Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

The second poll from Ipsos gives the Coalition relatively respectable readings on voting intention, although Tony Abbott gets another hammering on his personal ratings.

The second federal poll conducted for the Fairfax papers by Ipsos is somewhat less bad than what they’ve been accustomed to recently, while still giving Labor a lead of 52-48 according to preference flows from the 2013 election (up from 51-49 in last month’s poll) and 53-47 on respondent-allocation (steady). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down two), 37% for Labor (steady), 12% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (down one). Ipsos was also about two points below trend on the Coalition primary vote last time, and landed a little high for them in its last poll before the Victorian election.

However, the poll corroborates other recent polling in having Tony Abbott’s personal ratings slumping, with approval down four to 38% and disapproval up eight to 57%. Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 46% and one on disapproval to 41%, and he now leads 47-39 as preferred prime minister after a 41-all result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

914 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. So sad the news on Stella Jules, but with her passing her parents, family and friends must be so proud of her and what she has achieved.

    The public outpouring of messages speaks volumes for what she has achieved in her short life.

    She will be missed. She was a voice that people respected and listened to.

  2. Punches to the head during his university days? I reckon he’s just stupid, arrogant, ignorant and fails the basic human test.

    I really wonder who sat his exams and wrote his assignments at university

  3. The derailing of ICAC by the NSW Court of Appeal on Friday means, in the short term, no reports in January addressing the beneficiaries of electoral funding rorting and maybe no reports pre NSW election in March 2015.

    ICAC are running off to the HC to see what can be done but the term is almost over, the HC does not sit until the end of January and are likely to be heavily booked up.

    As well, the first stage is getting permission to have the case heard at all with the appeal to follow some time later.

  4. Boerwar

    The personal is mirrored in larger life. Tingle nailed it when she said that the Coalition was in shock because it had believed that the rubbish they were spouting was true.

    [It turns out that the GFC was real, that the terms of trade collapse is real, that the slowing economy in China is real, that government revenue decline is not cyclical but structural and that real people in real industries get pissed off when you destroy their lives.

    The Real Thing has caught up with Abbott.]


  5. MTBW

    From your link. “A beautiful set of words” 🙂

    [The Australian Financial Review is reporting two unnamed Liberals have begun canvassing the idea of tapping Mr Abbott on the shoulder should the bad opinion polls not improve.]

  6. [ Jackol
    Posted Monday, December 8, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    I support the reccomendations.

    Yup, Murray – despite early concerns about his big bank pedigree and old-white-man-establishment appearances – seems to have delivered the goods, and congratulations to him and the FSI for doing so.

    What the government does in response will be very interesting.

    They could turn it into the start of a new narrative, or they could try to bury it and put up some token action while not doing anything to upset the big banks. My money is on the latter, but maybe the political opportunity will be too appealing for Joe to let it pass. ]

    Apparently – he has said he would open the report to consultation – which may well amount to nothing.

    Does he upset big donors like the Bank’s or do nothing or just token stuff at the margins and again be seen as failing to bring in reforms.

    Rob Burgess reckons turnbull should do the selling of the reforms but probably won’t get the gig.

    Kohler –

    [ {The Report}…is an absolute shocker for the government and the banks it’s been trying to please. If accepted it would undermine both of their two pillars of profitability: property lending and superannuation.

    …Four years later, after the Abbott Government has spent 12 months battling to roll back the financial advice reforms at the behest of the banks, the granddaughter of Campbell has pulled the rug from under all of them.

    …The Labor government’s FoFA reforms were an attempt to address this, and the Coalition’s efforts to roll them back have aimed, fundamentally, at going back to a reliance on disclosure only — removing “red tape”, as they put it.

    The Murray Report supports FoFA but wants to go even further, recommending a large number of extra regulations including greater powers for ASIC to intervene on product design and distribution, moves to better align the interests of firms and consumers, increase the competency of advisers…

    …In addition the report suggests that the superannuation tax subsidies for high income earners, on which much of the profitability of super funds and wealth managers is based, are unjustified and should be wound back.

    And finally the report says superannuation fees in Australia are too high and it wants them reduced — directly contradicting the industry’s assertions.

    Overall David Murray and the panel have put consumers and competition front and centre in their proposals for big changes to the financial system.

    The banks will fight hard against Murray, but the momentum for change is beginning to look unstoppable and the banks and the government are looking isolated.]

    Gottliebsen reckons –

    [ Murray wants to stop self-managed funds from borrowing to buy dwellings. Treasurer Joe Hockey should seek Bill Shorten’s permission to do this immediately. If Hockey is asleep, then we will see an avalanche of these deals in the next six months — it’s like announcing that excise on liquor will be increased in six months. Everyone will jump in. Again, Hockey needs Bill Shorten’s approval but I would be surprised if Shorten stood in the way.

