Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Roy Morgan poll records a slight move back to Labor, after last fortnight’s result gave the Coalition its best result since October.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan finds Labor improving from an unusually weak result last time, their primary vote up two points to 38% with the Coalition down two to 38.5%. The Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point, to 12% and a new low of 1% respectively. However, the respondent-allocated two-party result is steady at 53-47, the preference flow evidently being less favourable to Labor compared with a fortnight ago, and the shift on 2013 preference flows is also rather modest, from 53-47 to 54-46. As usual, the poll was conducted over two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, the sample on this occasion being 3314. I believe this and the regular Essential poll are the only federal polling we’ll be seeing this week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in Essential Research’s voting intention numbers this week are a one point gain for the Greens to 11% and a one point drop for Palmer United to 1%, leaving Labor on 39%, the Coalition on 41% and Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. Further questions have been framed with the looming budget in mind, the most striking finding being that 56% believe the Coalition’s policies favour the rich over the “average Australian” (20%), with Labor scoring a fairly balanced response over the available options. Relatedly, it is anticipated that the budget will be good for the well off (49% good, 9% bad) and business (32% good, 17% bad), but very bad for everybody else and for the economy overall (19% good, 33% bad). Eighty-two per cent of respondents signed on to the proposition that “some companies” and “some wealthy people” didn’t pay their fair share of tax. Out of seven listed economic issues, the cost of living rated highest as an issue of concern (87%) with the national debt and budget deficit tied for last place (63%). Opinion on the latest Iraq commitment is fairly evenly balanced, with 40% approval and 44% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

934 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. briefly

    A peaceful middle east could push out the US, with muddled conflict there will always be a side that is open to their presence – that’s what I figure, in that sense the existing conflict does not necessarily undermine US strategic interests.

    Definitely agree though that if Iran is able to use the conflict to cement dominance over the area then the US involvement will have completely back-fired. It is a real possibility I would think – expect the US to change sides and fight against Iran in Iraq if that starts to look likely.

  2. mimhoff – are universities required to publicly publish their finances? I guess that would provide an answer. If they are not perhaps they should be…

  3. Also, on US middle eastern strategy – anytime we think a powerful group is stupidly acting against their own interests I would say it is worth considering first if we may have misunderstood what their true interests are.

    E.g. if I thought Tony Abbott was acting in Australia’s best interests I would have to judge him as an idiot. If instead I judge him as driving an agenda to discredit and land-mine politics in Australia for years to come I would have to consider him a genius.

    The best example I have ever come across of the US military industrial complex surprising me with their foresight was a 1990’s defence white-paper on preparing the military for a post peak-oil world and the critical importance of investing in and building a full range of military hardware powered by alternative energy sources. The military generally being seen as the rightest of right wing it was surprising to see them accept as fact lefty notions of climate change and peak oil that the right wing have been deriding for decades. Publicly their was a refusal to accept the facts but privately they were acting on them.

  4. Even by the standards of PB, the amount of sheer garbage vomited into this comment thread since the Four Corners program is pretty impressive.

    The reality is, as always, somewhere between the ideal of tertiary education and the market driven free-for-all the cynics assume. Certainly text matching software such as Turn It In has helped greatly in catching the worst of the plagiarists; but equally certainly the influx of foreign students has caused a drop in standards for that minority who are determined to exploit the system.

  5. I am going to provide a dissenting voice to general consensus here that 4 Corners has uncovered a systemic corruption problem within our universities. I lecture in physics at a GO8 university, and I can tell you that we fail every one equally.

    I can also tell you that I have students who have difficulties with English, but who can still make sense in talking about physics – you can tell the difference very quickly between those who understand the physics, but who need to make extra efforts to communicate their knowledge because their English is poor, compared to those who just do not get the physics – language skills not withstanding.

    I also teach an online “General Education” course, and can tell you that we pick up plagiarism very quickly and act on it. As Zoomster said above, she noticed a Letter to the Editor in her local paper did not sound right, and she Googled a phrase and quickly came up with an Andrew Bolt article which the letter writer had plagiarized.

    “We”, me and my tutors, agree that you can very quickly pick plagiarised work – some subconscious pattern-matching software in our brains. If we are suspicious, we use the “TurnItIn” software, which will find instances where there are more than 7 consecutive words in a submitted assignment that match the impressive database that TurnItIn holds of all submitted work, anywhere in the world. We also use the “phrase” search in Google, which usually identifies the work from which the student has plagiarised.

