Galaxy: 55-45 to Labor

Another horrible poll for the Abbott government, this time from Galaxy.

Another rough weekend for the conservatives (vid. the Fisher by-election) gets even worse with the latest Galaxy poll for the Sunday News Limited tabloids. This one has Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the last such poll in early October, and 41% (up five) to 38% (down four) on the primary vote. The poll also finds that 41% would prefer Malcolm Turnbull be Treasurer against 21% for Joe Hockey.

Next cab off the rank should be Ipsos in the Fairfax papers this evening.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

588 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. 1578 on the previous thread (this is a reposting)

    The existing scheme has not been scrapped. I suspect that Abbott`s European-style previous income based scheme is being replaced with the means-tested flat payment currently in place, only extended out to 6 months and with super paid.

  2. Where next for the Coalition?

    Who’s for them:
    a) Putting up a fight
    b) Collapsing in a heap
    c) Gaining some self awareness and changing course

    That last option is there for laughs :D.

  3. Wow, when it rains it pours.
    A (very small) part of feels sorry for the federal govt, why a week after Victoria there had to be a state by election in SA.
    Then again I think of Pyne’s ABC petition.

  4. [DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, December 6, 2014 at 10:41 pm | PERMALINK
    Where next for the Coalition?

    Who’s for them:
    a) Putting up a fight
    b) Collapsing in a heap
    c) Gaining some self awareness and changing course]

    d) It’s all Labor’s fault

  5. docantk – 1 – I can’t even remember who first said it but in a fellow “AFL” state it’s lovely to that fairly recent AFL expression

    “Team Australia’s Premiership window has closed”

  6. DN 6 – No – Abbott goes on holiday for a few weeks, and is totally out of sight and nearly out of mind (?turn of phrase)

    Result 1 – Libs recover a bit in first polls of 2015

    Result 2 – Other Libs think “Look how well we do when Tony’s not around” and start thinking about how to make that situation a bit more permanent.

  7. Repost from previous thread:

    If Labor give Rupert anything but a big FU when they are next in office, then they deserve to die a horrible political death and be treated with utter contempt for eternity for being such fools and cowards.

    Best thing they could do to cripple the malignant old turd’s insatiable greed is finish the full FTTP network, and keep it out of private hands. That critical piece of physical and political infrastructure should remain forever an unadulterated public good.

  8. I love how the family depicted in the Tellmecrap article is from Wahroonga.

    I’m sure that readers in the Tellmecrap’s heartland of Mt Druitt and Emu Plains can really relate to them.

    😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

  9. sprocket
    I guess that would be more generally
    d) business as usual – i.e. keep coasting under the delusion that things will magically work out

    Rocket Rocket
    That probably falls under one of the others, though not sure which.

  10. RR – I wouldn’t be surprised if the Coalition numbers don’t really improve over the summer. They’ve been very steady all year.

  11. Another article

    http://www.news.com.au/national/galaxy-poll-voters-just-about-ready-to-ditchnbsptony-abbott-says-poll/story-e6frfkp9-1227147184102
    [Galaxy poll: Voters just about ready to ditch Tony Abbott, says poll
    December 06, 2014 10:33PM
    Samantha Maiden
    Herald Sun

    Tony Abbott risks becoming a one-term prime minister unless he lifts the Government’s fortunes, with Labor opening up a 10-point lead — 55:45 — on a two-party preferred basis.

    After a week of confusion over the $7 GP fee and Mr Abbott admitting the Government had a “ragged’’ week, support has plunged.

    For the first time, Labor leader Bill Shorten has passed the Coalition on the primary vote since the election of the Abbott Government.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/team-abbott-needs-to-have-a-long-break/story-e6frfkp9-1227147103615
    [Team Abbott needs to have a long break]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/senator-nick-xenophon-looking-for-candidates-for-new-party/story-e6frfkp9-1227147178547
    [Senator Nick Xenophon looking for candidates for new party]

  12. JD

    That improvement in Labor’s primary vote backs you up if its not just one poll which the Fisher result seems to corroborate as well.

  13. Government numbers frequently improve over the xmas break and silly season. People tune out and some reasonable percentage of people forget whatever grievance they had recently held while the pollies are out of the limelight.

    I suspect this will happen over the next couple of months as well. It doesn’t change anything – any solace the Libs or Abbott may take from any improvement is illusory because it would rely on continued absence to maintain, and no government is going to win an election by vacating the stage.

