BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Very little doing on the polling front in the week before the budget, except for one further piece of evidence that Tony Abbott’s personal standing is on the mend.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack comes in 0.4% higher for Labor on two-party preferred than last weeks, but 0.3% of that shift is down to an overdue recalibration of pollster bias adjustments based on observation of recent state election results, which I’ll hopefully find time to discuss in more detail next week. The column on the sidebar showing change on last week reflects the result of the model as recalibrated, and not what was actually published. As such, it provides an accurate reflection of the impact of the one poll to be published in this week’s pre-budget lull, namely a result from Essential Research that was very slightly better for Labor than it looked. The seat projection has Labor two higher than the published result from last week, accounting for one seat in Queensland and one in South Australia. The recalibration has no bearing on the leadership results, for which Essential Research this week provided some extra data. This confirmed Tony Abbott’s very narrow lead as preferred prime minister, while perhaps suggesting a levelling off in the recent decline in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

371 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 8
1 … 4 5 6 … 8

  2. Millinenial. Netflix’s market power will limit anyone trying to gouge them. In terms of Netflix itself, it is in a tight margin market and prices it’s service very carefully.

  4. Shorten criticised the last budget’s ‘fairness'(correctly) so the Lib spinmeisters have turned that back on to Labor by naming this new budget as fair. Very clever well-known trick.

    I’m not suggesting word games (although Libs play them all the time), but some sophisticated framing and labelling is needed to beat this mob.

  5. Re Pensioners and overseas travel. Immigration share data with Centrelink. Centrelink know if you lea’ve the country unless you can do it witout showing your oz passport. Might be different for dual citizens but I suspect you’d still be detecteed on your way back in.

  6. They should of course point out that this government is all talk about lowering taxes and spending and that they really have no problems taxing and spending.

    That, however, should bring us directly to the question of what they are hiding, and what they are hiding is that this is really a fight between values and priorities.

  7. [ I’m not 100% but I would say that since treasury calls these things tax expenditures they might appear on the expenses side of the ledger? If so Labor should just point to the relevant page in the budget and say even Hockey agrees it’s a spending cut not a new tax. ]

    Agreed. Call them out on GBNT being Bullshit early and often. The GBNT meme cant be dismissed or ignored (its the kind of simplistic bollocks the TBA’s of the world lap up) but it can be countered.

    Pin the libs as tricky with words liars. doGs know there is enough examples of that.

    And run hard on the Libs Great Big Unfair Spending Cuts, coming to a state hospital near you soonest.

  8. [Cormann was trying the line: Labor are the big spenders and their new policies are only concerned with raising income. Big spenders boo! Big taxers boo!

    I hope that Bowen can come up with a nuanced answer to this – possibly a three word phrase so that Lib voters can understand it???]

    the answer to it is that Labor has only once come close to spending as much (as %age of gdp) as the Libs will for each year of their government and every year in the forward estimates and that was a single year at the height of the GFC.

    Labor also has never ever come close to raising as much revenue as the Libs will for each year of their government and every year of the forward estimates.

    To simplify that down into simple sound bites – The Liberals are the big taxers, the Liberals are the big spenders.

    Get some of those big charts Howard was so fond of made up showing spending and revenue and make sure you hammer these simple facts over and over.

    Tax will always be lower under a Labor government.

  9. nappin

    Oh, sorry, that wasn’t what I meant. What I meant was I was worried that online companies that use online goods (e.g. eBay, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Sony etc.) may try to gouge money out of its consumers, not out of Netflix itself, by using the ‘Netflix Tax’ (I probably should be calling it that, since it applies to all online purchases) as a justification for much higher prices.

  11. The Coalition use the language of tax and arguments over tax to push through and gain implicit acceptance of their values and priorities.

    Before you know it, it becomes necessary to cut this or that out of the system, reprioritise, and by extension, cut this or that from, and reprioritise, what we value.

  14. Darn@120

    I know most Labor supporters here will not agree with this but if an early election is called I think the best outcome for Labor would be a very narrow win to the Libs, preferably reducing them to a minority government.

    A bare Coalition majority in the reps with a skeptical, even hostile, Abbott-shy senate would not be an unreasonable outcome for the forces of good.

  16. Millinenial

    I see you have been fast in the welcome to PB blocks with the multiple posts already.

    As for Netflix Tax that is a term coined either by the LNP or the media and wrong in reality.

    Netflix can appear on the bill of local ISP and thus GST apply.

    The one thing that will stop overseas companies applying higher prices for Australia is the same one that will get them going to VPN is the price being too high knowing the overseas charge as long as cheaper than the dollar difference.

  17. Millinenial. The Netflix tax is just that, a tax directly on Netflix. Google, Apple and other similar online providers do already actually pay/charge GST… Not all, but most. ie. The gouging would already occur.

  19. shellbell

    he has specified a length of time for the leave. Suggests he is keeping options open, or questions to a minimum.

  20. Millinenial
    We don’t have to worry about companies gouging the “Netflix Tax”, we already have the Australia Tax.
    itunes us price 99c
    itunes Australia price $2.19 (including 20c GST)
    does it really cost that much more to send the bits across the ocean?

