Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change this week on voting intention from Essential Research, but further questions suggest the Abbott government’s anti-terrorism measures may be striking a chord.

No change this week on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which has the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 40%, 41%, 9% and 2%, with Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Further questions relate to terrorism, and they offer rare good news for Tony Abbott, whose handling of the threat has 46% approval and 33% disapproval. It would also be to his advantage that fully 75% of respondents believe the threat has increased over the last few years, with only 2% opting for decreased, and that considerably more respondents think the government should be spending more on anti-terrorism measures (39%) than less (12%), with 56% favouring more restrictions versus only 28% who believe current laws strike the right balance. Less good for the government is the finding that 34% approve of the Human Rights Commission’s performance versus only 22% disapproval, although 44% allowed that they didn’t know. Another interesting finding is that 48% would support a national ban on greyhound racing, with only 26% opposed. The poll also finds that 57% take a favourable view of multiculturalism versus 29% for negative, and that 67% think racism is a problem in Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. To placate the ‘get even with the Indons’ crew, I suppose we can throw the next Indon fisherman or AS boatie who might make it here, into the slammer for 20 years.

    Better still, perhaps we can make an exception and have capital punishment for those illegals coming into our waters.

    That’ll teach ’em!

    Maybe bundle them into a flight south, have the plane escorted by a couple of RAAF fighters (if they have enough fuel to make it from Darwin to Melbourne say) and then – off with their heads.

    Only joking.

  2. Just got back from a branch meeting. Everyone was over the moon that Abbott hasn’t been rolled…and agreed that Malcolm has missed the boat.

  3. @ Question, 749

    Certainly, Saudi Arabia’s international reputation is not good – but if the kind of outrage that we’re seeing raised against Indonesia over the execution of convicted drug smugglers is at all proportional, then the only proportional response to what the Saudis are doing that I can possibly imagine is a full scale invasion.

    Note: I’m not advocating an invasion of Saudi Arabia here, just pointing out the imbalance in international reaction – might it have something to do with the strategic and economic importance of Saudi Arabia compared to Indonesia?

  4. [I have no sympathy for Chan and Sukumuran – they knew what they were getting into when they decided to smuggle drugs in Indonesia. It has been a capital offense for a long time.]
    And if it was your son?

  5. If you’re going to be angry at someone over the fact that Chan and Sukumuran are being executed for drug smuggling, be angry at the people who did the crime and the people who abetted it – not the Indonesian government.

  6. [I would feel grief at the loss, but it would still have been a circumstance he brought upon himself.]
    So you wouldn’t fight for mercy?

  7. [Gary
    And if it was your son?
    ]

    That is exactly the angle I am coming from. Or as I said earlier today…
    [Imagine if you were being killed just to make a politician look “tough”? ]

    All these wankers crapping on as if opposing the death penalty means war with Indonesia have lost the plot.

  8. Early on somebody mentioned moral high ground which reminded me that just after the Japanese surrender with the dropping of the bomb, Japanese soldiers were allowed to keep their arms and command structure in place, for a short while, in what is now Indonesia.

    It was recognised by the Allies that insufficient troops could be found – from the Allies – to ensure law and order and these same Japanese troops were used to keep the local in place until the Dutch came back.

    Perhaps it is no surprise the Indons are a bit sour about colonial powers and their intentions.

  9. Tying people to a pole and shooting them is tying them to a pole and shooting them. The Japanese did it, the British did it, hell, we probably did it sometime in our distant past. Now the Indonesians are doing it. The context is meaningless. It is an arbitary execution under whatever regime is in power at the time. The analogy with the Japanese Occupation Forces is valid.

    We may be powerless government, trade or diplomacy-wise but we still are entitled to our opinions and to air them.

  10. @ Gary, 762

    AS, Well that’s what is happening now.

    Incorrect. They’ve gone through the extent of the legal system in Indonesia already.

    Pressuring the Indonesians to grant clemency even though their legal system has already rejected it fully is simply an inappropriate intrusion on their sovereign rights as a nation.

    @ Question, 763

    All these wankers crapping on as if opposing the death penalty means war with Indonesia have lost the plot.

    That’s not what I said and you know it.

  11. This ‘if it were your son’ argument is a nonsense.

    In this case, the men aren’t AS’s son. Of course their parents are fighting for mercy, and of course they’re viewed with sympathy. But it doesn’t mean that other people (whose sons they aren’t) should be cricised for not feeling sympathy for them.

    There are a lot of people on death row in countries around the world. If we’re to apply the ‘if it were your son’ argument, we should be angsting about every single one of them.

