Some odds and sods concerning the Queensland election campaign, which is now in progress after Campbell Newman’s announcement yesterday of a remarkably unorthodox January 31 polling date:
• The timetable for the election has been tailored to put all concerned under as much duress as possible. The Electoral Act allows for a five to seven day period before the closure of the rolls, and Newman has opted for five. This means the deadline for enrolment falls on Saturday, and not as it might have done on Monday. The closure of nominations can be set for between eight and 18 days after the start of the campaign – Newman has made it eight, meaning prospective candidates must have their paperwork in by noon next Tuesday. This gives Labor as little time as possible to sort out its preselection for the important seat of Lytton, where its candidate withdrew last month. The entire campaign period, of course, has been kept to the very bare minimum of 26 days, when it could theoretically have been drawn out to 56.
• Independent MP Liz Cunningham announced yesterday that she will not seek another term in her Central Queensland seat of Gladstone. Cunningham has held the seat since the 1995 election, and her vote in parliament was decisive in tipping Wayne Goss’s Labor government from office after its defeat in the Mundingburra by-election the following February. However, Gladstone is naturally Labor territory, to the extent that the LNP could only manage 10.9% of the vote even amid the 2012 landslide. Labor’s candidate is Glenn Butcher, a maintenance superintendent at Queensland Alumina. Local newspaper The Observer reports that Cunningham will today announce the candidate she endorses as her successor.
• The Courier-Mail reported last week that Labor is “scrambling to find a high-profile candidate” for Lytton, which given its 1.6% LNP margin would appear all but certain to fall to Labor. Its first choice, Daniel Cheverton, withdrew last month after a female colleague accused him of inappropriate behaviour after a campaign training session. Those mentioned in the Courier-Mail report are Peter Davis, former Bar Association president; Mike Kaiser, former party state secretary and briefly the member for Woodridge from 2000 to 2001, when he fell foul of the Shepherdson inquiry; Laura Fraser Hardy, who ran unsuccessfully in Bonner at the September 2013 federal election; and “long-time local party member Joan Pease”. Davis, who quit the Bar Association in protest against the government’s enormously contentious appointment of Tim Carmody as Chief Justice (who happened to do the honours in signing off on the writs for the election yesterday, acting in the absence of Governor Paul De Jersey, who was his predecessor as Chief Justice), is said to have been the subject of determined approaches from Annastacia Palaszczuk.
• Other preselections that still need resolving are Maroochydore, Buderim and Southern Downs for Labor, and Gladstone, Bundamba and South Brisbane for the LNP. None of the seats is a serious prospect for the party in question.
• A scan through the University of Western Australia elections database by Jared Owens of The Australian reveals that this will be “the first general election held in January since Tasmanians voted in January 1913 and the first on the mainland since the NSW colonial election of 1874-75”.
• As I was caught on the hop as much as anyone by the election announcement, the trustworthy Poll Bludger seat-by-seat election guide is still a work in progress. Estimated time of arrival: middle of next week.
The LNP have sent out an email asking for volunteers. 😆
Further to the debate on why Newman went to the polls early, i was wondering about his super package? Let us assume he is going to lose Ashgrove on 31 January and exits parliament. As a defeated premier, what would he get after one term? In scenario two, if he stayed on and was defeated in the party room, then he would still lose Ashgrove in March, this time as a one term back bencher. What would he get then? Does anyone know how the schemes work and how much difference it would make?
Of course, his real motive is no doubt to serve the people, and provide certainty to Qld. He cares about others. Still, I was just curious whether unselfish Campbell may inadvertently have increased his own payout?
[ruawake
Posted Wednesday, January 7, 2015 at 7:01 am | Permalink
The LNP have sent out an email asking for volunteers. 😆 ]
As has the ALP and I presume most other parties well.
The short campaign period might limit the amount of “assistance” he gets from his federal counterparts.
Smart move.
