The second federal poll conducted for the Fairfax papers by Ipsos is somewhat less bad than what they’ve been accustomed to recently, while still giving Labor a lead of 52-48 according to preference flows from the 2013 election (up from 51-49 in last month’s poll) and 53-47 on respondent-allocation (steady). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down two), 37% for Labor (steady), 12% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (down one). Ipsos was also about two points below trend on the Coalition primary vote last time, and landed a little high for them in its last poll before the Victorian election.
However, the poll corroborates other recent polling in having Tony Abbott’s personal ratings slumping, with approval down four to 38% and disapproval up eight to 57%. Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 46% and one on disapproval to 41%, and he now leads 47-39 as preferred prime minister after a 41-all result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.
Shorten’s big lead on PPM doesn’t really gel with the below-average TPP.
48-52 should at least rein in the Labor hubris being seen about the traps lately.
More details
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-poll-voters-reject-tony-abbotts-year-of-achievement-20141207-121z2l.html
[New poll: Voters reject Tony Abbott’s ‘year of achievement’
December 8, 2014 – 12:15AM
Mark Kenny
Bill Shorten has leapt ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister and is now regarded by voters as stronger, more trustworthy and more competent, according to the December Fairfax Ipsos poll.
The result is another body-blow to a demoralised Coalition government, which is enduring its toughest period since taking office in September 2013.]
table
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/trust-to-key-to-abbotts-slide-20141207-1221la.html
[Trust to key to Abbott’s slide
December 7, 2014 – 8:01PM
Michael Gordon
The question for Tony Abbott to ponder over the Christmas break is why, if his government has delivered so substantially on its election commitments, it is being rated so harshly by the electorate.]
table
Re-posted from previous thread:
JD
[it is an area, along with internet censorship, he has championed since before entering Parliament.]
Before being elected as a senator, Ludlam was a film maker, artist and graphic designer by trade. Therefore championing issues such as censorship makes sense for a person with his background.
Why the hell would Abbott score better on “Has a clear vision of Australia’s future” ?
cud chewer
[Why the hell would Abbott score better on “Has a clear vision of Australia’s future” ?]
He knows that if he stays in charge Australia’s future is in the toilet?
With his head that far up his butt Abbott must think the view is spectacular.
To be serious though, no doubt Abbott does have a clear view of Australia’s future. It’s just that no one other than his fellow travelers of wealthy, middle aged, anglo saxon men share it.
[Why the hell would Abbott score better on “Has a clear vision of Australia’s future” ?]
Because at this point in the electoral cycle, the LOTO is drowned out.
@5 – well, it doesn’t have to be a positive or negative future. They’re just asking if they think he has a vision… people are still waiting to see what Shorten actually wants to do in Government.
[The question for Tony Abbott to ponder over the Christmas break is why, if his government has delivered so substantially on its election commitments, it is being rated so harshly by the electorate.]
Those he delivered on aren’t that impressive or have turned out to be undesirable, and the stuff he’s doing apart from that is stuff he either said nothing about or denied precisely because it would have cost him most if not all of his election winning margin.
[Why the hell would Abbott score better on “Has a clear vision of Australia’s future” ?]
That doesn’t necessarily mean that his vision is one that is shared by most people only that he has a clear vision. That vision may be an Australian wasteland where the standard of living is cut for everyone except those that support the Liberal party financially.
The ASC might not be able to build a canoe…..probably a good thing thing as this govt wouldn’t be capable of paddling it
And to add to confessions – because Abbott is a ‘statesman’, he must be, the media has told us so repeatedly recently.
Oh, and ‘a strong leader’.
Nearly forgot that.
corporate_misfit – I don’t why the Government wants the ASC to build a conoe, given its expertise is in submarines 😛
Abbott probably doesn’t sip lattes either.
Canoes can be denied as they are on-water matters. Submarines would be under water matters and that would be tricky at a presser.
😉
It’s pretty simple to me as to why Abbott and his govt are in massive trouble.
They lied.
They lied about the GP co payment, the cuts to the ABC, the petrol re indexing, the university and health cuts.
And so on.
And yet our esteemed MSM can’t see the bleeding obvious and scratch their heads as to how the public dislike this govt so much.
It isn’t rocket science.
As the latest legislation allows them to be god of all waters the submarines being underwater matters are no longer an issue
Henry – the media almost doesn’t seem to matter any more. They had about as much influence in the Victorian election as a barnacle on a copper-bottomed ship.
IPSOS also had the greens at 17% two weeks prior to the Vic election.
William or Kevin B
Has there been a first year (or first 14 months) Prime Minister who has trailed the PPM by more than 8 percentage points?
I don’t imagine so Darren, but Kevin’s better placed to answer that one.
Bug, it doesn’t seem that Ipsos’s peculiarity with the Greens in Victoria is a factor in their federal polling. They’ve had them at 12% in both polls, which is right on trend.
[It’s pretty simple to me as to why Abbott and his govt are in massive trouble.
They lied.]
My view as well. Especially having made so much of the issue of trust in opposition. Ironic that Abbott is now in a trust deficit all of his own making.
The Greens are an irrelevancy and waste screen space here. Getting a bit like the Jehovah’s Witnesses who keep knocking on doors piously selling their purity even if no-one is buying.
