Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be one of the final results from the Newspoll organisation finds both major parties down on the primary vote, but with Labor’s two-party preferred lead slightly up on the previous result.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.

Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United – the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of “some form of action” against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,161 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 11:07 pm | PERMALINK

    thanks for the list, but none of those links go to speeches by Combet.]

    Your question was whether Combet had referred to it as a tax


    Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 10:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Did Combet ever refer to it as a tax?]

    I posted 7 occasions where Combet referred to it as a tax.

    Really hard to understand how things get so complicated here!

  2. [50
    Edwina StJohn

    It was Labor that signed off on the end for Loy yang and other blue collar workers.]

    As if you care. You wouldn’t know what a day’s work is.

  3. ESJ: what’s your point?

    It is the Liberals that are destroying the automotive, renewables and ship building industries, scientific research and sending thousands of public employees onto the dole queues.

  4. victoria@28

    So if Abbott is level pegging with shorten on popularity, what is dragging the coalition vote down?

    Opposition Leader net satisfaction has next to no impact on government vote historically whereas PM netsat has a big impact and an apparently causal one. Preferred PM has a skew to the incumbent so if the PM and Opposition Leader are level on PPM then usually that means the government is behind. The answer to what is dragging the Coalition vote down is still at this stage probably Abbott.

  5. [ The one the ALP government scrapped when it campaigned on “axe the tax” because (as Rudd put it) the carbon tax was having a negative impact on cost of living for struggling families. ]

    Looky here! Proof that Tony and DIMOB Hockey have company in that parallel reality they inhabit where the 2014 Budget was a success!!

  6. briefly:

    Were you directing that comment at zoomster who first asked whether Combet had called it a tax, and then claimed that he hadn’t made any speeches calling it a tax when I posted 7 occasions where Combet had referred to it as such?

    ….or were you directing the comment at me for pointing out zoomster’s error?

  7. [52
    Edwina StJohn

    Most coal workers would be unemployed we’re Labor to return to government.]

    Coal is on the way out regardless of what any Government might choose to do. But Labor would run an economy that creates new jobs – an economy with strong investment, healthy public finance and support for displaced workers.

    The LNP will blame the workers and find ways to punish them.

  8. Interesting regarding “law enforcement” / worker exploitation.

    Enforcing the laws so that those horrid buyers from overseas cant come and buy all our property illegally and supposedly push up prices (i call bullsh$t by the way) is a priority for the Govt. They decided to do that all on their own.

    Enforcing laws so that people get paid the minimum wage and decent employment conditions?? Maybe not so much the priority….unless of course you want to include stripping penalty rates in the same conversation???

  9. [imacca
    …Looky here! Proof that Tony and DIMOB Hockey have company in that parallel reality they inhabit where the 2014 Budget was a success!!]

    The ALP are only on 52% after all this failure.

    Do you guys remember what you were all saying when the ALP was on 44% (how it meant nothing this far out from an election….even when it was just months away from the election).

  10. I see, so all your opinions are facts.

    We can judge all your assertions about facts within that light then…..good to know.

  11. [ You omitted “IMO” ]

    Trust me Mod, its not only briefly’s opinion.

    I could say that you’re only just marginally smarter than ESJ, but that would be too insulting for a polite blog.

  12. Hey, at this stage, I’ll take “you are marginally smarter than” anyone at all here in the PB universe!

    Thank you kindly!


  13. [ The ALP are only on 52% after all this failure. ]

    You have noticed the consistency since Dec 2013 Mod??

    Keep on spinning. 🙂

  14. [imacca
    Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 11:49 pm | PERMALINK

    Pointed slapdown for the lying tosser that is our PM.]

    I heard Abbott make this claim on the news this afternoon and it sounded like one of his fabrications. Now we know that it was.

    The sooner Australian political life is rid of this disgusting piece of crap the better for all concerned. As far as I am concerned he has no redeeming features whatsoever.

  15. The ATO has just handed over documents to the Senate revealing that price-transfer tax avoidance is estimated to have been well over $100bn in 2013 alone.

    At a tax rate of 30%, imagine what the Budget would look like if those companies weren’t rorting the system for all it was worth (or if the Government weren’t letting them)!

    What a return for Rio Tinto, which (publicly) shelled out $4.2 million on its misleading attack ads against the MRRT, and (privately) another $4.25 million through assorted fronts. Rio Tinto Australia avoids paying taxes on $719 million through Singapore annually.

    Talk about leaners!

  16. …I can just see the press release if this goes ahead:

    [“Welcome, future consumers! In the latest move from the Australian Government (sponsored by Rio Tinto), you can be a part of the Australian Lifestyle ™ for the low price of one million Woolies-bucks! Be quick and send in your forms today – checks payable to Serco Immigration!

    This message was proudly brought to you by BankWest – making banking easier!”]

    The fact that such a pack of verminous germs as the current Government won the election is a testament to the power of the media.


    [Warning lights are flashing over the Greek and French economies, analysts said on Monday, after a closely-watched manufacturing survey showed both nations remained “mired in contraction” in April.

    Turmoil in Greece, and concerns that the country could default on its debt and be forced out of the eurozone pushed Greek activity to a 22-month low, according to Markit’s latest manufacturing barometer.

    The figures also suggested that the European Central Bank’s €1.1 trillion bond-buying programme, which has helped to weaken the euro, has so far failed to lift France out of its chronic malaise.

    French manufacturing activity contracted for the 11th consecutive month in April, with the rate of decline the fastest so far this year. Markit also said employment levels fell for a thirteenth successive month in April.]

  18. Hi guys. I’m in America and even the people I’m staying with can’t understand why Abbott’s still at 48%. Neither can I.

    Mind you, this is a country where a LOT of people believe that Obama’s master plan is to impose martial law and take away their guns, but Abbott’s reputation is mud even over here with the people I’ve talked to. Must be moving in the wrong circles. 😛

  19. Ed

    If this government was serious about the workers of the La Trobe valley then they would be working with the power operators to make renewable energy as cheap as possible to ensure that the energy sector could benefit from investing in it.

    What towns like Moe and Morwell need is for their economics to be diversified and to see an influx of investment into the region.

  20. What you say as a lawyer when your client is a suspected terrorist. The client here is Elton Simpson shot dead in Texas at the cartoon competition.

    [ Sitton told ABC News. “He never struck me as someone who would do this sort of thing. I’m not a bleeding heart, I’m a Republican. I’ve seen some pretty bad guys and he seemed pretty normal.]

  21. @ Matt, 74

    $100bn a year?! I knew it was a lot, but man… there are no words.

    This needs to be cracked down on YESTERDAY.

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It is a wild and woolly morning here at the moment!

    Another regressive taxation proposal.
    Will this new crew be given the green light to target ALL of them?
    It seems there is a lack of trust on both sides of the Pacific over the TPP.
    How can a “dull” budget carry “huge political risks”?
    Bill Shorten says the government can’t afford a dull budget according to Mark Kenny.
    Peter Martin says a “do nothing” budget will cost the nation time.
    Abbott and Hockey are running scared.
    I hope Sussan Ley has the courage (and more importantly the support) to see this through.
    More nice work by the Jesuits! Why do we support these mediaeval customs and practices through our taxation system?
    The Australian media union has slammed Abbott in its annual report.

  23. Section 2 . . .

    I wonder who’s pulling the strings here.
    This gives me the willies!
    Andrew Bolt’s upside down world.
    The role of manufacturing in our future economy.
    Paul Bongiorno explores the possibility of Abbott calling a snap election.
    Stephen Koukoulas says we should get ready for a fall in house prices.
    “View from the Street” looks at Lomborg, Mirabella and Adani.
    Turnbull is trying to keep the lid on the mess that the NBN has become. This is a very good analysis.
    The 28 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    An extra $2m has been spent on the Dr Karl campaign.

  24. Section 3 . . .

    And the use of brown coal for electricity generation has surged after Abbott and Hunt got into power.–sherry-20150504-1mchww.html
    Alan Moir takes Abbott into the Indonesian minefield.

    David Pope ant the 2015 budget delivery.

    More from David Pope.

    Ron Tandberg puts the age of entitlement into perspective.

    Pat Campbell at the Sydney Airport freight terminal.

    Mark Knight at the AFP press conference yesterday.

    Hockey’s path to budget recovery courtesy of David Rowe.

