Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll strays from the pack with an unexpectedly moderate lead for Labor, although Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remain diabolical.

James J relates in comments that Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is a good deal better for the Coalition then its recent polling form, with the Labor lead down from 57-43 a fortnight ago to 53-47. The major parties are tied at 38% of the primary vote with the Greens on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have not improved, with approval on 25% and disapproval on 68%. The surprise is the poor ratings for Bill Shorten who is on at 35% approval and 49% disapproval, although he maintains a 43-35 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE (Morgan and Essential): Roy Morgan and Essential likewise record movement back to the Coalition, although not nearly as much. The Roy Morgan result, which combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling from a sample of 2639, has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40.5%, the Coalition up two to 37.5%, the Greens down two to 10% and Palmer United steady on 2%. Labor’s two-party lead is down from 57.5-42.5 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 57-43 to 55-45 on previous election preferences.

After failing to join in with the other pollsters in registering a post-Australia Day Coalition collapse, Essential Research now finds itself in alignment with Newspoll as Labor’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 53-37, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up one), 41% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). The result combines two weeks of polling from a sample of 1836.

This week’s tranche of the Essential survey also inquires about economic management and foreign relations, recording substantial change in sentiment on both counts since the questions were last asked in October. The government’s “good” rating on economic management is down five to 34%, while “poor” is up two to 30%. Respondents are found to have become less concerned about various cost of living measures, particularly and understandably in relation to petrol, but more concerned about debt and deficit.

The Abbott government is being marked down even further on trust in handling international relations, the positive rating down seven to 33% and negative up nine to 62%. For Indonesia specifically, the government’s “good” rating is down eight to 24% with negative up three to 42%. Relations with other countries appear to have become less important to respondents generally, the “very important” ratings for Indonesia, the United States and Britain down by about 10%. However, the results for China and Japan are down a good deal less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Prediction: Abbott is safe and will lead the Libs to victory at the next election.

    There is just too much inertia in Oz. The Libs lack the guts to ditch Abbott even though it would be in their best interests. The media will fall in line. There’ll be budget goodies and big scare campaign against terrorism. Labor’s in government in three states (two of them big ones). Ergo, Abbott can’t lose.

  2. Must say i am finding it difficult to reconcile the improvement for the coalition. This past few weeks has been a train wreck for the lot of them

  3. Thanks BK. Surely under the Essendon Principle the Totans players caught with a drug dealer will get off? I thought it was a basic rule in Australian drug enforcement that all high profile professional footballers were exempt from punishment?

  4. Zoomster @38, that is my reading as well.
    Some of the non rusted on Lib voters have returned on the expectation that Abbott is going to be dumped.

  5. [‘…Abbott wants to change the laws to introduce “stronger prohibitions on vilifying, intimidating or inciting hatred”.’]
    Does Abbott want Alan Jones prosecuted too, or the other right wing shock jocks?

  6. Toorak Toff@50

    Prediction: Abbott is safe and will lead the Libs to victory at the next election.

    There is just too much inertia in Oz. The Libs lack the guts to ditch Abbott even though it would be in their best interests. The media will fall in line. There’ll be budget goodies and big scare campaign against terrorism. Labor’s in government in three states (two of them big ones). Ergo, Abbott can’t lose.

    I am reminded of the Soviet official, who, when asked whether Perth was in danger from Russian missiles because of Pine Gap and so on said:

    ‘We would like you to think that.’

    In this case, I hope you are right for the sake of Tony’s demise at the ballot box, but I hope you are wrong for the sake of Australia.

    On balance, I think he will be gone by at least just after the next budget, and possibly before.

  7. One more comment – the rate of leaks in the liberal party is funny, given what they said during the Rudd Gillard wars. Have a good day all.

  8. The decline iun Shorten ratings may be because the public somehow think Turnbull is or is about to be PM.

    Labor ratings went UP just before the first Rudd spill because the public thought he was coming back, then crashed heavily, as in the Qld election.

  9. Steve777

    Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Has to be a rogue given recent events. How could the Liberals have picked up 4% 2PP in the last 2 weeks?

    Shorten David Hick’s comments struck a cord with people and made him look apologetic and sympathetic

  10. Given I’m a political tragic and I’m totally unaware of anything Shorten has said about Hicks, that doesn’t seem a likely explanation.

