The second federal poll conducted for the Fairfax papers by Ipsos is somewhat less bad than what they’ve been accustomed to recently, while still giving Labor a lead of 52-48 according to preference flows from the 2013 election (up from 51-49 in last month’s poll) and 53-47 on respondent-allocation (steady). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down two), 37% for Labor (steady), 12% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (down one). Ipsos was also about two points below trend on the Coalition primary vote last time, and landed a little high for them in its last poll before the Victorian election.
However, the poll corroborates other recent polling in having Tony Abbott’s personal ratings slumping, with approval down four to 38% and disapproval up eight to 57%. Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 46% and one on disapproval to 41%, and he now leads 47-39 as preferred prime minister after a 41-all result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.
Shorten’s zinger fails may actually look kinda stolid as this government falls apart at the seams.
And the fact he cant be rolled easily may just make the difference in voter confidence in the ALP.
The funny thing is: the only real achievement of Rudd mk 2 (the leadershit rules) is the thing that may see the ALP returned to office in 2016.
Which only confirms my feeling that a return to Rudd in 2013 was a good move. Striking distance result,and he stabilised the party.
You can all thank him later when Shorten is PM. A lot of you missed the big game – except me, Bemused and a few others 🙂
lefty e – I think Shorten’s ‘stolid’ (as you put it) nature is a big asset for Labor. He strikes people as a stable, if boring, leader. And after the instability and big personalities of the last five years, Australians may be yearning for that kind of leadership.
Yeah, lefty e,
If we had emoticons, I would use the one with the hand on it.
[Shorten’s zinger fails may actually look kinda stolid as this government falls apart at the seams.
And the fact he cant be rolled easily may just make the difference in voter confidence in the ALP.
The funny thing is: the only real achievement of Rudd mk 2 (the leadershit rules) is the thing that may see the ALP returned to office in 2016.
Which only confirms my feeling that a return to Rudd in 2013 was a good move. Striking distance result,and he stabilised the party.
You can all thank him later when Shorten is PM. A lot of you missed the big game – except me, Bemused and a few others :)]
Puffy is too polite to say it — but jesus, get your hand off it, lefty e!
To say that sort of nonsense is pure unadulterated trolling.
Jesus wept.
I thank Kevin Rudd for the sun rising in the morning.
If it weren’t for Rudd returning in 2013, we’d live in a world of darkness right now!
Wootang!
To be fair, the LNP is so rubbish in government, maybe Shorto wouldve got anyway there with Gillard’s 35 seats. Look at Palasczszuk in QLD.
Still, I feel more comfortable on 55.
[
I thank Kevin Rudd for the sun rising in the morning.
If it weren’t for Rudd returning in 2013, we’d live in a world of darkness right now!]
Amen, brother!
55
Oo, a (at least comparatively) flat-earther!
[Still, I feel more comfortable on 55.]
Nah, we needed at least 56. WHAT A FAILURE!
Darren Laver@21
I haven’t kept any pre-86 data for PPM so there’s only Newspoll. Keating recorded bigger deficits to Hewson when very new in the job, and a single 9-point gap eight months in. Gillard recorded a single 9-point deficit just over 14 months in. If I had the data I’d strongly expect McMahon to rate a mention after less than a year. Those would be all.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/12/fisher-state-by-elections-and-federal.html
Fisher, State By-Elections And Federal Drag
A hopefully definitive attempt to place what seems to have happened in Fisher in historic context.
Aw come on I hardly ever mention the Ruddster these days. But Im feeling saucy.
2016: Bring it.
JD and bemused.
On the last thread youse were both expressing the view that you prefer Labor to the Greens.
Yet JD you certainly seem to share some of what some people might term Green values, and bemused you said yourself that your spin of the political compass placed you right there with the LOONS!!!
You are both members of the ALP. Yet you seem to the left of where the ALP sits.
AS well as trying to change the party from inside, you could put electoral pressure on the ALP by voting Green first preference and ALP second. Except in cases like Prahran you wouldn’t be costing the ALP your vote, but you would be making a political statement about what policies you prefer.
BW You are a proper lefty too, you could employ the same strategy. It doesn’t make you a Green, it makes a difference to the statistics.
I don’t expect any of you to acknowledge this publically now, just remember it as you look at the next house ballot you fill in.
Its not a wasted vote
Its a message to your party about whats important to you.
The preferential system is a tool. You can use it.
Remember you have the power.