  14. jackol 24 – and the funny part is that if that happens, then when people tune in again in late Jan/Feb (coinciding with Abbott being back) – the LIbs tank again and theories of causality are tested!

  15. Jackol – this is no conventional Government though. In “normal” circumstances:

    – 15 year old state Governments don’t win seats off the opposition.
    – Governments are not thrown out after just one term
    – New Governments experience a polling honeymoon. Instead, Labor led the Coalition within three weeks of Abbott being elected.

  16. As per Samantha maiden’s piece. We are being governed by buffoons

    [JOE Hockey and Julie Bishop had a chat at the G20 about some amateur sleuth work that caught the Prime Minister’s supporters red-handed trying to play them off against each other.

    The story is a golden one, underlining the paranoia, dysfunction and lies currently being told at the upper echelons of the Abbott Government.

    It’s also intriguing because Hockey, who replaced Bishop after a rugged and brutal spell in the Treasury portfolio, have not always been the closest of mates. Their shared history is one that would lend itself to paranoia and believing the worst of each other.]

  17. This is actually the result I’ve been waiting for. Up until now the ALP gain in 2PP wasn’t really translating into a really solid PV. Indicating perhaps a little more protest against the government than a rock solid determination to punt them.

    Now for the first time since maybe Rudd Mk1 we have a poll showing a 40+ PV. So long as the Greens are still tracking in double figures it will be almost impossible for the Coalition to win with Labor’s PV in the 40s. It would appear that the voters aren’t parking their votes with the ‘others’ but have made up their mind that Abbott has to go and Shorten will be a good enough vehicle to make that happen.

    A pretty remarkable turn around in 15 months. If other polls start showing a consistent 40+ PV for Labor Abbott will get knifed.

  18. [Jackol
    Posted Saturday, December 6, 2014 at 10:59 pm | PERMALINK
    Government numbers frequently improve over the xmas break and silly season. People tune out and some reasonable percentage of people forget whatever grievance they had recently held while the pollies are out of the limelight.

    I suspect this will happen over the next couple of months as well.]

    I seem to recall it didn’t happen for Julia Gillard. Things just got worse. Why should it be any different for Abbott?

  19. Given the polling in NSW will the Liberals get desperate enough to ask Mike Baird to be Prime Minister?

    Warringah is the Federal seat he would naturally represent.

    Note the desperate enough.

  20. Snap there Leroy

    It looks NewsLtd is softening up the public for Joe to get the heave-ho, and Malcolm to come in and save Rupert’s sorry arse.

  21. guytaur – referring to your comment @ 1586 of the previous main thread – I really like this theory, developed by Tingle, that this Government is basically operating in a state of shock – shock that they don’t have any ‘natural’ economic management skills, shock that the previous Labor Government was right (and better at economic management), shock that their ideology is so universally unpopular, shock that the media is not only not covering their backs, but starting to turn on them, shock that climate change is not an advantage for them – just all round shock.

  22. [ I’m surprised the Turnbull-Hockey gap isn’t wider and that Hockey can even still muster 22% ]

    Labor voters enjoying his good work for Shorten?

  23. Abbott just finishes telling the troops what a great year they have had and out comes a Galaxy poll 55-45 to Labor. The timing couldn’t have been more exquisite.

  24. guytaur – I’m very very glad that the Australian instinct for the fair go is alive and strong, despite this Government’s best efforts.

  25. Good point Jimmy and I think a lot of the credit must go to social media.
    Including the March in March [and later events] mob who got out in the streets on the basis of social media and rallied about 100,000 people so that eventually and reluctantly even the media had to acknowledge the existence of a groundswell against the COALition policies.

  26. [ referring to your comment @ 1586 of the previous main thread – I really like this theory, developed by Tingle, that this Government is basically operating in a state of shock ]

    As a theory is explains a lot of their behavior and assertions to date quite well.

    They really DID have an expectation that just them being in charge again would somehow lift confidence to the point where all would be well, everybody would see everything improve and they would be the incumbent for 3 terms easy.

    Very delusional stuff.

  27. Remember when our elite Canberra journalists ignored Julia’s misogyny speech and it was only when you tube hits reached tens of thousands and rising across the planet that they had to belatedly report on the content?

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