  11. As I suspected, Abbott got the Oath of Allegiance wrong in Parliament yesterday —

    He said

    [This is about Australian values. We should never forget the pledge that all of us are encouraged to make at citizenship ceremonies:

    I pledge myself to Australia and its people whose democratic beliefs I share, whose rights and liberties I share, as laws I will uphold and obey. ]

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Dataset%3Ahansardr,hansards,hansardr80,hansards80%20((ResponderId_Phrase%3AEZ5))%20Date%3A23%2F02%2F2015;rec=1;resCount=Default

    The oath is:

    [As an Australian citizen
    I affirm my loyalty to Australia and its people,
    whose democratic beliefs I share,
    whose rights and liberties I respect,
    and whose laws I uphold and obey.]

    http://www.citizenship.gov.au/ceremonies/affirmation/

  12. I would like Labor to get to the bottom of the submarine issue and also press Abbott and co on the jobs situation, in particular what 4corners reported on last night’s program

    [In Australia, there are about 780,000 unemployed people competing for only 150,000 job vacancies #unemployment on #4corners]

  13. I do remain rather unimpressed by Bill Shorten; he speaks to the electorate like a high school debater.

    According to Bushfire Bill this is precisely what the electorate wants.

  14. [Given I’m a political tragic and I’m totally unaware of anything Shorten has said about Hicks, that doesn’t seem a likely explanation.]
    It was reported widely what Shorten had to say about Hicks.

    An example: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/david-hicks-terror-conviction-us-court-reverses-guantanamo-decision/story-e6frg6nf-1227224853646
    [Bill Shorten earlier said an “injustice” had been done to Mr Hicks and the government should re-examine the Howard government’s actions.

    “There is no doubt on one hand David Hicks probably was foolish to get caught up in that Afghanistan conflict but clearly there has been an injustice done to him. The American courts have finally established that,” the Opposition Leader said.

    “I think there is an issue here for the Australian government … Did they really do all they could have to ensure an injustice didn’t occur and to bring David Hicks back to Australia?]

    As I posted the other day, the ALP seem keen to call for an inquiry when in opposition but not so keen when in government.

    The Greens have called for and moved motions for such an inquiry.

    2012: http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/hiding-hicks-major-parties-quash-inquiry-motion
    [The Federal Government and Opposition have continued to reject calls for an independent inquiry into the detention of David Hicks in Guantanamo Bay by voting down a motion from Australian Greens spokesperson for Legal Affairs Senator Penny Wright.

    Senator Wright’s motion called on the Government to set up an independent inquiry into David Hicks’ detention, treatment and trial in US custody and the role of the Australian Government.]

  15. Victoria

    According to the right wing they are 780,000 bludgers who spend their days in bed, taking drugs, playing the pokies and spending all that money on trips to the Riviera to sip French campers

  16. Some solid gold from Abbott’s time with Alan Jones this morning

    [
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 1 hr 1 hour ago
    Alan Jones says people want to see a bit of “Mr Whippy” in Tony Abbott.
    ]

    [
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 1 hr 1 hour ago
    Whippy = ring your bell and tell everyone about what you’re selling.
    ]

    [
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 1 hr 1 hour ago
    Earlier Alan Jones agreed with a listener who suggested @Wyatt_MP go back to school and finish Year 12 instead of trying to bring down PM.
    ]

    https://twitter.com/latikambourke

  17. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/23/civil-societys-expectations-have-always-been-low-in-the-matter-of-david-hicks
    [The David Hicks case has always been too much about politics, when it should have been about the law. More precisely, the rule of law, and Australia standing up for the rule of law – especially where it concerned one of its citizens.

    The decision of the US court of military commission review confirmed what we’ve long known, but successive Australian governments have conveniently ignored – the treatment and prosecution of Hicks was always outside of the law.

    Without accountability, there is nothing to stop something like this from happening again. But Bill Shorten, the opposition leader, has copped heavy criticism for daring to suggest that:

    ” There is no doubt that on the one hand David Hicks was probably, was foolish to get caught up in that Afghanistan conflict … We can’t control what American military courts do, but I do think that the Australian government needs to examine, did they really do all they could of to ensure injustice didn’t occur and bring David Hicks back to Australia?”