I do not think it is fair to call the early election a stunt or opportunistic. Look at all the brilliant new policy measures Campbell announced when he called the poll. This is a man with a plan.
The short election period also limits the time left to enrol for new voters – to four days!
[Queenslanders have been given just four days to ensure their enrolment was up-to-date, following Premier Campbell Newman’s decision to call a snap state election for January 31.]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-enrolment-timing-blasted-as-antiyouth-20150106-12j1qw.html
No doubt this was an unintended consequence since most young voters love their premier.
No doubt a range of Qld Polls out and about this weekend or sooner.
Jeff Seeney will make a great premier, as the polls should show. He will also be inclusive, ruling for farmers and graziers alike.
dave
Posted Wednesday, January 7, 2015 at 8:16 am | Permalink
Ha!
A classic – “he would say that, wouldn’t he” comment, but gave me a chuckle –
Queensland Premier Campbell Newman has declared this month’s state election is “not about Tony Abbott”, as Liberal National Party insiders said the last thing the party would want is for the Prime Minister to play a prominent role in the campaign.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-set-for-lowkey-role-in-queensland-election-campaign-20150106-12isvt.html
The Banana Benders will decide what the election is about, not Can’tDo.
Day One of the campaign and no mention, no questions about the GST.
At this traditional holiday season, Newman has ensured there is no rest for the wicked.
William must be very, very wicked.
I assure you Labor has NOT needed to send out any emails asking for volunteers. I am reliably informed that the number of enthusiasts at the Ashgrove campaign meeting last night stunned everyone, especially Kate Jones.
Among all the other issues in the Qld election, Labor should ask the question “What is Newman afraid of?”, that he needed to spring the election on the voters during the holiday period. What doesn’t he want the voters to know? Why isn’t he giving new voters enough of a chance to sort out their enrolment? What was so urgent that it couldn’t wait a couple of weeks?
He’s afraid of the voters. He wants to catch them by surprise in the hope they’ll just vote the same as last time. He’s afraid of young voters and doesn’t want them to have a chance to pass a verdict on him and the LNP. Voters should give him reason to be afraid.
[daretotread
Posted Wednesday, January 7, 2015 at 8:48 am | Permalink
I assure you Labor has NOT needed to send out any emails asking for volunteers. I am reliably informed that the number of enthusiasts at the Ashgrove campaign meeting last night stunned everyone, especially Kate Jones.]
That’s funny I got one from the ALP last night which included this line “You can help your local campaign right now by volunteering today.”
You might think the ALP has NOT needed to send out emails but it appear Anthony Chisholm disagrees.
This is standard for all elections for the major parties which is what I was trying to point out in my reply to Ruawake.
Steve777 I hope someone senior from Labor Qld HqQ is monitoring this thread because I think that is a great angle to push. Obviously also including the successful tactic of morphing Abbott/Newman in the same way Napthine was in Victoria.
ABC News Breakfast managed to do a segment on the QLD Election this morning, a bit after 6:30. Lots of talk about a union campaign, not a single word to suggest the ALP has a leader, and that leader has a name. They then announced that they’d be joined later by a NewsCorpse (not their word) “political analyst”, at which point I turned them off.
Kev Johnno
Yes of course standard emails go out. The real issue is hard they need to push. In Ashgrove anyway a simple email advising that there would be a meeting led to 50 plus people turning up.
Lance/Steve
I actually disagree with you. Labor should NOT go for attacks on Newman. It backfired last time. In Ashgrove of course the focus should be on Newman, but everywhere else it should be on policies.
The adds the ALP needs to run are:
1. about privatisation – pointing out to voters that long term leases are just sales by another name
2. public hospitals and the loss of quality doctors
3. Unemployment
4. Abbott/Newman/Seeney/Springmorg morphs
5. Great barrier reef
6. Loss of services
@Daretotread
I also received an email from Kate Jones on 1 Dec 2014 ( just a month ago) with this.
