A ReachTEL poll conducted for the Sunday Mail and the Seven Network finds Campbell Newman trailing Labor candidate Kate Jones in his seat of Ashgrove by 47.9% to 40.7%, compared with 52.2% to 41.1% in the last such poll on September 28, and 47.5% to 39.1% on July 22. Jones’s lead on two-party preferred is 55-45, unchanged on September. The Sunday Mail’s report offers further details. The automated phone poll of 671 respondents was conducted “late last week”, past form suggesting Thursday evening.
More good news!
ReachTEL were indeed in the field in Ashgrove on Thursday night.
And now of course it’s too late to change seats. It would be such a sign of panic. I am pretty convinced Labor will win Ashgrove, and also up to 20 seats off the Nats to take them down to 53 (well probabaly not 53 becasue they will win back some off their defectors)
Surely there is still time for the dominated 1 house Parliament to redraw the boundaries to ensure a solid 35% TPP vote would still put the LNP across the line?
Don’t you worry about that …
Anastasia doing well.. Giving the impression of being clean (ie free of corruption) and reliable if not the sharpest tool in the shed …
She didn’t have friends or anyone interested in making acquaintances when she took on the job. I am sure that is changing now…
You go girl!
WWP
Surely you don’t mean the parliament redraws the boundaries?
Raaraa @ #6
“Surely you don’t mean the parliament redraws the boundaries?”
This is Qld – the Premier draws the boundaries.
I remember a brilliant cartoon by Leahy from back in the late 80s. Was a two panel graphic. Panel 1 had Joh saying “Here is the election date” and Panel 2 saying “And here is the result”.
Perfect.
DR
Of course the parliament doesn’t redraw the boundaries. The Queensland Electoral Commission has been doing that since 1992.
Qld Labor will have two potent arguments to make: the LNP cannot be trusted on asset sales and public sector jobs; the LNP cannot promise who the premier would be if they win a majority of seats. I think those two arguments alone could be enough for Qld Labor to win government. I don’t buy the argument that the previous LNP win was so massive that it’s impossible for Labor to make up the ground this time. The voters giveth and the voters taketh away. If the LNP can gain 40 seats in an election, they can lose 40 seats in an election. The Bligh Government made the Qld electorate white hot with anger about asset sales, and was electorally savaged. The Newman government has made the same mistake and aroused the same voter fury. It could therefore meet the same fate.
How many voters will vote for a party which has betrayed their trust and cannot even guarantee who the premier would be in the event of an election win? Remember that the Qld LNP recruited an extra-parliamentary leader on the grounds that their parliamentary team was bereft of ability. That was an extraordinary vote of no-confidence in themselves. The talent pool hasn’t expanded since then. Jeff Seeney, Lawrence Springborg, and Tim Nicholls do not enthuse the electorate. Not knowing would the leader would be is a source of chaos and instability, which turn off voters in droves.
Don’t count Qld Labor out. I think that if they keep the focus on the broken promises which have infuriated voters, offer policies which salve the voters’ anger and project calm authority, and fan the flames of the LNP’s leadership chaos, that could be enough to win.
Nicholas – Remember that the Qld LNP recruited an extra-parliamentary leader on the grounds that their parliamentary team was bereft of ability. That was an extraordinary vote of no-confidence in themselves.
That is a powerful argument. I think as it gets closer to the election and it becomes really clear that Newman will lose his seat, even the medai will start asking who will be premier.
I have joked that Newman will return to leading from outside the Parliament even if he loses his seat. But I think the possibility of a “parachute” resignation by someone is not on.
So this whole leadership issue could re-open the old National-Liberal wounds in the weeks leading to the poll, maybe even before the election date is declared.
As the prospect of a re-elected LNP Govt with an unknown premier gains more traction in voters’ minds, which is the most likely response from voters?
voters in Ashgrove hold their noses and re-elect Newman to bring the Ashgrove result into line with the statewide result perceived as more likely than not to occur (because of the huge majority the LNP currently holds)
OR
voters in Ashgrove elect the MP they actually want(Labor’s Kate Jones) while voters across the state reject the LNP in droves because of the uncertainty of the leadership situation and the unpopular broken promises, effectively bringing the statewide result into line with the Ashgrove result
OR
voters re-elect and decapitate the LNP Government at the same time
I fear option 3. Voters say “Ashgrove voters will lance the boil and get rid of Newman”. The biggest problem will be gone, so who will I vote for now?
I don’t fear option 3. I think it would be hilarious.
My uneducated guess is that the new candidate for Moggill has a lot to do with the Option 3 scenario.
14 – if that turns out to be the case, and there is a switch before the election, I would love it if Flegg then ran against Newman. I have a feeling that in that scenario he would win – and in the scenario of an “instant/early” retirement of new member in preparation for a CantDo parachute landing, Flegg could also run and win. that second scenario would actually be better – twice rejected.
15 – My meaning being that Rowan is being eyed by the LNP exec as a candidate for CanDo’s job.
A fresh start and all that, you know. Who else have they got? Seeney, Springborg, JPL?
RR at 10:
[ I have joked that Newman will return to leading from outside the Parliament even if he loses his seat. But I think the possibility of a “parachute” resignation by someone is not on. ]
That wouldn’t even be possible. Before 2012, the LNP only had six seats in Brisbane, and only two before 2009 (Clayfield and Moggill). They’re the only two seats which Newman could realistically switch to; otherwise, there’d be the potential agony and embarrassment of losing to Labor in a by-election. The brand new MP for Moggill won’t be going anywhere, and Tim Nicholls wouldn’t go quietly either. (He’d be in the mix as a possible leader, surely?)
11
You forgot one scenario.
The leadership speculation (and/or some other cause) causes Ashgrove to re-elect Newman and the state to defeat his government.
This would likely lead to a by-election, won by the ALP.
@17: if the parachute option were live, I think you’d also consider seats like Albert and Coomera.
From what I hear from some senior Lib types is that the MP’s in the party wants Newman gone and have gone to some effort to corner him into the “A” for Ashgrove plan.
TM 20 – For the good of the LNP that is probably a smart strategy. They are relying on the majority of people generally being quite happy to see the back of Newman, and they are hoping that he takes some of their “angst” about the Government away and they still win despite a swing against them.
Fancy that – Newman a “martyr” (perhaps in your version a somewhat reluctant one!)
Yes the LNP are all reciting the party line – plan “A” for Ashgrove. Makes you think lost really do want him out.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-refuses-to-discuss-plan-for-if-campbell-newman-loses-ashgrove-20141208-122jcg.html
[the MP’s in the party wants Newman gone]
Which is completely understandable, until you get to the bit about needing to choose a Springborg, Seeney or Nicholls to replace him…