GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.
Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.
UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United – the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of “some form of action” against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.
fess,
Only Progressive Parties of action like the ALP could deliver a rank and file elected Leader.
Greens talk. Labor delivers.
There’s no such thing as a good election to lose. As Puff TMD said in 973 (&974), while it would be great to see Abbott & Co wallow in their own swill, Australia is in there with them. We’re still stuck with the Howard / Costello legacy, including broken tax, super and private school support.
[Greens talk. Labor delivers]
More moan bitch condemn and pontificate than talk. Talk is civil.
victoria
A good listen indeed.
Don, PeeBee,
Thanks, glad you enjoyed my effort last night with Abbott, Hockey and Downfall 🙂
GG:
You mean all that confected outrage that Labor is undemocratic etc etc and the Greens don’t even give their members a say in the leadership? I’m shocked at the chutzpah of it all!
poroti
I dont understand economics very well. But this latest interest rate didnt feel right
victoria
I’ll race ya for the prize of who knows less about economics 🙂
Re interest rates, ideally we would want to keep interest rates higher in Sydney and maybe Melbourne, at least for housing, and drop them everywhere else. Of course that is not practical. On current form, Sydney House prices will simply rise to absorb any benefit to people actually looking for a place to live. There will be a corresponding increase in rents. It’s a gigantic game of musical chairs and when the music stops it’s going to be ugly.
Victoria
Yes, that’s exactly what Proff McKibbon said. He said that in most developed countries the GFC recovery is still incomplete and proceeding ….. and in many cases where monetary policy is the main strategy recovery is not proceeding well.
Our rrcovery began from a higher base than any other country in the world, and our over reliance on monetary policy ie Reserve Bank’s configuring interest rate, in the absence of tax and spending structural reforms is dragging us down.
What makes it hard is that (a) punters felt no GFC pain and even now do not, since they can fund consumption by cheap borrowings, and (b) there are structural reforms resulting from the largesse of Costello and Howard in building sweetners into the budgetary structures that need to be addressed (but punters do and will scream blue murder).
So according to McKibbon, thinkg are on course to deteriorate imminently.
Steve777
Posted Wednesday, May 6, 2015 at 7:37 pm | PERMALINK
Re interest rates, ideally we would want to keep interest rates higher in Sydney and maybe Melbourne, at least for housing, and drop them everywhere else. Of course that is not practical. On current form, Sydney House prices will simply rise to absorb any benefit to people actually looking for a place to live. There will be a corresponding increase in rents. It’s a gigantic game of musical chairs and when the music stops it’s going to be ugly.
Steve
In your opinion just how ugly is it likely to be. How much are house prices likely to fall if the bubble bursts as many knowledgeable people think it must?
Greens set the agenda. Labor reluctantly implements some of it. Case in point: the price on carbon.
The cancellation of the East-West Link went down this way: Labor was all over the shop for a long time. They couldn’t make up their mind whether the support or oppose it. Much sticking of wet fingers in the air ensued. The Greens got to work immediately on a community-based campaign to oppose the project. When Labor saw the political upside of cooperating with the grassroots movement, it finally came out in opposition.
Victoria
Interest rate manipulation is a blunt instrument. For every sector it helps, another sector is detrimented.
Within housing, the current decision will blow up the Sydney housing market, but may well be helpful to Adelaide and other places.
greens articulate labor reacts
@GG/1000
I thought the only poll that counts is election day? (i.e. like the UK are facing?)
Also “election winning position” is not really when your being weak on policy front.
[Senators Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam were elected as Greens co-deputy leaders, replacing Adam Bandt,]
Has a whiff of the unravelling that was the Democrats.
[Only Progressive Parties of action like the ALP could deliver a rank and file elected Leader.]
The recently (officially) deceased Australian Democrats gave their rank and file the 100% deciding vote in leadership elections.
In their case, some sort of electoral college may have helped.
On the other hand, the MPs vote in the ALP is effectively controlled by the factions. GG, remember that Albo won the rank and file vote and Shorten is only there courtesy of the MPs.
[greens articulate labor reacts]
The Greens have been largely invisible in the current parliament. I haven’t actually seen or heard them articulate much at all really.
Labor does not deliver, it follows.
[The cancellation of the East-West Link went down this way: Labor was all over the shop for a long time.]
Labor’s opposition to East-West was all about shoring up inner city seats against the Greens. Nothing more, nothing less.
fess,
The Greens, in Victoria at least, use a hereditary monarchy model to control their Party.
Di Natale is the brother-in law of Greg Barber the Greens Leader in Victoria’s upper house. I’m told there are princelings and princesses spread all through the organisation.
Greens supporters are pining for a Royal Marriage one day.
They know it’s the only way they will ever gain street cred.
Loyal foot soldiers will never get a chance of real influence.
The greens are a healthy development – a true left party which will be a fundamental part of a centre-left govt in this country – we just need to move to pr which will facilitate true coalitions. What’s left of labor can become a labour/ union party and the liberals can split into a centre party and a Conservative party. Plus ca change comrades !
Labor leads the polls.
The Greens react.
So they become more like Labor in its incestuosness GG ?
[We’re still stuck with the Howard / Costello legacy, including broken tax, super and private school support.]
Agree with your sentiment above but then Labor did nothing about these when in office for 6 years.
Re Darn @1011: I have no particular expertise but just simple reasoning suggests that when interest rates return to anything like historical norms, lots of people are going to be stuck. If mortgage rates increase from about 5% to a more ‘normal’ 8 to 10%, mortages on recent loans will escalate by 50 to 100% and there will be lots of people in terrible straits. Plus wage growth is constrained, unemployment is rising, a house in Sydney costs 8 to 10 years’ average salary, way over historical norms and way over that fir comparable countries. I can’t see why what happened in, among other places, the USA. Ireland and Spain can’t happen here. It’s all down to brainless market forces.
But that is my inexpert opinion.
Labor posters on PB constantly bemoan the anti-Labor bias of the mainstream media. Yet they attribute the paucity of mainstream media coverage of the Greens to a lack of skill and merit on the part of the Greens, not to the priorities and agendas of the mainstream media. It’s contradictory.
The truth is that the mainstream media reports politics in a way which suits its preference for simple narratives. Their simple narrative about the Greens is that they are a single-issue party that puts the environment ahead of people. This narrative is false but that’s what the media wants to run and they are sticking with it. They don’t cover anything that does not fit their preconceived narrative.
I don’t agree with you Nicholas but to be fair you never resort to abuse like some do on this site.
Edwina, with all your higher than mighty balderdash you do realise that you are the person who cheered this incompetent joke of a government when it delivered it’s joke of a budget and are cheering this incompetent joke of a government every time it backflips on one of it’s lies don’t you?
psyclaw
Thanks. I actually searched the interview and linked in on the blog.
I feel the Melbourne Market may also blow up with this latest rate. Although I notice the NAB and CBA have not passed on the full cut
ESJ,
No one family controls Labor.
The Greens are the Mafia without all the polite hand kissing.
bbp
You must have amnesia. labor attempted to means test family payments and the baby bonus. Hockey and Abbott and the rest of the motley crew were screaming class war with the help of the Murdoch shit sheets. And not forgetting means testing the health insurance rebate as well
vic,
What is happening is that the Banks are starting to raise their threshold rates for assessing loans.
This makes it more difficult for people to qualify for loans.
[Di Natale is the brother-in law of Greg Barber the Greens Leader in Victoria’s upper house. ]
I did not know that. I wonder why Bandt wasn’t elected deputy. Did he not run?
And dont forget the super concessions and FBT on motor vehicles
[Well, Labor’s process is certainly more democratic than the Greens. Not only did we get to vote, we actually knew that there was a leadership vacancy.]
Yes, I can’t imagine the ALP would ever try to take the nation by surprise with a snap change of leadership.
Comments about the better process for ALP leadership position are fair enough. The ALP made a progressive change there and good on them. It is the way the Greens should go.
Conversely Greens greater say for members in all preselections is more democrstic, and is the way the sLP should move.
But it’s a little hard to take seriously as analysis suggestions that a process implemented yesterday precisely because the ALP had been habitusl abusers of the previous process is evidence of credentials…
[Agree with your sentiment above but then Labor did nothing about these when in office for 6 years.]
In the last parliament the coalition blocked every attempt by Labor to means test certain taxpayer funded support. I’ve got a feeling the Greens stood alongside the Liberals on a couple of them as well, but can’t recall exactly.
GG
I was aware that Apra were going to implement rule changes. Not sure if they involved capping limits on lending
[Greens set the agenda.]
Yeah, 149 members of the lower house sit and wait for instructions from Adam Bandt.
Martin B,
Labor has learnt their lesson about leader go round and now have a far more democratic and progressive process for electing our Parliamentary Leader.
The Greens need to step up to the plate and start walking their talk.
I’m not holding my breath, though.
Labor caucus represents millions of voters who in a democratic process have made the decision to vote for the ALP.
Labor membership is around 40000.
Which of the two, caucus or membership, most represents the wishes of the Australian voting public ?
I personally think the 50/50 split is a bit too generous to the party membership.
By all means the leadership of the party, president etc. should be decided by the membership but a 50/50 split for caucus leader is far too generous.
cheers.
Martin B
[Yes, I can’t imagine the ALP would ever try to take the nation by surprise with a snap change of leadership.]
Touché 😆
vic,
APRA have said some serious things to the Banks about lending to people that can’t afford a loan.
Westpac moved their hurdle rate up to 2.1% above the standard variable rate the other day. Some of the smaller banks are already higher.
My guess is the bigger banks will leave their hurdle rates where they are even after the flow through of the latest rate cuts. Which makes it more difficult for people to qualify.
Doylesy,
I’m with you.
You need people closer to the day of a Leaders modus operandi to have a big say in the election of a Leader.
Otherwise, it’s just a beauty contest.
[897
Patrick Bateman]
Labor leadership is decided by a poll of members and MP’s. They vote independently of each other and the result of each ballot is secret. It is not the case that one group (members) are polled and then another group (the Caucus) are given the chance to upset the first poll.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-13/how-do-labor-leadership-voting-rules-work/4955726
[Party members will vote first, but the outcome will not be known until after MPs and Senators have cast their ballots.
The final result will be determined by giving equal weight to the parliamentary Labor Party decision and that of the grassroots membership.
Under the new rules, the only way to then remove the leader would be for 60 per cent of Caucus members to sign a petition requesting a new election.]
The process is designed to secure stable leadership in a process that is fair and secret and in which no candidate is inherently advantaged or disadvantaged.
Labor’s process has certainly delivered stable leadership after a fair ballot. That is the relevant test.
GG
the banks will work within the regulatory guidelines. Nothing more nothing less me thinks
It must be a slow news day. The tedious Greens v Labor flame war has broken out again. No doubt of huge interest and importance to those involved but unbelievably batshit boring to the rest of us.
vic,
Believe it or not, the Banks want to lend money.
However, they are more concerned than anyone about the money being paid back.
APRA seem to be fighting the GFC again.
Yes GG Labor is more like 20 families Somoza style .
GG
[APRA seem to be fighting the GFC again.]
Yep it sure feels that way