This week’s BludgerTrack reading goes a fair way towards illustrating what all the fuss is about in federal politics just at the moment, following the addition of new numbers from Galaxy, Ipsos and Essential Research (albeit that the latter was actually something of a dampener). Compared with last week’s reading, shifts of approaching 2% have been recorded for the two major parties on both the two-party and primary vote. Even Palmer United, which had fallen below 2% for a while there, seems to have lifted itself off the canvas as voters desert the Coalition every which way. No fewer than nine seats are recorded as switching from the Coalition column to Labor since last week’s result, including two each in Victoria and Western Australia, one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, and – interestingly enough – three in Queensland. There is presently not a single seat in Brisbane where the model rates the Coalition win probability at higher than 31%.
Ipsos and Galaxy also provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, albeit that the latter only did so for preferred prime minister. Sharp as the drop on Tony Abbott’s net approval has been, his present reading of minus 27.6% is a lot more flattering than the numbers produced by Ipsos, suggesting he has a good way further to fall next week. Because the model has two sets of numbers to work with on preferred prime minister rather than one, its reading has nearly caught up with the Ipsos and Galaxy results, putting Bill Shorten nearly as far ahead as Tony Abbott was immediately after the election.
With Turnbull we could have a conscience vote on gay marriage.
[I certainly hope not. The ALP is good at throwing money away, I hope Turnbull will be much more careful with expenditure.]
Do you have an alarm to remind you when to take your meds?
You either need to get one or get the one you have fixed.
Thankfully, one of my multiple personalities is an obsessive compulsive, so I never miss my medications.
[1499
ltep
briefly, Porter definitely came out in support of Abbott (or at least against the spill). He said that the spill should be withdrawn.]
He is a Parliamentary Sec to Abbott, so that is to be expected. In the end, he will most likely vote for a spill on the basis that this will help secure unity inside the Liberals.
Talcum is all for Malcolm.
Polls like Reach-tel won’t mean much once things settle down.
Turnbull will be fighting on two fronts, labor and the hard right.
I also don’t think he will have much loyalty or discipline in the party room.
Happiness@1490
No further proof of what I said about you is needed.
Mod Lib
Good to see you back. I turned up last week.
When the going is good, how can you not get involved on PB?
Re Itep @1478: Christopher Pyne is a nasty little toad. He’ll try to work things so he comes out on the winning side.
Happiness
Hello, Mod.
John Reidy + briefly
‘Tis the home of Fred Chaney after all 🙂
Hey Gary and zoomster, how have you both been?
I had an epiphany late last year (or to be precise the epiphany I had already had came back for seconds). I decided that I really can’t spend as much time here as I was spending. However, when there is a chance of Turnbull Prime Ministership or an election, then I will definitely be here! Other than that, it might just be the Sunday morning political shows and the odd QandA/7:30/Lateline (but not all of them).
Happiness@1496
Are you serious? He needs the endorsement of his party to do any of that. The same party that has been stacked with hard-right candidates ever since Abbott took leadership.
If reports are true, the Nationals are already forcing Turnbull to commit to not bring back an ETS and you think he can simply overhaul just about every LNP policy aside from asylum seeker policy? This is just delusional stuff.
He had all that last time he was leader of the LNP and he managed to get some of the worst poll ratings ever. What will count are policies. The LNP’s policies are about as popular as the bubonic plague.
Turnbull,
articulate, smart, well-presented, i.e. a good used-ute salesman or one of those guys who flog timeshares.
At least by now, Turnbull will be able to spot a fake email 🙂
102 is the number of Liberal seat warmers in Federal Parliament
So 52 for a majority. Now Frydenburg will be in Turkey, so that brings it down to 101 possibles, so 51 is needed. Can’t see it happening unless a block of ministers up and cross the room and vote for the spill – show of hands it will be, so no hiding. Ministers are toast if they are seen to break Cabinet solidarity.
They could try to force a secret ballot, which in itself would require 51 an a show of hands to get there. In a secret ballot, Abbott will be obliterated.
The LNP will take notice the press is cheering for Turnbull
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1513
People seem to have forgotten his last performance as LNP leader.
[In amongst all this noise, John Faulkner resigned from the Senate today at 4.50 pm.]
Faulkner will be a terrible loss.
McAllister will be a fantastic gain.
I see Mod Lib still hasn’t a clue about fraudband. He still thinks its cheaper and presumably thinks it won’t be scrapped in 5 years time.
Agreed Mod Lib.
When there’s an election or a spill, I’ll normally turn up here. But 80% of the other time I simply observe from afar.