    Of course, there are questions for both major parties to answer. It was the Rudd government that placed Hicks under a control order for a year when he was released from prison in Australia, effectively endorsing his military commission plea deal.]

  18. Abbott still sticking by Credlin and Loughnane.

    [
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 1 hr 1 hour ago
    PM Tony Abbott says Brian Loughnane has been Lib director for 12 years and Credlin a CoS for 10 years. There’s no problem.
    ]

    [
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 1 hr 1 hour ago
    PM Tony Abbott says if there was a problem with @LoughnaneB being Fed Director and Peta Credlin being CoS then its been so for 10yrs.
    ]

    https://twitter.com/latikambourke

  19. Unemployment in Australia is at its highest in 12 years. The Government’s solution is an innovative billion-dollar scheme called Jobs Services Australia. But the initiative is failing.

    Now, a Four Corners investigation shows how the scheme is being manipulated and, at times, systematically exploited. Reporter Linton Besser reveals the corruption at the heart of the program aimed at helping some of this country’s most vulnerable people.

    He travels to suburbs where unemployment is a way of life. He meets Kym, struggling to find work and pull her daughter out of a cycle of poverty.

    There to help are private and not-for-profit job agencies, paid by the Government to help find work for Kym and others like her. These agencies have blossomed thanks to the privatisation of the Commonwealth Employment Service in 1998, and are thriving on contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

    Unemployment is now big business in Australia. Each year the Government spends about $1.3 billion on its welfare to work scheme.

    But what happens when there are simply not enough jobs to go around?

  20. Erasmus@39

    Thanks for your support, and the suggestion if tweeting this. About to go to sleep now – in Germany for work before flying back to Oz in 36 hours, and so will tweet in the am.

  21. [ Greece Misses 1st Commitment: Delays Reform List Delivery Until Tuesday

    Well that didn’t take long…

    *GREECE TO SUBMIT LIST OF REFORM COMMITMENTS TO EU TOMORROW: OFFICIAL

    So we are less than 3 days into the ‘new deal’ and Greece has missed its first deadline.

    …“The Greek government’s capacity to agree and deliver on the conditionality of the current program remains the key source of uncertainty under the current agreement.

    Most immediately, the government will have to navigate the fallout from today’s agreement, as well as the ‘reform list’ that will need to be submitted on Monday. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/greece-misses-1st-commitment-delays-reform-list-delivery-until-tuesday

  22. This poll looks to me to be mostly statistical noise, perhaps with a slight move back to the government, a natural correction after the horror polls of earlier this month. But in and of itself, this poll (like all polls) doesn’t mean anything much.

    I’m slightly surprised to see so many PBers go all Shanahan and try to read the tea-leaves of a particular poll, though notably one which does not chime with the political leanings of most poster. Remember kids, “the trend is your friend”, and on that basis I see no evidence of a general swing back to the Coalition. As the esteemed Mr Bonham notes in comment #1, it’s probably around 55-45 at the moment – a landslide in anyone’s terms.

    However, that’s not to say that next year’s election will pan out that way. Labor has an enormous hill to climb to win government – 20 seats is a lot to win in one go, and it’s hard to believe that the Libs will continue being so hopelessly inept for another 18 months.

  23. Hugo

    [it’s hard to believe that the Libs will continue being so hopelessly inept for another 18 months.]

    Well, we never thought they would be so inept to start with, so anything’s possible. I think we’ve all run out of ways to describe them.

    Anyone else catch Dutton accusing Muslim leaders of wtte speaking out of both sides of their mouths? That’ll go down well.

  24. Abbott told Ch 9 this morning that the leaked letter from the Party’s treasurer about the Loughnane -Credlin conflict of interest and party vitriol arising from it was a “storm in a teacup”.

    What elements of his character create such a silly response?

    1. Delusion, and a distorted view of reality ….. 5%

    2. Fool ….. 5%

    3. Denial, can’t conceive of himself going down the gurgler ….. 5%

    4. Mendacity (despite the letter being “in writing”) …. 85%

    IMHO

  25. [ This poll looks to me to be mostly statistical noise, perhaps with a slight move back to the government ]

    Yep. Just roll with the punches.