    John Kudelka introduces the process of preparing for budget readiness.

  25. Happiness

    wow, prickly!

    I thanked you for the information, but pointed out that your links were out of date.

    I thought that you’d like to know that.

    I didn’t dispute your evidence, despite the fact that I couldn’t verify it – I assumed it was correct.

  26. Happiness

    [zoomster who first asked whether Combet had called it a tax, and then claimed that he hadn’t made any speeches..]

    Er, I didn’t do this. I pointed out that the links didn’t work, that’s all.

    My first question was simply because I didn’t know if he had referred to it as a tax or not. It was curiousity, that’s all. I wasn’t trying to make some killer point.

  27. Coal is already in death throws, noone can save it, yes the death might be quick and painful or slow and painful (mainly to investors) renewables are probably less than a decade from cross-over from where it will be fair to say oil and new gas will be in its death throws (LNG will last longer just because of the upfront cost of LNG plants and the economics as soon as you’ve constructed one).

    The technology, energy and jobs of the future are all in renewables, how is the current government dealing with that by focusing on COAL. Could you have a more stupid government. No.

  28. To misquote Jon Stewart if Gillard and Rudd and Combet all called the carbon price a tax all that proves is that stupidity is bipartisan.

  29. UK Election update (Mon) – Bank holiday here today. so a bit quiet.

    1.One national poll, ‘Tied’ on 33%

    2.A poll by ICM in Nick Clegg’s seat: i. A generic Lib Dem would be losing by 2% to Lab ii. With the candidates named, the Tory tactical vote has him up by 7% over Lab

    n.b. Full details in the Grauniad, ICM has some strict LV/DK adjustments which make a significant difference (Tied on the ‘named’ question before these)

  30. OK, a couple of things in this article has me piqued.

    [The Pharmacy Guild – sometimes dubbed the most powerful lobby group in Canberra – ]

    By whom? when? I’ve never heard this applied to the Pharmacy Guild. But perhaps they’re so powerful they never get reported on.

    [..the government is threatening to remove the chemists’ prized “location” rules which prevent new chemists from opening within 1.5km from an existing chemist shop..]

    Sorry, what? A new chemist has just opened about 200 metres from our old one. Our old one used to have a rival less than 100 metres away.

    When I went with a wander around Hawthorn with my son the day he moved to Uni, there were three chemists within 200 metres.

    If these rules exist, they’re not very effective.

    And chemists do discount prescriptions – it’s one of the marketing tools our new chemist is using to win over customers.

  31. What a surprise on Sky News . The poll report was all “Abbott surge” and preferred PM going much better for our Tones. Oh and both major parties had falls in their primary vote.

  32. [By whom? when? I’ve never heard this applied to the Pharmacy Guild. But perhaps they’re so powerful they never get reported on.]

    I’ve always heard it was the AMA was the most powerful union, ‘lobby group’ is a way less defined group, wouldn’t at this time with a liberal government Gina be the most power lobby group, with the rest of the LNP donors second?

  33. Joe Hockey realises he has promised corp Australia it will all be ok, promised Australia he’ll fix the whole international tax problem all on his own and that it is hard, goes ‘oh boy look over there:

    [Hockey to fight tax dodgers and organised criminals with new taskforce]

    Actual criminal tax cheats almost certainly exist, and it is good the fight to catch them is resourced, but it isn’t part of the conversation Australia has been having about Corporate tax.

  34. Another election vignette from today

    The ‘Independent’ newspaper has endorsed another Tory/LD coalition, some have thought this strange with it’s well-known left lean

    The Russian owner is one of the famous Non-Doms………..

  35. Morning all. So Abbott has surged backwards? Excellent. May he keep doing so.

    Thanks for the links BK. You are right about the news and the weather, both grim. That story on brown coal emissions is the real killer of Hunt’s direct action nonsense – even if the policy works, the outcome fails, because it does not deter more emissions being created in the first place.

  36. zoomster

    [I’ve never heard this applied to the Pharmacy Guild. But perhaps they’re so powerful they never get reported on.]

    I have.

  37. Zoom raises a good point. If the pharmacy guild is so powerful where does that leave the miners or the BCA? AgFarce would probably also feel aggrieved by the claim.

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