I’m going to progressively add a region-by-region post mortem to this thread as I go, so be sure to hit “refresh” every now and then if you’re hovering around the site and you think that might of use to you (UPDATE: Scratch that – I’ll do it tomorrow). I’ll start by answering a question that will be on the lips of many: how did the polls (and by implication the poll aggregators – see the sidebar) get it so wrong? The answer to this is simple: by allocating preferences as they flowed at the 2012 election. In fact, the pollsters did well at predicting the primary vote. As noted two posts back, all three late-reporting pollsters essentially had the LNP on 42% and Labor on 37%. The present vote totals are 40.8% and 38.1%, and they will probably edge closer in the direction of the poll results during late counting. This tends to argue against the notion that there was a violent late surge to Labor – and also the notion that there is likely to be a particularly big move back to the LNP on late counting.
The real key to the surprise is that Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences went from 27% to 45%, the LNP’s went from 22% to 15%, and the exhaustion rate fell from 51% to 39%. This is based on slightly incomplete data, but it should be probably be near enough. Applying those preference flows to the current primary vote totals, it’s Labor and not the LNP that comes out 52-48 ahead, contrary to what all three of the aforementioned polls said. If the pollsters had been operating on accurate assumptions concerning preferences, they would have come out at 51-49 to Labor. Which gives them a lot to think about going forward, particularly with another optional preferential election on the way in New South Wales in a little under two months.
Anyhow, stay tuned.
UPDATE: Or I could leave it for tomorrow. Yes, I think that’s the go actually. Here’s a table that should set you a long way towards working out what I’ll end up saying. Seats are rated in doubt if Labor is ahead by less than 1.8% or the LNP is ahead by less than 1.2%, according to a crude 0.3% estimate of how much late counting generally favours the conservatives. The six in question are Mansfield (Labor leads by 0.1%), Mount Ommaney (LNP by 0.9%) and Redlands (LNP by 0.9%), in Southern Brisbane; Ferny Grove (Labor by 1.6%), in Northern Brisbane; and Whitsunday (LNP by 0.2%) and Maryborough (a special case, in that it will come down to who finishes second out of Labor and independent Chris Foley) on the Central Coast. Since Maryborough is in doubt between Labor and an independent, the ceiling for the LNP is 43, which includes the long shot of Ferny Grove.
| LNP | ALP | GRN | LNP | ALP | OTH | DOUBT | |
| Inner Brisbane | 41.6% | 40.1% | 15.7% | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| -8.2% | +7.2% | +1.5% | -7 | +7 | 0 | ||
| Northern Brisbane | 41.3% | 44.3% | 8.9% | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| -11.4% | +14.0% | +0.6% | -9 | +8 | 0 | ||
| Southern Brisbane | 38.7% | 47.1% | 8.7% | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3 |
| -11.1% | +13.7% | +1.2% | -11 | +8 | 0 | ||
| Ipswich | 29.0% | 54.3% | 7.0% | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| -9.4% | +20.4% | +1.3% | -2 | +2 | 0 | ||
| Gold Coast | 48.1% | 30.2% | 7.8% | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -10.2% | +6.6% | +1.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Sunshine Coast | 45.2% | 24.2% | 12.7% | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| -12.4% | +7.8% | +0.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Central Coast | 35.2% | 38.2% | 4.5% | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| -6.8% | +13.1% | +0.3% | -5 | +4 | -1 | ||
| Northern Coast | 36.8% | 40.6% | 6.1% | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| -3.4% | +13.1% | +0.4% | -6 | +6 | 0 | ||
| Urban Hinterland | 45.0% | 30.5% | 6.1% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -5.6% | +11.3% | +0.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Interior | 46.6% | 23.5% | 4.0% | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| -5.5% | +8.5% | +0.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| TOTAL | 40.8% | 38.1% | 8.4% | 38 | 42 | 3 | 6 |
| -8.9% | +11.5% | +0.9% | -40 | +35 | -1 | ||
This is a must listen
http://insidestory.org.au/queensland-how-it-happened-and-what-it-means
[Podcasts
Queensland: how it happened and what it means
1 February 2015
As the count continues on the day after the election, Inside Story’s election analyst Brian Costar talks to Peter Clarke about a remarkable result
To the surprise of most commentators, Labor looks set to form government in Queensland. Not so surprised was Brian Costar, professor of politics at the Swinburne Institute for Social Research. He talks to Peter Clarke about what went wrong for the Liberal National Party.]