Shorten versus Abbott (or Bishop or Morrisson) is the real game. Posters should not be distracted by the Little League when the Premiership Season is underway…
Victoria – the primaries in the polls taken before the election:
ReachTEL, Newspoll, Ipsos, ER -random order in each case.
COALition
40/39/42/39
ALP
38/35/40/38
Greens
13/15/12/12
Others
9/9/11/8
See if you can pick Ipsos out of each bunch.
JimmyDoyle
[Henry – the media almost doesn’t seem to matter any more. They had about as much influence in the Victorian election as a barnacle on a copper-bottomed ship.]
While I suspect that their value (negative or positive) to political parties is waning it’s hard to pick this out from the wash. They might well have moved the 2PP back towards Napthine from 54-46 to what they got.
What’s more important is that that ‘headwind’ if it exists, is strong enough to create a hostile upper house or turn a narrow win into a loss. Parties are desperate to control the media cycle, and so whether they can make much of a difference is secondary. If the parties act as if they do, then a share of the public will accept it proving, it seems, that the media is relevant and that parties ignore them at their peril.
True Jimmy but they think they do.
Maybe I should stop watching Insiders.
Some good points Fran.
Fran and Henry – I’m just glad the media’s self-proclaimed expertise – “Oh Labor couldn’t possibly…” – has been severely disrupted, and now have to accept that perhaps they don’t know the Australian people as well as they think they do.
JD @29,
Noone does.
And one of the things that surprises me about PollBludger is how little of the conversation is spent on actually working towards a sound understanding of what makes voters tick.
Well … ‘as well as they insistently assert as part of their corporate branding’ …
To be fair, they would know that, but it’s contrary to their business needs for them to acknowledge that in public.
cc
[a sound understanding of what makes voters tick.]
No one thing.
cud chewer – I’d agree that ‘the voters’ are essentially unknowable. I’d guess that it has something to do with the way the brains of left and right leaning people are fundamentally differently wired. We are essentially incapable of understanding the opposite point of view. Having said that, modern campaign techniques are allowing the parties to make a good effort at understanding at least marginal electorate voters.
I preferred the last poll.
But seriously, both are within the margin of error (2.6% for this poll) of an underlying 54/46.
CC
[And one of the things that surprises me about PollBludger is how little of the conversation is spent on actually working towards a sound understanding of what makes voters tick.]
i doubt that that is knowable with the specificity needed to be actionable. At best, you can make some informed guesses.
We’re all voters, so there’s at least one voter you understand ;).
Steve777 – Kevin Bonham reckons the underlying sentiment would be around 53.5 – just shy of disaster territory for Abbott. I recommend reading his latest poll round up.
I think right leaning people believe in security through strength – winning the game if life (as they see it) through being stronger than the next guy, or by aligning themselves with the strong; while those left-inclined don’t feel safe / secure unless everyone else is.
cud (from previous thread)
[Why the hell would Abbott score ahead on “Has a clear vision of Australia’s future” ?]
He does have a clear vision of Australia’s future. It’s the one on the IPA website, and that is very clear.
The fact that it’s not a good vision doesn’t make it any less clear.
Steve777 – you’re probably correct. At least that’s one way to understand neo-liberalism, and the right’s general contempt towards such dated concepts as ‘government’ and ‘society’. It intrigues me that modern political, economical and philosophical thought is slowly shifting to the left – or at the very least, the data is starting to show that more equality is better for the economy and society.
Usually people are quite free in sharing their own understanding of themselves. If you want to know what makes them tick, just ask them.
The difficulty lies in putting yourself in their shoes.
Steve777 and DN – I should perhaps have said
’empathising’ rather than ‘understanding’ at 33 i.e. “we’re incapable of empathising with the opposite point of view”
Re Corporate_misfit @12: …..probably a good thing thing as this govt wouldn’t be capable of paddling it
Or worse, they might lose the paddle while trying to navigate a well known, highly polluted watercourse.
Whenever I encounter racists, bigots or those who would be harsh to refugees, the disabled, the unemployed, whatever – it reminds me if two quotes:
“There but the grace of God go I…”
“First they came for the jews / communists / Asians ….” – and we know where that ends.
JD
Right, because you have to temporarily throw away your own perspective and adopt theirs. I don’t think it’s impossible to do to some degree, just very difficult. Certainly whatever you do is likely to be a clumsier version of the real thing – you have to spend your time working things out from first principles (theirs) rather than just naturally seeing things as they do.
Abbott has a muddled vision for Australia’s future but through the fog and chaos it doesn’t look like anywhere I’d want to call home.
[“In a reverse of the normal situation in Australian politics where opposition leaders are regarded as temporary unless they perform, more voters believe Mr Shorten’s support within his party has strengthened, rising 8 points since July to be 71 per cent.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-poll-voters-reject-tony-abbotts-year-of-achievement-20141207-121z2l.html
This strikes as being critical to Labor’s success thus far. If the voters can believe that Labor will deliver a stable government, then they will be that much more willing to elect Labor in 2016.
The PM can tweak his PPL all he likes, but Barnett says WA public servants won’t be eligible to partake of it.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/video/watch/25708599/no-parental-pay-for-wa/
William B. and Kevin B. consider Gallaxy to be one of Australia’s best polls. They have consistently supported each other on this assessment.
The dogs are going ape, barking like crazy, warning us of approaching danger and/or imminent death – so out comes the big torch and we see a movement in the bushes next to the house and out waddles … an echidna.
Cool.