“And of course, if you would like to volunteer, you can also register via http://www.katejones.com.au or contact my campaign office on (07) 3366 1766.”
While I agree it could theoretically be possible that the ALP does not need to email it’s supporters for help this time , it has, and would be mad not to. The same goes for all parties which is why I thought the LOL face in Rua’s post re Liberal emails to be unwarranted.
If this is correct, even more headwinds for Can’tDo –
[ Campbell Newman opts for an early poll that is expected to deliver a mandate for a power sell-off in the state.
The January 31 election will be key to kickstarting $30bn of asset sales in Queensland and, provided Newman’s LNP wins out, should ensure the Sunshine state beats NSW in the race to be first to market with highly sought-after power infrastructure. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/1/7/dataroom/dataroom-am-nabs-uk-exit-sign
Can anyone please tell me if Queensland is due for a redistribution soon?
On the electoral boundaries, the dates I get are:
2009-2015
2001-2006
1992-1999
Kev
This is a silly argument.
Of course the ALP will send out emails for help.
I was responding to RUA who seemed to imply that the LNP was having a bit of trouble getting volunteers.
I was simply saying that in Ashgrove there seems to be no trouble in getting volunteers. I hope that is true all over Qld.
Kev
Are you in Ashgrove??????
dave @ 20
Silly argument from Business Spectator. This could have been achieved by waiting two or three weeks and leaving people’s holidays intact. Even one week. To go in the last week of January seems bizarre.
Of course, Newman could have simply had a brain snap – convincing himself that he will get advantages, like catching the Opposition off guard, that really will not matter much or are even wrong. I just cannot see anyone but politics tragics like me welcome full-on campaigning in January. In addition, it smells of panic. Even uninterested voters can smell panic and wonder what he is panicking about.
dtt @ 22
I think people will come from all over Queensland to campaign for Labor in Ashgrove.
Queensland has a redistribution after every third election. There will be a redistribution before the 2018 election.
I am wondering if Newman though he would catch Kate Jones off guard, if he went in January. It certainly will reduce her chance to talk to people, but not her organisation which is smooth.
DTT
Redcliffe.
Campbell Newman on Tony Abbott:
Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn’t there.
He wasn’t there again today,
I wish, I wish he’d go away…
When I came home last night at three,
The man was waiting there for me
But when I looked around the hall,
I couldn’t see him there at all!
Go away, go away, don’t you come back any more!
Go away, go away, and please don’t slam the door…
Last night I saw upon the stair,
A little man who wasn’t there,
He wasn’t there again today
Oh, how I wish he’d go away…
Thanks Antony. Hope that wasn’t too hard to type out with your shoulder.
suggest slogan for labor and the greens: “Tell Newman and Abbott what you think of their unfair cuts and lies”
I wonder what piece of shit was about to hit which fan that decided him to go so early and so rushed. labor and the greens should also push the “desperate, chaotic, cynical and dishonest rush to the polls” angle. (I note the Oz today is lauding his timing as ‘his only chance to save seats’ rather than calling it ‘a cynical attempt to avoid scrutiny’ as I recall they called previous Beattie and Bligh elections).
there’s no doubt the electorate is bolshie – a run of rudd-gillard-rudd-abbott hasn’t helped, and particularly abbott as LotO and PM – but I hope labor can step up at state and federal levels – changing government every 3-4 years or having hung parliaments with right winf nutters with BoP is not good for the nation. The problem is that with the exception of turnbull, any LNP leader is going to model themselves on abbott’s LotO model. I think shorten needs to start calling for cooperation and bipartisanship on fair tax reform, education and health reforms, and cost-effective climate action etc and call out abbott when he will no cooperate. “We are prepared to support fair tax reform, and call on the government to work with us in the spirit of bipartisanship to listen to the public and develop reforms that are fair,etc” – and then put forward policy ideas. if abbott steals them, then call him out on it. If he rejects it, call him out and ask whose interests he is serving in rejecting it (clue – it will be ‘the 1%’ he is protecting/doing the bidding of).
