Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be one of the final results from the Newspoll organisation finds both major parties down on the primary vote, but with Labor’s two-party preferred lead slightly up on the previous result.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.

Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United – the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of “some form of action” against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,161 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 22 23 24
  1. [Top Stories: LNP hands out stories for journalists to copy and paste ]

    Nothing new here — ABC has been cutting and pasting LNP pressers since Abbott assumed the leadership in 2009 or so…! And they’re even better at lifting stuff from the Murdoch press…

  2. Diversity of past and present Green leadership:

    a gay man, a woman, an Italian descended man. Looks pretty diverse and balanced. Especially if the next leader is a woman!

    What about Labor… white man, white man, white man .. many more white men… woman, white man, white man…

    Liberal? white man, white man, white man, white man, white man…many many more white men…

    If it were up to the Greens to singlehandedly bring better gender diversity to the whole parliament they would have to stand only women. I think they do a good job of handling diversity within the party and better than every single other party in the country.

  3. Pleased to say this is good and deserves appreciation from everyone with compassion and common sense.

    “@shanebazzi: Draft of ALP national platform: Labor believes that as a country Australia must not harm people #asylum”

  4. The point about the DailyTelegraph story is that they have run a HUGE campaign to slag off SBS in the last few days. Couple this with their nasty “anti-dole-and-disability bludger” stuff of the past year or so, and now they are getting payback.

    Seems the good people of Western Sydney hate the Mt. Druitt-ites as much as SBS is supposed to. The Daily Tele’s crap from the past is backfiring on them big time.

    So far most commenters think the people IN the show are a disgrace, not the show itself.

  5. Luke Hulm

    [I think they do a good job of handling diversity within the party and better than every single other party in the country.]

    Diversity within the party? They have one of the blandest whitebread line up of MPs of any party. Even Clive managed to have an Asian candidate.

    Both the majors have MPs who are openly gay, of indigenous descent, a wide arrange of migrants from diverse backgrounds – Labor also has a Muslim MP.

    They ended up with MPs of diverse backgrounds because the respective memberships are also diverse…whereas most of the Greens I know on the ground look pretty much like the Greens MPs – white, middle class professionals.

  6. [As someone else said, we have three or four other parties that haveno trouble digging up straight white men to lead them — why have the Grees gone down this path?]

    Perhaps they just don’t buy the argument that it’s their job to try and balance the ethnic/gender/sexual orientation mix when choosing their leaders.

  7. [guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, May 6, 2015 at 10:47 pm | PERMALINK

    Given how many women voted for Di Natalie as leader you certainly can’t say its sexism at work.]

    I agree. To me it sounds like democracy at work.

  8. zoomster

    Well Larissa Waters chose not to contest for leader and just go for deputy instead.

    Same applies to the other women that option was open to them.

  9. guytaur

    I’m fascinated that you know what went on inside the Greens party room.

    Lee Rhiannon said she didn’t know a leadership spill was happening until she was in the room.

    Scarcely gave anyone time to think about whether they wanted to contest, let alone lobby for the position.

    It’d be interesting to know if Di Natale was similarly taken by surprise.

    Again, if a major had done this – had a leader resign and only allowed a few hours before voting in a new one – there’d be major conspiracy theories running. People seem remarkably accepting of the whole situation.

  10. [BB

    Why was the daily slagging off SBS re struggle street?]

    Anti-Western Sydney: Daily Tele’s self-appointed heartland.

  11. Zoomster, Larissa Walters on Lateline IV with T Jones, pointedly, didnt deny she knew a spill was being discussed. Just the usual spin about democratic will of the party prevailing. No difference from the ALP and LNP. Disingenuous to claim otherwise.

  12. zoomster

    Its self evident no one stood against Di Natalie.

    Therefore you can deduce no woman stood against him. This was their choice for whatever reason.

    My comment was not about the media whinge or public reaction just that you could not say it’s sexism.

    I am not getting into the process thing. For the Greens its working just as for Labor its process is working.

