Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be one of the final results from the Newspoll organisation finds both major parties down on the primary vote, but with Labor’s two-party preferred lead slightly up on the previous result.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.

Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United – the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of “some form of action” against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,161 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. I would in fact say the Greens do not ‘wargame’ their actions and that is why they sometimes snooker themselves.
    The original scuttling of the Lab/Lib ETS may well be an example of such.

  2. It has been said before but I think a good case can be made that each of the parties could be split in two.

    Labor into a Union party and centrist/left democrat style party. (splitting along Union lines)

    Liberals into social moderates and ultra conservatives. (splitting along social policy lines)

    Greens along hard left and centrist economic lines.

    I don’t think the above divisions have really played out yet but I’d watch the medium to long term future for all 3 parties.

  3. [
    Soccer: would be a better game if the widened the goals by a metre each side, did away with goalies altogether, and paid 2 points for any goal that was scored on the full, and 3 points for goals kicked from more than 30 metres away.
    Sorry Bill, that’s a load of tosh.

    Why do normally sane persons feel the need to improve an activity they obviously don’t appreciate?

    Points are for the audience: goals are what count.

  4. Just on that – if you took the right of the Greens, the right of the Labour Party and the social moderates of the Liberals and put them all in a room I think we’d find that they could probably agree and hammer out good effective policy and actually would command the majority of the voting public and the majority of the seats in parliament.

    Such a grouping would have fairly orthodox economic policy, support an ETS and gradual activity around climate change, support science and education and social welfare but without disregarding the economics of such a function, would support changes to the extremes of workers entitlements ($50 an hour weekend hospitality rates might become $30 (not $15)) and might just be able to tackle some of the negative gearing and superannuation rorts in a mild and gradual way.

    It wouldn’t be exactly where my politics lie but I think it would be much better than any government that we’re likely to get in the next 10 years.

  5. Matt @ 1130

    I agree wholeheartedly with all three points.

    What really gets to me is the number of people, including some purported Labor supporters plus the journalist class, trying to generate leadersh1t drama when it is not a simple matter anymore of undermining the Labor leader and talking on and on until he (or she) is replaced.

    There is a very difficult hurdle to overcome for anyone seeking to hostilely replace a Labor leader – at least 60% of the caucus need to vote to replace him – and then it goes back to a combined membership/caucus vote for a new leader. There simply is not any value in an ambitious wannabe trying to undermine him.

  6. With their declared entry into the “mainstream” of Australian politics it remains to be seen whether the Greens will transfer their interactive policy of prodding, goading, holier than thou carping, taking credit for the larger party’s achievements whilst providing no support & walking away when it suits them to the coalition.
    I doubt they’ll manage that, or even try. Abbott’s lot are far too malicious to let them get away with what they managed with Gillard. So it’ll be back to business as usual, the poaching of Labor votes with blue sky ideology.
    A good start was made today, with the appropriation of Labor’s opposition to so much of what Abbott’s done & tried to do.

  7. [guytaur

    Posted Wednesday, May 6, 2015 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Pleased to say this is good and deserves appreciation from everyone with compassion and common sense.

    “@shanebazzi: Draft of ALP national platform: Labor believes that as a country Australia must not harm people #asylum”
    If this passes will that also mean the ALP won’t deploy our troops for aggressive military purposes?

    I certainly hope so.

  8. Confessions (some while back),

    [LOL. I’ve often said the two embrace that whole inner city, uniquely Melbourne look.]

    I think Di Natale is actually based out of Geelong 😛

  9. zoom

    [Lee Rhiannon said she didn’t know a leadership spill was happening until she was in the room.]

    It was not actually a ‘spill’. Milne resigned.

    And ‘Lee Rhiannon said she didn’t know a leadership spill was happening until she was in the room’ – She wouldn’t know that her underpants were on fire.

  10. zoomster

    It helps if you think of factions as friendship groups

    Do you ever read what you write and just shake your head and laugh at yourself?

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