ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

An automated phone poll by ReachTEL finds Labor maintaining a strong lead, but a small-sample Morgan phone poll shows worrying signs for Bill Shorten.

The Seven Network brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention, which was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 2532, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for the Coalition, 39.3% for Labor, 11.9% for the Greens and 2.2% for Palmer United. Further questions find strong support for increasing the tax rate on superannuation contributions for high-income earners, at 57.2% with 22.1% opposed, but an even balance of 30.7% support and 31.8% opposition for removing negative gearing on future property purchases. The poll also records 56.1% support for imposing the GST on purchases from overseas companies with 22.3% opposed. Leadership approval questions find a shift for Tony Abbott from “very poor” to “satisfactory”, with Bill Shorten’s numbers broadly unchanged. Hat tip to Leroy Lynch.

There’s considerably less good news for Bill Shorten in a Morgan phone poll on party leadership, which shows Tony Abbott leading him 44-39 as preferred prime minister – the first poll to show Abbott in the lead since November. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are little changed since the last such poll conducted in mid-January, before the Prince Philip knighthood and leadership spill vote, with his approval steady on 37% and disapproval up one to 53%. Bill Shorten, however, is respectively down three to 34% and up eight to 48%.

With respect to preferred Labor and Liberal leaders, Morgan finds Shorten losing his lead over Tanya Plibersek, who now has 23% support (up five) to Shorten’s 21% (down four), with Anthony Albanese up three to 13% and Wayne Swan steady on 10%. Tony Abbott has lost still more ground in comparison with Malcolm Turnbull (up two points as preferred Liberal leader to 38%) and Julie Bishop (up one to 27%), with his own rating down two to 12%. Scott Morrison is up three to 5%, putting him level with Joe Hockey, who has fallen heavily from favour since the government came to power.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred, putting their lead at 53-47. The Coalition and the Greens are both down a point on the primary vote, to 40% and 10%, while Labor is steady on 39% and Palmer United is up one to 2%. Other findings:

• The poll shows 40% support for changes to the Senate electoral system to make it harder for micro-parties to get elected, with 33% opposed. Forty-two per cent said minor parties in the Senate were good for democracy, while 35% favoured the alternative proposition that they made government too unstable.

• Fifty-two per cent say they are not confident the government is on track to return the budget to surplus, with 36% confident; 31% believe doing so is very important, 40% somewhat important, and 14% not important.

• Seventy-seven per cent approve of government measures to withhold benefits from parents who do not get their children vaccinated.

• Seventy per cent say the gap between rich and poor in Australia is getting bigger, only 5% say smaller, and 17% say it is about the same.

UPDATE 2: Greens supporters on Twitter are taking umbrage at the wording of the following Essential Research question:

The Coalition, Labor and the Greens all support changes that would make it harder for small parties to be elected to Senate. Would you approve or disapprove of such changes?

And I agree to the extent that I don’t think they should be providing partisan respondents with cues as to what their party’s position is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,475 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur @ 190: As it happens, I’ve visited both Hiroshima and Nagasaki, including the A-bomb museums, so I have no doubt about the horrors of August 1945.

    But the question I was raising was not about the nature of the bombings, but of how it could be remotely reasonable for Australians to be expected to feel responsible for them.

    I’ve seen no evidence that the Australian government of the time played any role in the decision to use the bombs, nor am I aware of evidence that Mr Chifley even knew of the Manhattan Project. I’d be interested to be corrected on that if anyone has evidence to the contrary.

  2. GG

    I think Greg Barnes has better legal knowledge than you so I will take his comment of not a case a court will entertain over yours.

    Yes I know he was being hyperbolic to make the point.

  3. Michael

    Not an opinion worth sacking someone for that is the point. I did not say I agreed with it in the context you put it. We are only responsible as a nation as far as being an ally entailed. That is all.

  5. GG

    SBS has to make a case for dismissal if the code of conduct is to be enforceable.

    It may not be as it is intruding into the private life of the employee and censoring his private views.

    Barnes was saying its the code of conduct about the private life that will fail.

    Watch Lateline on Iview and see for yourself.

  7. adrian

    [But when it comes to dissent against current orthodoxy it should be encouraged, not punished.]

