Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

The second poll from Ipsos gives the Coalition relatively respectable readings on voting intention, although Tony Abbott gets another hammering on his personal ratings.

The second federal poll conducted for the Fairfax papers by Ipsos is somewhat less bad than what they’ve been accustomed to recently, while still giving Labor a lead of 52-48 according to preference flows from the 2013 election (up from 51-49 in last month’s poll) and 53-47 on respondent-allocation (steady). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down two), 37% for Labor (steady), 12% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (down one). Ipsos was also about two points below trend on the Coalition primary vote last time, and landed a little high for them in its last poll before the Victorian election.

However, the poll corroborates other recent polling in having Tony Abbott’s personal ratings slumping, with approval down four to 38% and disapproval up eight to 57%. Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 46% and one on disapproval to 41%, and he now leads 47-39 as preferred prime minister after a 41-all result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

914 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. BK – as long as they allow you suitable time to produce the Dawn Patrol updates.

    We’ll picket the gates if they don’t support your main job of the day.

  2. jeffemu
    I work on a casual basis. For instance this afternoon we have a kick-off meeting to start the process to design the manufacturing and distribution processes and factory/facilities for an Adelaide-based company that is going places.

  3. [Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 18m 18 minutes ago
    Bolt Report so popular and influential it’s going to Sky.]

    Is this true or is Mumble just taking the mickey?

  4. confessions

    If i recall correctly, Bolt is shown on Sunday morning and afternoon. Combined audience of approx 200 thousand. Going to Sky would not enhance the figures at all

  5. Coalition failed with its populist “tough on crime” stance.

    [Some commentators argue there is little difference between the policies of the newly elected Labor government in Victoria and its Coalition predecessor. Let’s hope that is not the case in the criminal justice area, because in pursuing tough law and order policies for the past four years the Baillieu/Napthine government spent wildly for little gain.

    New Attorney-General Martin Pakula must reverse the policies of Robert Clark, attorney-general since 2010. Pakula should invest in crime prevention and therapeutic justice policies, which deliver better results for the community at much lower cost than the hard-line policies that Clark devised and executed.

    The Coalition abolished suspended jail sentences, introduced so-called baseline sentencing which requires courts to send people to jail for longer periods, introduced mandatory jail terms for some offences such as serious assaults, and focused unashamedly on increasing the number of people in our prisons.

    The results are clear. In 2010 Victoria’s prison population was about 4500. In 2014 it is about 6300. Between 2012 and 2013 alone, the imprisonment rate in Victoria increased from 112 per 100,000 of population to 120 per 100,000. Expenditure on prisons increased by $200 million, or more than 30 per cent, over the Coalition’s four-year term of office. Prison overcrowding is now chronic, and prisoners have been housed in police cells because of that overcrowding problem.]


  6. Mandy flies in to rescue Joe.


    [Enter Labor and some independents in the Senate. Labor has little if any credibility on these matters. It put us in this position by spending far more than was needed in response to the GFC – and to cap it off nicely, spent it badly. Labor took the Mary Poppins view. Labor don’t want to support budget savings. Nobody likes having to do it. It seems to have escaped the ALP that no one would have to do it if the previous Labor government had lived within its means.]

  7. confessions

    Lately i have ventured over to Sky and watched some of the political shows to get a sense of their perspective on the current state of play. I have no clue as to what the audience numbers are.

  8. [Mandy flies in to rescue Joe.]

    Interestingly, though, that’s the closest I’ve seen a partisan Lib cone to admitting that at least some level of deficit spending in response to the GFC was justified.

    [It put us in this position by spending far more than was needed in response to the GFC – and to cap it off nicely, spent it badly.]

  9. I have tried to add the following comment to Andrew Bolt’s blog entry in the link provided by Victoria @107 above:

    [“Bill Shorten wants to turn University deregulation into an election issue? Good, I’m sure that Messrs Abbott and Pyne will be glad to sell the merit and necessity of these reforms to the voters in the run-up to the next election. In fact it rather makes one wonder why they chose not to do so prior to the last election.”]

    The first sentence is a quote from the end of the blog entry.

    Let’s see if the Telecrap publishes it.

  10. victoria:

    I’d suspect Sky has fewer viewers than FTA, so if it’s true that Bolt’s show is being moved to pay TV that will limit his viewers even more than he had at Ch10.

  11. Morning

    Some sad breaking news

    Stella Young disability campaigner has died at 32.

    A brilliant advocate and made such a difference for good. 🙁

  12. guytaur
    That is a national tragedy. She achieved so much in making our society a better, more inclusive place.

  13. And it is damned shame that Stella Young saw her groundbreaking project, Ramp Up, on ABC Online sacrificed to save a few dollars.

  14. Kohler’s take on the Murray Report makes for interesting reading:


    FWIW, if all the reccos were implemented, it would be good for Australia, for Australians and for less-well off Australians.

    It would not be good for the well-off who are getting a free ride through super subsidies.

    I support the reccomendations.

    The Report places the Coalition, the banks and assorted finance industry spivs under the spotlight, in a difficult situation, and exposed as rent seekers.

  15. [poroti
    Posted Monday, December 8, 2014 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    The BK Dawn Patr9o links were also useful as they marked when we could straighten the furniture, sweep up the glass and wash the blood off the walls of the lounge after the then traditional overnight tooth and nail brawl :)]

    Damn. I went to bed too early, again.

  16. That’s awful news about Stella Young. What a loss.

    She was always so positive and so upbeat.

    A true hero for our times.

  17. Also – is Abbott actually losing it?


    I think it may have been Bushfire Bill who wondered about Abbott’s past boxing and repeated head injuries – I am seriously beginning to wonder whether some of these apparent memory lapses do have an actual basis. He does seem to be getting worse over the last 5 years. Time will tell.

  18. So I see the lying rodent is already dancing on the grave of Whitlam. I was surprised he did not say Whitlam died of shame.

    He always tries to rewrite history. I cannot wait for objective historians to write their assessment of 1996-2007 in 50 years time.

  19. Re the imbecile forgetting Kochie.

    I wish I could forget the image of Kochie jumping into the back of the Ambulance.

    Everytime I see his (Kochie’s)head on TV – I flashback to that image.

  20. I support the reccomendations.

    Yup, Murray – despite early concerns about his big bank pedigree and old-white-man-establishment appearances – seems to have delivered the goods, and congratulations to him and the FSI for doing so.

    What the government does in response will be very interesting.

    They could turn it into the start of a new narrative, or they could try to bury it and put up some token action while not doing anything to upset the big banks. My money is on the latter, but maybe the political opportunity will be too appealing for Joe to let it pass.

  21. Rocket Rocket

    Abbott had very few bouts so not likely. From his time at high school he has had a series of mentors to guide him and open doors for him. Being the boss cocky now means that there is nobody above him to provide a protective “roof” to shield him so now we see him in all his glory.

  22. More job losses before Christmas

    260 jobs go at Coca-Cola Amatil due to poor trading conditions.

    Meanwhile former St Kilda FC president Greg Westaway is in serious trouble over the sudden collapse of his transport company Gregory’s Transport last week. Possible trading whislt insolvent for at least 12 months

    Just more Christmas ‘cheer’ …

  23. RR/BB

    I suggest that BB pinned Abbott several times before he was elected. The story was that Abbott had internalised that he was the golden-haired naughty boy who would always be forgiven his sins. He could always press the reset button.

    In Opposition, Abbott got away with it because his opponents were incompetent, because the MSM were compliant and because what Abbott said and did, did not matter. The people he hurt could not touch him.

    Now it matters what Abbott says and does. He hurts people who can actually do something about being hurt. There is no foregiveness. No penance. No absolution. No Reset Button.

    The personal is mirrored in larger life. Tingle nailed it when she said that the Coalition was in shock because it had believed that the rubbish they were spouting was true.

    It turns out that the GFC was real, that the terms of trade collapse is real, that the slowing economy in China is real, that government revenue decline is not cyclical but structural and that real people in real industries get pissed off when you destroy their lives.

    The Real Thing has caught up with Abbott.

    You can’t reset reality.

    The only question now is how long it takes before he is forced to debarnacle his job.

  24. [I think it may have been Bushfire Bill who wondered about Abbott’s past boxing and repeated head injuries – I am seriously beginning to wonder whether some of these apparent memory lapses do have an actual basis. He does seem to be getting worse over the last 5 years. Time will tell.]

    Forget the boxing injuries … it’s called stress and he’s under plenty of it

  25. I genuinely feel we might have a chance in 2016.

    These consistent polls are diabolical for Abbott.

    As one journalist wrote Shorten is best keeping Abbott there until the election. A circuit breaker in the form of a new PM would hurt the ALP.

    I feel there is enough ill feeling in the community for them to vote with their baseball bats. I feel the unions might get enough fundraising together to give Shorten a warchest to destroy Abbott. It might be a repeat of 2007 and we have a strong union movement for change.

    Personally I have been making a huge effort on the Fairfax comments pages with highlighting how bad the Coalition is for this country. These comments might get lost amongst the hundreds and hundreds from rusted on voters but I truly believe that my comment might be read by a swinging voter who might change their mind when they are presented with facts. One changed vote is better than nothing. I will keep at it. This country should be a progressive country that has room for scientists and different views.

  26. Here’s to Stella Young. She was an awesome voice in Australia – feisty, intelligent and funny. She was head and shoulders above that endless parade of self interested knobheads that infest Australian public discourse.

    My thoughts are with her loved ones right now.

  27. Sachin

    [I cannot wait for objective historians to write their assessment of 1996-2007 in 50 years time]

    Since I will be 94 then, I am prepare to wait

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