    I still think Shorten is a good leader. Not a damp squib as many seem to think. They have forgotten Shorten of Beaconsfield doing media cut through with common sense and fear a change of leader making Shorten ineffective.

    I think Shorten leading Labor and Di Natalie leading the Greens is bad news for Abbott which is part of the media whinge about leadership. Anything to make Abbot look good

  13. Rossmore

    With the majors, if a leader resigns, there is a clear period – a matter of days for the Liberals, an election period for Labor – between the announcement of the resignation and the leadership ballot.

    With the majors, when a politician tells the public they’ve resigned to spend more time with their family (a) everyone knows that’s bollocks and (b) usually there’s something very nasty behind it.

    So there’s huge differences between the way the majors operate and what happened with the Greens today.

    Now, I’m not necessarily saying that things are not what they seem – just that usually there’d be far more questioning about what went on.

  14. [Suspect this could be the most significant poll of recent days in the UK…. a decisive shift to the ALP on poll eve in London….]

    The ALP is going to win in the UK!!!!!!!

    If only they could win here, but we don’t need Ed, Bill is bad enough.

  15. [ People seem remarkably accepting of the whole situation. ]

    Maybe cause its the Greens people dont care that much?? 🙂


    [ I think Shorten leading Labor and Di Natalie leading the Greens is bad news for Abbott which is part of the media whinge about leadership. Anything to make Abbot look good ]

    I’d agree with that. The media will be sooooooooooooooooo pissed that this event and Di Natalie’s treatment of them today really shows up that they are not players and only insiders IF the pollies think they can find them useful.

    I suspect under Di Natale it will be situation normal. Lib Govt rants, raves, and bitches at everyone in the Senate not Liberal, ALP Govt will just negotiate stuff with enough changes to get through.

    Expect much bitchiness from the media about this until the bright shiny thing of polishing the budget turd is tasked to them next week.

  16. Zoomster

    I don’t think anything fishy behind the resignation in this case but I would have liked (and think it would have been better) for the Greens to have left a similar period to Lib/Lab in determining their next leader.

    At the very least it would have brought desperately needed additional exposure to the Greens as the media would have lined up to interview Ludlam, Bantt, Dinatale etc

    Sometimes leadership speculation isn’t a bad thing!

  17. Zoomster, 1119 agree.

    The Greens claiming this was a smooth, happy clap transition to Di Natalie was disingenuous. It was all about power, the exercise of power and marginalising opponents. That’s the inevitable nature of politics.

    But to claim otherwise, to claim this was an uncontested transition, occurring in a palace coup over a couple of hours, as the Greens are claiming is a sham and they need to be called out for it.

  18. Rossmore

    What basis do you have for your assertion other than your ‘gut feeling’ or assumption?

    As far as I can see you have no evidence for what you have said. If you have it please spell it out – and tell us, would it stand up in court?

  19. I must admit that I don’t buy into the “Poor sad Bill” notion, for the following reasons:

    1) Under his leadership, the ALP’s done (and is still doing) phenomenally-well in the polls for a first-term Opposition. Why replace him?

    2) It seems entirely too convenient that known Liberal trolls (ESJ, here on PB) are choosing right now, ahead of what’s likely to be another shocker of a Budget, to raise the issue. It’s a red herring.

    3) Ditching Shorten would only feed right back into the “Labor can’t lead themselves – why trust them to lead the country?!” meme. Sorry, not interested. I’m no great fan of Labor, but I’ll take them ahead of any Liberal Government any day of the week.

  20. WWP … as a Pom I am mortified by my post at 1116 claiming the ALP may win the UK election. There again, iI suppose t perhaps signifies my final and complete assimilation, after 25 years here.

  21. Has anyone done any corporate team building exercises (or psychology at uni)?

    There are many different personality types. Some people are motivated by power but many are not. It is possible to have groups of people where there is not an individual who is motivated by power (people that are of the type that desire power though find this difficult to believe).

    Yes this is rare in business, also rare in elite political circles – but the Greens are not a typical group.

    Why not? The policy motivations come from a different place as do the members. They party attracts different personality types to the others. This is backed up by research.


