BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

Another incremental move to Labor on the poll aggregate this week, though not enough to change the overall seat projection.

ReachTEL livened up the Newspoll off-week with a federal poll conducted last Thursday, putting extra ballast into this week’s BludgerTrack update along with the reliable weekly Essential Research result. However, the results have made next to no difference, with two-party preferred ticking 0.2% to Labor and the total seat projection unchanged. ReachTEL in particular provides substantial new data for the state breakdowns, which have accordingly shifted to the extent of Labor gaining seats in New South Wales and Queensland and losing them in South Australia and Tasmania. Nothing new this week on personal ratings. Next week should be a big one, with the debut federal Fairfax-Ipsos poll in the pipeline, together I presume with the fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and weekly Essential Research.

Note new posts below on New South Wales and Victorian state polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,403 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor”

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  1. [It could very well have been a person personally connected to Nova peris who made these emails available to the media]

    Being a victim of email hacking still hasn’t been ruled out.

  2. 85
    daretotread

    The histograms are interesting to look at. The incidence of new infections is falling, though the additions to earlier case numbers mean the epidemic was growing far more quickly than earlier estimated and published

    What it also shows is that interventions work – infection rates decline, the death rate also falls. This argues for more intervention and less panic!

  8. Either Nova or Ato made a comment yesterday indicating the emails were private, ie not work-related.

    I assumed this meant they came from a private email addy, not from a work addy.

    It’s also possible it’s been leaked from Ato’s end, not Nova’s, although if this was the case then you’d think it would have been leaked to an overseas news organisation first.

    Either way, if it is true they were private email addies then the question of how they were obtained (and who took it to the papers and why)becomes apposite.

  9. Margaret Cunneen has been taken off the ICAC hearings in Sydney for having done some work for her son to get him off a charge.

    Gawd is there anyone much we can trust in NSW.

  10. Palmer has just given the heavily biased right-wing media a chance to poor s… on Bernie Fraser before the next election. Thanks Clive.

  12. Margaret Cunneen headed the recent inquiry into sexual abuse in the Hunter.

    [NSW public official – allegations concerning corrupt conduct (Operation Hale)
    The ICAC is investigating allegations that on 31 May 2014 Deputy Senior Crown Prosecutor, Margaret Cunneen SC and Stephen Wyllie, with the intention to pervert the course of justice, counselled Sophia Tilley to pretend to have chest pains, and that Sophia Tilley, with the intention to pervert the course of justice, did pretend to have chest pains, to prevent investigating police officers from obtaining evidence of Ms Tilley’s blood alcohol level at the scene of a motor vehicle accident.]

  13. Chinda63

    This appears to be a very grubby situation. I just get the feeling that there is a personal component to this occurring, rather than a straight out political witchhunt

  14. shellbell

    Can i ask you a question re an old matter pertaining to the High Court decision back in 97 re David lange former NZ pm and the ABC, which related to defamation?

  19. shellbell

    Thanks. In light of the judgment made back then (which still confuses me). What chance would Nova peris have to sue News Corp for defamation?

  20. Chinda

    I don’t think it matters if the emails were private or from a work address. You still can’t access someone’s work emails and distribute them unless you are the employer and only then under strict conditions.

    The only difference is you can get done by your boss for misuse of their equipment if it’s from a work address.

  23. A reality check for the Exploding HoJo. How oppressed by red tape are our nation’s hard done by business peeps ? A regular ranking of countries by “ease of doing business” has Australia ranked in the top ten easiest countries in the world !! Better than Germany , Ireland and Taiwan. Heck on 80.68 we were not far behind even the US of A (81.98)The main part of rankings involve levels of red tape and bureaucracy. So I guess Joe gets a FAIL !
    For those with lots of time the pdf of the report.

    http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB15-Full-Report.pdf

  24. WWP

    [Well you have to say that but it is clearly untrue and quite ridiculous.]

    Locking in a failed model clearly is worse than nothing. To this day people cite the failure of the early EU ETS as proof that such schemes cannot work.

  25. [It really was worse than nothing at all. Had we supported it, we’d have locked in a scheme that was a polluters’ pay day and depended on the success of CC&S. There would have been no emissions reductions. Also, there was no provision for review of the unwarranted free permit regime]

    Seconded. Im sorry – but nothing at all was clearly better than the CPRS.

    This remains the position of any well informed GRN supporter – and they were all vindicated as well when the far supperior CO2 price policy became law.

    That it no longer exists is our problem now.

  26. Shellbell

    Yes. From my understanding News corp has a freedom of communication between the people relating to political or govt matters, so as to give the electors information to make an informed choice, as long as that is not done for the purpose of being malicious.
    From what i have observed of the Nova peris matter so far, it appears to be malicious rather than informing. What say you?

