Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be one of the final results from the Newspoll organisation finds both major parties down on the primary vote, but with Labor’s two-party preferred lead slightly up on the previous result.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.

Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United – the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of “some form of action” against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,161 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Well of course there are shock horror (queue surprise) unanswered allegations of rorting in labors leadership ballot designed to shaft Albo.

  2. Bernard Keane has been pointing out that Annabel Crabb stated, at the time, that there was a ‘whiff of Pyongyang’ about Bob Brown’s resignation, and, again today, she stated that there was a ‘whiff of Moscow’ about Milne’s resignation.

    That’s how seriously people like Crabb take their sense of entitlement to internal party information. I must say, I like the way the Greens kept the press uninformed.

  3. [The tedious Greens v Labor flame war has broken out again. No doubt of huge interest and importance to those involved but unbelievably batshit boring to the rest of us.]

    Yeah, well, I was asking after an Alberta thread days ago…

  4. Lenor Taylor

    “In his first outing Di Natale proved he could deliver a progressive political message – zinger free – and without torturously scripted soundbites.”

    It can only raise the level of currently abysmal political discussion in Australia, Labor will benefit & Tony Abbott be exposed for the idiot he is.
    Maybe the press will even get sick of asking stupid questions, though judging by Leigh Sales efforts tonight it may take a while.

  5. [Strangely I miss Frans 1000 word posts.]

    Me too, although stalking her twits or twitches or whatever they are called her 1000 word posts seem much sounder than her twits.

  6. BB

    Thanks for heads up though I had decided I wouldn’t even try. The trailers gave me a clue of where it would go.

    I will watch something on Foxtel instead!

  7. [Tried to watch SBS’s Struggle Street.

    Very depressing. Have switched channels.]

    if only they could switch lives to neighbors

  8. [One hope I have for Di Natale is other pollies will emulate his treatment of media lizards.]

    Of all areas some bipartisanship from labor on this would be nice, show some strength and courage and stop kissing Rupert ass in the hope he’ll support you, he never will, the ABC wont even be fair to you … time to hit back at the idiots.

  9. I see that a lot of people here like to comment on the Greens (almost always in the negative).

    My question is though, what is the source of information used by these individuals to form their opinions?

    Media reports? Repeated hearsay from others? or an in depth study of Greens policy information from their website and/or personal experience from being a member of the Greens?

    Most people just display their ignorance with everything they say about the Greens. They get the inner politics wrong, the policies wrong and the motivation and membership wrong.

    If you want to know about the Greens visit the website, read the policy documents, read the parliamentarian’s blogs, read Bob Browns books and/or go and meet your parliamentarians or hear them speak. It will be enlightening.

  10. Love this comment on the Tory press in the UK in panic mode:

    [If you can bear it, I’d recommend getting hold of each of today’s papers and keeping them in a box. Then, a few decades from now, you can show them to your grandchildren. They’ll be amazed. Not by all the frothy-mouthed lunacy on display, but the fact that newspapers even existed.]

  11. The LNP trolls including those in the MSM have been trying to corner Di Natale on the fuel levey, Nick took the trouble to tell all he was more interested in getting the big end of town to pay their fair share of taxes.

    Looks like trouble for Tony

  12. victoria

    He took no crap and was not afraid to tell a journo that they had asked a stupid question or tell them they should do more research. Basically instead of a pollie walking on eggshells lest he upset a lizard he let them know their place. The journos largely got the message.

    As to his politics , we shall see.

  13. As someone else said, we have three or four other parties that haveno trouble digging up straight white men to lead them — why have the Grees gone down this path? So much for divisity and progressive politics. Greens will struggle for relevance at next poll — having helped destroy a Labor Govt a big part of the raison d’être has disappeared for now!

  14. Thanks poroti

    Di Natale occasionally is interviewed on ABC radio here in Melbourne. I have always found him to be rather sensible

  15. victoria

    [Mt Druitt looks very down and out. 🙁 ]
    I have never been there but Mt Druitt for many years has been one of the meeja faves for “povo porn”.

    Remember The Daily Toilet’s big shock horror about “all” Mt Druitt’s year 12 failing story ? So nothing new. That was way back in the 1990s

    [In 1996, Year 12 students at Mount Druitt High School were reported by the Daily Telegraph to have failed the Higher School Certificate (HSC). Subsequent to this story being published, the Australian Press Council upheld a number of complaints regarding the article,based on there not being a system of awarding pass and fail marks for students undertaking the HSC, and a class action for defamation was won against the publishers. As a result of this court case the publishers issued a retraction and apology]

  16. I think I agree with Lenore Taylor

    [But unlike Milne he was not first known as an environmental campaigner, which probably means he has a better chance of conveying to the electorate that the party has not been single issue for a long time.]

    I dont do Greens bashing but it seems to me that Christine Milne and Bob Brown were regarded by many (not always by me) as a couple of tree huggers from Tasmania and that affected their ability to get the message across.

  17. poroti

    Didnt know anything about this place until this show. Looks like entrenched poverty is the order of the day.

  18. This is of course a coup in the party — but stuff the press gallery and brain-dead reporters like Crabbe — those bastards deserve to be kept in the dark!

    So I give the Greens credit for that.

    Quite frankly, Crabbe can stick her Pyongyang and Moscow references where the sun don’t shine!