Still think if Tony is rolled, Turnbull will be PM, Deputy Leader Bishop and Morrison as Treasurer.
Tone’s biggest supporter is Bill Shorten, just a shame he cant vote for him on Tuesday.
Bishop just doesnt want to lose her job as Foreign Minister but I bet after the Peru debacle and being told to be accompanied by Andrew Robb she has no love for Tone.
Liberals under Abbott:
– attack the poor, disadvantaged and young
– try to destroy the social contract including universal healthcare, public education, welfare support
– increase the burden on the least wealthy through increased costs of services that used to be provided by the state and increased indirect taxation whilst passing the savings onto the rich through lower direct taxes, loopholes and rorts.
– lie about it all before the election
– lead by a right wing ideologue with an inability to speak in more than three word slogans, nor the wit to at least try to camouflage what they are trying to pull.
Liberals under Turnbull:
– attack the poor, disadvantaged and young
– try to destroy the social contract including universal healthcare, public education, welfare support
– increase the burden on the least wealthy through increased costs of services that used to be provided by the state and increased indirect taxation whilst passing the savings onto the rich through lower direct taxes, loopholes and rorts.
– lie about it all before the election
– lead by a right wing ideologue with an ability to speak in more than three word slogans, and the wit to at least try to camouflage what they are trying to pull.
The current cabinet are a bunch of duds, including Turnbull, but how do you change them? Many in the background are even more inept that the ministers. 2013 brought in a horde of Tony clones. This pig is going to need a lot of lipstick.
Gary Sparrow
That was pretty cheeky of Bill this morning saying he supported Tones remaining as PM.
sprocket_@1515
Saw something about 80 votes needed to even get a spill bought on.
Is that correct ?
Then a simple majority of those present on the actual vote for leader ?
[Ministers are toast if they are seen to break Cabinet solidarity.]
If the backbench have anywhere near enough numbers (say 40) then the ministers and parly secs will break ranks and get it over the line. Once the vote happens Abbott is dead, so they have nothing to lose by breaking for the winning side and letting everyone know it.
Very good comments from David Marr
[But to an uncomfortable degree he remains the man recruited in his teens by the conservative fanatic BA Santamaria to save the nation from the future.
Stopping things became his forte: stopping student radicals, stopping the republic, stopping Pauline Hanson, stopping Rudd and Gillard, stopping the boats. He is very good at it. His greatest boast at the Press Club was the list of all he had stopped.
And what’s it all for?]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/06/tony-abbott-is-in-trouble-because-he-never-let-the-junkyard-dog-go
While Malcolm is regarded by many, especially Malcolm, as the smartest guy in Parliament, he was a dud opposition leader and he’d be another dud PM. Same toxic policies, slightly better salesman.
I am thinking about how the meeting will go.
Presumably the motion will be forwarded and then seconded,
The terms – as determined by Abbott, a show of hands will be specified.
They there will be speeches, both for and against. I assume Tone won’t go for shock and awe, wisely the ‘underwhelm’ approach reprising the NPC address.
Then the spill vote.
After that, who knows, it the spill passes then we are in unknown territory.
BTW what time will the meeting be ? I heard Tuesday afternoon, but isn’t parliament, specifically QT on?
If the spill passes it could take a while.
[dave
…Saw something about 80 votes needed to even get a spill bought on.]
That was Chris Ulman saying that if Abbott has the Ministry then there are < 70 votes left of which the spill motion would need 50.
52/<70 = 80% (roundabout)
Gary Sparrow@1520
The tories supporting abbott may yet get him across the line next week – all helping Labor as well.
God bless their little cotton socks.
Leave abbott as leader to do more damage – good stuff.
Chuck him out and the infighting and dud policies sail on – good stuff.
briefly, you might be interested in this story if you haven’t seen it already
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/wa-liberals-react-to-leadership-showdown/story-e6frfku9-1227210949359
From that
[Senator Chris Back
“I liken it to a family dispute and, therefore, best sorted out round the dining room table and not best sorted out in the public arena. Luke hasn’t approached me to canvass my views on the action he’s taken.”]
I’d say that probably puts him more towards supporting the spill.
Hey Lizzie
Something was troubling our noisy mynahs in the back yard and then we spotted what looked like an owl. Off to page 152 in Simpson & Day and it seems that it id a Southern Boobook or Hawk Owl.
Lovely!
🙂
[ His greatest boast at the Press Club was the list of all he had stopped ]
Either sooner or later he can add himself to the list of things he has stopped.
Most of this mess is his own work.
Thats the best bit.
Really!
dave
[God bless their little cotton socks]
Be cotton sock wearing turkeys voting for xmas.
poroti
I think they are stuffed either way.