Sorry, here is Alex the Douglas’s HTV: http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/2015/HTVcards/Gaven/DOUGLAS,%20Alex.pdf
Glen
The results as posted on Qlde Electorate commission site do NOT include prepolls at ALL.
Not sure why Mr Green thinks they have been.
To answer William’s post heading question, all you really need to know is the link provided by Leroy Lynch at comment #42. Now we need to see Working for Queenslanders translated into the federal sphere by CPSU and others.
Mansfield is extremely close. Expecting postals to go against us, but not sure how much.
Did well at the booth I was on (Upper Mount Gravatt).
A few people bought up the name.
Adam’s poor mother is going to have a heart attack before the result is known.
The ECQ site is showing first preference for most prepolls now, but not 2pp.
Sorry DTD but many pre-poll booth totals are shown on the ECQ site and were all added late in the count last night and had some effects on the seat counts, most notably in Mt Ommaney.
ABC has now dropped the doubtful to just 4
FG to ALP=43
GH,MO,A,SthP to LNP=39
At this stage I am predicting”
ALP 43
LNP 42
KAT 2
I 2
Jeepers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I see the ECQ are also now adding some postal votes into the totals.
And the ECQ just added in some postals for Mansfield a few minutes ago. Not good.
WB.
Thank you for addressing this issue and the pollsters performance in the 2015 Qld Election.
Undoubtedly the recent polling in NSW for the upcoming election is an opportunity for the pollsters to improve their performance given that many of the concerned raised by you could be applied in NSW.
LNP 51% after first lot of postals so we can cross that off the in doubt seats.
The pre-polls have been counted in most electorates. On the QEC site in the booth analysis they are listed as “Returning Officer (electorate) Pre Poll”
Shifty
OK
I have found the prepolls in the detail. What is not listed is prepolls in person that are absentees or declararion
Not sure why but I assume they are votes cast in polling booths not in the electorate.
Kev Johnno
It is not always clear with postals. The libs stole a march on the ALP and got their applications for postals off early.
Might be a swing back in later arrivals
DTD – Hope so.
[I don’t think there should necessarily be an early election at all, the situation is the same as in 2013 under Gillard.]
Gillard announced the election within 3 weeks of becoming leader.
For Rudd 13 it was 5 weeks.
Shifty
I see what you mean. Not good but still early days!!!
Sorry, wrong thread.
#79
What is it with people who continue to think that debt is necessarily a bad thing? Did they all save every cent in order to buy their house, or their car? Or did they arrange a mortgage or a car loan?
Yes, I’m probably simplifying things but surely it’s when debt becomes unmanageable that you have a problem and I don’t think QLD or even Australia are in that position. We certainly aren’t Greece.
It’s this constant Liberal mantra that we are all doomed because Labor cannot manage the economy and always leaves us with piles of debt. Garbage.
Interest rates are low, we have a good credit rating. Borrow now to build that infrastructure instead of waiting 40 years when it will cost considerably more. Instead of that the Liberals sell off assets to thier rich mates and bugger the ordinary worker.
I hasten to add I’m not an economist but they are mostly like weather-forecasters anyhow.
I wonder which way “Uncertain Identity” votes lean. Likely quite a few, with new rules.
Given how keen the LNP was to get the laws in place, you’d have to assume that they at least think voters without formal ID are likely to lean to Labor.
One more in the cart
[Independent MP Peter Wellington says he’s happy to help Labor form a minority government in Queensland, because he wants the Liberal National Party gone.
Incredibly, Labor is on track to govern in its own right after being left with a mere seven seats in the state’s 89-seat parliament at the 2012 election.
But there is a possibility Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk may need to call on the support of Katter’s Australian Party MPs and Mr Wellington to form a minority government.
Mr Wellington says if that’s the case, he won’t ask anything of Ms Palaszczuk.
He’ll just be happy to see an end to the LNP’s privatisation plans and its “arrogant” leadership style.
“There’s no way in the world I’d want to part of a team or support (Deputy Premier) Jeff Seeney or (Attorney-General) Jarrod Bleijie or those style of ministers to continue what we’ve seen for the last three years,” Mr Wellington said.
]
Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/02/01/00/52/labor-on-cusp-of-return-to-power-in-qld#AwjUEshpPqjjqHKd.99
Surely Gaven must go into the doubtful column, looking at the numbers. If voters for Douglas follow the HtV then it is an ALP win!!!
Anyone on the ground in Gaven?