    Looks like daH Poodle has definitely taken his bitch pills.

    [ “They put their forebears in Che Guevara and Fidel Castro to shame today because this was a revolution that took less than an hour,” the education minister told Sky News. ]

    So has he thought this through? In a couple of weeks he could be, seriously, looking at the real prospect of his own leader being knifed.

  23. E.g. the degree that one leans left or right has a psychological basis as much as it does a cultural/socioeconomic basis.

  24. Jeez a lot of people are making up shit based on nothing, flapping their gums in the general direction of the Greens when a more careful think would reveal that their mumblings are based on baseless prejudices.

    For example:
    Count the number of MPS in Oz, either Federal or state or both… and then do a gender count.
    The Greens have the best, most equitable spread.
    Then the ALP.
    COALition a long way last.

    Yet people are mouthing off against the Greens about gender without acknowledging their party [whichever] is…WORSE.

    It gets boring.

  25. Luke Hulm. 1129. It was my opinion, based on the reporting today of the transition from Milne announcing she was standing down to the announcement of a new leader two hours later. If it looks and smells like a carefully orchestrated planned event, smells like a carefully orchestrated, planned event, well it probably is.

    Get over it. But dont claim it was a natural happy clapping, osmosis transition to a new smiling, great leader.

  26. [ 1) Under his leadership, the ALP’s done (and is still doing) phenomenally-well in the polls for a first-term Opposition. Why replace him? ]

    There is no reason. MSM beat up and to distract from Abbott’s tenuous hold on the big chair.

    [ 2) It seems entirely too convenient that known Liberal trolls (ESJ, here on PB) are choosing right now, ahead of what’s likely to be another shocker of a Budget, to raise the issue. It’s a red herring. ]

    Its a moron.

    [ 3) Ditching Shorten would only feed right back into the “Labor can’t lead themselves – why trust them to lead the country?!” meme. ]

    A statement of the blindingly obvious thats been said here before that apparently objects like ESJ are completely incapable of comprehending. Its curious.

  27. SBS has this amazing – in a weird, sort of cringeing way – Dutch Reality TV show on now called Adam and Two Eves.

    One bloke, two women on a desert island, naked and sunburnt. He has to choose which one is his “Eve”.

    He is a total tosser, and I haven’t seen enough of the girls to figure them out.

    Spooky show. Rock bottom of the genre.

  28. “They put their forebears in Che Guevara and Fidel Castro to shame today because this was a revolution that took less than an hour,” the education minister told Sky News.”
    Is that longer than the education minister took to drop everything he told us he stood for?

  29. [ They put their forebears in Che Guevara and Fidel Castro to shame today because this was a revolution that took less than an hour,” the education minister told Sky News.” ]
    Is that longer than the education minister took to drop everything he told us he stood for?

  30. Rossmore

    Your statement was pretty cutting and definite and yet you admin your evidence is ‘its just what it looks like’.

    When I ‘think something looks like something but have no other evidence’ I usually try to present a more balanced analysis – but that’s just me.

    For instance I would agree – IF the Greens have attracted typical politicians into their fold I think what you have stated would be highly likely because you are right – it is very typical political behaviour.

    But if the Greens are not typical politicians – and from my experience they are not – then what would be typical of other politicians may not be typical of them.

    I would count out what you assume as a possibility – if more evidence comes to light and it is exposed just as you say I would not be shocked – but it would surprise me – the Greens I know are very, very heartfelt about what they do and they are almost always involved in the party for social justice and environmental reasons and very rarely for personal gain (although I am not saying that such things are not present at all).

  31. I watched Struggle Street till about halfway until my Mum changed the channel.

    It was nothing like the promo. I got from it a sense of people trying their best in a situation of poverty.

    The couple had their lives ruined when they were sent to gaol for 12 months when the husband shared some ‘weed’ with an undercover police officer in a sting. It was his wife being charged and sent to gaol that seemed to distress him the most, leaving their kids with no parents. He said he was the user, not her, and she never ever did anything illegal in all her life. He said it had an dramatic impact on her and the family. So the war on drugs claimed another family.