    In the case of housing the biggest forces boosting the market (apart from low interest rates) are Chinese buying and negative gearing. Negative gearing wills the subject of a tax inquiry. It is likely that the ability to negative gear will be curbed. ]

    Stephen Bartholomeusz reckons “with nothing absolutely broken, there was nothing of substance to fix.”

  7. poroti

    There is no interest like self interest and if the polls keep saying what they are there will be more than two Liberals involved.

  8. [The Australian Financial Review is reporting two unnamed Liberals have begun canvassing the idea of tapping Mr Abbott on the shoulder should the bad opinion polls not improve]

    Dont forget the men in white coats option.

    Could get the Libs out of a bind “Tony’s not…feeling well”

  9. The 3aw news and talkback this morning focussed on Bill Shorten being more trustworthy than Abbott in the wake of the Ipsos poll. They also emphasized his clear lead over Abbott as PPM.

    Amanda Vanstone was interviewed by Nick McCallum and while generally going in to bat for Abbott and the Government made one interesting comment. When asked if Abbott was likely to go if the polls remain bad for another year she replied that she couldn’t make a judgement on that because she is not part of the cabinet. Hardly a ringing endorsement.

    An elderly lady rang in after that and said she was a Labor voter and didn’t like Abbott. She also said most of her friends vote Liberal but they don’t like him either.

  10. shellbell

    [ I cannot wait for objective historians to write their assessment of 1996-2007 in 50 years time

    Since I will be 94 then, I am prepare to wait]

    I’ll also be 94. But I don’t think it will take 50 years for objective historians to determine that Abbott was a lousy PM who took Australia backwards.

  11. [159


    From your link. “A beautiful set of words” 🙂

    The Australian Financial Review is reporting two unnamed Liberals have begun canvassing the idea of tapping Mr Abbott on the shoulder should the bad opinion polls not improve.]

    Since the polls will likely only get worse for Abbott, this portends pressure for a spill early in 2015.

  12. Abbott will not go quietly. If anyone taps him on the shoulder he just might deck them. Ask Joe Hockey about that.

  13. AA

    On the question who did Tone’s university course work? if the truth be known his degree program would have been pretty basic, Tone has an economics degree and from my experience finance related degrees have very few individual assignments, they generally focus on group work and the exams tend to be more about how well you can repeat the slides and textbook than any real test of intellectual ability.

    I’ve seen high performers score really low and I’ve seen dud performers who scored really well.

    University is in need of serious reform.

  14. Kakuru @ 164

    Well you will have to relay the info to me and yell in whatever good ear I have left.

    I will be 109.

    Just shake me first before you start yelling just to see if I am still alive.

  15. I hearby do solemnly declare that I am an Abbott supporter.

    I know that this represents a shift from five years of calling him a sociopathic rotten apple.

    My fond hope is that the Liberals stick to him like blowflies stick to rotten meat and that he takes the whole sorry lot of vile, people-hating, society-hating, nature-hating bunch of self-serving rogues and thieves down with him.

  16. Puff

    I am sure that Abbott wouldn’t go quietly but if this polling persists and I think it will he may have no choice.

    Too many political careerists will not sacrifice themselves for Abbott to remain.

  17. I think looking for some organic boxing-related injury is going to far.

    He’s just not up to the job. We’ve had bad PMs by various measures/assessments but Abbott is the first since Holt to just be not capable of handling the transition to PM.

  18. …two unnamed Liberals…

    Would that be Morrison and Morrison?

    Or Bishop and Bishop?

    Or, McDonald and Stone, neither of whom owe Abbott anything other than a satisfying kick in the arse.

    The fear. The loathing. The hatred. The love.

  19. Basically the Liberals are weeping what they sowed and as that first budget was such a stinker and the second one more than likely wont be any better and now we have increasing calls for real tax reform for Super and NG then this government is nearly terminal.

    Basically the only thing with can save this government is the ALP.

  20. [120

    Some sad breaking news

    Stella Young disability campaigner has died at 32.

    A brilliant advocate and made such a difference for good. 🙁 ]

    🙁 🙁 🙁

    It is an overworked cliché, but she was genuinely inspirational, and made a difference.

  21. [Just shake me first before you start yelling just to see if I am still alive.]

    Will do jeffemu. I might tap you with my walking frame, just to make sure. 😉

  22. re Abbott and head injuries.

    He also played contact sport – rugby union, and was a front rower or a prop or something with a love for rough scrums according to Pete FitzSimons. I dunno its a weird game. And that reminds me does anyone know who said:

    [A bomb under the west car park at Twickenham on an international day would end fascism in England for a generation.]

  23. If reports are correct one of the revisions of the PPl will be to means-test it.

    It has always been absurd that the Coalition had any policy on its books that was not means-tested.

    This is an excellent principle and should be applied to all government transfers to individuals, organisations, sectors and companies.

  24. I saw the first couple of paragraphs on the front page of the Australian re the Murray enquiry.
    No mention of the banks at all, the focus, framing of the article was about industry super – cutting back union representatives, changes to mysuper (to increase competition) etc.