suggest slogan for labor and the greens: “Tell Newman and Abbott what you think of their unfair cuts and lies”
I wonder what piece of shit was about to hit which fan that decided him to go so early and so rushed. labor and the greens should also push the “desperate, chaotic, cynical and dishonest rush to the polls” angle. (I note the Oz today is lauding his timing as ‘his only chance to save seats’ rather than calling it ‘a cynical attempt to avoid scrutiny’ as I recall they called previous Beattie and Bligh elections).
there’s no doubt the electorate is bolshie – a run of rudd-gillard-rudd-abbott hasn’t helped, and particularly abbott as LotO and PM – but I hope labor can step up at state and federal levels – changing government every 3-4 years or having hung parliaments with right winf nutters with BoP is not good for the nation. The problem is that with the exception of turnbull, any LNP leader is going to model themselves on abbott’s LotO model. I think shorten needs to start calling for cooperation and bipartisanship on fair tax reform, education and health reforms, and cost-effective climate action etc and call out abbott when he will no cooperate. “We are prepared to support fair tax reform, and call on the government to work with us in the spirit of bipartisanship to listen to the public and develop reforms that are fair,etc” – and then put forward policy ideas. if abbott steals them, then call him out on it. If he rejects it, call him out and ask whose interests he is serving in rejecting it (clue – it will be ‘the 1%’ he is protecting/doing the bidding of, and labor should not be afraid to point out that this government is the most blatant in doing the bidding of financial and ideological backers – I’d love to heard someone say: “Is Mr Abbott doing what is best for everyday Australians, or is he doing what rupert murdoch and gina rhinehardt think we need to do to create some libertarian dystopia where the mega-wealthy get more but everybody else is worse off?”).
oops – posted twice
“Tell Newman and Abbott what you think of their unfair cuts and lies”
Good line.
I think the ALP are an outside chance – but a real one – maybe 1 in 4 – of a major upset here.
In all likelihood though, it’ll be 50 seats for LNP and Premier Borg on Feb 1, with Campbell Newman adding one more to the record QLD unemployment figures he helped create.
Either way, the Newsman-loathers will have their day here.
Id also add “cynical stunt to ruin summer holidays and disenfranchise young QLDers” to the lines to chuck at the LNP here.
[I think the ALP are an outside chance – but a real one – maybe 1 in 4 – of a major upset here.]
How do you rate the hung parliament?
As I’ve said before, I’d expect the ALP to recover most of their Brisbane seats, and a few provincials. PUP are probably down from their peak but there must still be a big chance of PUP/KAP/PHON causing some carnage for the LNP in the regions.
[Id also add “cynical stunt to ruin summer holidays and disenfranchise young QLDers” to the lines to chuck at the LNP here.]
“Why are they trying to avoid scrutiny? What are they hiding? What further nasty surprises are they planning?”
“…must still be a big chance of PUP/KAP/PHON causing some carnage for the LNP in the regions.”
Itll be interesting to watch. Hanson in Lockyer is the only real chance for One Nation, but i think the LNP will hold on there, owing to Katter having a high profile candidate and OPV.
Mind you, that view is dependent on LNP and ALP continuing to pref each other over PHON – and I guess Im not 100% sure if that position (which was well entrenched from October 1998 on) still holds today.
As for PUP and KAT – Im too out of the loop to comment – though my general sense is both stars are dimming.
That said…. perfect pitch conditions for alternative right-wing parties to score a few LNP seats.
Talk about Unions protesting! The Doctor’s union protest is going to have a big effect – and the timing appears to be immaculate – should happen in the last week or so of the campaign 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-07/gps-lobby-mps-patients-ahead-of-looming-rebate-cut/6004394
Tom
[“…must still be a big chance of PUP/KAP/PHON causing some carnage for the LNP in the regions.”
Itll be interesting to watch. Hanson in Lockyer is the only real chance for One Nation, but i think the LNP will hold on there, owing to Katter having a high profile candidate and OPV.]
