Galaxy: 55-45 to Labor

Another horrible poll for the Abbott government, this time from Galaxy.

Another rough weekend for the conservatives (vid. the Fisher by-election) gets even worse with the latest Galaxy poll for the Sunday News Limited tabloids. This one has Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the last such poll in early October, and 41% (up five) to 38% (down four) on the primary vote. The poll also finds that 41% would prefer Malcolm Turnbull be Treasurer against 21% for Joe Hockey.

Next cab off the rank should be Ipsos in the Fairfax papers this evening.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

588 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Rossmore@550

    Bemused 537

    True enough, but you and the rest of the commuting public will look at a whole variety of other information sources,

    Whether it be the Huff Post, Buzzfeed, sports sites, Facebook, fashion pages ad infinitum. My point was that the influence of the MSM on the voting public is declining. Yes it still has weight and influence, but that influence is no longer the predominant force it was five years ago.

    Actually, quite a lot do read or at least flick through the give away MX in the afternoon/evening.

    I used to glance at it, but found I got through it between 2 stations and no longer bothered. Talk about light weight rubbish!

  2. [victoria
    Posted Sunday, December 7, 2014 at 10:00 pm | PERMALINK

    If i recall correctly, Ipsos had vic election poll at 50/50]

    Yes that’s right Vic and it looks like they’re probably about 2% out in this one too.

  3. Full details
    [New poll: Voters reject Tony Abbott’s ‘year of achievement’
    December 8, 2014 – 12:15AM
    Mark Kenny

    Bill Shorten has leapt ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister and is now regarded by voters as stronger, more trustworthy and more competent, according to the December Fairfax Ipsos poll.

    The result is another body-blow to a demoralised Coalition government, which is enduring its toughest period since taking office in September 2013.


    Nationally Labor’s support jumped by 6.5 per cent in the poll if the two-party-preferred vote is calculated according to the stated preference flows from respondents, with the Labor/Coalition split widening to 53/47 – a virtual reversal of the 2013 election result.]

  4. Ipsos is using last poisonous election results, which are dodgy IMHO

    [Nationally Labor’s support jumped by 6.5 per cent in the poll if the two-party-preferred vote is calculated according to the stated preference flows from respondents, with the Labor/Coalition split widening to 53/47 – a virtual reversal of the 2013 election result. ]

  5. After arguing so valiantly with Libs who took every opportunity to put the boot in during the ALP government, I deserve to enjoy a bit of hubris.

    And if anyone chooses to question my somewhat over-indulgent pleasure at seeing the bustards squirm while I eat popcorn and sip my chardy, I could ask forgiveness, or just post the middle finger emoticon.

  6. fredex – I was not referring to it’s membership, who I don’t doubt are broadly representative of the Australian population, just as the Labor Party I move in is. I’m talking about the issues that people like Scott Ludlam choose to champion. I’m sure data retention is an important issue, but in a country with growing inequality like Australia, it is not at the top of my list. Don’t get me wrong, I like Ludlam, but his priorities are not my priorities.

  7. The last VIC Ipsos poll was 50-50 on 2010 election preferences, 52-48 to ALP on respondant allocated preferences. They went with the latter for their headline, which was just as well as that was close to the state election result.

  8. [5 minutes ago
    You can feel the love for Mr -57% RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Ipsos Poll Abbott: Approve 38 (-4) Disapprove 57 (+8) #auspol]

    maybe this is the “shocker”for the Lying Friar?

    57% disapproval

  9. taylormade @ 556 – You raise a good point – one that demonstrates the need for both internal Labor Party reform and a federal ICAC.

  10. JD
    [I’m talking about the issues that people like Scott Ludlam choose to champion.]
    Ludlam’s portfolios are: Broadband, Communications & the Digital Economy, Defence, Housing & Sustainable Cities, and Nuclear.

    He is talking about the issues falling within his portfolios.

  11. sprocket_@560

    5 minutes ago
    You can feel the love for Mr -57% RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Ipsos Poll Abbott: Approve 38 (-4) Disapprove 57 (+8) #auspol

    maybe this is the “shocker”for the Lying Friar?

    57% disapproval

    Perhaps the “shocker” is that even after the last couple of weeks, 38% of Australians have not yet even begun to realize what a complete imbecile he is?

  12. 52/48 to the ALP. I can live with that going into xmas. 🙂

    So does anyone know if anyone is going to be polling immediately post MYEFO??

  13. JimmyDoyle

    [Fran – The Greens are a party of the upper middle class left who care little for issues of economic justice and fairness. ]

    We are a middle-class party in that the majority of our employed members are employed in the professions, but very few of us would count as being in the upper middle class, at least in most people’s opinions. I’d be surprised if 5% of our members had incomes above $120k ((though there would be many $180k income households).

    Many of us are in the caring professions — docs, health, teaching and you may be assured that economic justice is at the heart of our concerns — so much so that the complaint against us is often made by those to our right that we were more likeable when, a couple of decades or more back, our party had a narrow focus on environmental issues. I never would have joined that party.

    Until 2007 I had sat on the sidelines, admiring the Greens for consistently speaking up on human rights and asylum seekers, as well as, importantly, on climate change, but it wasn’t until, in the middle of a union-bashing counter-attack by Howard over Joe McDonald and Dean Mighell to which Rudd, predictably, responded by declaring them unwelcome in his party, that I was won to the Greens. Watching Bob Brown declare in the middle of all that ‘we stand with the unions’ that I realised I could stand aside no longer. I don’t recall anything else he said that evening but he had shown me something no other party with a chance of being returned to parliament had shown — courage and principle when it stood to count.