    The “General Education” online course I teach has 300 students per session, from all disciplines. If we find as many as 5 instances of plagiarism out of the 300, it is a bad session. I immediately refer these cases to the person in my area who deals with plagiarism, and all cases are dealt with without my explicit input. My institution seems happy for me to use this system.

    I am not saying that in some departments at some universities there not a problem, but I worry the problem is overstated and overhyped.

    As far as Australian Universities needing to “lower their standards” to accept overseas students, this just does not stack up. The overseas students are generally very hard working and diligent, and some analysis I have done suggests that in my discipline, physics, they do a bit better than the home grown students.

    So, I think 4 Corners, who are no doubt well-meaning, have uncovered some areas where standards may be need to be tightened, but to tar the whole Australian Education system with this slur is neither correct, or helpful.

    Also, it has been an academic pursuit for as long as I remember, and far before my time to be convinced that the “Students are getting dumber and lazier”, and “our standards are dropping”. See e.g. http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=01f_1314340424.

  6. the_drewski There are close similarities between our education system and medical system. Both are captured by select interests (doctors and university administrations) and are not held sufficiently accountable for the costs they incur nor the benefits they deliver to their customers (students & patients).

    Worth considering – if doctors salaries were halved we would still have sufficient numbers of doctors graduating and working in the industry, doctors would still be paid well above the average income and hundred’s of millions of dollars would be freed up to spend on preventative and educational health programs that would reduce the burden on the system overall. The reason this does not occur is confusion around the issues, the market is always right mentality and the inability to combat entrenched (self-entitled) operators.

  7. Douglas and Milko what you say simply does not add up with my experience across 3 universities and graduate and post graduate studies. For every 5 cheaters you catch plagiarising 50 will pass un-noticed and you have no way of identifying students paying others to do their work for them – particularly in units where their are no exams and no face to face contact.

    Question for you – if a paraphrased every single line in someone else’s assignment (or a Journal or textbook) and omitted some of the references would your software pick it up? It wouldn’t. Only 1 out of 100 students who intend to cheat would be stupid enough to copy word for word right – after all they are told repeatedly that they will be caught if they do so.

  8. As always administrators and teachers are a step behind. You have caught up to (and prevented) the way students cheated in the 80’s and 90’s. You are now facing a P2P (peer to peer) world – that is the world of your students and the means by which they cheat. Your systems are incapable of acting peer to peer cheating and this is why you catch less than 10% of cheaters involved.

    Universities (including teachers and students) are unable to fully expose the truth as it devalues their income sources, respectability and position and perception of their qualification respectively.

  9. Funny, Luke, I’m doing post-grad study right now and I have to say maybe we just have a better class of lecturer than you did – ours make us tailor our major assignments to individually relevant case studies or a specific piece of research.

    No doubt I could pay someone to write my assignments for me, and there’s little a university can do (or has ever been able to do) about that, but the other obvious methods of cheating are much harder to do in a well designed modern university course.

    Determined cheaters will find ways to beat the system, of course – but your certainty that such malevolent cheating is endemic is, I think, unreasonably cynical.

  10. Luke @ 160

    My discipline may be a bit different, but we have exams, and if the students do not pass the exams, they do not pass the course.

    Also, we are VERY GOOD at statistics, so the odd student who does really well in assignments but cannot pass the exam stands out like dogs balls.

    And as teh_drewski points out, we ask assignment questions that are unique and you would have to get a real specialist to write your assignment for you. Even if you do this, then you still need to get through a final exam.

    Back in the middle ages, when I was a student, some people did cheat. They inevitable failed final exams etc.,

    If you are smart enough to cheat well, then you realise pretty quickly that it is simpler, cheaper and easier to just do the work and do your own assignments.

  11. the_drewski Certainly I have had really involved lecturers (particularly at RMIT) that were as you describe – but once again, this completely fails to catch peer to peer cheating which is what the majority is.

    And it is not endemic to Australian students (but does occur) but IS endemic with large numbers of foreign students.

    This is not a racist statement – if Aussies were in the unique position of international students they would do the same.

    Look at the picture – the majority of foreign students (particularly from asia) come from parents who place a huge emphasis on education and are spending a bucketload on their children’s education. If a student fails a significant number of units (which they will owing to their English ability – not lack of effort) they will lose their visa, disappoint their parents, be treated as a failure & miss out on huge benefits and prestige in their own country.

    Failure for the international student = doom. This is not so for the majority of Australian students. This is of course not true of international students who have the english understanding to successfully complete their course. It is the students who have deficient English comprehension and who are not prepared to put in the 10 fold effort it would take to pass a unit when you lack the skills to understand and communicate the language it is taught in.

