The BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds the Coalition retaining last week’s big gain without significantly adding to it, except to the extent of a 0.4% increase on two-party preferred and a gain in New South Wales on the seat projection. Coming after this week’s unexpectedly strong result from Ipsos, Coalition-supporting readers of this blog (I know you’re out there) might have been hoping for more. There are two reasons they don’t have it, the first being that Ipsos has had the Coalition tracking solidly higher than its rivals over its four published federal polls, and a bias adjustment is being applied to account for this. So far as BludgerTrack is presently concerned, the Ipsos poll had Labor on 52.5%, rather than the published 51%. The second factor is this week’s Essential Research result. As is so often the case, Essential’s published fortnightly rolling average recorded no change this week. However, BludgerTrack is privy to Essential’s weekly numbers, and while I ordinarily don’t give anything away about them, dedicated observers of BludgerTrack could ascertain for themselves that a stronger result for Labor was concealed by fortnightly smoothing and possibly a little rounding.
It’s a different story on the leadership ratings, where Ipsos’s numbers have caused a particularly large movement in Tony Abbott’s favour on net approval, albeit from a disastrously low base. There are also two data points now to indicate that things might be going a bit awry for Bill Shorten, who long seemed to be tracking just below parity, but is now approaching minus double figures. Abbott has accordingly made up ground on preferred prime minister, which reflects voting intention in being back to where it was before Australia Day. But so far as net approval is concerned, Abbott remains well south of his previous low point after the budget.
Windhover
[The coupling of $150M of science funding to the University legislation is contemptuous of the projects reliant on that funding. It really is a further illustration of the “if we can’t get our way we will wreck the joint” attitude. ]
Well said.
Arrnea
What is, is.
Wisdom comes from one’s natural attributes for sure, but for any given person there is a quantitative aspect (years on the earth) which step by step enhances one’s wisdom, all things being equal.
I’m sure you are familiar with the saying about the desirability but impossibility of putting old heads on young bodies.
Or that saying of regret “I wish I was 20 again, knowing what I know now”.
These are anything but vacuous yearnings.
Briefly #90
Zactly.
The roles of the President, and of the AFP pretty well subsume all other aspects of this matter.
The “eyes wide open”, and “they made there choices” and “they knew what they were getting into” memes have been on constant rotation on talkback, redneck AM radio here in NSW for weeks.
psyclaw@102
I’d teach the younger me how to study, for a start. Didn’t have a clue, tried to digest the entire book, instead of making notes and summaries. Didn’t know what a summary was, had never made one until the penny dropped at uni.
Steve777@83
There was a lot of talk about this in the 1960/70’s when US innovation, manufacturing, productivity, economical growth, wages and middle class etc were all steaming ahead.
What happened was all the gains from the mid/ late 1970’s went to the .01%.
Again the reagan years re-inforced it and wages stayed flat (or worse) but with conditions stripped away.
Remind you of the current situation abbott is trying to put in place in Australia ?
Dave
“psyclaw – My scroll wheel has been in overdrive for days in regard to the situation you raise.
Maybe give it a whirl ?”
Good advice.
I did exercise self discipline and take that course last night. But this morning it got the better of me.
But I’m done now!
I heard something very interesting on Sydney radio this morning which I found quite distressing.
Apparently the AFP are going to have an investigation into themselves re the Bali Nine after these two men are executed.
Isn’t that doing things the wrong way around. Why hasn’t it been done already before these young men are executed.
Talk about arse up!
One of the interesting thing about China was the number of people who were being employed just for the sake of it.
In some department stores I wandered through, I was the only non-salesperson in the complex. Shop after shop with two or more sales assistants sitting behind counters in empty shops. At Harbin railway station, there were about thirty shops, all selling absolutely identical items at identical prices, all fully staffed, with enough customers to keep one shop profitable.
The other conspicuous example of over employment was around security. There were at least twenty security personnel (one with something that looked like a grenade launcer) outside the main station, and at least that number inside. At one security checkpoint, there were a dozen – only two were working, the others stood round chatting.
Walking around, there were cleaners everywhere, continually sweeping pavements, railways stations etc.
A lot of the work being done seemed pointless and soul destroying.
I’m not sure that ‘make work’ programs like this, even if they create ‘full employment’ are worthwhile (and I still saw more people sleeping in the streets than I have in Melbourne).
psyclaw
[The roles of the President, and of the AFP pretty well subsume all other aspects of this matter.]
The AFP may change their methods, the Indonesian President changes every few years. What doesn’t change is that the Indonesia’s law includes the DP and long term change requires convincing Indonesians to drop it.
Is that helped by a focus on the President? I don’t know, but what I do know is that making the point all about the President automatically leaves out consideration of other possibilities in getting Indonesians to change their laws.