  27. Shorten was asked about nova peris and whether the story was grubby. Shorten said wtte that the public can make up their own mind about that

  28. [ Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, October 30, 2014 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Lovely, upbeat headline from front page of the printed version of the Daily Telegraph:

    ROT IN HELL

    ]

    No doubt those hacked etc by newscorpse {and lots of others} will feel the same way when murdoch falls off his perch.

    His minions will squeal though when its thrown back at them.

    [ @Charles_HRH: One cannot believe people are comparing Rupert Murdoch to Satan. Yes, he’s evil, but he’s not as bad as Rupert Murdoch. #leveson ]

  29. Vic

    I think you are right but how wide the freedom operates has not been tested.

    There is some suggestion that Mike Kelly might test it in his defence of Mark Textor’s defo case about an assertion that Textor engaged in push polling but that case appears dormant.

  33. Shellbell

    Thanks. There is no suggestion that Nova peris would sue for defamation. I am merely curious as to what the outcome would most likely be if she did decide to go down that path

  34. On an ETS

    Mr Hunt as late as today outlined again their position. No ETS. This would apply if it was Mr Rudd’s version or the Progressive Coalition one.

    The only question is would Turnbull have been rolled. Given the determination we have seen from Team Abbott I am sure it would have happened anyway.

    So blaming anyone for an genuinely for an ETS for Abbott axing it is to not recognise the skill and determination of the fossil fuel backers in this country. They have the party they bought and paid for which I say in light of the revelations we have seen from ICAC.

    Mr Rudd was for a flawed plan it is true and the locking in part was the objection of the Greens. However of course legislation can be changed and amended so I am so sure about that argument.

    What I do know is that the Greens had no choice really as they were not included in those negotiations. Just as Mr Rudd had no choice but to go to the Liberals because going with the Greens was not enough numerically to succeed.

  36. [Locking in a failed model]

    I don’t except it was a failed model and as far as I can remember and research that was not a criticism if it at the time – the criticism was that it didn’t go far enough in target and and went too far in support – however some of the more intelligent environmental groups did support it after the changes announced in May 2009.

    But even if I did accept that it was a failed model your argument starts with and is hinged on the whole of the scheme being ‘locked in’ which of course it wouldn’t have been either politically or legally. Like the biblical view of a house built on sand an argument built on a lie can only fall.

  38. Regarding “Direct Action”, first of all, I cannot believe the hypocrisy of this regime. They scrapped a carbon price mechanism, that ensured that the polluters paid for their pollution, for a scheme that gives them our (tax-payers) money if they promise to maybe reduce pollution. And all this during a “budget emergency”, from a regime that crows about how great they are at economic (mis)management.
    Just how stupid do these people think we are ?
    Secondly, despite their insistence that they will never countenance an ETS, just watch what happens when sanctions start getting applied to Australian exports because we don’t have an ETS, Abbott will be dragged kicking and screaming into implementing an ETS

  39. [So blaming anyone for an genuinely for an ETS for Abbott axing it is to not recognise the skill and determination of the fossil fuel backers in this country. They have the party they bought and paid for which I say in light of the revelations we have seen from ICAC.
    ]

    My point is that without the greens support the fossil fuel backers would have failed. The greens opposition to the CPRS was a key plank in their victory.

  40. YB,

    The lack of an ETS may end up being an anti-tariff issue in all those Free Trade agreements we’ve been busily committing to in recent years.

  41. guytaur@134

    On an ETS

    Mr Hunt as late as today outlined again their position. No ETS. This would apply if it was Mr Rudd’s version or the Progressive Coalition one.

    and how long will they hold that position for when our exports start attracting tariffs because of this regimes pig-headed determination not to join the rest of world and take meaningful action to address AGW ?

  42. WWp

    [But even if I did accept that it was a failed model your argument starts with and is hinged on the whole of the scheme being ‘locked in’ which of course it wouldn’t have been either politically or legally.]

    On that basis, why introduce one at all?

  44. WWP

    My point is that when the LNP became government again they would be doing exactly the same as now.

    The fossil fuel mob did not get so strong in the LNP by accident.

  46. [My point is that when the LNP became government again they would be doing exactly the same as now.
    The fossil fuel mob did not get so strong in the LNP by accident.]

    Depends entirely on how long the scheme was in existence for – the longer it operates the harder it is to get rid of.

  48. WWP

    You dont understand the Abbott ideology it could have been in 50 years and he would still be getting rid of it.

    We are talking about people that ignore science and fact

  49. [You dont understand the Abbott ideology it could have been in 50 years and he would still be getting rid of it.
    ]

    You may be right but IMHO it only needed to get past its second birthday

  50. WWP

    The second birthday argument is about locking in compensation to force Abbott to accept an ETS as a fait accompli. Given the exxtravagant waste that is Direct Action just so Abbott has a political fig leaf I do not think that would have worked.

    At the time i would have agreed with you. Its only with hindsight that determination has become fully clear. Its the same feeling I got when Howard brought in Workchoices.

    Same ignoring of facts and what the community and experts were telling them. Ideology before anything else.

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