  12. “This is not a racist statement but”

    Again – I think you’re being greatly, greatly cynical here. There is no doubt a minority of international students for whom the fear of losing their visa and being sent home is greater than their fear of being, you know, kicked out of the university and sent home…but I suspect it is not nearly as high as you assume.

  13. If your university performs better in these areas I would say you probably have adhere to higher English language requirements – I would say this is true of Australia’s leading universities but not the mid-range.

    It is also very much course dependent from observation. I have studied across environmental, arts, science and mathematics and business units. Business units had much higher numbers (in raw numbers and as a %) of foreign students with English deficiencies. My perusal of enrolment statistics would back up that business units attract proportionally more foreign students than many other disciplines.

  14. teh_drewski It is not fear of losing their visa but the reality of losing their visa.

    It is a pity you cast the “its not racism but” accusation at me when I made it clear that I would expect Australians (of all ethnicities) to act in the same manner.

    Racism is expecting different results from different races based upon identical situations. I made it very clear the results would be the same regardless of race.

  15. also apologies regarding my own English tonight – some is definitely the spell checker but some from tiredness! E.g. I know when to use there/their, you/they etc 🙂 Nobodies perfect 😉

    To close my opinion – I agree with an earlier poster that better policing of English language ability before commencing Australian studies would probably stamp out what I believe to be endemic cheating amongst students lacking sufficient English language skills.

    In terms of testing in a manner that eliminates the possibility of cheating I would point you to the GSAT which I have sat. Virtually impossible to cheat shy of bribing the exam supervisor.

    It involves randomised exam questions from a huge set per student rather than per class/per unit in a camera and physically supervised environment with anonymous computer supplemented marking. It is a requirement to get into any highly regarded university business course in the world.

  16. And I’m sure it’s very good at fulfilling that purpose, but that doesn’t mean it should be the model for all tertiary level proof of learning.

    Better policing of English requirements is certainly something the tertiary sector needs to be looked at, especially at the second tier and lower universities (the Go8 is pretty hardline about English standards) but let’s just say that I have some personal experience with the student visa program in Australia and that while the “no pass, no visa” idea might be something that students are scared of, it is in no way close to reality.

  17. teh_drewski Can you explain the reasons you believe the no pass n visa idea does not scare international students. BTW I am referring to them losing their student visa NOT their right to immigrate to Australia if you have misunderstood me.

    The basis of my rationale has been detailed discussions with foreign students in my classes & longstanding friendships with ex foreign students now Australian residents.

    For the record I have tutored foreign students in English (I am a qualified English teacher, although that is not my current profession), lived with foreign students in share-housing, completed group assignments with foreign students, worked with foreign students and have longstanding friendships…

    I have also known incredibly talented foreign students that had English skills and general academic abilities far in excess of almost all the Australian students I have ever met and students who had crap English but had to be commended for the 70+ hours per week they put into their studies (whilst myself and other Aussie students put in around 20) in order to end up with high grades.

    People who are academically gifted or skilled in English have no need to cheat and large amounts of both are amongst foreign students.

    Average students with deficient English skills who find it easier/more practical to cheat also exist in large numbers and universities appear to wilfully turn a blind eye to them out of what I would say is mutual (short-term) interest.

    For my mind the GSAT model can be used with every possible course – not wholly on its own, but as a requirement to pass alongside pass marks for assignments and practical work. Basically pass your prac, pass your assignment, pass your randomised, individual exam and pass the unit. Score markedly higher in one form over the others and be flagged for further investigation.

  18. Regardless of views on the number or percentage of students who cheat perhaps we could all agree that where it is cost effective universities should take care to design their education delivery to inhibit as much as possible the ability to cheat.

    1. (Universities already do this) – use software to analyse assignment text for word for word copying (note this will not eliminate assignment fraud – the most popular modern form of cheating but will eliminate old style cheating which people over 40 are more familiar with).

    2. Use modern technology to deliver exams (computers – not pencil and paper!) in order to provide randomised questions per student where questions are shown one at a time with no ability to skip forward (or back) during the exam to change an answer. This eliminates toilet break cheating & ‘getting sick’ and doing the test after your peers style cheating as well as teacher assisted student teaching (e.g. providing exam questions to struggling students to memorise before the test).

    3. Have exams take place in well supervised environments with randomised multiple inspectors (this eliminates note based cheating and supervisor bribery)

    4. Have students supply photographic student ID before sitting every exam (and use significant security measures within the ID to prevent fraud.