  25. [As one journalist wrote Shorten is best keeping Abbott there until the election. A circuit breaker in the form of a new PM would hurt the ALP.]

    Torn between two loyalties here.

    1. I’d like to see Abbott stay because he’s so good for Labor.


    2. The longer he stays the worse business conditions and consumer uncertainty will get (and my business is sensitive to both – the last 3 months in Australia have been very slow. Export sales have at least been stable, hopefully to improve with the dollar drop).

  26. [Basically the only thing with can save this government is the ALP.]

    How long until we hear Barrie Cassidy say that “Bill Shorten is the real Prime Minister of Australia”?

  27. Re. Business confidence… my little manufacturing set-up is by no means alone.

    The retail industry is in a funk, consumers are sitting on their cash, manufacturing is downsizing, investment in new and hi-tech industries is plummeting with the government’s anti-science attitude.

    Another two years of this and Australia will be a real basket case, economically.

    Abbott is effectively holding Australia to ransom. They still saying, “Do it our way or we’ll wreck the joint.”

  28. Re the PPL, I don’t think it will be means tested, one of they key things the Libs want to do for their base is to subsidize nannies.
    I am expecting to see some provision for this in the child care changes. If means tested to any extent it would limit this.

  29. “””I really wonder who sat his exams and wrote his assignments at university”””

    Someone who he threatened to punch the living daylights out of!.

  30. boomy1 – was it? I’ve heard it was someone else. But I can’t think of the name. I should look it up.

    Phil Toynbee? Don’t really know him. i wouldn’t say every union player i’ve met is a fascist, but I have one mate from a country town who played first grade union and from the way he describes the culture, especially in Sydney, its pretty full on.

  31. People seem keen to ascribe abbotts behavior to head injuries from boxing and rugby.

    As I understand it his boxing career was brief and as for rugby it’s not like he was being crunched by springbok forwards week in week out for years.

    Personally I hope he is in the best of health. Illness will just give the tories an excuse for how bad a prime minister he is.

    I reckon he is just a boofhead and a bully, and as somebody suggested earlier, much of his behaviour can be attributed to the pressure he is under. He wouldnt be the first buly to develop some twitches when the heat is turned up.

  32. I’m a bit conflicted about the murmurings about Lib leadership and internal tensions. The media will not let this go – how long before we get the “If they’re going to do it, they need to do it by ‘X’ date” and “it’s on – challenge to occur on ‘Y’ date” articles? I hated this during the Gillard era, and think a large part of it is a crock – it must be easy for journos to find a dumb backbencher from a faction, get them a bit pissed, and the report their rantings as ‘fact’. Canberra is such a small country town and much of what passes as political reporting is gossip.

    My conflict is this – I love to see the LNP in disarray because of abbott and hockey’s ineptitude, but think destabilisation campaigns by bored media gossips are not good for our democracy.

    The libs would be probably foolish to dump abbott – the internal tensions in the party would rip it to shreds. Their only viable option would be a Bishop-Turnbull ticket and the far right loons in the party and murdoch media will not take kindly to that. I think Hockey has realised he’s never going to get to be PM, and he blames both turnbull and abbott for that – expect him to be particularly nasty if he gets dumped as treasurer. abbott dumped as PM would need to be persuaded to resign from politics immediately (the assault charges he’d probably have a a result might help :)). Pyne, Morrison and Hunt all believe they are PM material, and will not want the 6-9 years in opposition coming their way – expect them to white ant if they think they can swing some numbers, but probably can’t. fun and games.

    I expect the Australian and other murdoch tabloids will again try to claim albo or plibersek are trying to destabilise shorten, or get really dirty soon.

  33. Just as they blamed the sales pitch not the product, the Liberals are now blaming the leader not the government.

    Abbott isn’t the problem, he’s the symptom.

    If Abbott were removed, and a new leader were put in place, the new leader would have to dismantle almost everything the government has done up until now.

    I find it a little unbelievable that the whole of the Liberal party, every single candidate and every Minister, fundamentally disagrees with every item on their agenda.

    And, of course, if they do do a wholesale repudiation of everything they’ve stood for up until now, then their credibility is shot – not just the party’s, or the government’s, but every single individual involved who didn’t speak out (either publically or privately) against the government’s agenda.

    If Julie Bishop, for example, had been as vocal in government in opposing foreign aid cuts as she was in Opposition, she’d have a lot more credibility.

    The Liberals cannot accept that the economy didn’t automatically improve just because they were sitting on the government benches. They can’t understand (this has been stated several times) why they’re polling so badly.

    They’re looking around for someone or something to blame – teh evil unions, Bill Shorten, the Senate, social media, the sales job, the leader — rather than questioning whether or not what they want to do is simply unacceptable to the Australian public.

    Until (and if) they can recognise that people simply don’t like what they’re doing, and that they need to do a fundamental rethink about their policy approaches, they can change leaders and Treasurers and shuffle front benches as often as they like, and it won’t make a scrap of difference.

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