GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.
Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.
UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of some form of action against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.