[I haven’t kept any pre-86 data for PPM so there’s only Newspoll. Keating recorded bigger deficits to Hewson when very new in the job, and a single 9-point gap eight months in. Gillard recorded a single 9-point deficit just over 14 months in. If I had the data I’d strongly expect McMahon to rate a mention after less than a year. Those would be all.]
Interesting — Keating and Gillard both went on to win elections.
But they had a policy agenda that was broadly supported unlike Abbott.
Are elections decided on policy or personality? 2016 will be interesting.
Carey Moore@55
So that is why the curtains are fading all over the country?
Jules – I’m happy to say publically that I am in the Labor Left, and yes I agree with a lot of Greens policies. The reason I am not a Green was expressed very well by Zoomster in the previous thread:
[“what would be the point of joining a party you agree with 100%? It’s obviously getting along very well without your input.
A party which is imperfect but striving gives you something to work with (and for…)”]
As the main left party of government I feel that it is worthwhile advocating for the policies I believe in within the Labor Party, and while doing that, campaigning for democratic reform of the party.
If I found myself unable to give the Labor candidate my number 1 vote, I’d probably vote Green. As it is, I almost always give the Greens my second preference. I am not anti-Green by any stretch of the imagination.
Darren – the Gillard rating in question was well after she had won the election. In the leadup to the election win she consistently led Abbott by between 13 and 30 points.
My view is that policy is only sometimes the big election determining factor. It certainly was in 1993. It was largely not in 2013 (which was mainly about Labor being in a terrible internal mess) but the Coalition don’t seem to have realised that yet.
[I thank Kevin Rudd for the sun rising in the morning.
If it weren’t for Rudd returning in 2013, we’d live in a world of darkness right now!]
We do live in a world of darkness right now. In some ways the only light is that there is a slim but growing chance this lot of psychos and thieves will be voted out sometime during the year after next, if the country lasts that long and nothing happens to help them out.
[As the main left party of government I feel that it is worthwhile advocating for the policies I believe in within the Labor Party, and while doing that, campaigning for democratic reform of the party.]
That is very commendable, (and I know that can sound patronising but it is.) I don’t feel that attatched to the ALP. I couldn’t see myself being a member, or of the Greens for that matter. Or any political party to be honest. Maybe the sex party, depending on what they turn into, but probably not.
But by the same token, I think voting green 1 alp 2 would help you reform your party. Just joking. I am genuinely messing with BW and bemused tho, cos i think their incessant green bashing is a way of avoiding confronting certain issues about themselves. I think they’re closet Greens who haven’t come to terms with it yet they’re trying to convince themselves not the rest of us.
[And if anyone chooses to question my somewhat over-indulgent pleasure at seeing the bustards squirm while I eat popcorn and sip my chardy, I could ask forgiveness, or just post the middle finger emoticon.]
PtMD It is enjoyable watching them crash and burn, but its kind of really annoying too. I’m laughing but they should never have had the chance to make such massive fools of themselves (and us). BTW do popcorn and chardy go well together?
If you can’t use a middle finger emoticon there’s this, in case you haven’t seen it before:
..!.,
That one is just for demonstration purposes.
If you drink enough chardy, anything tastes good. And popcorn makes you thirsty, so anything tastes good. Perfect symmetry.
thanks I will remember that one, and at least I can read it if someone does it to me.
Jules@63:
Something to ponder. The Labor party rank and file is quite a way to the left of the parliamentary party. And, we fight hard for reform, and we are now having some small successes, which we hope will gain momentum.
Avowed Green voters and Green party members have little love for Labor, and often advocate an informal vote at Federal level, and exhausting preferences without giving Labor a vote in states where this is possible.
Yet, Greens preferences flow 80% to Labor. So Jules, I think that there are quite a few Labor supporters of the Left variety who are adopting your strategy of 1 Greens and 2 Labor, in seats where Labor is not under threat from the Greens.
Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 #auspol http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1
#Banking, #JoHo Fiinancial Services Industry by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1CVqx7A
D&M
The ALP’s position on asylum seekers — i.e. Indefinite mandatory detention — is a decisive for me. I can never give them an effective preference while they have this position.
If they were to repudiate this position and give an accounting of why the position of the last 20 years or so was not ethically tenable I could hold my nose about pretty much anything else they were doing, because I’d no longer be a party to gaoling those not charged with crimes, or brutalising the vulnerable.