  19. [If you want to know about the Greens visit the website, read the policy documents, read the parliamentarian’s blogs, read Bob Browns books and/or go and meet your parliamentarians or hear them speak. It will be enlightening.]

    I’ve met a lot of adoring labor cheerleaders, who could watch their local member kill and eat babies and still rave … but I think they come close to your level of balance.

  20. [Quite frankly, Crabbe can stick her Pyongyang and Moscow references where the sun don’t shine!]

    I’m impressed she knows those places!

  21. Paaptsef – I used to be more involved with the party (simply too busy now) but am happy to take it at face value.

    I have seen people join the Greens that are interested in their own personal agendas and I would think the Greens aren’t immune to people playing politics within the party but most people attracted to the party don’t have that type A personality as the party generally promotes collective interest over self interest (or at least enlightened self-interest) and this is kind of antithetical to that type of person.

    When I was a paid up member of the party I always felt involved and listened to and I think most in the party feel the same so I don’t support the view that there is come dominant group within the party that always pulls things their way.

    For all parties being the leader of the party seems to be an all consuming activity – it must take a lot out of them. For the majors I have no doubt the people that lead have always had that burning ambition and that probably sustains them and is a reason they rarely step down without bing forced. For Bob and Christine I would say this was not the case – I think they did what was asked of them/required of them for the good of the party & the country and that it was not even a personal desire or dream of theirs to lead in the first place.

    I hope that continues with Richard and any others that follow.

    (I personally would have liked Scott but I am from WA – it could be that managing the party from the West could be too difficult).

  22. From the comments, the Daily Telegraph article on Struggle Street is struggling itself… to garner much sympathy for the denizens of Mt. Druitt.

    Seems the DT has spent so much time denigrating, heckling and mocking “dole and disability bludgers” that much of it has stuck, like the proverbial merde to a blanket.

    Most of the comments I’ve read so far are completely unsympathetic to people having 10 kids (and some of their kids are on the same track) and then wondering why they’re so poor.

    I’m not saying that’s the whole story of Struggle Street (I turned it off, after all, after about half an hour) but from what I saw it’s not all doom and gloom. Enough to make me pick up the remote control, but for those made of sterner stuff youse might find a point or two of interest.

  23. There is zero reason for the Greens to inform the media that a leadership change “might” be happening. It will only create a content-free feeding frenzy on the part of those jackals.

  24. Di Natali today____
    I thought he spoke with clarity and vision and answerede the media with sensible comments and wasn’t drawn into the usual dready stuff that they love to use

    A real burst pf fresh air and a change for the appalling Abbott and poor dreary Shorten(whom I think…sadly…can not win the next elections)

  25. WeWantPaul

    For the record I do not agree with the Greens on everything and wouldn’t consider myself a cheerleader. I do vote Green because on balance I support more of their policies than the others. I’m probably agree with 70% of the Greens policies, 40% of Labours and 25% of Liberals.

    For instance I think the Greens have got it wrong when they call for an increase in University funding. I’ve spent 5 years of my life at University and I fully believe they could delivery better results with a 25% cut to their budget if they in any way attempted to be efficient and focussed with how they spent it.

    I would support the Liberals making the cut (because no one else ever would) provided it was controlled in a way to cut the waste and not cut the quality and leave the waste alone – which would happen if it was up to the university VC’s.

    I agree with the Greens in that I do not support fee deregulation or increased student contributions. Does that show enough balance? I never, ever adopt a policy position based on a party position but always by weighing things for myself. 70% of the time I think the Greens get it right.

  26. Let’s just celebrate the new Greens leader and not think about any mention of political realism that he might have made

  27. [As someone else said, we have three or four other parties that haveno trouble digging up straight white men to lead them — why have the Grees gone down this path?]

    Di Natale is probably the most culturally diverse of all their members, albeit in a vanilla way.

  28. [Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 9h 9 hours ago
    People mistake Richard De Natale for Adam Bandt. Is that what happened?]

    LOL. I’ve often said the two embrace that whole inner city, uniquely Melbourne look.

  29. [As someone else said, we have three or four other parties that haveno trouble digging up straight white men to lead them — why have the Grees gone down this path?]

    Perish the thought he might be the best candidate

  30. blackburnpseph

    [On the other hand, the MPs vote in the ALP is effectively controlled by the factions. GG, remember that Albo won the rank and file vote and Shorten is only there courtesy of the MPs.]

    1. The leadership vote saw Left MPs voting for Shorten and Right MPs voting for Albo. Although more of the Right voted for Shorten than vice versa, that is as much because people join the Right (or Left) because they think a certain way. If factions didn’t exist, Shorten’s vote probably would have been much the same.

    (It helps if you think of factions as friendship groups — in essence, they are).

    2. There is good reason for a balance between members and the executive, and most ballots in the ALP reflect this.

    Arguably, the tension between a leader elected by the members and a parliamentary party which couldn’t work with the leader so elected was a big element in the demise of the Democrats.

    It’s not beyond the realms of fantasy that, had members known Shorten and Albo in the same way that MPs did, they would also have voted for Shorten. Public perception and private performance are often two very different things.

    Regardless, the ballot for the leadership was a step in the right direction, and should be applauded for that reason.

  31. Been a pleasure to be a Victorian ALP supporter this last 24 hours. A State budget based on social justice, jobs and fairness. And a strong, confident Premier and his Ministers espousing said values.

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