[“Glen/Truthy/TBA, you’re as wrong about supposed debt as you are wrong about every other discussion on the subject of politics and economics. If this hasn’t shown you that you don’t have a clue what’s going on, nothing will.”]
No answers… no solutions… no policies… typical Labor supporter.
Let me dumb it down for you so you can understand. Because of the binge spending under the previous Labor Government, Queensland is now $80Billion in debt.. the highest per capita debt ratio anywhere in the country.
Because of that debt Queenslanders now pay $5 BILLION Dollars in Interest(not paying it off.. just the interest part) per year.
Now to make it really really easy for you to understand… $5 Billion dollars is now paid to debt collector man every year BEFORE paying Doctors, Nurses, School Teachers, Policemen and Firemen.
It’s not sustainable… how is Labor going to pay off the debt? They can’t spend the money from Asset profits twice, so where is the money coming from?
Be interesting to see how many valid polling day declaration votes from the new ID requirements there are in the “close” contests.
My bet is there will be quite a lot, and that they will heavily favour the ALP.
122
That would seem likely but in the 2014 Stafford by-election, the LNP did 6.8% better on uncertain identity votes than in the election overall.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2014/stafford/result.htm
As mentioned, the interesting part is that NSW is also OPV … so polling is based on 2011 preference flows against a hated government. The Lib primaries are strong enough… but unless the Leadershit issue is handled, the contagion will spread.
[“Be interesting to see how many valid polling day declaration votes from the new ID requirements there are in the “close” contests. “]
Why would there be a lot? Valid ID included:
a current driver licence;
a current Australian passport;
a voter information letter issued by the commission;
a recent document evidencing electoral enrolment;
an identification card issued by the Commonwealth or State evidencing the person’s entitlement to a financial benefit;
Examples — a Commonwealth seniors health card, health care card, Medicare card, pensioner concession card or repatriation health card
an adult proof of age card issued by the State;
a recent account or notice issued by a local government or a public utility provider;
Examples — a council rates notice, electricity account statement, gas account statement or water bill
a recent account statement, current account card or current credit card issued by a financial institution;
a recent account statement issued by a carriage service provider as defined under the Telecommunications Act 1997 (Commonwealth);
Examples — a telephone bill or internet bill
a recent notice of assessment issued under the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (Commonwealth).
How many people in Queensland do you think were unable to provide 1 of those on the day?
Also worth remembering that if people without ID were actually sent away, as it has been suggested happened in booths in some areas, rather than being given a declaration envelope, then the electoral act has been breached. In very close contests this could even lead to a new election.
[It’s not sustainable… how is Labor going to pay off the debt? They can’t spend the money from Asset profits twice, so where is the money coming from?]
By getting rid of Campbell Newman and his idiotic government.
This was accomplished last night.
TBA:
[…Queensland is now $80 Billion in debt]
That’s correct and in 2 and a bit years the LNP did nothing about it and according to the 2014 Budget papers the forecast debt in 2016 would be, wait for it – $80 Billion. As Swan pointed out so well last night, this demonization of government debt is idiotic. Out of government, households, business and farms the one best to be in debt and the one most likely to be able to service debt is government. In TBA’s world apparently it’s households that should be stuck with the burden, with the cost of health and education put on mum and dad’s credit card. Reducing household sector earnings (by attacking wages and conditions) or reducing discretionary income with burdensome credit card debt is not the way to grow the economy. As long as government borrowings are for growth enabling investments and measures that build productive capacity then there is nothing wrong with debt. If government is borrowing to fund recurrent expenditure then that is another matter and requires serious structural and fiscal reform that goes beyond selling the house to pay the mortgage.
Did KAP direct preferences no their HTV cards in Lockyer? Anyone know? Theoretically (although you’d have to say it’s highly unlikely) it’s possible they could leap Hanson and then defeat the LNP.
daretotread@63
So you have no actual evidence? That’s all you had to say.
Raaraa @60:
Trickle-down economics is concessions for the “job creators” and those industries with the most lobbying power.
That’s all it is – take money from the poor and middle class, give it to the rich and wait for the wealth to trickle back down. It asserts that upon giving the rich that money, the rich will go against their own best interests and invest that money “for the good of the community”, rather than doing whatever gets them the best possible return.
George Bush Sr. (no leftie) described it best back when Reagan first proposed it in 1980: “Voodoo Economics”.