    5. Include multiple forms of assessment (prac, exam & assignment) & flag any students that perform significantly worse in exams vs assignments for further investigation (this stops assignment service fraud).

    Failure to follow each of these steps leaves a a significant window to cheat in all courses where there is little or no practical testing (the majority of tertiary courses outside of medicine and teaching).

    At present we have a system where there are incentives, motivation & ability to cheat and perverse incentives for universities and educators and other students to turn a blind eye to it. Whatever the level of current cheating it is reasonably easy to take steps to eliminate most of the current forms it takes. Most cheating is not assignment plagiarising as has been made out by others but assignment, exam and identity fraud which requires additional steps to police which current procedures at our universities do not meaningfully inhibit from those intending to do so.

  19. Morning all. Seeing the comments above, no doubt the_drewski and Douglas and Milko are in faculties that have not given in to the trends identified in Four Corners. Good for them. However it would be very unwise for them to generalise from that and assume most (G8) universities and/or faculties are similar. They are not.

    The faculties running courses where professional bodies oversee standards and accredit institutions are much better. That includes medicine, law, engineering, dentistry and vet science degrees at all universities. Many (not all) universities also fund physical science enough to be rigorous. But that still leaves all the rest – arts, other sciences, nursing, IT, business/economics/accounting, and many more – as very vulnerable to the forces Four Corners identified.

    In fact, Four Corners did not go into one additional area of corruption in universities. That is academic fraud and falsified research, designed to win the competition for shrinking research funds. Federal funding per student is not enough to keep most courses afloat. There are two ways to get more money – teaching foreign students and research grants. You need one or the other or both. See sites like Sourcewatch to see just how much academic fraud is occurring to secure the latter.

  20. all this uni talk is very productive

    not sure of $3000 a subject figure from previously but drift of argument is sound

    there are also tooooo many underemployed underproductive underskilled academic – about 50% one might guess in many quarters – why shouldn’t one describe their admanent cabal like grip on conditions (in name of tenure or something) as corrupt? there are also the hardworking souls – its hard how to know to separate …

    yes its time for genuine competition in the sector – i dont trust abbott at all but somehow private institutes and colleges need to give the big fat monopolistic institutions a run – i mean how much good is given at end of day for general public and adult education?

    on other hand the same big institutions are under financial pressure – the problem is they have no idea how to effectively economise – they employ casuals and protect the basket weavers in their midst

    sorry for any expression – i am elsewhere in world and it is very late

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This morning I arose from bed as a septuagenarian. And I don’t feel a day over 80!.

    Looks like the Crown Casino is getting legal exemption a religious organisation would be proud of.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/star-casino-may-be-the-most-violent-venue-but-exempt-from-restrictions-20150420-1morb6.html
    It’s OK Google. Obviously you can do anything you like in Australia!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/google-to-rank-mobilefriendly-sites-higher-20150420-1mowqg.html
    Reith calls for a kamikaze double dissolution.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/double-dissolution-may-be-a-solution-to-policy-deadlock-20150420-1morr9.html
    Sam Dastyari with an op-ed where he says big banks owe the little people more than cash. Today’s Senate inquiry should be well worth watching.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-the-big-banks-need-to-compensate-the-little-people-20150420-1moreh.html
    Australians just don’t trust life insurance companies. Here’s why.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/insurance-industry-insures-a-lack-of-trust-20150420-1moril.html
    “View from the Street” hops into The Fixer for his $4m support of the climate change denier.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-lets-fund-climate-change-denia-sorry-consensus-20150420-1mp6i1.html
    Hockey’s “Google Tax” is just a slogan say certain experts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/joe-hockeys-google-tax-just-a-political-slogan-experts-say-20150420-1mp0sx.html
    The TV networks are getting cold feet over ANZAC coverage.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/ww1/stars-pulled-as-networks-get-cold-feet-on-gallipoli-20150420-1mos5g.html
    Surely Dutton must be the biggest plonker of a Minister we’ve ever had.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/20/cambodia-says-no-refugee-arrivals-imminent-contradicting-peter-dutton
    Michelle Grattan says Annastacia may well save Bishop’s bacon at UNESCO regarding the Great Barrier Reef.
    https://theconversation.com/julie-bishops-barrier-reef-mission-40498

  22. On unis, standards and cheating, we seem to be once again in the realms of ‘there once was a Golden Age’ when these things didn’t happen.