    They are dealing with a chronic unemployment in the family, seven of the children without jobs. One son has a acquired brain injury , another an addiction to Ice. This addiction is having placing a tremendous strain on the family.

    So this family is dealing with the fall-out of the war on drugs, chronic lack of employment, issues related to disability and caring roles and inadequate income and social supports.

    I think they are coping really well, in the situation they were in. I see a family with strong bonds, resilience, and obvious love and caring.

    The house was in good order, and their dogs were well cared for and obviously part of the family. They were articulate, and understood the challenges they faced.

    The aboriginal man was interesting, again someone who has taken his situation and applied his existing skills to survive. He is very self aware and rightly proud of his achievements. Again dogs are important companions. He said it was important he fed his dogs even if he went hungry. He was proud of how fat his little dog was. His older dog probably needed some vet attention, from the way he was walking but how can this man afford the outrageous vet fees charged in Australia?

    Finding accomodation when you are homeless and will not surrender your dogs to the RSPCA is very difficult, especially with the blanket bans on pets enforced by many of the big and small real estate agents.

    He mentioned being wanted by the police, so legal problems and housing have dictated his living arrangements. He also mentioned he was a loner but he reckons he would have been happier in the Aboriginal lands before white man came. I can only agree with him.

    I think the series has merit, but only if people approach it as a way of gaining understanding. The promo was shocking. It did its job by getting attention, but has it set people up to watch it in a judgmental way heavy with condemnation? Or can we get past that to consider the social, economic and educational policies which shape people’s lives and how their futures are going to be effected by the direction our country takes?

    We could start with what I consider.on the information provided, to be the ground zero of disaster for this family, the ridiculous and harmful War on Drugs.

  32. Dickhead Jorn (Danish, I think, not Dutch) got jilted by his Eve.

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer tosser. Real reality strikes.

  33. Trog Sorrenson@937

    I am now officially a member of the Greens.

    Nothing against Christine Milne, but I think the new leadership team will have broad appeal. Di Natale’s presser was exceptional.

    So goodbye prevaricating pussy party – Labor.

    Commiserations! 👿

    The ALP will be there when you grow up and want to join an adult party.

  34. Luke Hulm, here’s the alternative scenario.

    To a shocked Parliamentary team, including her closest and presumably closest front bench colleagues, Senator Milne announces her totally unexpected resignation in a Tweet. Within two hours, two hours for gods sake, her Parliamentary colleagues agree unanimously on a successor. Cameras roll and new Green leadership team front the cameras, all smiles.

    If that wasnt carefully planned and war gamed by the protagonists, then the Pope isnt a Catholic.

  35. I would say it looks unusual – but doesn’t the fact her colleagues were unanimous in their election of a successor show that their was no internal division?

    Or else – that the division would have to be the whole team against Christine Milne.

    Surely if none of the sitting greens go to the media and spill the beans in the next two weeks we either have to go with that – or else it really was a genuine resignation and election with no hidden agenda whatsoever.

    Why I think Christine’s story holds up:

    I believe party and policy success means more to her than her own position.
    I believe she genuinely didn’t want to see out another election and senate term.

    Given those two points – the only choice was to step down – as a leadership change much later would have hamstrung the Greens election approach in 2016.

    Now I think she would have been better doing it another way – politically there would have been an advantage in setting a future date – and saying she would step down in June or July etc – and giving more time for media exposure and attention to the potential Green leaders.
    But the Greens do not always play politics well, and play things out without thinking how they will be politically or publicly received.

  36. Kenny writes, concerning the new Greens leader:

    [The change in the Greens’ leadership offers the Prime Minister at least some opportunity to cast a new relationship with the third force in Australian politics. Of course, it wil never be close and will rarely even be cooperative, but even a small improvement in the atmospherics in Canberra will be pay dividends. And it will be noticed by voters, too.]

    Echos of his comment re. Gillard’s New Delhi “shoe malfunction”. Kenny said it would be noticed by the voters too.

    He made sure of that.

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 22 23 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *