GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.
Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.
UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United – the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of “some form of action” against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.
Bye bye Billy. No cut through!
So which way do you adjust Newspoll?
Happiness’ comments and confusion on the fixed phase period of the carbon “never a tax fool” price converting into the floating traded period of the carbon “never a tax fool” price is priceless and i go to bed full of laughter and happiness.
Labor up 52-48, with Hockey budget to come. Fine.
ESJ
😆 at your troll attempt. Labor in front again. LNP behind has now been going for a year.
No need for Labor to change leader not that they show any sign of doing so.
If Galaxy is going to run the Newspoll, why don’t they just combine the resources allocated to the two separate polls and run one big poll with a smaller MOE?
[Now he wants to use that cachet to enter the mass market – in home energy systems with solar and storage. While the impact of the Tesla Model S on the global motor industry was considered to be something of a slow burn, the impact of Tesla Energy’s battery storage system, the PowerWall. is likely to be dramatic.
It changes everything. In one fell swoop, Tesla has cut the cost of stationary battery storage by more than half, delivering disruption to the doorsteps of incumbent utilities and fossil fuel generators that most did not imagine would emerge for at least another decade.
Deutsche Bank says the Tesla lithium-ion battery pricing ($US3,500 for a 10kWh system) translates – after inverter costs and installation – to a price of $US500/kWh, less than half the industry wide costs of $US1,000-$US1,250/kWh. (See full pricing here and our other stories: Did Tesla just kill nuclear power, and Tesla just put a bomb under business model of the grid.)
What it means for the consumer – and conventional energy providers – is that the combination of rooftop solar and lithium ion battery storage is now cheaper than the grid – particularly in places with high electricity costs and good sun, and that means countries like Australia.]
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/tesla-battery-storage-will-accelerate-exit-of-coal-generators-88203
Silly guytaur, federal goats lose emphatically , not.by small margins. Small leads 18 months out mean failure.
I just wish both major parties would get on with their leadership changes.
[WeWantPaul
Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 10:44 pm | PERMALINK
Happiness’ comments and confusion on the fixed phase period of the carbon “never a tax fool”]
Is the “never a tax fool” directed at Rudd when he campaigned on “Axe the tax”?
Or is it addressed at Gillard who declared it was a tax?
Or is it addressed at the relevant Minister (Combet) who called it a tax?
What was the last published poll to have the LNP ahead?
ESJ
Silly ESJ we know entrenched polls mean election result. Entrenched lead to Labor for a year. Thats fact. Its going to take dramatic action to change that and Abbott does not appear to have the ability.
A new leader is going to have to cope with they dumped the leader after campaigning on not dumping leaders. The whole chaos thing.
Shorten isn’t going anywhere, the ALP know that the public want party leadership to be stable. As we all know disunity is death in politics.
I know Labor could come out with a cost of living imitative and call it something like grocery watch, maybe that will save Billy ?
[If Galaxy is going to run the Newspoll, why don’t they just combine the resources allocated to the two separate polls and run one big poll with a smaller MOE?]
Money.
[Bye bye Billy. No cut through!]
Get a life, you desperate hack! Or at least copy and paste from a different source. It’s getting rather boring, seeing the exact same post at the beginning on each thread, despite being completely unfounded bullshit.
Did Combet ever refer to it as a tax?
Missed you heaps Carey!!
(In fact, it reads exactly like the “Bye bye Tony!” posts we saw littered across this place a few years ago, every time we saw his personal numbers move a smidgen south)
From the last thread
[1906
confessions
Tim Wilson @timwilsoncomau · 32m 32 minutes ago
Involuntary labour is the ultimate denial of individual rights & freedoms and must be tackled #4Corners
LOL Tim’s all over it until Abetz puts him back in his box!]
We should abolish indentures immediately. s.457 workers are indentured. The system means they may come and work but are not free to leave an exploitative situation. Such workers are essentially bonded labour. This was a feature of labour relations in the 19th century…
https://www.humanrights.gov.au/erace-archives-history-south-sea-islanders-australia
[1860s – Opening up the tropical north
It was commonly believed at this time that white people could not labour safely in the tropics. White labour was also scarce in the period after convict transportation ended and was expensive: its use would limit the competitiveness of Australian tropical industries in comparison with those based in Indonesia or South Africa where labour was much cheaper. The idea of using ‘coloured’ labour to expand the north grew from these considerations. A Mackay plantation owner commented:
“It has been conclusively proved … that white men cannot and will not do the work done by niggers in the field, and … that if white labour were available, it would only be at wages which the planters could never afford to pay. The sugar industry is entirely dependent upon coloured labour.”
1863 – ‘Coloured’ labour
The first group of 67 South Sea Islanders were brought to Queensland to work on a cotton plantation. However, as cotton proved unviable, the sugar industry began developing around this time and most South Sea Islanders brought to Australia worked as manual labourers in the sugar cane fields. Others worked as domestics or shepherds on grazing properties, while some were transported into the west of the state to work on cattle stations. In this early period they were usually brought to Australia by force or trickery.
“Kidnapping was common in the Solomons in the 1870s, mirroring the initial phase of the labour trade in the New Hebrides in the 1860s … The Islanders often thought the men on the big ships wanted to barter … but when they tried to trade … their canoes were smashed and they were forced on board … Others were kidnapped from their canoes while they were fishing.”
For the first five years or so, many recruits had no legal protection in Queensland law and employers were largely free to exploit them at will. Only those few on formal labour contracts were protected by the Queensland Master and Servants Act 1861.
1868 – Polynesian Labourers Act (Queensland)
This was the first legislation introduced to regulate labour trafficking of Pacific Islanders into Queensland. It aimed to stamp out the practice of kidnapping South Sea Islanders. One estimate is that about 5% of Islanders were actually abducted, with at least another 20-25% procured by other illegal methods.
The 1868 Act established a system of indentured labour for South Sea Islanders. They were supposed to sign up to three year contracts on a minimum wage of £6 per year, payable at the end of the contract plus rations. However, some Australian South Sea Islanders today report that the system was not policed and that their forebears were not protected by contracts and did not receive any wages.
“I maintain that it was a form of slavery. It is true that some people in the later years signed a contract to work for three years. But my father didn’t, neither did his brother and neither did their sister. They were paid nothing whatsoever.”]
The online Monday night preview article, more complete article & table to go up at midnight
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-tony-abbott-catches-shorten-labor-keeps-lead/story-fnc6vkbc-1227335193687
[Newspoll: Tony Abbott catches Shorten, Labor keeps lead
THE AUSTRALIAN 10:30 PM
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra
Tony Abbott’s standing with voters has jumped to a seven-month high after the fifth consecutive rise in his personal approval ratings.
And, after trailing Bill Shorten since November as the nation’s preferred prime minister, Mr Abbott has drawn level with the Labor leader, according to the latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend.
While Labor’s primary vote has fallen to its lowest since October at 35 per cent, the ALP continues to hold a two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition, of 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
The first Newspoll for three weeks covers the period of the centenary commemorations at Gallipoli and the executions of Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran by Indonesia, and comes a week before a budget the government promises will deliver sweeteners for families and small business.
Labor’s primary vote is down one point, which is the third consecutive decline and takes the fall since early February to six points. The Coalition suffered a two-point fall to 39 per cent, but is still four points higher than in February.
The Greens rose one point to 12 per cent and support for others, including minor parties and independents, increased two points to 14 per cent.
Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, Labor lifted its two-party-preferred vote from 51 per cent to 52 per cent. It is the 22nd consecutive Newspoll in which Labor has been in front in two-party terms.
The last time the Coalition was in front was April last year, before its first budget.]
Very profound Carey! Is Mike Rann still your all time bestest Premier ?
[zoomster
…Did Combet ever refer to it as a tax?]
1) http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/minister/gregcombet/2012/transcripts/August/TR-250-12.aspx
“The changes also make it absolutely clear that the fixed price period, the so-called carbon tax, will apply for only three years and after that, a fully flexible internationally linked ETS, Emissions Trading Scheme, will come into effect where the carbon price is established by international markets.”
2) http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/minister/gregcombet/2012/transcripts/July/TR-187-12.aspx
“Combet: We’ll this is where, well yes it is. I think it is worth calling the ACCC and I know the ACCC is having a look at it. But as I said before I just noted on one of these retailers’ or suppliers’ lists they don’t even mention the reason for the price increases, they’re just letting you draw a conclusion that somehow this is all the evil carbon tax, whereas it’s actually evil price gouging in my opinion. They might have a reason, some other reason for jacking up their prices so steeply but it’s rather a coincidence that it all took place on the 1st of July.”
3) http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/minister/gregcombet/2012/transcripts/July/TR-171-12.aspx
“Combet: It’s a problem for businesses, having certainty, but can I state this very clearly: Tony Abbott can’t and he won’t repeal the carbon tax mechanism.”
4) http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/minister/gregcombet/2012/transcripts/June/TR-160-12.aspx
“But you wouldn’t want to raise it too much and if so, you’d better be prepared to justify it because we’ll make sure that the ACCC has a look at all of this. All this fear mongering going on about price increases, people want to make sure that they’re not increasing their prices and blaming the carbon tax coming in and it doesn’t turn out to be true.”
5) http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/minister/gregcombet/2012/transcripts/May/TR-114-12.aspx
“Speers: You spoke in Parliament today about massive LNG investment around Gladstone which I think you said it was $50 billion-plus.
Combet: It’s $56 billion.
Speers: Is this due to the carbon tax?
Combet: Well it is not due to the carbon tax, it’s due to demand for liquefied natural gas.”
6) http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/minister/gregcombet/2012/transcripts/May/TR-107-12.aspx
“When Tony Abbott runs around the place like a headless chook claiming all these things, he tries to blame absolutely everything on a carbon price. It’s not like the GST Ian. That you’re going to get a docket saying, you know, carbon tax added on. It’s just that it has an influence on the costs of less than 500 large companies around the country.”
7) http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/minister/gregcombet/2012/transcripts/May/TR-108-12.aspx
“Just last week the member for Paterson also wrongly blamed the carbon price for job losses at the Norsk Hydro aluminium smelter, whereas Norsk Hydro Vice President Halvor Molland made it absolutely clear: The decision would have been the same with or without the carbon tax.”
Goodnight
Still happiness that man did a lot for gouldian finches!
[What was the last published poll to have the LNP ahead?]
Newspoll, April 4-6, 2014.
The carbon pricing system created by the previous Government changed production of electricity. In time it would have also changed investment in that sector, driving the liquidation of obsolete and environmentally damaging plant and the installation of new more efficient technologies.
Sad thing is, this opportunity has been abolished by the LNP. They have an anti-investment bias. The economy will be much the worse off for their incredible stupidity.
So if Abbott is level pegging with shorten on popularity, what is dragging the coalition vote down?
Tell that to the blue collar workers at Loy yang who were betrayed by the alp briefly!
[23
Happiness]
This is futile polemics. The LNP are the enemies of the economically rational. They are serial offenders. They do not believe in protecting growth, in strengthening investment, in the security of our future population. They simply believe in using lies to win and hold power. And for what? They never do anything constructive with power? They simply use it to flatter and enrich themselves.
Does anyone here really believe that the Labor pv is as low as 35%? No other poll is showing that and to me it just looks wrong. It will be very interesting to see what Galaxy’s different methodology comes up with next time.
briefly:
You forgot the “IMO”
I note that ModLib was here at the weekend commenting on matters tax.
Amazing that someone who does not know what a tax deduction is vis a vis salary sacrifice would deign to comment on the tax processes.
You know there is a difference between first preference and two party preferred vote don’t you Darn ?
Happiness
thanks for the list, but none of those links go to speeches by Combet.
There should be no need for a well run, well managed company to place any indenture upon sponsored employees. If your employee does a runner the day he or she lands, then report them to DIBP and move on. If you do your homework properly and only employ people who have a genuine desire to perform the work you offer, you shouldn’t have any issue holding onto those staff.
[32
Happiness
briefly:
You forgot the “IMO”]
This is unqualified truth..nothing speculative about it.
[29
Edwina StJohn
Tell that to the blue collar workers at Loy yang who were betrayed by the alp briefly!]
…as if you give a rats about them…if anyone will be badly hurt by climate change it is the blue collar workers of the world…
Russell Brand endorses Ed Miliband & exhorts his many followers to “vote Labour on May 7th”..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwGBTcIHN0U
Yup collateral damage hey briefly ? Losing your job is necessary for the greater good eh briefly ? Shameful behaviours by Labor.
[Edwina StJohn
Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 11:06 pm | PERMALINK
You know there is a difference between first preference and two party preferred vote don’t you Darn ?]
No ESJ. I’ll have to get someone to explain that to me.
Perhaps they can also explain to me what that’s got to do with the question I asked.
If you don’t understand darn there are plenty of freaks on here who can explain it to you.
[36
teh_drewski
There should be no need for a well run, well managed company to place any indenture upon sponsored employees. If your employee does a runner the day he or she lands, then report them to DIBP and move on. If you do your homework properly and only employ people who have a genuine desire to perform the work you offer, you shouldn’t have any issue holding onto those staff.]
It’s fear that suppresses, t_d. There should be no indentures…and nothing to report if a worker leaves. They should be free to leave and seek work elsewhere as long as the visa is valid. When it expires, they have to leave the country. But if a worker leaves an employer, then, on the face of it, they have failed to meet the commitments they made to the worker before the visa was issued.
It’s no clearer to me what point you were making, ESJ.
[Edwina StJohn
Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 11:19 pm | PERMALINK
If you don’t understand darn there are plenty of freaks on here who can explain it to you.]
If I wanted a freak ESJ I think you would tick all the boxes.
[psyclaw
…I note that ModLib was here at the weekend commenting on matters tax.
Amazing that someone who does not know what a tax deduction is vis a vis salary sacrifice would deign to comment on the tax processes.]
Thanks psyclaw…..a lovely way to go off to dreamland.
You knew about the NSW Health Meal Entertainment Scheme (and how you wedding catering is eligible) all along, eh?
Haha 🙂
You are certainly a keeper, thats for sure.
Good night
Wow – there are a couple of virulent weeds that have utterly infested PB tonight.
Where is Monsanto when you need it?
I think I’ll come back tomorrow when there is clear air.
[psyclaw
…I note that ModLib was here at the weekend commenting on matters tax.
Amazing that someone who does not know what a tax deduction is vis a vis salary sacrifice would deign to comment on the tax processes.]
Thanks psyclaw…..a lovely way to go off to dreamland.
You knew about the NSW Health Meal Entertainment Scheme (and how you wedding catering is eligible) all along, eh?
Haha 🙂
You are certainly a keeper, thats for sure.
Good night
[40
Edwina StJohn
Yup collateral damage hey briefly ? Losing your job is necessary for the greater good eh briefly ? Shameful behaviours by Labor.]
This is a disgraceful slur. Climate change will visit enormous destruction on the economy. Workers in the fossil fuel sector can be re-located to other sectors. New jobs can be found for them. But there will be no alternative economy for us as climate change advances. There is nothing shameful in trying to avert this. It is imperative. Labor’s program was a step in the right direction and would have allowed an adjustment over time.
In contrast, the LNP are trying to hold back time. They will fail and we will all pay for it.
It was Labor that signed off on the end for Loy yang and other blue collar workers.