Their willingness to take this step would show that they were capable of reform and that the baleful grip of Murdoch on the party’s politics was weakening. One could hope for a day when the ALP decided which policies were right rather, merely, which policies would win the daily news cycle or improve the PM net sats.
It’s a lovely morning. I can hear magpies and other birds calling. One can envision a better day. 🙂
Oops
[is decisive for me]
Indefinite mandatory detention has been the reason for my former ALP friends moving to the Greens and I have to admit I too am disgusted by this policy. But I’m pragmatic and held my nose on this issue and campaigned for Labor to try and avoid an Abbott win. I think highly of Ludlum, Penny Wong,etc….there are some excellent people on the progressive side of politics and this Green vs ALP bashing is so petty and damaging.
In my view, there are two camps…..those who care for the common good versus those who believe in each for their own. Let’s hope the former win again soon.
Morning all. This is actually the coalition’s “best” poll in a month, yet is still pretty bad. Liberal vote is 40% and Abbott’s approval is 38%, so not even all Liberal voters approve of his performance.
Fran, Erasmus
I agree with you on detention. Especially when it involves children. While I often question some Green economic policiies here, I still have preferenced them ahead of Labor in many, if not most recent elections.
The murray inquiry has actually made some recommendations to force Aussie banks to. Shape up? Like the Henry review before it, will it be implemented?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/murray-inquirys-key-recommendations-20141207-121w56.html
Murray wants a super shakeup to increase retirement incomes. Of course, as CEO of the Commonwealth bank he was head of one of the worst of the fee vultures crippling retail super.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-07/financial-system-inquiry-super-could-be-boosted-40pc/5950044
So when he says he wants more competition, he focuses on MySuper, not retail funds that get made default funds by employers. The question is whether he regards the degree of exploitation of super savings as too high or too low? Past attempts to increase competition have not reduced super fees, or improved returns.
Many of Murray’s recommendations would force banks to pay more and save more(!). This item is glaring:
[The FSI took aim at large corporations liquidators and financial institutions recommended they should pay more as their current fees don’t cover the cost of regulation.]
So despite bailing out banks during the GFC, and having regulations that allow them to make billions with many cases of unethical conduct un prosecuted, we do not charge them enough license fees to cover the cost of the “regulation”. Why not? Most government financial fees, e.g. Stamp duties, are cash cows. Why not treat our most profitable industry the same? So much for “user pays”.
Willian@20
Yea i should get over the crazy poll results, but i couldnt resist having a dig at IPSOS as well (already done it for morgan SMS) …
I so wish these pollsters would declare how many people decline to respond, it would give an idea of whether people are “tuned in” or “tuned out” of politics.
It should also be critical in determining the MOE i believe (but im not a statistician).
Without measuring those who refused to answer, these SMS polls arent much better than a NINMSN poll, they arent measuring the lazy majority.
Caught out again! I posted the Dawn Patrol on the old thread.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Well Abbott’s “achievements” haven’t prevented him from finishing the year right on the nose. The headline on the Age home page is “Voters detest Abbott”.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-poll-voters-reject-tony-abbotts-year-of-achievement-20141207-121z2l.html
Tony Abbott is the problem says Peter Hartcher.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/tony-abbott-is-the-problem-with-the-federal-government-poll-20141207-12247a.html
Michael Gordon – Trust is the key to Abbott’s slide.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/trust-to-key-to-tony-abbotts-slide-20141207-1221la.html
View from the Street. Well worth a read.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-our-minister-for-immigration-border-control-and-cartoon-supervillainy-at-it-again-20141207-1222sv.html
Maybe Hockey can regain some ground with this challenge.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/treasurer-joe-hockey-urges-banks-to-cooperate-with-regulators-20141207-121vxt.html
Can Grumpy Joe sell the bad news that’s coming?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/12/5/national-affairs/can-grumpy-joe-sell-bad-news-thats-coming
How’s this for a pasting of Abbott’s PPL backtrack announcement?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-parental-leave-backdown-is-meek-and-messy-20141207-121x4a.html
Is Baird playing with political fire with the proposed sale of poles and wires?
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/electricity-privatisation-could-drive-up-power-prices-and-put-pressure-on-budget-report-finds-20141207-121was.html
Useless scientists! What would they know?
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/solar-energy-world-first-in-australia-20141207-121w8n.html
This article warns everyone about the risks of the Joint Strike Fighter procurement.
http://rt.com/op-edge/212115-lockheed-f-35-marketing-clout/
Section 2 . . .