Of course with OPV the minors don’t need to win seats to cause trouble.
[As for PUP and KAT – Im too out of the loop to comment – though my general sense is both stars are dimming.
That said…. perfect pitch conditions for alternative right-wing parties to score a few LNP seats.]
Absolutely.
article not paywalled
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/queensland-election-2015-lnp-was-preparing-to-ditch-newman/story-fnr8rfrw-1227177111173
[Queensland election 2015: LNP ‘was preparing to ditch Newman’
AAP JANUARY 07, 2015 12:55PM
PALMER United Party leader Clive Palmer has claimed that Campbell Newman called a snap election because LNP members were preparing to ditch him from the leadership.
Mr Palmer told Fairfax Radio this morning he believed the government had also moved quickly to hold an election before fresh allegations of corruption were revealed in the current senate inquiry.
Mr Palmer said he had been told a spill was imminent.
“I’m informed by people in the LNP that there were moves afoot to dump him as premier next week, and Newman reacted very quickly,” he said.
The Queensland Premier called the snap election on Tuesday, with Queenslanders to go to the polls on January 31.
“This is a great travesty to the people of Queensland who will be getting the kids off to school, and before Newman goes he wants to make everyone’s life as much hell as he possibly can by holding the election during the holiday period to save his skin,” Mr Palmer said.
He said he was in possession of an email from a Queensland LNP senator urging PUP Senator Glenn Lazarus to wind up the current inquiry into government corruption.
Mr Palmer said Senator Lazarus refused and the government immediately called the election before the inquiry could resume in early February.]
Best wishes to Antony, who’s no doubt scrambling after the shoulder op to catch up with this shortened timetable.
I wonder if Labor’s going to go to the polls pointing out Newman’s plans to flog off electricity?
Pointing out that they wont flog off electricity would help the ALP.
I tend to believe the report that has emerged via Palmer. Acting Governor? January 31? with 6 months term to go?
yeah I think we can safely assume he was past the shoulder tap, and was about to get one on the head.
[ lefty e
Posted Wednesday, January 7, 2015 at 2:29 pm | Permalink
Pointing out that they wont flog off electricity would help the ALP. ]
As would pointing out they won’t wear the GST being increased etc.
LL @ 42
Any rumour that is repeated by Palmer instantly loses half its credibility. That said, it still remains the most logical reason I have seen for what seems to be the utterly bizarre calling of an election on 31 January.
And while anything Clive says as fact is highly suspect he has an amazing ability to sense the public mood with his utterances. So when he says ‘This is a great travesty to the people of Queensland who will be getting the kids off to school’, I’m sure he has caught the mood perfectly.
Any parent will know that the first week of school, even for returning students, is a pretty stressful time as you deal with class book lists, uniforms and, particularly, child care arrangements. Asking parents to vote at the end of the first week of school is crazy brave if you want to win. They will be dying to relieve their stress on someone responsible. Labor should be pressing education issues for all it’s worth in this campaign.
I should add, not to mention dealing with the stress of the children themselves as they adjust to a whole new set of challenges, friends not coming back, new teachers, etc.
Yeah I would’ve given the QLD ALP 1 in 5 last week – now Im giving them 1 in 4.
That increase is just on the basis of how freakin bizarre and annoying the snap election decision was. Must have been driven by Newman’s imminent demise.
The ALP could do worse than inquire as to why the unseemly rush at a terribly inconvenient time for QLD families. Whats the back story? Its terribly inconvenient timing.
Did I mention the inconvenience to families?
Every part of ‘Newman to be dumped’ makes perfect sense, until you get to the bit about finding a replacement. Unless they were going to pull the trigger without having a clear challenger. Which is a bit nuts, although not necessarily any more nuts than what’s happened.
Tweet by ReachTEL: Only @7NewsBrisbane has the first QLD state poll since the election was called. Tune in tonight for the results.