    Nothing much has changed with the situation the tories are in.

    I have great confidence that abbott will find more ‘issues’ to make a goose of himself.

  26. I wonder if there will be any practical response to the 4C report on unemployment “supporters”. As one of the “whistle blowers” said, “The money would be better spent in giving them driving lessons than in service-providers’ profit-making courses that lead nowhere”.

  27. Zoomster @ 53

    [‘…Abbott wants to change the laws to introduce “stronger prohibitions on vilifying, intimidating or inciting hatred”.’

    So he supports the retention of 18c now?]

    Brandis’ proposals for changes to 18c from last year are consistent with Abbott’s latest comments.

    Brandis wanted to change the definition of racial vilification from “conduct causing offence, insult, humiliation or intimidation” to “conduct that is reasonably likely to vilify [which means incite hatred] or to intimidate”.

    They key change Abbott & Brandis want to make is to remove the words “insult” & “cause offence”.

  28. AA

    People going on about the number of job vacancies are missing a key point, the majority of jobs that are available will never be advertised via JSa, the employers view the system as being for the unskilled, I can refer you to countless HR textbooks which describe the system has being for the unskilled.

    People like Kym were struggling to find work from their JSA provider when unemployment was 5%, in other words people referring to the job vacancies are by default making excuses for the system’s abstract failure.

    For many years I have been banging on about it here, even before the GFC, I even predicted that if the GFC was as bad as first predicted then JSA system would be totally exposed with no where to hide.

    This system has been a rort for years even when unemployment was 4%

  29. QandA

    the Prime Minister’s absence did not go unnoticed: many users pointed out that the self-appointed Minister for Women was curiously missing from one of the most poignant national conversations Australia has ever had.

  30. mexicanbeemer

    The problem goes even further. On top of the 780,000 unemployed Abbott claims there are around 400,000 people on DSP who could work

    Where are the 1.2 million jobs?

    In the mean time he advocates the “welfare bludger” rhetoric.

    Its about time that when Abbott (or Hockey etc) make the claims about the “welfare bludgers” that a journalist asked the question. Where are the jobs for them all?

    2010-11 $534million was spent investigating welfare fraud. $133 million was recovered.

  31. Regardless of QandA, it’s telling that the response to Martin Place is to focus on the Muslim connections and not the history of domestic violence.

  32. [Regardless of QandA, it’s telling that the response to Martin Place is to focus on the Muslim connections and not the history of domestic violence.]

    Well only in that it tells us it is all racist politics of the PM.

    I am thought that Shorten has been doing the right thing not getting into the limelight while Abbott self destructs but this stuff is so obviously political and so many people know it, it might have got to the point where he is harming himself by not saying what we are all thinking.

  33. AA

    The labour market is a daunting place but this isn’t helped by Tony’s carry on about so called bludgers.

    There is vertically no chance of the government moving 400k people from DSP to employment, I often argued that in a perfect world it might be possible to move about 150k people from DSP to work but that is being optimist and a firm believe that many people are unfairly overlooked due to a disability.

    On unemployment, the government is dreaming if it thinks it will ever have a zero unemployment rate particularly now that the economy has been narrowed with the lost of many mass manufacturers.

    Generally speaking about 75% of jobs are never advertised so by default the government is doing a disservice to the unemployed by sending them to its JSA, which is pretty much a non entity in the labour market.

    The current economy is flat lining thanks largely to the federal government’s complete mismanagement of the economy and the political narrative.

    Service sector and professional services are still recruiting but its becoming increasingly clear that the entry level labour market is fast disappearing.

  34. A letter gets sent to 27 people and it is leaked almost immediately despite the author asking for it to be treated confidentially.

    So who leaked it? The only leadership contender on the mailing list is Julie Bishop. I smell a Liberal Rat. 😆

  35. On Shorten and Hicks.

    Shorten could have said stronger things but he did say the essential part that Hicks suffered injustice and that was wrong etc.

    Anyone suggesting Shorten polling numbers have changed due to that is overreaching in my opinion.

    The public is divided on how to regard Hicks no matter the fact he committed no crime.

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