BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. Frydenberg has been somewhat touted for promotion because of the 75,000 pages of legislation/regulations that have been cut.

    This is supposed to have ‘saved’ $2 billion… but no-one can quite put their hands on the $2 billion.

    Some of the regs would have been useful in their own way so may well have to be reinstituted when the disaster du jour does finally occur.

    Anyhoo, Frydenberg is certainly following rule No 1… keep jumping from ice floe to ice floe before your feet get wet.

  2. [poroti
    Posted Sunday, December 21, 2014 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    CTar1

    By next week the Ordnance Corps will be sourcing the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch]

    classic

  3. Mumble foreshadows the coming media op-ed commentary tomorrow:

    [Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 54m 54 minutes ago
    “This is the ministry Abbott should have announced in 2013.”
    “I think this is a very good reshuffle.”
    “The reshuffle we had to have?”
    “Yes.”]

  4. [Simon Birmingham @Birmo · 38s 38 seconds ago
    thrilled to be appointed Assistant Minister for Education & Training, will do all possible to ensure training drives jobs & participation.]

    An all SA team in education?

  5. I can’t wait to hear the specious reasons Abbott might give for the reinstitution of Science into the ministry.
    Dutton to Immigration, Andrews to Defence. You’ve gotta be joking!

  6. BK@1517

    I can’t wait to hear the specious reasons Abbott might give for the reinstitution of Science into the ministry.
    Dutton to Immigration, Andrews to Defence. You’ve gotta be joking!

    Yes one dead wood hack in those portfolios is bad enough, but two of them?

  7. Minister of what science?

    Having disembowelled Australian science Abbott has ‘fixed’ science by admitting that ‘science’ actually exists.

    He should have stuck to his ‘climate science is crap line.

    Another backflip.

  8. Oh yes! And Morrison to Social Services. The poor bastards working there have been getting it bad enough as it was. They are being asked to take an effective pay cut and to force bad news onto the vulnerable.

  9. [Pretty soon the Indonesians are going to be wondering how come all these disabled Australians are washing up in orange lifeboats.]
    Nice one Boerwar!

  10. [Pretty soon the Indonesians are going to be wondering how come all these disabled Australians are washing up in orange lifeboats.]

    LOL!

  11. 1315 @victoria
    Many thanks and same to you and yours.
    Been wiring up the back paddock fence in preparation for my daughters first horse (aka money guzzling beast) this morning. Hat goes off to those full time fencers out there!
    A change in treasurer may well diminish the entertaining comedy that is the current federal government.. But then again …

  12. Dropping Johnston snubs Bishop.

    Giving the Victorians a couple of extra jobs is a desperate attempt to save Victoria at the next election.

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