More than you might imagine, TBA. Identity proof is a vexed issue for many indigenous Australians and document storage for poorer, itinerant, sections of the community can be a real hassle.
Many of the docs listed actually require a birth certificate and estimates vary but around 5% of the population have never had their births registered.
Rates notices & utility account statements only work for those who are actually the primary account holders.
True, most people have been issued a medicare card at some stage, but it doesn’t mean they still possess it.
But the issue is actually having it with you at the time you go to vote. It is clear that quite a number of people weren’t actually aware there had been a change in requirements. In such circumstances the issuing officer was required to provide a declaration envelope.
A rather pathetic request from someone who missed the entire election by being in the air: are there highlights from last night’s ABC election coverage somewhere?
[$5 Billion dollars is now paid to debt collector]
He’s your guy TBA. Or are you worried inflation will prevent any profit being made off that debt?
Petrol prices will bounce, oil producers are used to shafting us. I’ve seen the price of fresh food going up and your guys want to tax this essential.
Your arguments are primitive and devoid of nuance. Fear the money printers.
ltep @133, yes they did, but I would imagine this would be cancelled out (at least) by the ALP and Greens directing preferences to Rickuss ahead of Hanson.
Itep and anyone else who’s interested – all the registered H2V cards are viewable via http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/2015QLD.aspx?id=11952 In Lockyer KAP said 1 us, 2 Hanson said 1 me, 2 KAP, Greens put ALP 2nd, LNP 2nd-last and Hanson last, and ALP put Greens 2nd, LNP 5 and leave Hasnon blank. PUP didn’t register one – either because they respect voters’ ability to choose or because they’re rank amateurs. So probably LNP to hold on ALP prefs!
Alan Shore @132:
Such a pity that Swanny’s embrace of fiscal rationality only comes after he left the Treasurer’s desk. The ALP went along with the LNP’s demonisation of public spending for far, far too long.
Matt, totally agree but Swanny was on fire last night. I want to know where was that Swanny when Labor was in government?
[Matt, totally agree but Swanny was on fire last night. I want to know where was that Swanny when Labor was in government?]
Too busy promising unnecessary surpluses instead of investing in job creation.
True Blue
Most of that debt is owned to Australians, debt is only a problem if the country or entity hasn’t got the ability to make repayments, otherwise have an element of debt on the balance sheet is a normal part of everyday business.
Apple not only just recorded its biggest ever profit but has in recent times taken on debt in order to fund business projects which haev helped to create its record profit.
If you are that concerned by debt then go and buy yourself some Aussie 10 year bonds, whilst the yield may be low, at least you will be receiving some benefit from the government having a deficit.
Basically as others have said, Swannie after about 2010 fell badly fr the need to return Australia to surplus rather than celebrating the successful avoidance of the GFC.
[“That’s correct and in 2 and a bit years the LNP did nothing about it and according to the 2014 Budget papers the forecast debt in 2016 would be, wait for it – $80 Billion.”]
They did do something about it.. they were bringing the budget back to surplus.
This is as opposed to this way of thinking:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/states-interest-bill-to-hit-100m-a-week-20110613-1fzt4.html
[“The Queensland government will soon be paying more than $5 billion in interest on its debt each year, Treasurer Andrew Fraser has revealed.
But Mr Fraser declared today that debt levels would be “manageable”, amid opposition claims the government was mismanaging the economy.”]
God help Queensland…
[ltep @133, yes they did, but I would imagine this would be cancelled out (at least) by the ALP and Greens directing preferences to Rickuss ahead of Hanson.]
Yes, but it only gets to that place if Labor finish below Hanson before the final round of counting. Hanson is only 2.6% ahead of Labor on the PV, so if Labor could get enough of the 2nd preference from Greens and KAP they may pass Hanson. Then it’d be interesting to see if they could also pass LNP. I’d imagine not, but still interesting.
[Too busy promising unnecessary surpluses instead of investing in job creation.]
That was truly foolish and any mug could see how it was going to end.
Swanny claimed last night that “The Libs were making out Debt and Deficit were the end of the world” which is hilarious coming from a guy who for 3 Years… on 400 seperate occasions declared the budget was coming back into surplus.
I mean Swanny is a complete failure at everything he promised to do so now he’s claiming he doesn’t care about surpluses… which by the way is EXACTLY everything that is wrong with Labor. They want to put us on the train to Greece
TBA, 129
There were a lot of declaration votes cast yesterday.
My wife was one of 4 doing just declaration votes in an average sized voting station. They were busy all day.