Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be one of the final results from the Newspoll organisation finds both major parties down on the primary vote, but with Labor’s two-party preferred lead slightly up on the previous result.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.

Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United – the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of “some form of action” against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,161 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Jimmie D.
    The British election results will be Friday morning (not tomorrow) in Oz. Polls close at 10 p.m. in the UK, 7 a.m. here and the results should become apparent from about 10 a.m. Eastern Australian time.
    Antony Green is over there and has a detailed discussion of the likely progress of the count:
    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/05/how-the-uk-election-count-will-unfold.html
    In that thread Antony promises regular updates on 24, but not rolling coverage. Those with Foxtel will have the option of the BBC or Sky coverage, (not available to Bushfire Bill), but I expect that the BBC online will be accessible to most of us.

  3. And another thing Patrick. It is obvious that the Liberals are angling for an increase in the GST and the polls on that have shown that it is rat poison electorally. I will be very surprised if Labor doesn’t run that one as well.

  8. Zoomster:

    As far as I can make out – you don’t provide a link, so I googled the paragraph – that was a motion to National Conference. I’m not even sure it was passed.

    The first is out of the platform proper, the second is a motion passed at the conference and recorded in the platform document. You must have crippling arthritis if you can’t do the necessary googling and Ctrl-F-ing to find that.

    Regardless of whether an internet filter is contrary to Labor policy/philosophy (which IMHO it is), it is obviously bad policy for any liberal democracy to allow the government to censor the free exchange of ideas on the basis of ‘protecting’ the people. I cannot believe any sane person would argue in favour of more government control of communications infrastructure in light of the endless sagas re illegal spying which have been revealed over the last few years.

  9. KB @ 956
    That’s easy, I believe the gallery have been handed out the official Greens Leadership Change Narrative sheet, just get a hold of that, cut and paste, and your work is done.

  10. PB

    [I’m not confused at all. It continues to entrench the power of the factions, while paying lip service to the members. The only example we have of it being put into action so far involved the preference of the members being over-ruled by the factions.]

    entrenched…power of the factions…lip service…over-ruled by the factions.

    Oh, I’ve fetched up in Sloganville.

  11. DisplayName

    Are you serious?

    Yes. If you can’t see how a system where a majority votes one way and then an appointed cabal over-rules them could be described as ‘undemocratic’, then I can’t help you to understand the concept.

    Would it still be ‘democratic’ if one person’s vote counted for 99% and the rest for 1%? Where is the mysterious line where this type of system becomes undemocratic in your eyes?

    A ‘democratic’ approach implies some notion of ‘one vote one value’.

    I appreciate the purpose of the current arrangement. I don’t actually think some sort of arrangement along those lines is totally unreasonable. But to pretend that it is somehow democratic in a true sense is nonsense. The entire purpose of limiting members to 50% of the votes is to ensure that it’s not wholly democratic.

    And again, my comments were a response to someone having a crack at the Greens for their allegedly undemocratic approach. Whatever the theory, the effect of both parties’ systems is that their current leaders were selected by the same people who have traditionally chosen the leader.

  12. Victoria

    i’m with you. An election in the next 3 months will not surprise me at all.

    This morning on ABC RN I heard interviews of Professor Warwick McKibbon (ANU and ex Board member of Reserve Bank) and another whose name eludes me just now,

    Both were excellent interviews and both were of the opinion that the Reserve Bank has failed and will continue to fail in its attempts to use interest rates to spark the economy.

    McKibbon predicted (beforehand) that yesterday’s cut would not reduce the value of $AUD, and it didn’t. Both experts predict a dire economy in the forward period, because (they say) no government has the guts to do the necessary structural reform on both sides of the ledger ….. taxes and spending.

    As many have said here for nearly 2 years, Abbott’s mob will stuff the economy, so none of us should be surprised.

    I think Abbott would be prepared to risk his last year in government and chance his arm on being re-elected, because stupid as he is, he is also cunning enough to know that the economy will inevitably be worse in the lead up to a 2016 election. As well, if he wins he’ll cement himself as leader for a new term or part thereof.

    McKibbon said that low interest rates have not facilitated recovery of any nation post GFC because households take advantage of low interest to borrow for consumption, not for investing in their future.

    So Sloppy’s hypocritical call yesterday ( in contrast to what he said when interest rates dropped under Labor) that businesses and households should now borrow, is in effect a call for households to consume now and pay later ie party.

    Not only will this increase the nation’s debts, but it will harden punters’ attitudes and make them less prepared to engage in a national conversation about structural tax and spending changes. Why talk about painful matters when we’re all borrowin and spendin up on the never never.

    So I suspect a con budget next week will in Abbott’s view seduce enough marginal voters to stay with him and keep him in office if he acts before the economy really turns to crap.

  14. [Yes. Mark Kenny has been staring at the sun shining out of Abbott’s butt so long he has been blinded]

    Guytaur, Victoria et al

    Seems like that to me. I read it and thought someone had been drip feeding Kenny the Kool-Aid. You see, it can only be good news if you believe that it is the politically vicious obstructionist Christine Milne controlled Greens that have made it impossible for this hard working and courageous government. And therefore, under di Natale, Lee Rhiannon and SHY, among others will become sweetness, light and reason (as declared by the business interests backing the Coalition) and support Government legislation in areas that Xenophon, Lambie, Muir and Lazarus cannot bring themselves to support.

    If journalists believe that crap, then the Liberals must be seriously thinking about running to a DD after the election. Australia should be so lucky!

  15. PB
    You were comparing it to the Greens party room ballot. Are you one of those people I have to quote to themselves?

    Forget it. I’m not buying into this stupid argument, and the stupid points made by people on both sides of it.

  16. [918
    victoria

    I am not seeing how DiNatale would make life easier for Abbott]

    Me either.

    Greens AND Labor have a rare window here to get a policy based political debate going, and do a nice compare and contrast to the dessicated authoritarian mercantilist propaganda from the Abbott Cons.

  19. Oh, I’ve fetched up in Sloganville.

    I see. When you have no substantive response, play the man.

    If the factions don’t wield disproportionate power, then kindly explain to me why some 65% of Labor voters favour gay marriage, and another 12% don’t care, yet there is heated opposition within the party to that becoming (non-conscience vote) policy?

    77% of Labor voters support voluntary euthanasia and 10% don’t care, yet Labor policy is to leave existing laws as they are.

    At one stage in 2010 Australia wide support for the government having responsibility for protecting people from on-line content was as low as 4%, and the policy was an utter dog for Labor, yet it now appears to be rearing its ugly head yet again.

    And of course Labor mysteriously supports the unpopular and utterly indefensible policy of using public money to pay for religious indoctrination in public schools.

    If you can’t work out why Labor takes these positions, which are directly contrary to the wishes of both Labor members and the public as a whole, and if you are unaware of the long history of a small group of very influential, socially conservative powerbrokers consistently affecting pre-selection and policy, then I’m not sure how you think you are in an position to comment, frankly.

  20. I suppose Tony will wait until his (and Joe’s) nation-building, friendly-to-everyone, sensible-but-incredibly-creative budget has hit the streets before they go to an election.

    But (drum-roll) what if it doesn’t work?
    What will Tony do then…

  21. If an election IS held soon and Abbott does scramble back with a small margin – because that’s all it would be – we can confidently expect, with a likely failing economy over the next few years, that the Liberals would suffer a father of a hiding at the following election. In a way that would be preferable to Labour being handed a poisoned chalice again, as it turned out to be in 2007 in the wake of the GFC.

  23. I too, am wondering if it would be better for the ALP to lose the next election and let the coalition wallow in tbeir own swill. The problem is we have wallow with them.

  24. I too, am wondering if it would be better for the ALP to lose the next election and let the coalition wallow in tbeir own swill. The problem is we have wallow with them.

  26. [@AP: BREAKING: German police arrest 4 they say were plotting to attack Islamic targets; seize explosives http://t.co/1ES2qHIw6w%5D

    Terrorists! Trying to destroy our way of life! Ban the burqa etc!! Oh wait, they weren’t Muslim, they’re white. Nothing to see here, move on.

    😛

  27. Patrick Bateman

    Since for years I had no understanding of the factions within parties, I used to be mystified by some Labor decisions (the Coalition, OTOH, were no mystery). Consequently, I often voted Democrat.

    Enlightened by the opinions on PB, I am no longer mystified, just frustrated.

  29. Due to Monopoly of Labor and Coalition in bed with each other, costs will be back on the customer:

    iTnews.com.au ‏@iTnews_au 3h3 hours ago

    Telcos ordered to pay Dallas Buyers Club’s court costs: DBC told to hand in draft letter by next week. http://bit.ly/1E7hufh

    This new Labor is the same Coalition Party.

  30. [Queensland’s Liberal National Party is trying to capitalise on the Billy Gordon saga by giving journalists complete stories to copy and paste.

    The office of Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg sent out a three-sentence radio script and a grab of Mr Springborg on Wednesday afternoon.

    4BC Radio political journalist Nick Wiggins said the Opposition often sent out radio grabs to help out newsrooms.

    But this was taking it one step further, Wiggins said.
    . . .
    University of Queensland’s journalism program director John Harrison said it was nothing new and scripted releases had always got through at some media organisations.

    “Commercial radio is always known as rip and read,” he said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-06/liberal-national-party-giving-suggested-introductions-to-stories/6449906

  33. psyclaw

    [McKibbon said that low interest rates have not facilitated recovery of any nation post GFC because households take advantage of low interest to borrow for consumption, not for investing in their future.]

    I didnt hear the interview, but is this observation correct?

  34. So long as Labor fight tribe against tribe, so long will they be a little party, a silly party, greedy, barbarous, and cruel.

    The factional culture of the party corrodes its sense of public purpose. The party behaves as a job agency for political careerists who go on to lucrative careers as lobbyists, consultants, and corporate directors. There is no movement for change within Labor. People don’t see the relevance of the Labor party to their lives.

  35. [This new Labor is the same Coalition Party.]
    zoidy, your paranoia on internet monitoring and filtering is seriously warping your sense of reality.

  36. [ The Australian Greens’ new leader Senator Richard Di Natale has made an immediate appeal to the electoral mainstream, describing himself as a non-ideological bloke who entered politics simply to “get stuff done” ]
    This suggests he intends to employ a degree of pragmatism, which will surely alienate the ideologically pure Greens, especially those on PB who despise even the merest thought of pragmatism

  38. @It’s Time/985

    Nope, Labor’s policy on this subject is the same as Coalition Party, as is other policies.

    They are copy and paste of Coalition Party.

    Calling people names or calling them paranoia will not work with me, as that just makes you look weak, just like the Labor Party.

  39. Nicholas

    [The factional culture of the party corrodes its sense of public purpose. The party behaves as a job agency for political careerists who go on to lucrative careers as lobbyists, consultants, and corporate directors.]

    And it has to stop! Politics should be a passion not a path to a better career.

  41. victoria

    Yes , I thought people were more into paying down debt at the mo. Or so I keep reading. Most of the low interest rate effect seems to be adding fuel to house price inflation. Yaaay, more in mortgage repayments to banks and less on the discretionary spending small business relies on.

  42. [So long as Labor fight tribe against tribe, so long will they be a little party, a silly party, greedy, barbarous, and cruel.]

    Spoken as Lawrence or Feisal?

  43. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, May 6, 2015 at 6:24 pm | PERMALINK
    I too, am wondering if it would be better for the ALP to lose the next election and let the coalition wallow in tbeir own swill. The problem is we have wallow with them.    ]

    I was thinking of you when I posted that Puff. I remembered your comments on it a few weeks ago.

    IMO what the Australian people really need to see is these economic geniuses – these alleged adults – thoroughly humiliated and totally unable to deal with Australia’s current economic needs, as is already apparent to those who understand these things. Their false reputation as the better economic managers needs to be destroyed once and for all. Only then will Australia start to get the policies that a just and fair society needs in the 21st century.

  49. Evening all.

    Not surprising that Milne quit as Greens leader. She was invisible in the media and simply not cutting through.

    But how can a new leader be elected so quickly? Don’t Greens members get a vote?

  50. Meanwhile, Labor sits in an election winning position in the polls as the Green cabal chatter away in their usual meaningless way.

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