BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. [1521
    Posted Sunday, December 21, 2014 at 3:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Scott Morrison Minister for pushing people off social security.]

    He can use his immigration experience to consign uncooperative OAPs to Manus and Nauru where they won’t qualify for the pension any longer.

  2. I wonder if when Morrison holds a presser he will just put the journos on hold for 45 minutes. That’s what my mum tell me happens when she has a question for Centrelink.

  3. [BK
    Posted Sunday, December 21, 2014 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Perhaps Johnston could come back as Assistant Minister of Health with particular interest in homeopathy, reki and iridology.]

    Yeah? Maybe if you spell ‘reki’ ‘wrecki’.

  4. Nothing for Malcolm? Just the same old s… sandwich. Hysterical.
    He obviously wants Morrison to treat welfare recipients like Asylum seekers. This is going to be interesting.

  5. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, December 21, 2014 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 3m 3 minutes ago
    Brett Mason dumped. His resignation as Parl Sec back in 2009 helped set Abbott’s leadership in motion.

    As BB would say, there’s anothery who has learned to his own cost that anyone and everything is expendable when it comes to assuaging Abbott’s lust for power.

  6. Grattan : “This could be the restart the Abbott Government needed going into the new year or it could prove a mere reshuffling of deck chairs on the Titanic”

  7. Boerwar:

    Pretty much. The ground is littered with the political career carcasses of those who hitched their wagons to Abbott’s ascendancy.

  8. apparently Morrison’s new role would see him responsible for crafting “an holistic families package…

    Does part of the package involve a tour of Manus Island?

  9. ‘fess

    [I’ve had to mute also. There’s only so much Abbott one can take on a Sunday.]

    The Barbarians arrive at the door …

    Sometimes best to make sure the door is fortified and wait them out.

    This time will pass … and with a big backlash.

  10. Darren

    [ or it could prove a mere reshuffling of deck chairs on the Titanic]

    I doubt Tones could handle even a pack of cards.

    I’d think more internal trouble coming up.

  11. Looks like a bovver boy reshuffle – kick your enemies in the guts

    The weakened Hockey stays put- he is no threat

    Bishop’s mob weakened
    Pyne left alone
    Dutton to immigration!!!!!!
    Andrews to Defence!!!!!!
    Morrison to Social Security!!!!!!!!

  12. Grattan : “This could be the restart the Abbott Government needed going into the new year or it could prove a mere reshuffling of deck chairs on the Titanic”

    How insightful of the aging “journalist”….

  13. So moving Johnston out…ummm, who next to sacrifice to the Gods of Complete Incompetence down at Defence? Might as well be Andrews, who is a proven failure already.

    What a joke this is….the rotation of failures.

    Of course, the largest failure of all – Hockey – cannot be touched. To do so would be to concede the first 15 months of Government have been a comprehensive failure of strategy, policy and management.

  14. So, is having the bovver boy Morrison beating up social security recipients the best way to show that this govt wants to be fair and inclusive. Mmmmm.

  15. From Massola’s article:

    [Mr Abbott said the reshuffle “will put jobs and families at the heart of our political agenda for 2015. This is a ministry for jobs and families and it is a sign that this is a Government which wants the economy and the budget to be front and centre in the coming year.]

    Given the abysmal state of the economy and the disappearing jobs, by any logical measure Abbott should want to divert the electorate’s attention towards plane crashes and who he will shirtfront next.

  16. Doesn’t make a lot of sense.

    I am going with it bring a reshuffle for internal purposes. Pointing to a more serious leadership issue than I previously thought.

    If the Murdoch press try to make whoopie with the reshuffle and make it out to be turnaround then it’s a high risk one trick pony that will turnaround and bite them on their hairy crusty pustule covered behinds.

  17. Christian Porter to become Parliamentary Secretary to the PM…This suggests Bishop has been able to extract something in return for Johnston’s head. Porter, of course, is as boldly ignorant as he is orthodox on economic and fiscal matters. He will hardly be a source of innovative thinking for Abbott.

  18. As these are the first changes to this cabinet, shouldn’t it be referred to simply as a “shuffle”, rather than a re-shuffle?

  19. According to Scrot’s fellow happy clappers Dog wants us all to be rich, being rich is a sign you have pleased him. Which of course means being poor must mean you are unworthy and sinful, displeasing to the sight of Dog. What a guy to look after the disadvantaged on our society.

  20. There is another option. Maybe Morrison has a tiny amount of decency – his work had him on the verge of a breakdown and he needed a sabbatical.


  21. (Dedicate this one to you BK for services rendered during the year)

    The latest from Scott Morrison Minister for Social Services and Welfare Reform press conference

  22. Jack the InSanta ‏@JacktheInsider 8m8 minutes ago
    Kevin Andrews in Defence? We could be at war with the Anabaptists within hours

  23. [Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden · 6m 6 minutes ago
    Watch Scott Morrison turn his new portfolio & new role on Budget razor gang as quasi Eco team role talking /budget reform, would be my bet.]

  24. poroti

    Scott bullied and blackmailed the crossbenchers into passing his AS revisions. We can look forward to the same techniques to get the welfare changes through. The most worrying statement by Abbott was the budget being front and centre, and that he was looking to Scott to “strengthen the economy” i.e. bring budget back to surplus by squeezing the welfare recipients.

  25. Morrison might sort out the administrative mess in Social Services but will revive memories of his cruelty in Immigration every time he announces a “tightening” of eligibility for benefits.

    Peter Dutton, being an absolute log, will be unable to maintain Morrison’s manic control of Immigration and it will all start to turn to shit very quickly.

    Andrew’s, being generally incompetent, will be ridden over by the Defence bureaucracy and the service chiefs. Perhaps Abbott thinks that the defence establishment will be better at running things than any of his available talent but just wait for the first crisis when the minister has to front up.

    Sussan Ley may be very competent (as some seem to be saying) but unfortunately will have her career destroyed by having to front the medicare co-payment changes and the withdrawal of health funding to the states.

    Pyne is left in place to continue to lose the government votes every time he opens his mouth.

    etc etc

    The main result seems likely to be to bring every senior minister down to Abbott’s level of popularity – perhaps that’s the purpose of it all.

  26. victoria:

    It’s all about the politics!

    Interestingly when Abbott was raving about the last Labor govt being intergenerational thefts, Maiden tweeted that in her view it was the HOward govt that were more about taking from the future to fund the present.

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