camp (though I agree his real test is about to begin).
There is certainly plenty of good material for Labor to work with, courtesy of The Tones & Joe Perpetual Trainwreck Show.
lizzie
How about, “Liberals in Glasshouses…”
lizzie@191: Worse Than Howard?
I don’t think Labor should play tricky word game – that’s simply going with the government’s framing that this is all about tax – but they should point out this government’s tricky word games.
Rather, what they need to make clear is that this isn’t a fight over tax, it’s a fight over what we value as a people. Do we value our own education, our health, fairness? Do we believe that those are the foundation of our future prosperity? Then we should invest in those things.
What this government is doing is not merely cutting funding, funding is just the mechanism by which we support our values, what they are cutting is education, health, fairness, and our pathway to future prosperity for the sake of short term self interest and in the name of false economy.
The liberals GBNT is the extra taxing of the mining workers.
Abbott has got rid of the tax on the mining companies and replaced it with one on the mining workers.
Next up on the hit list will be ADF deployed overseas, the ultimate FIFO, and regional allowances for nurses, aid workers and students.
No, it’s better if its: “Liberals in Glass Mansions…”
TPOF,
I’m not 100% but I would say that since treasury calls these things tax expenditures they might appear on the expenses side of the ledger? If so Labor should just point to the relevant page in the budget and say even Hockey agrees it’s a spending cut not a new tax.
No, it’s better if its: “Liberals in Glass Mansions…”
No, it’s better if its: “Liberals in Glass Mansions…”