I don’t know about paperless offices, but I sure do notice I have to keep a paper file with all of the many and varied passwords and user names and other secret keys which providers insist not only be in a format suitable to them, but constantly need of upgrade.
This ranges from vital stuff such as banking to discount stuff for cups and coffee and cake at the local shopping centre.
Gone are the days when BSmith001 did as a password for each and every.
Can’t keep this stuff in a computer just in case the computer goes down or the information is wiped!
A certain irony there I would have thought.
Politicians urge mercy at candlelight vigil
Meanwhile, the nation’s political leaders joined Ms Bishop at the candlelight vigil in Canberra.
We want to see state-sanctioned killing brought to an end around the world and we are going to continue to campaign for that.
Father of the Parliament Philip Ruddock
“We have an immediate objective to save lives, but we need to be determined to bring about a change of attitude in the world,” said Philip Ruddock, the Father of the Parliament.
“When you think about what has happened in this particular instance, young people who had sought to go on a path which is unacceptable and unlawful, have been rehabilitated.
“This has been a remarkable journey for them. It ought to be an example to the rest of the world about what can be achieved.
“Mine and my colleagues’ prayers remain with our two Australian friends.
“But whatever happens, our determination will in no way be dented. We want to see state-sanctioned killing brought to an end around the world and we are going to continue to campaign for that.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-05/bali-nine-executions-not-this-week-indonesian-president/6281690
Sorry about last post.
That was one of the few times I agree with Philip Ruddock 100%
Don #104
Too true.
We can all look back on the dumb decisions and choices we made whilst in our formative years as youth and young adults. And most of us got away with it, even those choices that probably deserved significant punishment or consequences.
One I will never forget is travelling as a (voluntary) joy-rider passenger in a hot FJ Holden, driven by a paralytic drunk at 80+ MPH on a country road. Lady luck spared me.
But as the Yank guy on Q and A said (2 weeks back), “we are all more than the worst mistake we have made” in criticising the view that the Bali 2 can be simply construed as entities who freely made wrong choices and should pay the price.
Tricot
First law of computer users. Back up back up back up.
As for passwords. For the moment use a pasword manager and have a backup file.
In future next year or so fingerprint will be your password. Apple is bringing its IOS biometrics to the Mac and OSX.
This widespread adoption will mean more business setting up for that. Android and Windows will not be far behind. So thankfully passwords demise is in sight
[We can all look back on the dumb decisions and choices we made whilst in our formative years as youth and young adults. ]
So what’s the argument here? That we rip up all the rules (at least for people under 25) and let them do what they want to on the basis that they’re young and silly and we all made mistakes at that age?
guytaur@114
I hope you are right but I fear you are wrong.
Give Matt and Arrnea the scroll wheel twirl? I quite liked psyclaws response and glad he/she didnt twirl the wheel.
Briefly offers some nuance regarding power but I think he is slightly off the mark with reference to blood.
Personally I think the Power thing is important but its perhaps the limits of power that is causing the behaviours…… The public in Indonesia seem to think they can demand that those in ‘power’ control the drug problem, and those in power, while probably realising they are mostly powerless to control the drug problem themselves, are also aware they dont have the power to stare down the demands and certainly powerless to accede to Australias request for clemency. The frustrations of both the public and the government at their lack of control of the issue only serves to harden their reactions and resolve.
This frustration at lack of power can also explain the escalating response by the Australia government who are clearly frustrated that they have little control over the issue. Similarly the Australian public and some on PB.
Finally, there is little attention paid to why we have a drug problem and why those with the addiction seem powerless to overcome it or unable to avoid it. Personal responsibility for the drug mules must be examined in that light – what of the personal responsibility of those who consume drugs?
We can control relatively unimportant circumstances, but believe we have control over important things too. We are, dare I say, addicted to control. The realisation that we dont have full control (especially of important things like life and death) causes tears in our internal fabric of being and the reactions to that are often irrational.
[victoria
Posted Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 9:59 am | PERMALINK
BCassidy with Jon Faine on ABC just now. In a nutshell. The two latest polls saved Abbott’s hide. Cassidy reckons that the poll boost has given Abbott all the confidence in the world and Abbott is clearly on top of his game.]
Trouble is, his game is never going to be good enough to get him re-elected, after blowing so much of his credibility with the electors. Sooner or later his party will have to recognise that or go down with him.
Cadbury is apparently saying it didn’t want to build the tourist centre anyway, so nyah.
zoomster
In the case of the death penalty, yes.
Guytaur
I was recently reading up on the history of the Bali 9 and came across Ruddock’s comments at the time, 10 years ago ….. he was A-G then. He has not entered this fray as a newbie.
To give him his due, it was exactly as he expressed it earlier this week.
He was paraphrasing the words in s 15B (3) (b) of the Extradition Act and the underlying sentiments of same ie taking an anti capital punishment stance.
Tricot
[I don’t know about paperless offices, but I sure do notice I have to keep a paper file with all of the many and varied passwords and user names and other secret keys which providers insist not only be in a format suitable to them, but constantly need of upgrade.]
I use a (free) program called KeePass which stores all my passwords in a very highly encrypted form and is accessed by a single password you can make as difficult to guess as you like. It also has the option to have a “key file” which also needs to be present to open it.
As an added precaution I never store the password file anywhere on the web but in an obscure corner of my file system. I have a number of copies on different devices in case one system goes belly up.
There are other programs that do a similar thing but alsways make sure they have strong encryption before using them.
guytaur
Ah, so the death penalty shouldn’t be applied to anyone under 25, but it’s OK otherwise?
As I’ve said previously, if you’re against the death penalty, you’re against the death penalty. To qualify it by saying that these guys shouldn’t die because they’re Australians, or because they’ve been rehabilitated, or because they’re young, or because they’re crime isn’t that bad, suggests that your opposition of the death penalty is qualified in ways it shouldn’t be.
It appears that some posters here (by implication) are OK with the death penalty being applied to non-Australian middle aged people with a criminal history.
What the Cadbury grant was going to deliver…
[create a unique visitor tour offering a chocolate manufacturing experience (suspended in 2008), restoring a famous tourist attraction for Tasmania and the local economy;
help create 200 new direct jobs and 120 indirect jobs by 2017;
help secure 600 existing direct jobs and 340 existing indirect jobs;
be the first step toward producing a 100 per cent Australian-made chocolate bar;
help cause fresh milk supply to increase 83 million litres to 120 million litres, meaning an extra 6,000 cattle in the local dairy industry;
boost the existing $550 million contribution of the operation to the Tasmanian economy;
increase chocolate production to 70,000 tonnes a year, representing a 30 per cent increase and generating a $1 billion contribution to the economy; and
provide a trial to grow cocoa in the Ord River, opening up major new agricultural opportunities and growth in that area.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2015/mar/05/bali-nine-prisoner-swap-floated-as-tony-abbott-requests-call-with-joko-widodo-politics-live
zoomster
The death penalty is wrong and should not apply.
It is the ultimate human rights abuse. Age is not a factor except to explain how young people may get into siturations through ignorance or stupidity
Zoomster #115
Just a bit of empathy, understanding, balance, proportionality, fairness, and other like sentiments.
My memory is not always 100% but I do not recollect me or anyone else here or in the community at large, arguing such nonsense as that the rules should be ripped up and the crimes of youth should be just forgiven.
Life in prison, or even 10 years in prison is not an insignificant punishment.
[Daniel Hurst reports on some of the key predictions from the report:
The ageing of the population will continue. In 2054-55, one in 1,000 Australians will be aged over 100, compared with one in 10,000 people in 1975.
Life expectancy will improve. In 2054-55, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 95.1 years for men and 96.6 years for women, compared today’s figures of 91.5 years for men and 93.6 years for women.
The number of people aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 and over will continue to decline. This figure has already fallen from 7.3 in 1975 to 4.5 today and is expected to be 2.7 in 2054-55.
Australia’s total population is tipped to grow at 1.3% per year, slightly below the average growth rate of the past 40 years. Such a trend would result in the Australian population increasing from 23.9 million today to 39.7 million in 2054-55.
The participation rate for people aged over 15 years will fall from 64.6% now to 62.4% in 2054-55.
Female employment will continue to increase. The proportion of women aged 15 to 64 with a job has risen from 46% in 1974-75 to 66% now and is projected to rise to about 70% in 2054-55.
Australia’s economic growth will be slower than long-term trends. Average annual growth of real gross domestic product is projected to be 2.8% over the next 40 years, down from 3.1% over the past 40 years.
Based on assumptions in the report, the average annual Australian income could increase from $66,400 now to $117,300 in 2054-55
So why focus on the age of the prisoners at all, then? It’s irrelevant.
The death penalty is wrong. It should be opposed where ever it exists, regardless of whom it applies to.
@1petermartin: It’s out. Intergenerational Report: Implausible spending projections defy belief http://t.co/KDl6VWjICR http://t.co/puA1lSkXbN #igr #ausecon
Regarding the linking of science funding to education reform.
I don’t understand why the media aren’t highlighting and criticising this government’s constant use of blackmail as a political tactic. It demonstrates what a moral vacuum this government is.
I suppose to savvy, insider, political journalists, it’s just a tactic to be applauded as clever politics if it works and ignored if it doesn’t.
Hah, Bowen says Hockey’s intergenerational report “could win the Miles Frankilin award for fiction”
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/03/05/hockey-could-win-miles-franklin-bowen
Excellent. Has there every been a more clueless windbag in the Treasurer’s chair?
Adrian@7,
We need to take the whole human rights debate one case at a time. This is the stance taken by Amnesty International, and over time is the most successful. If the mind of only one parliamentarian is concentrated on governments causing cruel and unnecessary deaths, then this is a small but positive step to humane treatment of asylum seekers.
zoomster
The age is brought up to combat the “they should know what they are doing argument”
If it was me arguing I would not bother. I think the argument against the death penalty remains no matter if they knew what they were doing or not.
I understand the argument being used though to try and get the pro death penalty people to have some empathy. I think its futile though. I think the pro death penalty people have closed the mpathy in their view of the greater good deterrence factor
Uhlmann on the IG: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-05/government-to-use-intergenerational-report-to-reboot-messages/6281926
With Labor it was any excuse to bash them. With the Liberals it’s any excuse to forgive them. He sounds all ready to go in selling the government’s propaganda.
Darn@118
I think the fact that he is almost universally mocked by the cartoonists tells the story. He is gorn!
zoomster
Do you have one compassionate bone in your body – I assume not.
Get over yourself.
You display a complete lack of any empathy at all.
Who on here have ever said (by implication) anything like your last sentence.
Zoomster
‘As I’ve said previously, if you’re against the death penalty, you’re against the death penalty. To qualify it by saying that these guys shouldn’t die because they’re Australians, or because they’ve been rehabilitated, or because they’re young, or because they’re crime isn’t that bad, suggests that your opposition of the death penalty is qualified in ways it shouldn’t be.”
Who says one should not have a qualified opposition to the death penalty.
Of course the death penalty, if on the books, should be used in a qualified way.
Here area few examples of reasonable qualifications:
1) That it is used judicially, not by the Executive as part of domestic politics.
2) That due process has been afforded.
3) That the punishment is not excessive in the circumstances
I have to give it to both sides of the Government they are all really trying to find ways around this sad event and all credit to them.
Lenore Taylor —
[Sorry, Joe but I’m still on my chair. This intergenerational report is not very scary.
It shows our living standards, our wealth, will continue to rise over the next 40 years – faster for the next 30 and then a little more slowly. (Growth in gross national income per person is projected to be 0.8% in 2015 and then increase to 1.3% by 2025, 1.5% by 2035 and then fall off to 1.3% again in 2055.)
It shows the population is ageing, which is a big challenge, but that more women and over 65s will be in the workforce, which is a good thing. (By 2055, 70% of women are projected to be in the workforce.) There are 4.5 people aged between 15 and 64 now for every person aged over 65. By 2055 there will be 2.7. But given that by then everyone will be expected to work at least until they are 70, this may not be the most relevant comparison.]
[..
As for climate change – which could have a significant effect on Australia’s economic well-being over the next 40 years because of its effects and the costs of doing something about it – the document mentions the “direct action” policy in passing, but says this is not really its focus because “government spending on the environment is not directly linked with demographic factors”.
That’s a pretty big change from the last report – in 2010 – which said “climate change is the largest and most significant challenge to Australia’s environment. If climate change is not addressed, the consequences for the economy, water availability and Australia’s unique environment will be severe.]
Sorry, don’t have a direct link…
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2015/mar/05/bali-nine-prisoner-swap-floated-as-tony-abbott-requests-call-with-joko-widodo-politics-live
Guytaur, re fingerprint password.
What if your fingerprint gets damaged? Say through physical work like sanding, moving bricks, etc etc.
MTBW
indeed I am empathetic.
My empathy, however, extends to anyone facing the death penalty, regardless of their age or nationality.
Simon Katich
Thats when you have to go back to passwords. Of course in future scanning eyes etc could be other options when fingerprints not available
[Mr Hockey said the purpose of the report was to start a conversation with the Australian people about where the country is going to be in 2055.]
What’s the use of a conversation based on fabrication? If voters are so mature that they can decide for themselves where the country is going to be in 2055, they deserve to be given real facts, not Lib-lies.
psyclaw
my point is that the death penalty shouldn’t be on anyone’s books.
zoomster
What you post does not display any empathy at all.
lizzie
I expect the media will fall back into line with the government’s framing and press Labor on what its solutions to the (claimed) Labor created problems are. Expect little critical analysis of the substance of this government.
DisplayName@134, problem is this is an economic document , and the numbers are too big for Uhlmann , he can only count up to 102 , even then I am not so sure
MTBW
I’m not here to do pointless angsting. Wallowing in emotion about two men I’ve never met seems a pointless exercise. Focussing on the elimination of the death penalty, regardless of whom it’s being applied to, might actually achieve something.
That’s what they were doing before Abbott’s personal series of missteps that they couldn’t ignore – I’m guessing mostly because his gaffes were getting in the way of pushing the government’s message.
DN
You are depressingly correct. The general media will get the publicity and the critics such as Peter Martin will be lost in the crowd.