Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll strays from the pack with an unexpectedly moderate lead for Labor, although Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remain diabolical.

James J relates in comments that Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is a good deal better for the Coalition then its recent polling form, with the Labor lead down from 57-43 a fortnight ago to 53-47. The major parties are tied at 38% of the primary vote with the Greens on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have not improved, with approval on 25% and disapproval on 68%. The surprise is the poor ratings for Bill Shorten who is on at 35% approval and 49% disapproval, although he maintains a 43-35 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE (Morgan and Essential): Roy Morgan and Essential likewise record movement back to the Coalition, although not nearly as much. The Roy Morgan result, which combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling from a sample of 2639, has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40.5%, the Coalition up two to 37.5%, the Greens down two to 10% and Palmer United steady on 2%. Labor’s two-party lead is down from 57.5-42.5 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 57-43 to 55-45 on previous election preferences.

After failing to join in with the other pollsters in registering a post-Australia Day Coalition collapse, Essential Research now finds itself in alignment with Newspoll as Labor’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 53-37, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up one), 41% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). The result combines two weeks of polling from a sample of 1836.

This week’s tranche of the Essential survey also inquires about economic management and foreign relations, recording substantial change in sentiment on both counts since the questions were last asked in October. The government’s “good” rating on economic management is down five to 34%, while “poor” is up two to 30%. Respondents are found to have become less concerned about various cost of living measures, particularly and understandably in relation to petrol, but more concerned about debt and deficit.

The Abbott government is being marked down even further on trust in handling international relations, the positive rating down seven to 33% and negative up nine to 62%. For Indonesia specifically, the government’s “good” rating is down eight to 24% with negative up three to 42%. Relations with other countries appear to have become less important to respondents generally, the “very important” ratings for Indonesia, the United States and Britain down by about 10%. However, the results for China and Japan are down a good deal less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. “@SenatorWong: Bishop’s second answer inconsistent with her first. First she says “no such offer” was made, then “no inducement”. #qt”

  2. BK@695: It’s not clear if it is Moraitis or Brandis. It’s a very odd thing for Bishop to cite Moraitis to contradict Moraitis’ own statement to Senate Estimates. The call back hearing on Friday is going to be rather intriguing.

  3. [Isn’t Diaz the clown father of the clown the libs put up for that Western Sydney seat who could not answer a journo’s question about policy?]

    Maybe. Pretty sure he isn’t the clown father of the clown lib put up for that North Shore seat who could not answer a journo’s question about policy but got to be PM?

  4. “@AustralianLabor: Does the PM believe that the Secretary of the AG Dept gave truthful evidence to Senate Estimates yesterday? – @billshortenmp #auspol #qt”

  5. Bishop is correct: It was the promise of an inducement that was made, no actual inducement was (yet) given. Still an offence, of course 🙂

  6. “@AustralianLabor: PM says he has “Absolute faith in the veracity of the secretary.” So why say that he lied about asking Gillian Triggs to resign? #auspol”

  7. “@SummersAnne: WOW @GillianTriggs got almost 3000 new Twitter followers overnight. She MUST NOT resign but George Brandis should #IStandWithGillianTriggs”

  8. Pyne is a dick. If the best they can come up with is “there are much more important things to talk about, sod off we dont want to know” then they are screwed.

    “Look over there” is not really a sustainable response to a major breach of procedure with possibly criminal implications.

    Relevance obviously does not apply in SSO discussions??

  9. Everyone on both sides gets it that Pyne is doing a virtuoso bravura performance.
    He has a future on the boards when the sub cheat catches up with him.

  10. “@kemal_atlay: Pyne saying Labor needs to move on from Abbott’s attacks on Triggs, then brings up Craig Thompson & Peter Slipper. Jesus. #qt”

  11. [guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    “@michellegrattan: govt in disaster territory on this issue with contradictions everywhere and it’s all its own doing,”]

    Ms Grattan, past mistress of the ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’, should know what she is talking about.

  12. Bronwyn Bishop is being contemptibly partisan again. Sometimes I start feeling sorry for the poor old dear, then she does what she is is doing today, and my pity dries up like a camel’s urine in the desert.

  13. Turnbull is certainly being mischievous today:

    [Turnbull backs calls for transparency

    12:03PM DAVID CROWE
    MALCOLM Turnbull supports author of leaked letters urging greater transparency in the Liberal Party’s financial accounts.]

    (headline in Murdoch’s Oz)

  14. By Hugh de Kretser, the executive director of the Human Rights Law Centre.

    [The extraordinary revelations in Senate estimates on Tuesday reveal the depths of the government’s attacks on the Australian Human Rights Commission. In early February, Attorney-General George Brandis asked the commission’s president, Gillian Triggs, to resign. Triggs described the request, and the associated suggestion that she would be offered other work if she accepted it, as a “disgraceful proposition”. It was.

    Worse, these attacks are a nasty symptom of a much broader malaise. The federal government is actively undermining a range of vital checks and balances and stifling criticism of its actions. This is corrosive for democracy and human rights.

    The government keeps promising it complies with international human rights law in its asylum seeker policies while at the same time legislating to ensure there are no consequences under Australian law if it doesn’t.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/attacks-on-our-human-rights-commission-are-part-of-a-broader-disturbing-trend-20150225-13o6e8.html

  15. Good work by Bill Shortens ALP in not only highlighting Brandis’ attack on Triggs, but also getting the AFP involved as well.

    Shame on this dictatorial Govt.

  16. It’s not relevant who the Government has confidence in. What is relevant is that the Australian People no longer have confidence in this most inept of Governments.

  17. A point worth bearing in mind is that Mr Moraitis didn’t come to the Secretary’s position in the Attorney-General’s Department after a long career there: he moved across quite recently from a Deputy Secretary position at DFAT. While he held a number of legal positions in DFAT, in all probability the legal issues which they would have had to cover would have been somewhat narrower than those he now faces. It’s not at all clear, for example, that he would have had much past and recent involvement with criminal law.

    The contrast with some of the legendary past senior managers at Attorney-General’s – Bailey, Harders, Dennis Rose, Brazil, etc – is considerable.

  18. The AFP investigation will be interesting, since it is already in Hansard that Trigg and Moraitis concur that the event took place.

    Although “resign and you will be looked after” was not uttered, both also understand that that was the essence of what was going on.

  19. fredex

    ‘Fresh leak of highly radioactive water detected at Fukushima nuclear power plant”

    A reminder to pro Nuclear PB’s … the danger isn’t over till its over…. thousand (+) years?
    Don’t worry about legacy to your grandchildren .. their great.. great… great… grandchildren can worry

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