Australia needs mentally healthy workplaces.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-needs-mentally-healthy-workplaces-20141207-11z2s2.html
Some advice to Abbott – get back to basics.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-budget-strategy-must-be-about-getting-back-to-basics-20141207-120ziz.html
Pyne tells colleagues to hols their tongues but he can’t control Andrew Bolt’s says Katharine Murphy. (I don’t know about you but I find the new layout of the Guardian website quite annoying).
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/07/christopher-pyne-tells-colleagues-to-hold-tongue-but-cant-control-andrew-bolts
What will (or can) the Liberals do with the crop of disastrous poll results?
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-liberal-party-conundrum-abbott-must-stay-and-go,7163
The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/07/the-three-worst-things-the-liberal-did-yesterday-131/
SMH editorial – the government’s faults laid bare.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-budget-strategy-must-be-about-getting-back-to-basics-20141207-120ziz.html
And the government wants to remove payslip advices on the payment of superannuation? Read this and think about it. This guy should be jailed!
http://www.theage.com.au/national/boss-faces-insolvent-trading-probe-after-transport-company-collapse-20141207-1200co.html
The recriminations in the SA Liberal Party get into full swing. First spear is aimed at David Johnston. There will be plenty more.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/senator-david-johnstons-canoe-gaffe-hurt-liberals-chances-at-fisher-by-election/story-fni6uo1m-1227147854865
Section 3 . . .
Matt Golding on how to handle the Shooters Party.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/matt-golding-20090907-fdh2.html
MUST SEE! Pat Campbell goes berserk.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20141123-1t21q.html
Michael Leunig has some fun with the blue ties and the trajectory of the polls.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/michael-leunig-20090711-dgl6.html
Just have a look at this! Baby Abbott has pooped his pants. David Rowe at his best!
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
What’s next in 3D Printing. This 9 minute video gives a good insight of where it’s headed.
http://www.ted.com/talks/avi_reichental_what_s_next_in_3d_printing
FFS Chris Ulhmann is a useless interviewer. Couldn’t ask a decent question to save his life.
There is one place praying for El Nino this year. Would be not so good for us but they get more rain.
[California is suffering its driest spell for 1,200 years and is now 100 per cent in drought
Fifty five percent of California remains in an “exceptional drought” as of Thursday — the most severe classification on the scale used by the U.S. Drought Monitor, and 100 percent of the state remains in at least a moderate drought.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/california-drought-is-the-most-severe-in-at-least-1200-years-9908853.html
Thanks BK. Lots of happy reading for Abbott and co. Even Shanahan would find it hard to put a positive spin on the Federal government at present. Have a good day all.
Morning all
BK
Thanks as always much appreciated:)
Yes, BK your morning links are much appreciated and part of my morning ritual!
I second that motion Adrian.
Some reasonable advice for new Premier Daniel Andrews
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/memo-mr-premier-what-you-should-do-next-20141207-121y95.html
As per article posted
[It would be a gross political miscalculation by Abbott to think public support for East West Link would translate into support for his government withdrawing $3 billion in funds for infrastructure in Victoria. The Victorian construction industry and state economy desperately need the boost and there are other projects that are equally popular and will do more for the city, such as the Melbourne Metro rail project for which the federal funds were originally earmarked.]
The BK Dawn Patr9o links were also useful as they marked when we could straighten the furniture, sweep up the glass and wash the blood off the walls of the lounge after the then traditional overnight tooth and nail brawl 🙂
The Age, in a Monday-is-for leaning-right day has Paul Sheehan in a really vindictive mood. He berates Senators Cameron, Carr and Conroy for actually opposing in Opposition!
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-senates-three-malevolent-monkeys-practise-politics-without-shame-20141207-12205n.html
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorians-embrace-diversity-but-believe-some-ethnic-groups-do-not-fit-in-20141207-11zc2u.html
[New VicHealth research into Victorian attitudes to race and cultural diversity has found that while most of the 1250 people surveyed said they often had positive contact with people from other groups, race-based intolerance remained common.
About two in every five people said there were groups in Australia that did not “fit in”.
The proportion of people with this view has increased almost 20 per cent over the past seven years.]
Given the political discourse around terrorism and ‘border securit’y, there are no surprises about which groups are the target of prejudice, intolerance and negative attitudes: Muslims, people from the Middle East, Africans and refugees.
Another classic cartoon
https://mobile.twitter.com/HydecomLorraine/status/540772980716863488/photo/1
phylactella
Paul Sheehan is a nasty partisan hack