Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll strays from the pack with an unexpectedly moderate lead for Labor, although Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remain diabolical.

James J relates in comments that Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is a good deal better for the Coalition then its recent polling form, with the Labor lead down from 57-43 a fortnight ago to 53-47. The major parties are tied at 38% of the primary vote with the Greens on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have not improved, with approval on 25% and disapproval on 68%. The surprise is the poor ratings for Bill Shorten who is on at 35% approval and 49% disapproval, although he maintains a 43-35 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE (Morgan and Essential): Roy Morgan and Essential likewise record movement back to the Coalition, although not nearly as much. The Roy Morgan result, which combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling from a sample of 2639, has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40.5%, the Coalition up two to 37.5%, the Greens down two to 10% and Palmer United steady on 2%. Labor’s two-party lead is down from 57.5-42.5 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 57-43 to 55-45 on previous election preferences.

After failing to join in with the other pollsters in registering a post-Australia Day Coalition collapse, Essential Research now finds itself in alignment with Newspoll as Labor’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 53-37, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up one), 41% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). The result combines two weeks of polling from a sample of 1836.

This week’s tranche of the Essential survey also inquires about economic management and foreign relations, recording substantial change in sentiment on both counts since the questions were last asked in October. The government’s “good” rating on economic management is down five to 34%, while “poor” is up two to 30%. Respondents are found to have become less concerned about various cost of living measures, particularly and understandably in relation to petrol, but more concerned about debt and deficit.

The Abbott government is being marked down even further on trust in handling international relations, the positive rating down seven to 33% and negative up nine to 62%. For Indonesia specifically, the government’s “good” rating is down eight to 24% with negative up three to 42%. Relations with other countries appear to have become less important to respondents generally, the “very important” ratings for Indonesia, the United States and Britain down by about 10%. However, the results for China and Japan are down a good deal less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. don@58


    I am reminded of the Soviet official, who, when asked whether Perth was in danger from Russian missiles because of Pine Gap and so on said:

    ‘We would like you to think that.’

    Russians spelling out what they think below as well –

    [ As Russia celebrates ‘Defender Of The Fatherland’ Day, they had an interesting message on the side of the parade’s missiles: “To be personally delivered to Obama.” ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/obama-russia-love-and-20-megatons

  2. BK

    The revelations regarding the goings on at Knox Grammar are truly shocking.

    How can such a supposidly prestigous establishment be allowed to get away with this unconsciousble conduct for so long is breathtaking!

    Those grubs that were allowed to continue in their respective roles defies belief.

    If I was a parent at this school I would be calling for a full independent inquiry, the sacking of the board and senior management.

    The Government provides significant funds to ‘subsidise’ these businesses. Time for a rethink as we (the Australian public) are not getting an appropriate ROI.

  3. [Victoria

    According to the right wing they are 780,000 bludgers who spend their days in bed, taking drugs, playing the pokies and spending all that money on trips to the Riviera to sip French campers
    ]
    So there must be a lot of lurkers here…

    Saw front page of today’s Daily Telegraph.
    Big banner headline
    Back in the Game
    With a picture of Abbott.
    A smaller “Shorten – Massive Poll Plunge”

  4. RUA re the letter

    Julie B was being very cagey on AM this morning about these matters.

    This is going to blow up in the most spectacular way.

  7. “@BernardKeane: George Brandis – so gutless he won’t even do his own dirty work – sent a public servant to induce Gillian Triggs to resign.”

  8. A decent Prime Minister would sack Brandis, unless he was doing Tony’s dirty work.

    But Abbott is doing a great job of sacking himself. 🙂

  10. I suspect the unexpectedly good result is due to a bit of MOE and the last poll being a temporary high water mark in the lead up to the spill.

    Still, good for the ALP to have what appears to be Abbott making a comeback and therefore less likely to be removed prior to the budget.

    I think it’s too much for the ALP to hope for that Abbott will be carried all the way to the next election. But a second budget from this phenomenally incompetent PM will go a long way to trashing the Liberal’s (undeserved) reputation as competent managers

  11. Trigg asked if she thought she was being offered an inducement to resign.

    She said she preferred not to use that word. Decoded that means yes.

    Brandis is a very ordinary bloke.

  13. “@safimichael: Lawyer for #terror suspect Omarjan Azari arguing “intrusion” of PM Abbott has “incurably prejudiced” case”

    “@safimichael: Abbott beheading remarks “unprecedented in the history of this country””

  14. “@jmodoh: .@SenatorWong to Senator Macdonald: if you’re not able to speak to people politely, chair, perhaps we should suspend until you can calm down”

  16. [MacDonald notes in passing he has not bothered reading the report which is the subject of all the fuss.]

    For flips sake, he is only chairing a committee looking into a report he is too lazy to read, sack him as well.

    (Thanks Tom)

  19. guytaur

    [Estimates confirming Brandis attempt to get Triggs to resign]

    Who do these people bloody well think they are?

    The demeanor and manner of Brandis leaves a lot to think about.

  22. guytaur

    [“@jmodoh: .@SenatorWong to Senator Macdonald: if you’re not able to speak to people politely, chair, perhaps we should suspend until you can calm down”]

    I just love Penny Wong she knows how to hit a nail on the head.

  24. Triggs should tell them to get knotted – pathetic little tyrants.

    Prof Triggs – its only a year before thew Australian people put your tormentors to the sword, just as Queensland did to Newman. Hang on in there.

  25. [A decent Prime Minister would sack Brandis, unless he was doing Tony’s dirty work.
    But Abbott is doing a great job of sacking himself.]