    [I understand perfectly well that the Greens are here to stay, but count me hugely sceptical of the claim they’ll become the main party of the left.]

    In a sense, we already are. It’s just that the left is quite small. The ALP, while containing some who regard themselves as ‘on the left’ in some meaningful sense, does not today today self-describe in public as a left of centre organisation. We Greens OTOH are almost universally recognised as far to the left of the ALP, who use this recognition to run as ‘pragmatic’ and ‘moderate’ by contrast with us.

    As a socialist, I see this depiction of us as on the far left as saying more about the right of centre locus of public discourse rather than any particular radicalism on our part. In many respects, my party is probably about where Whitlam was in 1973 — a party of the centre-left, in completion with the parties of the centre-right. It might be that the more left-of-centre supporters of the ALP (or their successors a generation from now), eventually come to us as a more authentic expression of the public policy they want and leave the ALP of the day to slug it out with the LNP on the centre-right.

  14. 558

    Historically, state surveillance often targets those who argue for greater equality. This is not just in overseas dictatorships. ASIO and various state special branches did it as well. If you do not keep the surveillance state under control, it is harder to argue for greater equality.

  15. Jimmy
    Actually I’m more interested in Ipsos at the moment and I don’t know a lot about Ludlum except that he is highly respected for his gender ‘equality’ [not the right word but it’ll have to do] views and policies.
    When I ‘joined’ [I sorta gravitated inwards] the Greens, I expected more of a hippy yuppie environmental mob than I actually encountered. I was surprised at the grass roots, lower class that is, members including worker/unionists types – I have met far more unionists in the Greens than I have in the ALP where, in the industrial branches where I have recently operated, they are conspicuous by their relative absence. There is a history here in SA which explains that going back to the Dunstan era when middle and upper class types [St peter’s lawyers for example] and career pollies moved the ‘old’ unionists out.

    But I’d rather check out Ipsos now, it seems interesting.
    Catch you later perhaps.

  16. Ipsos

    52-48 2PP to ALP

    Primaries: ALP 37, Coalition 40, Greens 12, PUP 2, Other 9
    Abbott: Approve 38, Disapprove 57
    Shorten: Approve 46, Disapprove 41
    PPM: Abbott 39, Shorten 47

    4-6 December
    1401 sample

  17. At this rate Tone will have to drag out Margie, the girls and his mum.
    Btw is he still living in the mens quarters at the Canberra defence facility or is he ensconced in the lodge now.

  18. fredex – Fair enough. It’s not a discussion I’m particularly comfortable with anyway. I’m not a Greens basher like others on here.

    Fran – fair enough. I’m glad that’s your experience with the Greens.

  19. Henry@572

    At this rate Tone will have to drag out Margie, the girls and his mum.
    Btw is he still living in the mens quarters at the Canberra defence facility or is he ensconced in the lodge now.

    Excellent question. I wonder just how long it is since Margie and the kids would admit to cohabiting with him?

  20. JD
    [it is an area, along with internet censorship, he has championed since before entering Parliament.]

    Before being elected as a senator, Ludlam was a film maker, artist and graphic designer by trade. Therefore championing issues such as censorship makes sense for a person with his background.

  21. [Why the hell would Abbott score ahead on “Has a clear vision of Australia’s future”]

    Cos the media tells us so – constantly – he’s a ‘statesman’, didn’t you know?

  22. Darn@397

    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, December 7, 2014 at 4:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Full primaries for the Galaxy: ALP 41 L-NP 38 Green 11 PUP 4 Other 6


    Do you agree with the 55-45 2pp coming from that? looks a bit high to me. More like 54-46. (but as I’ve said before, I’m no psephologist).

    Sorry, missed this. Yes I do agree with it. I get 54.9.

  23. Scott Ludlam talks intelligently about all manner of policy subjects. Metadata retention is one of the many issues he has addressed because it is in his portfolio and it is kind of a big deal, the indiscriminate storing for two years of data which can be used to learn everything there is to know about a person’s health status, finances, relationships and so on. You don’t need the content of the phone calls to assemble the patterns of a person’s life.

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Well Abbott’s “achievements” haven’t prevented him from finishing the year right on the nose. The headline on the Age home page is “Voters detest Abbott”.
    Tony Abbott is the problem says Peter Hartcher.
    Michael Gordon – Trust is the key to Abbott’s slide.
    View from the Street. Well worth a read.
    Maybe Hockey can regain some ground with this challenge.
    Can Grumpy Joe sell the bad news that’s coming?
    How’s this for a pasting of Abbott’s PPL backtrack announcement?
    Is Baird playing with political fire with the proposed sale of poles and wires?
    Useless scientists! What would they know?
    This article warns everyone about the risks of the Joint Strike Fighter procurement.

  25. Section 2 . . .

    Australia needs mentally healthy workplaces.
    Some advice to Abbott – get back to basics.
    Pyne tells colleagues to hols their tongues but he can’t control Andrew Bolt’s says Katharine Murphy. (I don’t know about you but I find the new layout of the Guardian website quite annoying).
    What will (or can) the Liberals do with the crop of disastrous poll results?,7163
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    SMH editorial – the government’s faults laid bare.
    And the government wants to remove payslip advices on the payment of superannuation? Read this and think about it. This guy should be jailed!
    The recriminations in the SA Liberal Party get into full swing. First spear is aimed at David Johnston. There will be plenty more.

  26. Section 3 . . .

    Matt Golding on how to handle the Shooters Party.
    MUST SEE! Pat Campbell goes berserk.
    Michael Leunig has some fun with the blue ties and the trajectory of the polls.
    Just have a look at this! Baby Abbott has pooped his pants. David Rowe at his best!

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