Not that it could be allowed to go on the way it was either.
Drink 🙂
Dont normally agree with David Marr but gees he’s spot on about Abbott (everything he’s stopped).
The only thing Abbott said he did was build roads.
That’s a joke!
Pinstripe Pete has just posted this JBish missive, straight from her office after she was verbal led by Abbott.
[
When Julie Bishop returned to Australia from visiting Afghanistan last week, she could see that Tony Abbott’s prime ministership was in serious difficulty.
She phoned him on Thursday last week and told him she was not campaigning for his job. Neither was anyone else, as far as she could see. The deputy offered to work with the leader to improve the government’s fortunes. She offered to help him with the major speech he was scheduled to give to the National Press Club the following week.
Abbott, apparently suspicious of Bishop’s motives, brushed aside her offers and a tense and sometimes angry conversation followed. Abbott rejected his deputy’s help. Trust seemed to have evaporated. This phone conversation is analogous to the moment when trust between the then prime minister, Kevin Rudd, and his deputy, Julia Gillard, broke.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-inside-story-of-how-the-liberal-leadership-duo-of-tony-abbott-and-julie-bishop-cracked-20150206-13884m.html
Gary@1536
Yes I am now aware of a single road the Federal Govt can take credit for (i.e. were not already planned by prev govt.)
It is quite possible a Turnbull leadership would generate instability from the right dissenting, and the Abbott supporters playing havoc. However, if it is Shorten vs. Turnbull I reckon the LNP get a comfortable to landslide win anyway.
If the Nats leave the Coalition agreement do the LNP Nats go with them, or does the Qld LNP stay with the Libs? If the QLD LNP stick around, the Libs don’t need the Nats to form government so Turnbull won’t care if they leave……might even help in the election.
Australia has an appalling human rights record (Aborigines and refugees). Will Turnbull do something to address it? Is he just talk? Probably the latter. My guess is he will continue Abbott’s policies on this and other issues – climate change, SSM, etc. – as he doesn’t want to upset his troops.
The SMH is jumping at shadows trying to make a story out of leadershit.
Example: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-comes-out-fighting-as-leadership-crisis-heats-up-20150206-1389ba.html
[“Showdown: PM accused of ‘verballing’ Bishop ”
Tony Abbott has dug in against a party-room move to dump him, declaring that he and deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop would “stand together” to defeat a spill motion at Tuesday’s scheduled meeting.
But the crisis engulfing his leadership has not abated, according to critics who have accused him of “verballing” and “misrepresenting” his deputy, while noting that what support she has provided, is the bare minimum required of her position.”]
Really? “Critics”? Whats their name? Someone down at the pub?
The SMH is really running with this one but I reckon the punters are starting to get bored with the obvious editorilisation of the truth.
@danielflitton: Just had Newspoll call on the home phone, wanting the youngest person between 18-49 years of age #libspill #auspol
After the 2013 election there must have been a strong temptation for current and future opposition leaders to model themselves on Tony Abbott’s example. I’m guessing that temptation is diminishing by the hour.
dave
[Drink 🙂 ]
Drink ? After playing that game with the word “strong” I was maggoted within 30 minutes watching what Abbott and his supporters speaking.
Fran
Boobooks. How nice. Dear little owls. They often call around here at night but I never see one.
Someone noted words to the effect:
“Gina’s sold her Fairfax stock”
Maybe she’s going to by Rupreckt’s print operations in Australia instead.
It’s not so far fetched. News campaigned hard in QLD & lost. His puppet in Abbott is also on the ropes. He seems to have cut the libs loose entirely in the last few days. His kids don’t want the print assets & another campaign to get the Libs up might take years. Rupe might devote all his attention to US politics from now on & dump the ink blots in Australia to someone just like Gina.
Just thinkin out loud…
sohar@1540
plenty of stuff on the record from him and of him rolling over –
[ Former Liberal Leader Turnbull on Abbott
Dec 7, 2009 – MALCOLM Turnbull has today described the new Liberal leader Tony Abbott’s views on climate change as “bullshit” and vowed to cross the floor ]
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/turnbull-blasts-abbotts-bullshit-climate-change-stance-20091206-kdn5.html
Reset button well and truly hit! Now taking a bit of time to service blown Vacuum Tubes and install new Modulator Demodulator… then we reboot into Real Tony!
poroti 1544
you should have stuck with veneer.
Gary Sparrow
Talking to Liberals who claim to know Kelly O’Dwyer, they tell me that she is far less supportive of Tony’s leadership than we see coming from the likes of Josh F.