    I tutored a student in Art History when I was at Uni, over thirty years ago. I helped him write an essay (which I was uneasy about). He then came back and basically asked me to completely write the next one. I refused, but sat down and did a basic plan for him. He came back later and said that the University had rejected the finished piece, so could I please write it for him, or he wouldn’t pay me.

    I didn’t, so he got someone else to do it.

    At this stage, btw, the essay was something like six months overdue. His markers must have had some idea that he wasn’t genuine (submitting two essays on the same subject written in different ways would have been a clue), but I don’t think he was pulled on it.

    I also knew a girl at Uni who was, er, ‘popular’. In her third year, one of the supervisors went to remove her from the exam because she had overdue library books – and found a young gentleman sitting where she should have been.

    They went over all her past exams, and not a single one was written in the same handwriting.

    Cheating isn’t a new phenomena, but it really isn’t difficult to pick up. If you don’t understand the subject well enough to do your own work, you don’t understand the subject well enough to know what should be changed in the work you’re submitting, so even a slight change in the wording of a question makes your piece irrelevant, or you make silly mistakes like the high school students I talked about before.

    Cheats who copy from the internet are obvious because of this – they leave in citations which take you back to the wikipedia article, for example.

    As for student standards slipping because there are more students, given that previously students were drawn from a small demographic based on wealth, are we assuming that having more students from poorer backgrounds is dragging the standard down?

    More students does not necessarily mean more students who are not academically able. It can mean more students who could, at any time in the last century, performed well at University but would not have had the opportunity to do so.

    As for foreign students, in my Uni days we hated them (sorry, we were young and callow) because they worked hard when we didn’t.

  23. BK@176

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This morning I arose from bed as a septuagenarian. And I don’t feel a day over 80!.

    Congratulations BK – I am here to tell you it is not so bad being over 70, especially when you consider the alternative!

  24. morning all

    Enjoyed reading all the commentary in response to the the four corners report on universities etc.

    BK

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!! Have a fabulous day…….

  25. Socrates

    My daughter in doing her last year of Electrical engineering. So far she has managed to pass all her units completed to date. But so many of her cohort (which include international students) have failed several units along the way.

  26. zoomster

    Yes there has always been cheating, it is the scale that is worry. Also the ease of getting someone ELSE to do assignments – These will not be caught by plagiarism software, because they are REAL assignments, just not done by the student. The internet and email now makes this easy and indeed the essay may well have been written by some clever but poor kid in China – you know the one whose parents could NOT afford to send them here.

    Now I actually have a Chinese boy LIVING with me. He is a lovely boy and quite bright, but very, very, very lazy. He is the one who submitted a year 12 essay that would have shamed a seven year old. I even offered to help but the stubborn kid insisted on handing in the rubbish. I am cross with the teacher for accepting it. This kid wants to go to uni and could cope if the subjects are entirely mathematical (he is good at maths and occasionally does some work, however I cannot think of any course that does not require some decent written material.

    Public exams marked by people who do not know the kid and do NOT make allowances for being overseas students or being nice kids is the ONLY way to go.

  27. Happy Birthday BK. And what a wonderful day it is too. I was out at Gumeracha yesterday and it was also splendid.

    A fire fighter mate sent me this link and thought you may be interested. There is a film crew who search out dangerous earth events (tornadoes etc) and make a TV series out of it. They were in town for the Sampson Flat fires…
    http://www.takepart.com/pivot/angry-planet

  28. [ Stunned Greeks React To Initial Capital Controls And The “Decree To Confiscate Reserves”, And They Are Not Happy

    Greece …. decreed that due to an “extremely urgent and unforeseen need” … it would be “obliged” to transfer – as in confiscate – “idle cash reserves” located across the country’s local governments (i.e., various cities and municipalities) to the Greek central bank.

    …Bloomberg –

    The decree to confiscate reserves held in commercial banks and transfer them to the Bank of Greece could raise as much as 2 billion euros ($2.15 billion), according to two people familiar with the decision. The money is needed to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month, the people said.

    “It is a politically and institutionally unacceptable decision,” Giorgos Patoulis, mayor of the city of Marousi and president of the Central Union of Municipalities and Communities of Greece, said in a statement on Monday.“No government to date has dared to touch the money of municipalities.”

    …the use of confiscated proceeds is unclear: the government says it is to pay pensions and wages, but the same government recently confiscated pensions to repay the IMF ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-20/stunned-greeks-react-initial-capital-controls-and-decree-confiscate-reserves-and-the

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