    I’m not sure I agree totally. I’m sick to death, for example, with the dissent against the current worldwide orthodoxy that humans are causing climate change and it will have big impacts on all of us. Of course, the dissent in that case is driven by certain people for financial benefit or to avoid financial loss 🙂

    More generally, though, there is no problem with dissent against current orthodoxy and I have no difficulties – even where I disagree – with people expressing such. But people are entitled to take offence too – and to express that offence publicly. It is their free speech. The question though is whether the exercise of their free speech has implications for their employment or other formal relationships.

    For example, a few here have criticised Malcolm Turnbull’s expressed distaste for McIntyre’s comments because, as Minister for the SBS, he could be seen to have an impact on how the purportedly independent SBS deals with Mr McIntyre.

    Now, there is a legal relationship between Turnbull and the SBS, just as there was between McIntyre and the SBS. Though the relationships are of totally different character to each other, the fact is that we are, fairly, raising the issue of whether Turnbull’s freedom to express his views has consequences that are improper. In Turnbull’s case, whether he is bringing improper influence to bear on the SBS; in McIntyre’s case, whether his tweets will reflect adversely on the standing of the SBS in the community, given that he is a prominent face to a section of SBS viewers.

    Bottom line – dissent from the orthodoxy by all means, but don’t compromise others in the process or else face the consequences.

  8. guytaur @ 203: Not knowing all the facts, I wouldn’t have a view on whether or not Mr McIntyre should have been sacked. I have a sneaking respect for managers who stand by their staff, even when the latter stuff up. Sometimes, however, what finally becomes public is only the last in a long line of stuff ups; whether that’s so in this case, we just don’t know.

    On alliances, I can’t see how Australia’s having been an ally of the US makes Australia in any way answerable for the A-bombings. We were attacked by Japan, shortly after the attacks on Pearl Harbour, Malaya, Singapore etc. We perceived our national survival as being at stake, and Mr Curtin famously turned to America for help. The behaviour of the Americans at the time gave us no reason to believe that we were entering into a morally dubious alliance, of the sort that Nazi Germany’s allies entered. America, far from being seen as an imperial power, was having to be shaken out of a sustained period of isolationism.

  9. gg and g (199 and 200)

    McIntyre might have a case. That can play out in court. It’s just that the claim of ‘freedom of speech’ does not protect you from a range of consequences in exercising that freedom. Whether the consequence of his sacking was lawful, only time will tell.

  11. Michael @ 201: On the question I posed about Australian knowledge of the Manhattan Project: I’ve dug up a bit, via Wikipedia’s entry on Sir Mark Oliphant, who of course was deeply involved with it. Some links to historical documents flagging briefings through High Commissioner Bruce and others are at http://www.info.dfat.gov.au/info/historical/HistDocs.nsf/vSearch/1D95E8DBD173A89ECA256B7E001E3F8D?openDocument&start=1&Highlight=2,Burhop&SearchOrder=4 and http://www.info.dfat.gov.au/info/historical/HistDocs.nsf/vSearch/B298AB36DBE69D0BCA256D3B00156CE3?openDocument&start=1&Highlight=2,Oliphant&SearchOrder=4. The discussion is about securing expertise, and uranium ore, in support of the project. How much detail was provided to the government remains unclear from these, nor is it clear what ongoing briefings may have been available. This looks like an interesting topic for a small piece of historical research. I’ve still seen no evidence that Australia had any part to play in the decision to use the bombs.

  12. I agree that the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were war crimes.

    All the same, if the Japanese had access to nuclear weapons in 1945 does anyone think they would have thought twice about using them?

  14. 213

    Introducing proportional representation to Scotland`s Westminster seats will look more appealing to Labour now. The LibDems would be in favour as well.

  16. [this would see the SNP with 57 seats and the Labour and LibDems with one each]

    First past the post is a crap voting system.

  17. The AFRs Jennifer Hewitt on the ‘Dumb’ this evening:

    “the relationship between the Republic of Indonesia and the Republic of Australia”.

    FMD

  18. CTari;

    [First past the post is a crap voting system.]

    True…but with a primary vote of 54%, I suspect the SNP would take home at least 45-50 of Scotland’s seats even with an IRV system like Australia’s.

  20. Scotland
    _______
    The Scot Nats already hold a majority of seats in the Scottish P’Ment over all others … and I think they are by both local and regional seats ..the regions elected by PR

    I understand that the Nats may also go for a new poll for the Edinburgh P”ment in view of this remarkable vote…then perhaps a declaration of independence and goodbye to their old English oppressors.??..after all a century ago the Irish did the same after 1916..after the Easter rising

  21. [then perhaps a declaration of independence ]

    It’s getting close to the stage where the English may say go for it but don’t expect us to bail you.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    I’m sort of glad my international air travel days are probably over!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/airbus-tips-demand-for-bigger-planes-as-airlines-squeeze-in-more-passengers-20150427-1mu90v.html
    Does Mesma have a point here?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/islamic-state-bigger-threat-to-world-order-than-cold-war-communism-julie-bishop-20150427-1mujvf.html
    Hugh White puts it all into perspective for us.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/in-terror-conflating-the-threats-inflates-the-fear-20150427-1mtybi.html
    Are we getting sucked into something we may regret?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bali-nine-australia-considers-recalling-indonesian-ambassador-over-executions-20150427-1mue7q.html
    “View from the Street” examines Hockey’s “luck”, SSM and the Dr Karl fiasco.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-joe-hockey-and-the-excitement-of-prebudget-fever-20150427-1muh3d.html
    I’m a BHP shareholder but I hope the ATO succeeds. And it has fired up the Senate inquisitors again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bhp-billiton-reveals-minuscule-singapore-tax-bill-as-ato-chases-it-for-500m-20150427-1muetk.html
    Something else to make you sick.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/tax-man-loses-400m-a-year-as-employers-rob-workers-of-superannuation-20150427-1msnso.html
    What has Dan Andrews uncovered here?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-government-claims-853-million-gonski-education-funding-black-hole-20150427-1mulda.html
    This will be an interesting class action to follow.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/docklands-apartment-tower-fire-fuelled-by-material-in-buildings-walls-says-mfb-20150427-1mukhx.html
    David Ipp, a former ICAC Commissioner, writes that ICAC’s powers must be restored.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-icac-powers-to-investigate-corruption-must-be-restored-20150427-1mty9l.html

  24. Section 2 . . .

    More and more scorn is being piled upon Adani and its big coal mining proposal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/adani-mining-feels-heat-over-14b-galilee-basin-coal-mine-gap-20150427-1mud1h.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/27/adani-coalmine-would-not-deliver-jobs-and-royalties-promised-land-court-hears
    The stunning mendacity of Hunt’s abatement statement.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/4/27/policy-politics/stunning-mediocrity-minister-hunts-abatement-auction
    Paul Bongiorno explains the interesting tactics being employed to trim the costs of the PBS. Stand by for the Pharmacists’ “union” to go troppo.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/04/27/bitter-pill-chemists-patients-budget-surgery-continues/
    David Marr on the probable constitutional crisis that will follow the UK general election.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/24/british-politics-the-calm-before-the-constitutional-storm
    Peter Martin gives Scott Morrison plenty of curry over his comments on negative gearing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/negative-gearers-are-the-opposite-of-battlers-and-they-dont-build-many-new-homes-20150427-1msy10.html
    Michelle Grattan on the SSM issue brings Abbott’s sister’s stance into the discussion.
    https://theconversation.com/abbotts-sister-urges-liberals-to-consider-gay-marriage-conscience-vote-this-year-40843
    Billy Gordon hits back at “grub” Springborg.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/27/billy-gordon-asks-afp-to-investigate-release-of-information-about-his-children

  26. BK

    [I’m sort of glad my international air travel days are probably over!]

    I’ve been over doing 26 in the air for a long time.

    One more time, I guess.

  27. It is likely that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were war crimes.

    But was the decision moral?

    And were there other relevant considerations?

    The leader of the USN had already indicated to Truman that the Navy probably could not take the battering that would have involved invading he Home Islands.

    The casualties involved in invading the Home Islands would likely have far exceeded a million dead.

    Millions of people in China and SEA were, literally, starving.

    Tens of thousands of POWs were dying at a rate of 10% per year, with the rate increasing. One of these was my father.

    I don’t buy that the Japanese wanted to surrender.

    All they had to do was announce over the radio that they were surrendering and were ceasing all military operations forwith. The reality is that they were still in war fighting mode.

    So, a war crime, yes.

    Would I have given the order?

    Yes.

  29. If bog ordinary paracetemol is on the PBS, it shouldn’t be, and any responsible chemist would be advising their client to just grab a packet off the shelves (I’m fairly sure that’s what our local does).

  30. There is another matter relating: the propensity of the Japanese military to cajole or force large numbers of civilians to commit suicide following battle.

    This had already resulted in the deaths of many tens of thousands of civilians in, for example, Okinawa.

  32. UK Election update (Monday): Notwithstanding the article linked by CTar1 above, there is much chatter on t’internets tonight that the election may be turning the Conservatives way. The national polls published today : Lab +3, Con +3, Con +6, Con +1.

    The Con +6 is Lord Ashcroft’s national poll (0.5% swing to Lab since 2010).
    He has also published some more constituency polling showing Labour getting swings up to 8% in target seats however. They also show UKIP falling back in target seats.

    Nobody really knows………………..

  33. Morning all

    GG

    If you are around. Re the John Burns matter. It was not a waiter who overheard John Burns. It was a Richmond official

  35. zoomster

    I was recently introduced to a stronger, slow-release ‘paracetemol osteo’ which is taken daily for osteoarthritis. The doctor gave me a prescription. I’m wondering if this will be on the non-PBS list.

    I can’t see why a doctor would prescribe the ‘normal’ sort, available in supermarkets.

  36. Ray (UK)

    [Nobody really knows………………..]

    Getting to the stage that they as well get all candidates together and flip coins and save the cost of actually having a GE.

  38. lizzie

    Panadol Osteo is, as your doctor says, slow releasing, and thus better for chronic pain conditions such as arthritis (still take it for my hip occasionally, and my husband thinks it is more effective for migraines than normal panadol).

    Again, it’s cheaper to buy off the shelf.

    Good pharmacists tell you that when you give them the prescription.

  39. victoria

    Thank you. Yes, all very confusing. Not that long to go now though, if there is a move afoot the next 2 or 3 days polling should show it.

  40. So, McIntyre.

    I don’t dispute that SBS would have the right to terminate the employment of someone who knowingly or recklessly caused serious reputational damage to the organisation.

    My issues are
    A) what is the process by which this is determined?
    I am not personally sure that a decision by senior management in the space of a few hours based on a complaint by a politician and a twitter outrage storm is a convincing process.

    B) do the comments in this case actually meet that test?
    Also not convinced. Undoubtedly many people dislike what McIntyre said. I doubt few would stop watching him because of it.

  41. victoria

    I did, but left the room for a few minutes and missed that! Took me a while to work out what everyone was talking about…

  44. Of course it’s always heartening to see stalwarts of the party of the workers defending an ever-widening scope of managerial prerogative.

  46. MartinB

    their stated reason for the dismissal is that he was asked to delete the tweets and refused.

    Given that that request is a rather mild one, it wouldn’t take much angst to ask it.

    The question is now whether someone should be sacked for refusing to remove tweets, rather than the nature of the tweeting.

  47. BW

    [When you have children and grandchildren O/S the choices are not large.]

    I have one child only and she’s living in London but she usually visits twice a year. No children yet but a firm commitment that if they do they’ll have packed their bags and moved here – too much diesel particulate in the air in Central London to bring up a child there.

  48. zoomster

    Since I get 2 packets of the osteo version stuck together, for a pensioner’s PBS discount, and it isn’t in the supermarket, that’s definitely cheaper.

  49. Good Morning

    BW

    You are right of course about the nuclear bombing of Japan. Pointing out the reality of the war crime does not change the horror of the choices the generals and US President had.

    The odds of more deaths by using conventional means for victory is indeed not just the justification but the likely reality and is the only reason why there has not been massive opprobium and adverse consequences against the allies especially the US for doing the bombings.

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