    Unless you’re actively campaigning against the death penalty throughout the world, the ‘if it were your son’ argument is nothing but a lazy and emotive cop out.

  12. @ Puff, 766

    The context is meaningless.

    What’s that sound? Oh, right, it’s your credibility going flying out the window.

  13. [Pressuring the Indonesians to grant clemency even though their legal system has already rejected it fully is simply an inappropriate intrusion on their sovereign rights as a nation.]
    Oh, so you would give up if it was your son?

  14. I’m also a bit jack of the ‘but they’ve rehabilitated’ line.

    Either you’re against the death penalty or you’re not. If you’re against the death penalty, the character of the condemned person should be irrelevant.

  15. @ Gary, 772

    Oh, so you would give up if it was your son?

    Having exhausted all legal avenues for earning clemency, there simply wouldn’t be anything left to do. You could always hope for a last-minute clemency, but sometimes in life, there’s just nothing you can do to change what will happen.

  16. @ zoomster, 773

    I’m also a bit jack of the ‘but they’ve rehabilitated’ line.

    Either you’re against the death penalty or you’re not. If you’re against the death penalty, the character of the condemned person should be irrelevant.

    Absolutely agreed. The only people who have any business opposing these executions are people who consistently oppose the death penalty, no matter who is imposing it and no matter who it is imposed upon.

    @ Question, 774

    You are not the only one using contorted logic.

    Proportional responses are contorted logic? You learn something new every day, I guess(!)

  17. AS

    There have been suggestions that Australia would have had more success in its efforts to save these guys if they had been more outspoken about the death penalty previously.

  18. @ Edwina StJohn, 776

    Were I determining the laws of a nation, drug trafficking would not attract capital punishment – however, Indonesia’s laws are a matter for Indonesia to decide and they are well-known.

    I also have questions about the integrity of the Indonesian legal system raised by allegations that other drug traffickers managed to avoid capital punishment by offering bribes to judges – however, this is more about people not being executed that probably should have been under Indonesian laws than it is about people being executed that should not have been.

  19. [Either you’re against the death penalty or you’re not. If you’re against the death penalty, the character of the condemned person should be irrelevant.]

    I’m against it because I can imagine what it’s like.

  20. Emotions are running high understandably, but I think most of your proposed responses are a little extreme.

    Personally I think the Government should suspend AFP cooperation with Indonesia in any matter in which the death penalty is a possible punishment.

    This would continue until the Indonesian Government agreed that it would not pursue the death penalty in any case in which the AFP or other Australian agency had provided assistance.

    It would also apply to all people arrested in the those cases irrespective of nationality, Australian, Indonesian or any other.

    For me this gets to the crux of the issue at hand. It’s proportionate in that it does not suspend cooperation when dealing with non-capital crimes while making it clear our position in relation to capital punishment.

    On our side of the water, I would hold a fall enquiry into the AFP regarding these matters. I would particularly focus on cases where the AFP have allowed people to travel to other jurisdictions when they had intelligence that a crime was being committed. In some cases it appears that this intelligence was passes onto the receiving jurisdiction.

    This is unacceptable. If a crime is committed in Australia it should be dealt with in Australia.

    That’s my 2 cents worth. What do you think?

  21. @ zoomster, 778

    A reasonable argument, though I’m not inclined to agree – I think the political calculus for Jokowi would have made any arguments along this line by Australia fall on deaf ears, regardless of our prior position on the application of the death penalty there.

  22. [Having exhausted all legal avenues for earning clemency, there simply wouldn’t be anything left to do. You could always hope for a last-minute clemency, but sometimes in life, there’s just nothing you can do to change what will happen.]
    Fair enough.

  23. @ Barney in Saigon, 781

    I would agree with suspending AFP co-operation in matters of capital crimes, at least temporarily.

    However, I must disagree with you on this point:

    This is unacceptable. If a crime is committed in Australia it should be dealt with in Australia.

    The crime was being committed in Indonesia – possession of drugs in this quantity with the intent to traffic is the operative offence here.

  24. [Proportional responses are contorted logic? You learn something new every day, I guess(!)]

    I have not suggested a response… it hasn’t happened yet.

  25. @ ESJ, 785

    Assuming you’re referring to my 779, your response is a cop-out because I didn’t answer the question in the way you wanted me to.

    My position is more nuanced than can be expressed in a simple “yes” or “no” answer to your question.

  26. ESJ @727:

    [Self esteem seems to be an issue for you matt, I hope it doesn’t translate in your teaching.]

    Tsk, tsk…there you go, projecting again.

    Diogenes @728:

    [I think a $77,000 fine instead of a $400 fine is excessive but I think you could fine someone up to ten times the amount ie $4000 if they are very rich.

    The main reason behind a fine is as a deterrent and it’s not much of a deterrent if you don’t notice the fine.]

    Capping a fine would rather negate the point of making it pinch the pocket, would it not?

    After all, I doubt that Gina Rinehart would notice a $4000 fine for traffic violations.

    Darren Laver @730:

    [Oh dear Matt. You are having an absolute shocker today!]

    …He says, defending the person who is advocating international brinkmanship in an effort to bully Indonesia into abrogating its sovereignty.

    Gary @755:

    [And if it was your son?]

    I’d be beside myself with grief, to be sure. And I’d direct that at the AFP, who violated their own policies in co-operating with another jurisdiction which was considering applying the death penalty to Australian citizens.

    Not at Indonesia, which is simply enforcing its own laws as written.

    Question @763:

    [All these wankers crapping on as if opposing the death penalty means war with Indonesia have lost the plot.]

    Hey, nice strawman. And combined with just that right touch of personal abuse, too!

  27. @ Matt, 789

    I’d be beside myself with grief, to be sure. And I’d direct that at the AFP, who violated their own policies in co-operating with another jurisdiction which was considering applying the death penalty to Australian citizens.

    Not at Indonesia, which is simply enforcing its own laws as written.

    +1

  28. [I have not suggested a response… it hasn’t happened yet.]

    However, I have seen a lot of abstract crap about Saudi Arabia, the Dutch, and a satirical list of nasty things I’m supposed to support. There is a lot more rubbish than that, but I can’t be bothered collating it all.

  29. @ Question, 791

    However, I have seen a lot of abstract crap about Saudi Arabia

    Comparing a country that executes people for something proscribed as a capital offense in their criminal code to another country that executes people for something proscribed as a capital offense in their criminal code is “abstract crap”?

    Wow.

  30. Zoomster @778:

    Perhaps that is the case. But I can tell you this: The Abbott Government did the two condemned no favours by getting in Widodo’s face about the matter.

    By verbally shirtfronting Indonesia on the topic, they put Widodo’s back to a wall – as a matter of practical politics, he couldn’t give clemency now even if he wanted to thanks to their clumsy attempts to pressure Jakarta. He’d lose so much face that you’d be able to see the back of his head from in front!

    Quiet, back-corridor diplomacy (as well as an “entirely unrelated” Viceregal visit to exchange courtesies with a new President and enhance his domestic standing by making it clear he’s taken seriously internationally) may have achieved something. But that’s hardly the Abbott Government’s style, is it?

  31. AS,

    Sarcasm too! Wow! How unsurprisment! 😀

    Do you support the death penalty? Your logical contortions make it very unclear.

  32. @ Question, 794

    That’s because I don’t have a settled opinion on that question in general, but my post at 779 should have made it fairly clear to you that I don’t support the death penalty for drug trafficking.

    However, that does not overrule my support for the sovereign right of a foreign nation to decide otherwise within their own jurisdiction.

  33. I have campaigned consistently for the abolition of the Death Penalty all my adult life. I used to write snail mail Amnesty International letters when I was 21 years old. Nothing in all that time has changed my view, nor my view of those who use or support the DP.

    As I said, I opposed the DP for the Bali Bombers.

    And as far as Indonesia is concerned, this is why I am extra angry about this action.

    http://www.portnews.com.au/story/2922409/bali-9-mother-says-nothing-can-be-done/?cs=257

    [She remains vehemently critical of the corruption that allows the drug trade to openly thrive on the streets of Bali.

    “They say they want to clean up Bali. I don’t think they do – there’s too much money in it for them,” Ms Davis said.

    “If you take drugs into Bali you get sentenced to 20 years. Try and take the rubbish out and you end up executed.

    “When Matthew was arrested they told us that if we had $1.2 million they would let him go. We didn’t have that sort of money. We were just ordinary people.”

    Matthew Norman has been sentenced to a life in prison for his involvement in the attempt to export heroin out of Bali in 2005.
    ]

  34. @ Puff, 796

    I can respect that, even though I don’t agree with you. Consistency is key.

    I also agree with you on the point of corruption, but it doesn’t change the fact that Chan and Sukumuran are guilty of drug trafficking, it just means that some people who would otherwise have been convicted were not. If that corruption didn’t exist, Chan and Sukumuran would be in exactly the same position as they are now.

  35. This case reminds me of Barlow & Chambers who were hanged in 1986, I was only at primary school at the time but for those who were older, what if anything was the impact of their execution on the relationship between Australia and Malaysia?

  36. AS
    So you support the right of Papua New Guinea to allow some people to burn alive women thought to be witches, without penalty?

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