    Abbott needs more than ever the Brandises of this government, next to whom even he can look semi-competent.

  27. No paywall
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/tony-abbott-liberal-party-urged-to-act-on-peta-credlin/story-fn59nqld-1227236089280
    [Tony Abbott, Liberal Party, urged to act on Peta Credlin
    The Australian
    February 24, 2015 8:59AM
    David Crowe Political Correspondent Canberra

    CONCERNS over Tony Abbott’s office have sparked a furious row at the top of the Liberal Party, with senior figures warning of the “highly damaging” influence of his chief of staff, Peta Credlin, and urging rapid action to fix the problem.

    The party’s honorary treasurer, Philip Higginson, has issued an extraordinary warning to the Prime Minister and more than 20 other members of the party’s federal executive to end the “conflict of interest” caused by Ms Credlin’s marriage to the Liberal Party federal director, Brian Loughnane.

    Mr Higginson told the party’s most senior leaders on Sunday night that he might step down because of his frustrations. He called on them to show the “necessary courage” to end an arrangement that was threatening the government.

    ………….

    The Australian has spoken to senior Liberals who echoed the fears set out in Mr Higginson’s letter to the federal council, backing the case for urgent changes to the party and the Prime Minister’s office to save the government in the wake of the leadership spill two weeks ago.

    Mr Higginson’s letter, obtained by The Australian yesterday, has triggered fears that the party will lose its top fundraiser just 18 months out from the next election because of the sense of dysfunction at the top of the government.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-23/army-chief-david-morrison-to-retire-in-may/6230100
    [Army chief Lieutenant General David Morrison to retire in May after 36 years of service
    Updated about an hour ago]

  28. Yes, this poll is a combo of MOE noise – and possibly some real shift back as LNP voters realise Abbott can’t hang on to the leadership.

  30. The Shorten netsats make me think (as others have suggested) that this is just sampling error – a statistically poor sample for the ALP.

  33. I’m looking for words to describe Penny Wong – This come to mind, in no particular order:
    dignified
    polished
    controlled
    intelligent
    forensic
    polite
    clever [not meant as a pejorative]
    competent
    honest

    Discussion?

  34. Fredex @ 132

    I would also add

    Witty
    Engaging
    Committed

    How many of these and your adjectives can be applied to the same esteemed MPs in Senate Estimates today?

    Vale John Faulkner. Penny is excellent but the withering look and cutting remarks to imbelcelic behaviour in Senate Estimates from Sen Faulker was always a delight to watch. Not to mention Dougie Cameron as well.

  38. A boost in opinion polls???

    [As Prime Minister, Abbott’s decisiveness rating has dropped from 69 per cent in opposition to 57 per cent; vision is down 11 points to 61 per cent; arrogance is up from 63 per cent to 77 per cent; caring for people is down from 71 per cent to 55 per cent; likable down 15 points to 40 per cent; and being in touch with voters has dropped a massive 28 points to just 33 per cent.]

  40. I suppose when you look at federal election results 53% TPP is a landslide, but you expect opinions polls to be more fluid and “reactive” outside election campaigns.

    I suppose the previous poll was the “reactive” one, and Shorten may be suffering from Bowen’s efforts, and people might like the drop in interest rates. The idea that the electorate has already discarded Abbott from their thinking is an interesting explanation as well.

    But it is very hard to take this poll seriously given the daily flow of government gaffs and stumbles in the past fortnight. And that most of the commentariate, including people like Nicki Savva, are talking about “when” not “if” Abbott goes.

    This poll is probably a dud, but it will be very amusing if Abbott recovers enough to hold off another spill. Contrary to the commentariate, Turnbull handled the spill badly IMO. He should have declared, but was way too cute and his failure to seize the opportunity looked more lame than leader.

    I suppose another chance is more likely than not, but I will be highly amused if Turnbull stuffs it.

  41. I agree with all of the above additions and they prompted a stray thought.
    Wouldn’t it be good if she transferred to the Reps and then …..?
    Not practical or on the cards I s’pose but gee it would be a coup for Australia.

  43. Question @139:

    Besides the possibilities of this Newspoll (or the previous one!) being a rogue, there is also – as mentioned – the high likelihood that the electorate is simply factoring Tones out, considering him a dead PM walking.

    I consider that the likeliest, and personally quite like it – it means that even changing leaders won’t save the Libs at the next election.

  44. I agree if there is a trend it is sitting at 55-45 or dog forbid Essential.
    It is worth it for what it is doing to the conservative’s heads.
    And to keep the ALP on their toes.

    What will do my head in is if Essential moves in the direction of the coalition.

  45. [John Reidy

    Saw front page of today’s Daily Telegraph.
    Big banner headline
    Back in the Game
    With a picture of Abbott.
    A smaller “Shorten – Massive Poll Plunge”]

    This will please Baird and many NSW Liberal MPs no end. An emboldened Abbott, urged on by the DT, will seek to insert himself into the NSW election campaign.

    On this topic, what became of Abbott’s pledge that he would visit the electorates of Federal Liberals in NSW?

    Maybe we can look forward to many photos of Abbott standing alongside MPs who would rather be elsewhere.

  47. If this is true Matt @142, which. I think it might be, head there ever been a precedent for this ?
    Where a leader is so far ‘gone’ that a failed spill in the absence of any challenger, results In a swing back.

  49. ABC reports this lunchtime that abuse was rife at the Knox College according to evidence at the RC

    Will be hard to bounce back from this for the college’s reputation

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