The latest result from Essential Research has both major parties a point down on the primary vote, in both cases from 40% to 39%. This makes room for increases of one point for the Greens and two points to others, both now at 10%, while Palmer United is now at 2%, which I believe to be a new low. Also featured are Essential Research’s regular monthly personal ratings, which offer yet another belting for Tony Abbott, who is down seven points on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 55%. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 39%, and has opened up a 36-31 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 36-34 last time.
There’s also results on how various politicians have performed over the past year, which are predictable in direction but very interesting in degree. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and, more excusably, Christine Milne have equally poor net ratings of minus 22%, minus 24% and minus 23% respectively (Milne having an undecided rating quite a bit higher than the other two). The big eye-openers are Clive Palmer at minus 50% and Julie Bishop at plus 28%. Rather less interestingly, Bill Shorten is at minus 5%.
The poll also finds the issues respondents most want addressed over the coming year are improving the health system and reducing unemployment, with less concern for public transport investment, environmental protection, investment in roads and, in last place, free trade agreements. Respondents also deem it to have been a bad year for pretty much everything, most especially “Australian politics in general” at minus 53% (which is still an improvement on minus 62% last year”), the only exceptions being large companies and corporations (plus 14%) and “you and your family overall” (plus 3%).
A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage records weaker support than the particularly strong showing in June, at 55% (down five) with 32% opposed (up four).
BB 398 – I am trying to think of a PM who seemed less prepared for the actual job than Abbott. I don’t feel adequately qualified to talk about perennial favourite McMahon, but leaving out the “interregnum” ones (Page, Fadden, Forde, McEwen) I am still left with 23 who seemed to have some clue about something. And Abbott had FOUR years as Opposition Leader to prepare for this possibility.
http://primeministers.naa.gov.au/primeministers/
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/12/poll-roundup-one-year-behind.html
Poll Roundup: One Year Behind
Aggregate 53.4 to Labor (+0.4)
Coalition has now trailed on smoothed aggregate for one year
I look at the fates of past governments that trailed for a whole year and also at the fates of those that threw their Treasurer under the bus.
KB
[Coalition has now trailed on smoothed aggregate for one year]
Happy Anniversary!
Yes Lizzie, it’s sounds really jarring to me whenever I read or hear it, but it’s the legacy of being an ex English teacher I suppose.
Rocket Rocket@401
Fadden isn’t a true interregnum case, he was genuinely trying but the crossbench kicked him out very quickly.
KB
[My own experience in poll analysis is that nothing is a more popular story with readers than car-crash ratings of any kind for Tony Abbott]
You’ve clearly been spending too much time on PB ;).
kakuru
[Happy Anniversary!]
Most especially because , as that sensible chap Andrew Robb explained re the Victorian election result, governments are virtually always cactus if they trail consistently for a year or more 🙂
KB
Thanks for your poll roundup.
[Is this right? @MathiasCormann Price signal to discourage visits to GP = GOOD. Price signal to discourage carbon pollution = BAD #auspol]
Bushfire Bill@398
I agree. The longer he stays the more damage he does and the longer it will take to repair.
[The Liberal Party must avoid “lurching to the right” after its election defeat, says Melbourne’s lord mayor, or it risks a decade in opposition.
The former Liberal opposition leader said Victoria was traditionally a centre-left state, and his party needed to understand the nature of the state and the city of Melbourne, by distinguishing the party’s messages from those of its federal counterparts.]
Here is link
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/lord-mayor-robert-doyle-warns-state-liberals-against-a-lurch-to-the-right-or-risk-decade-in-opposition-20141210-123z8t.html
Gecko
I dont think this country can take another 20 months of Abbott at the helm
DisplayName@406
It is the same on Twitter too. A graph of aggregate 2PP at the top of the article vs hits on the article would show a strong correlation.
KB 405 – that’s right. And I wasn’t trying to judge the other 3, I think they had a better grip on what the job entailed.
KB
Do you have a view that the way in which the electorate disseminate information, has made it more likely that we have one term govts?
Todays Daily TellMeCrap at the coffee shop has been annotated by a devoted admirer in blue biro…
The Miranda Devine page had the words “Proper Goose” written above Miranda’s name.
And above the article the words..
“ProperGaner”
😀
Gander, even.
From the Oz:
[Mr Abbott said this morning: “Why should people like Bill Shorten and myself expect to go to the doctor and not pay a cent? Why should we? We earn good money … Why shouldn’t we face a modest $5 co-payment?]
Another example of how out of touch with reality is Abbott. He certainly has enough money (including his dodgy travel expenses) to pay for gold plated medical attention. Does he really know or care what people who are under employed or on minimum wages are able to afford?
Maybe he thinks that everyone is magically the recipient of a $60,000 scholarship for their son or daughter.
citizen
In any case, surely him, Shorten and their respective partners pay a medicare levy proportionate to their income
It probably won’t take long for the AMA to arrange for every doctor’s surgery to carry advertisements against the $5 GP tax.