  23. Perhaps those suggesting Labor kind of just lose the next election to give the LNP another three hard years in government and themselves three more years in opposition, check out any member of parliament – on either side – who would prefer opposition to government?

    Government with any kind of majority is better than opposition.

  24. A surprising tone from this Telegraph opinion piece. Article very much speaking to the “aspirationals”.

    [What are parents meant to do now?

    The government’s decision to stop its parental leave — to stop us greedy women from ‘double dipping’ as was so poetically coined by Treasurer Joe Hockey on Mother’s Day — is one that is going to hurt a lot of families already struggling to procreate and survive in one of the most expensive cities in the world.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/what-are-parents-meant-to-do-now/story-fnpug1jf-1227352078688

  25. [Carmody won’t be back]

    There will need to be a lot of walking on eggshells here should he never come back. The alst thing the Qld government needs is for them to be evenly remotely perceived as giving him the push. That would look like interfering with judicial independence and it would blow up in their faces big time.

  26. [To simplify that down into simple sound bites – The Liberals are the big taxers, the Liberals are the big spenders.]

    I like it, ratsak 🙂

    How about: “When it comes to the Libs and taxes, watch what they do, not what they say.”

    Not quite calling them outright liars.

  27. RM

    I have mentioned previously about some clever people who have successfully imported their home appliances and even tiles and toilets and not only avoided the Australia Tax but also the various taxes charged in the countries they purchased from (they still pay GST at the dock).

    Whingepool have a forum dedicated to the process if you are interested.

  28. Oh trust me, I know all too well about the Australia Tax, but I like to call it the ‘Having the Nicest Beaches’ Tax.

  30. nappin #217
    I don’t think it applies just to Netflix, because in the Budget 2015 papers it says that the GST is, “extended to cross border supplies of digital products and services imported by consumers”.

    But then again, the current government has given us nothing to believe in them to date, so why should we start believing them now?

  32. Tricot 223

    Not saying that is the preferred situation, just not a bad one if it results in the Coalition doing themselves serious permanent harm to their ill deserved reputation as superior economic managers.

    Killing that myth is one of the two big political stumbling blocks Labor must deal with. (The other being the role of the unions in Labor.)

  33. Sorry Millinenial, my comment comes from hearing Peter Marks on RN this morning. Interestingly, I don’t usually think much of what he says.

  34. Poroti:
    The key premise in that article is the price of housing. Many problems in this country can be traced back to the cost of land. Fix that, and we’d all be much better.

  35. guytaur
    Thanks for welcoming me!

    But I don’t think I personally will need to worry too much. I get mostly my online content through a digital distribution centre called Steam; and they don’t have the Australian dollar, just the US dollar; so I don’t think that they can charge the Online GST (that’s what I calling it now instead of Netflix Tax) until they do introduce the Australian dollar.

  37. bbpseph @ 225

    Palaszczuk has played it very well saying it is a matter for the court.

    Carmody has been absolutely beset by extraordinary criticism from his judicial colleagues, both current and erstwhile. Even for someone with a very thick skin, it is hard to see this as not having a devastating effect on him.

    The power of the Government is very limited anyway, given statutory provisions that reinforce the separation of powers principle. So any pressure put on him by the government would actually be a relief for him because it could move the issue away from him and his fitness for the job.

  39. Carmody is not fit on every level to resume.

    The Qld government defends the institution of the Supreme Court when it says as much since the Court, through the judges, are of that view.

  41. Re the ‘Netflix’ tax

    I have no problems at all in principle with ensuring that the GST is charged on everyone. The problem is that the demands for it to be charged on physical imports are more to ensure that the expensive process of collecting the tax becomes a much greater deterrent to avoiding the ‘Australia tax’ than the GST itself. And that is the aim of retailers.

    I’m not subscribing to Foxtel or Netflix, but I would have no problem in paying the appropriate tax for Netflix if it can be collected cheaply (which it can compared to items physically imported into the country). Indeed, the only question is whether the tax can be enforced, not whether it is readily collectible.

  44. Never mind bonding or breast-feeding. Our babies can eat the bacon we bring home in what will be an important lesson in work ethics, financial responsibility and chewing.

    The ones hit hardest will be new mums with multiple births, twins triplets, or with other young kids.

    The extra 18 weeks saved them $9,000 child care fees for 1 kid taking into account the child care rebate, multiple kids they are big time losers.

    Abbott is out to kill PPL same as the libs hate super for the workers and medicare.

  45. Boris

    Abbott and the Tories just hate workers. Full stop.

    Whenever they speak the conversation invariably gets around to how working people are overpaid and not productive and have too many perks.

    The only thing a Tory hates more than a worker is an unemployed worker.

  46. [She says she is a medical doctor, therefore she is presumably very intelligent.]

    I’ve met an awful lot of doctors who aren’t intelligent, let alone very intelligent (although ModLib is intelligent).

  47. Simon
    I have experienced the pleasures of avoiding the Australia Tax, including the weird experience of buying an Australian made product from The US cheaper than I could purchase the same item in Oz.

Comments Page 5 of 8
1 … 4 5 6 … 8

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *