The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan finds Labor improving from an unusually weak result last time, their primary vote up two points to 38% with the Coalition down two to 38.5%. The Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point, to 12% and a new low of 1% respectively. However, the respondent-allocated two-party result is steady at 53-47, the preference flow evidently being less favourable to Labor compared with a fortnight ago, and the shift on 2013 preference flows is also rather modest, from 53-47 to 54-46. As usual, the poll was conducted over two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, the sample on this occasion being 3314. I believe this and the regular Essential poll are the only federal polling we’ll be seeing this week.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in Essential Research’s voting intention numbers this week are a one point gain for the Greens to 11% and a one point drop for Palmer United to 1%, leaving Labor on 39%, the Coalition on 41% and Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. Further questions have been framed with the looming budget in mind, the most striking finding being that 56% believe the Coalition’s policies favour the rich over the “average Australian” (20%), with Labor scoring a fairly balanced response over the available options. Relatedly, it is anticipated that the budget will be good for the well off (49% good, 9% bad) and business (32% good, 17% bad), but very bad for everybody else and for the economy overall (19% good, 33% bad). Eighty-two per cent of respondents signed on to the proposition that “some companies” and “some wealthy people” didn’t pay their fair share of tax. Out of seven listed economic issues, the cost of living rated highest as an issue of concern (87%) with the national debt and budget deficit tied for last place (63%). Opinion on the latest Iraq commitment is fairly evenly balanced, with 40% approval and 44% disapproval.
Peter Reith
[Today’s situation is of course very different to previous challenges, but not as great as it was in opposition in 1990. The principal problem today is that some key Senators are pretty average, the opposition is more opportunistic than usual and the government is being denied the mandate given at the last election. Worse still, Labor does not even accept that rising debt is a problem and if Labor were to be re-elected Australia’s future would be even more at risk.]
This enthusiasm for a DD really annoys me. Everyone I have read or heard on the subject (including journos) is essentially saying: The government can’t pass its legislation because the Senate is a rabble. Toss em out and let the Coalition get on with the job they were elected to do.
Not one of these commentators or Lib supporters suggests that the Senate is not passing the laws because they are neither effective nor fair. And the cheek of saying that the Opposition is ‘more opportunistic than usual’ is so brazen it’s not even amusing.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/double-dissolution-may-be-a-solution-to-policy-deadlock-20150420-1morr9.html
Rupert at it –
[Rupert Murdoch berated Sun journalists for not doing enough to attack Ed Miliband ]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/rupert-murdoch-berated-sun-journalists-for-not-doing-enough-to-attack-ed-miliband-10191005.html
Chortle.
[Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has shown his lighter side, finishing a glass of limited release Bordeaux and a bowl of lightly salted basil-and-thyme crackers in less than half an hour.
Egged on by his dinner guests at his harbour-side home, Mr Turnbull said he was proud of the achievement. “It takes me back to my uni days when we’d knock back a Barossa Shiraz without even decanting it,” he said.]
http://www.theshovel.com.au/2015/04/20/malcolm-turnbull-downs-a-glass-of-1998-bordeaux-in-under-26-minutes/
Happy birthday BK. Have a wonderful day.
BK,
A great man (of whose work I believe you have more than a passing acquaintance) once said,
[Learning is not compulsory… neither is survival.]
That you are both learned and a survivor is worthy of celebration. Happy Birthday.
@political_alert: Greens have released a discussion paper of policies to crack down on tax avoidance by multinationals http://t.co/4hP0PM5JT6 #auspol
Have a wonderful Birthday BK and many many more to come 🙂
Certainly been a wet, wild and windy night in Sydney and worse in the Hunter district to the North. Winds on the coastal fringe have been equivalent to a category 2 cyclone, sustained winds 90-100km/h, gusts up to 135 km/h at Newcastle & Norah Head (about 90 km North of Sydney). Sydney had nearly 120mm in the 24 hours to 9:00, some North Shore locations over 170mm.
Re Zoomster @203: but he didn’t scholl a schooner or a yard glass?
BK: congratulations on attaining septuagenarionhood and many happy returns.
Happy Birthday BK!
[Lizzie
Posted Tuesday, April 21, 2015 at 9:01 am | PERMALINK
Peter Reith
Today’s situation is of course very different to previous challenges, but not as great as it was in opposition in 1990. The principal problem today is that some key Senators are pretty average, the opposition is more opportunistic than usual and the government is being denied the mandate given at the last election. Worse still, Labor does not even accept that rising debt is a problem and if Labor were to be re-elected Australia’s future would be even more at risk.
This enthusiasm for a DD really annoys me. Everyone I have read or heard on the subject (including journos) is essentially saying: The government can’t pass its legislation because the Senate is a rabble. Toss em out and let the Coalition get on with the job they were elected to do.
Not one of these commentators or Lib supporters suggests that the Senate is not passing the laws because they are neither effective nor fair. And the cheek of saying that the Opposition is ‘more opportunistic than usual’ is so brazen it’s not even amusing.]
Lizzie
I think Reith and his fellow travellers who are arguing this line are living in dream land.
If a DD is brought on, all of the very unpopular legislation that the Senate rejected from the 2014 budget will be front and centre again – and all Labor will have to do is tell the voters – if you vote Liberal again this is what you will get. The script writes itself.
Rather than being angry with those promoting the idea of a DD I am hoping that the Liberals are stupid enough to listen to them and heed their bidding. Unfortunately I don’t think even the Liberals are that dumb.
Walking to work today in Sydney (luckily a short walk!), you realise the futility of carrying an umbrella. The streets are strewn with broken umbrellas – casualties of the winds. You can see people coming to the realisation that they’re going to get wet whatever happens.
Happy Birthday BK!
@political_alert: CHOICE says 67% of Australians concerned about federal budget; open to tax reform but oppose GST changes http://t.co/BQw1uwsRHQ #auspol
Regarding 215
This means Labor is on exactly the right track with its approach to tax at the moment.
Kudos to the strategists. 🙂
guytaur
I wonder what they think “tax reform” means. I bet everyone has their own definition 😀
Happy Birthday BK. Thank you so much for your morning newspaper links.
[Following a series of Gallipoli-themed television programs failing to attract big audience numbers and increasing sensitivities about commercial interests appearing to exploit an event loaded with sacrosanct sensitivities, network bosses are now pulling back on their original plans.
. . .
Several media executives have now started to wonder if audiences have developed a case of Gallipoli fatigue, opting for fluffier shows like My Kitchen Rules instead of tuning into the grim reality of a war that shaped much of our national psyche. ]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/ww1/stars-pulled-as-networks-get-cold-feet-on-gallipoli-20150420-1mos5g.html
[I think Reith and his fellow travellers who are arguing this line are living in dream land.]
Reith’s article was extraordinary.
He thinks they should have a DD but he also thinks the legislation they currently have is rubbish, so he thinks they should quickly get together sone real cuttin’, slashin’, budget-savin’ bills and use those to engineer a DD.
Triple nuts.
kakaru
[you realise the futility of carrying an umbrella]
And it’s not like we’re used to London type weather. If it got to half way through Autumn and you didn’t have 6 cans of Scotchguard stored away you are in trouble.
lizzie
I know i have developed Gallipolli fatigue
[On unis, standards and cheating, we seem to be once again in the realms of ‘there once was a Golden Age’ when these things didn’t happen.]
Always sensible to avoid the arcadian fallacy, but it would also be foolish not to accept that the nature of university education, and the working conditions under which it is administered have changed significantly over the last few decades.
[Several media executives have now started to wonder if audiences have developed a case of Gallipoli fatigue]
Only yesterday we were saying the exact same thing. I know I have Anzac fatigue!
The issue of OS students is not one of race but of class. Not exclusively, but disproportionately they are drawn from quite privileged families with the sense of entitlement that background can inculcate, and are in that respect quite similar to anglo-aus kids from the same background.
I also have Anzac fatigue. For me, it’s the sense of being force-fed too much Anzac-themed pap that very little to do with the horrific reality of the actual war.
victoria@183
Well done by your daughter!
I delight in seeing women succeed in such courses where, in my day, there were no women.
kakuru:
This weekend our town is hosting what can only be described as an Anzac festival: live music, street markets, art. And that’s on top of the usual dawn service, troop march and 2-up the RSL puts on.
It’s completely over the top. I just hope it’s only this year, being the centenary and then it’s back to the usual next year.
I work at a university. For a long time there have been mutterings by junior academics that plagiarism and cheating by International Students is common, but that their superiors don’t want to hear about it.
Our town has its own VC recipient (from the first World War).
Although there is a street and the local swimming pool named after him, and a few photos in key locales, the town has been relatively quiet about him.
This is because what most locals who knew him remember was a man mentally scarred by war, whom basically (from all accounts) wasn’t ‘presentable’ (putting it very politely).
Now that he’s long gone, as are his contemparies, we are, of course, starting to celebrate him.
Anyone remember how much the govt chipped in to encourage ‘celebrations’ throughout the country?
And happy birthday to BK.
I greatly appreciate your links. Now I just have to find the time to read them all. 😆
confessions
[This weekend our town is hosting what can only be described as an Anzac festival: live music, street markets, art]
That’s exactly what I mean. I’ve got nothing against using an historical event like the Gallipoli campaign to bring a community together. But when money starts changing hands, I’m very uneasy. (Two-up excepted, of course.)
Re: Higher education, international students, etc.
In the 1990s my sister worked for a time at the RMIT International Students unit as a coordinator. Essentially managemement viewed SE Asia as a ‘cash cow’ with wealthy families wanting to send their children o/s to study.
Unfortunately this was the same time as Crown Casino had just opened in Melbourne and one of my sister’s more odious tasks was to chase up students who were not attending classes … but rather spending their days at the Casino wasting their parent’s money. On more than one occassion my sister had to contact these students parents back home to send more cash to bail these students out.
In the end she resigned becoming (a) completely disallusioned with RMIT and their attitude towards this market as a way of making money and (b) having to continually chase up students to attend classes rather than gambling at the casino or working with no intention of ever studying and (c) contacting the families for money to prop up these students.
In the end the Asian financial crash killed this market virtually overnight and placed RMIT in a very dangerous position as they had put all their eggs in one basket so to speak.
This was also the time that Crown used to have minibuses trawling Chinatown in the Melbourne CBD for prospective ‘customers’
Steven Grant Haby@235
Casinos like Crown are little more than organised crime with a government franchise.
[I work at a university. For a long time there have been mutterings by junior academics that plagiarism and cheating by International Students is common, but that their superiors don’t want to hear about it.]
One of the perverse outcomes of the processes pretty much all unis put in place to show that they were serious about plagiarism is that they involve such an official and serious procedure that there is an incentive to sweep it under the carpet, or deal with it informally.
[Always sensible to avoid the arcadian fallacy, but it would also be foolish not to accept that the nature of university education, and the working conditions under which it is administered have changed significantly over the last few decades.]
[But when money starts changing hands, I’m very uneasy.]
Plus it’s the pious posturing by politicians trying to riff some political benefit off the event that is doubly annoying.
So less than a week after the OECD published a very intelligent and considered 82 page paper on the difficulties of measuring BEPS the greens publish a very short paper based on the assumption doing so is easy and obvious. Fighting BEPS can be done, but it won’t be with inept and dishonest efforts like this from the greens.
Even sadder that this rubbish document contains two interesting and good proposals with respect to resourcing the ATO and protecting corp whistle blowers.
Here’s my experience in doing a Masters Degree.
I did Year 1 and 2 of my Masters Degree in 1990-91, when such things were rare. The rigour of the course was incredible, the theoretical knowledge needed was extensive, the markers tough, but boy did I learn my field.
Fast forward to 2002-03, after a lengthy deferral I completed Year 3-4. The course, now full fee was dumbed down beyond recognition. Expertise in theory no longer needed, essays were just work place observations, and assessments were made from an online weekly chat session with provided readings. Could have done it in my sleep.
Zoomster
Of course in my day 90% of kids went to university on scholarship so they already had proven academic ability. Very few needed to cheat to survive. Since it was 80% -100% exam assessment cheating was difficuilt. Now not sure how it worked in Arts but in science medicine etc, you KNEW the other students because you shared prac reports so the scope for “substitution was minimal. Not saying it dis not happen but I was not aware of it.
EduBludger today.
I would be more impressed with the Gallipoli coverage if TV stations played Wilfred Owen’s famous and gut-wrenching poem ‘Dulce et decorum est’ during their ad breaks ..instead of trying to profit from the terrible tragedy..
Wilfred Owen
Dulce Et Decorum Est
“Bent double, like old beggars under sacks,
Knock-kneed, coughing like hags, we cursed through sludge,
Till on the haunting flares we turned our backs
And towards our distant rest began to trudge.
Men marched asleep. Many had lost their boots
But limped on, blood-shod. All went lame; all blind;
Drunk with fatigue; deaf even to the hoots
Of disappointed shells that dropped behind.
GAS! Gas! Quick, boys!– An ecstasy of fumbling,
Fitting the clumsy helmets just in time;
But someone still was yelling out and stumbling
And floundering like a man in fire or lime.–
Dim, through the misty panes and thick green light
As under a green sea, I saw him drowning.
In all my dreams, before my helpless sight,
He plunges at me, guttering, choking, drowning.
If in some smothering dreams you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,–
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.”
http://www.english.emory.edu/LostPoets/Dulce.html
..or play the video of Christopher Hitchens reciting it from memory:
https://youtu.be/1la_ykW3n2g
Electrical Engineering is one of the hardest uni bachelors courses you can undertake.
[I would be more impressed with the Gallipoli coverage if TV stations played Wilfred Owen’s famous and gut-wrenching poem ‘Dulce et decorum est’ during their ad breaks ..instead of trying to profit from the terrible tragedy..]
I always preferred Owen’s ‘Strange Meeting’ but it might be a bit long to the punch line for your average TV audience.
sometimes things just don’t work out properly
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/french-tourists-who-burnt-rottnest-quokka-choose-jail-over-4000-fines-20150420-1mp5l8.html
one would hope these two are taken straight from jail to Perth airport
Confessions
[Plus it’s the pious posturing by politicians trying to riff some political benefit off the event that is doubly annoying.]
Agreed. The bandwagon rolls on.
The line
[I am the enemy you killed, my friend ]
Deserves application to current conflicts.
dtt
sorry, but when I was at Melbourne Uni there was plenty of cheating in Maths/Science/Medicine courses, particularly exams. As they had mass examinations, where hundreds of students from different faculties sat exams at the same time in the same room, it was relatively easy (as in the case I cited) for someone else to sit exams.
Students from the Engineering faculty famously created a bogus student, who successfully graduated. All of this student’s work, and exams, were taken by a variety of students from the year above.
There was also a strong culture of not ‘dobbing’ amongst students. It was widely known, for example, that the girl I referred to before was cheating, but she was found out purely by chance. If she’d handed in her library books on time, she probably would have graduated without a problem.