Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

The second poll from Ipsos gives the Coalition relatively respectable readings on voting intention, although Tony Abbott gets another hammering on his personal ratings.

The second federal poll conducted for the Fairfax papers by Ipsos is somewhat less bad than what they’ve been accustomed to recently, while still giving Labor a lead of 52-48 according to preference flows from the 2013 election (up from 51-49 in last month’s poll) and 53-47 on respondent-allocation (steady). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down two), 37% for Labor (steady), 12% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (down one). Ipsos was also about two points below trend on the Coalition primary vote last time, and landed a little high for them in its last poll before the Victorian election.

However, the poll corroborates other recent polling in having Tony Abbott’s personal ratings slumping, with approval down four to 38% and disapproval up eight to 57%. Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 46% and one on disapproval to 41%, and he now leads 47-39 as preferred prime minister after a 41-all result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

914 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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    Well, a few hundred large from Fairfax Media might ease his recovery from the imminent party room dismemberment.

  2. Yeah but they HAVE “technically” gotten rid of the co-payment.

    The ABC will be obliged to report that the co-payment is gone, with any comments from the sidelines about shoving it onto doctors, who will then shove it onto patients being “The Opposition says…”.

    As for the commercials, they’re so into their “Reset” story that they’ll report this as a triumph for Abbott, one which is usre to please the voters.

    The voters (or in their fevered dreams, enough of them to brings the bad polls down a little), being told they already love it – despite their objections and their misgivings over the inner trickery of it all – will decide that, as everybody else is pleased, so should they be.

    That’s the plan anyway.

    Key to this is that the ABC *MUST* report this deadpan as a cancellation of the co-payment. Not only that, but they *MUST* report it cheerfully.

    This is because even the expressions on their faces and the tone of newsreaders’ voices is monitored and given a score by the Lib media hangers-on (I have this from an ABC insider, a senior Current Affairs producer).

  3. Once the ‘Abbott’s a moron’ meme starts to gain momentum in punterland – cf ‘Gillard’s a liar’ – it really will be difficult for Papa Smirk to regain electability.

    It hasn’t happened yet, but it’s happening.

  4. Abbott puts the screws on GP’s, in the same way as he’s put the screws on Universities, the ABC and SBS, the ADF, the public service, the Renewable Energy sector and the States. He’s making a lot of enemies.

  5. Last Newspoll was 54:46. pVO says wow at ltomorrows poll.

    i’d guess 55:45 or 56:44

    Abbottss days are numbered if that proves to be the case.

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