They’ve done it in the past.
shellbell
Sorry, I woud if I could – I went outside to hang Christmas lights while listening to the cricket but 1. it rained and 2. I got soaked through.
Nice work!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-10/circuses-with-caged-wild-animals-banned-in-victorian-town/5957482
Because… you pay proportionate taxes on your high income that in turn helps provide a universal health care system that treats everybody equally… you freaking imbecile.
Gecko
Abbott knows. But he correctly knows that usually our esteemed msm will not call him out on his bloody lie
Abbott immortalised in the dictionary?
[The PM had succeeded in taking a word familiar to Australian football fans – traditionally describing a confrontation – and making it world famous.
Perhaps not surprisingly, “shirtfront” has been named as Australia’s word of the year by The Australian National Dictionary Centre.
“Look, I’m going to shirtfront Mr Putin … you bet you are, you bet I am,” Mr Abbott said in October.
Amanda Laugesen is director of the centre, which is based at the Australian National University.
“We selected shirtfront because we saw it really dominated the media this year,” she said.]
(ABC)
GPs will probably charge patients more, AMA says
Doctors have reacted angrily to the news, accusing the Government of creating a two-tiered health system.
The Australian Medical Association’s (AMA) Dr Brian Moreton said most GPs would probably charge patients more.
Revised GP co-payment plan hits the right notes
The Abbott Government has taken a step in the right direction with its revised GP co-payment plan and mostly it’s practical and sensible. But it could be better still, writes Terry Barnes.
“Don’t forget that the GP runs a small business – there’s rent to pay, staff costs,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-10/negotiations-over-gp-co-payment-begin/5956342
Vic
The man has the vision of a pea.
CTaR1
A bit silly to base government budgets on land sales.
It leads to all sorts of shonks, of which Light Rail is a case in point.
Exhibition Park and the neddies will have to go somewhere else.
Gecko
Abbott has crystal clear vision when it comes to seeing Uncle Rupe and Auntie Gina
Bw
[of which Light Rail is a case in point.]
Finger X’d Barr doesn’t go through with this.
CC
[The Miranda Devine page had the words “Proper Goose” written above Miranda’s name.
And above the article the words..
“ProperGander”]
Nice pun … 😉 Devine I’d even say. (Piling on)
I’m still cautiously optimistic about the light rail.
[Mr Abbott said this morning: “Why should people like Bill Shorten and myself expect to go to the doctor and not pay a cent? Why should we? We earn good money … Why shouldn’t we face a modest $5 co-payment?]
As soon as Abbott proposes that the copayment be imposed only on those as well off as Bill Shorten, he will have the beginnings of an argument. Until then, this is simply misdirection.
Peta and Julie sort things out:
http://vimeo.com/26926279
sohar
What a laugh!! They are two of my favourite characters. So nasty, you cant look away. 😀
Yes, Victoria – funnier than I remembered.
I see no advantage for Labor in having Abbott replaced.
I’m sick of him, too, but we’ll have to wait two more years to kick him in the b–ls.
I very much doubt that Tony Abbott, Bill Shorten or anyone in anything like their pay grade frequents the “six-minute-medicine”, bulk-billing, corporatised clinics that this policy is aimed at.
My own experience is that the great majority of the bourgeoisie attend non-bulk-billing practices, and are charged something like $80 a throw before Medicare rebate.
Sohar
There are so many classic sketches by these guys. Too funny
On twitter
[Consumer sentiment under the Abbott govt is WORSE than it was under the GFC. Take that in #auspol. Really take that in.]
JBishop says relationship with peta credlin close and professional
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/professional-and-close-julie-bishop-denies-rift-with-peta-credlin-20141210-1247ha.html
So both Credlin and Bishop have denied there is a rift and yet the Oz still go with the story. Who is being mischevious?
441
Keep your friends close, and you enemies closer!
Consumer confidence slump
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/consumer-confidence-slump-should-we-worry-20141210-1249hv.html
Fair and frugal?
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott has promised that any taxpayer-funded advertising campaign to promote his new GP co-payment plan will be “fair” and “frugal”.
Speaking to reporters at the Royal Children’s Hospital in Melbourne on Wednesday, Mr Abbott said he would not rule out an “information campaign” to explain the changes.
“I think it is important given the misinformation which tends to get into the public arena, that correct information be given to the public,” he said.
“So I certainly don’t rule out an information campaign and let’s just see what happens in the future.”]
[Bernard keane Hunt knows his junk RT @David_Speers: Greg Hunt on reports of Bishop-Credlin rift: “it’s junk, absolute junk those reports”. #pmagenda]
I guess embarking on large Government advertising campaigns is at least economic stimulus of some sort.
citizen
[“So I certainly don’t rule out an information campaign and let’s just see what happens in the future.”]
Abbott will spare no expense to save his backside
caf
The only thing Abbott wants to stimulate are his poll numbers
I want Abbott to stay on as long as the bulk of the damage he is doing is to his own reputation and party.
It needs to go on for long enough and be serious enough to make sure nobody ever forgets.