Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September

Newspoll has given us its regularly quarterly insight into how its last three months of polling have broken down according to state, gender and age group.

The Australian has published its regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by (mainland) state, gender and age group, from its combined polling over the period of July to September. With this big infusion of state-level data, later this week I will publish the BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown, featuring state-level primary vote numbers and polling trend charts (you can see the previous effort from the end of June here). Also later today should be the regularly weekly Essential Research poll.

In case you missed it, yesterday’s Roy Morgan gave the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was down from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the 2013 election. The Greens were steady at 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research – Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 4%, two-party 52-48 to Labor. A suite of questions on major government decisions over the past year turn in predictable responses, with turning back the boats, freezing foreign aid and dumping the carbon tax strongly approved of, and pretty much anything involving the budget disapproved of. The only neutral responses were for military aid to Iraq and dumping the mining tax. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated the economy well managed, against 28% for poorly. Respondents were most concerned about cost of living issues, and least concerned about national debt and the budget deficit. Other questions find an even balance between those who think income tax too high (42%) and about right (40%); more favouring less services and lower taxes (28%) than the opposite (19%), but with 35% preferring the current balance; and 59% thinking it would be good for the economy if corporations paid more tax, versus 17% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

768 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September”

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  1. [lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, October 8, 2014 at 11:15 am | PERMALINK
    Barry Tucker ‏@btckr 6 minutes ago
    Abbott is spinning a pack of Debt & Deficit lies in a presser. Will be interesting to see how MSM handles it.]

    Abbott knows full well that the budget is going to come under even greater strain in the future, leading to bigger deficits and growing debt. On top of their failure in the Senate to pass draconian measures affecting the less well off, there is Abbott’s $500m p.a. war in Iraq and Hockey’s admission yesterday that falling minerals prices will mean less revenue.

    Abbott is still pushing his unrealistic PPL scheme, the Australian economy is tanking, unemployment remains high, business and consumer confidence are weak, and so on.

    It’s a wonder Abbott has even mentioned the budget, unless he thinks he can squeeze out some political advantage by blaming Labor for what is happening.

  2. bemused@539

    514
    Player One
    Posted Wednesday, October 8, 2014 at 9:29 am | PERMALINK
    Some interesting perspective from David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

    I hope bemused sees that one. It would make him apoplectic


    What a complete dimwit you are!

    ShowsOn nailed you correctly last night.

    I knew you wouldn’t see the funny side. Self-awareness is really not your strong point, is it?

  4. BK@553

    Steve777
    “Ordinance Deilvery”! That takes the cake They obviously think we are gullible fools.

    Hate to say it, but the current polling seems to indicate they may be correct!

  8. Why does the pretty young blonde girl that does the finance report (live now) on ABC News 24 have to wear Brains from Thunderbirds oversized glasses.

  10. It seems that a good way to get a government grant in Victoria is to have a connection with the Premier or one of his ministers.

    [Victoria’s Aviation Minister has defended the decision to hand a million-dollar grant to a private aero club where he stores his own plane.

    Gordon Rich-Phillips said he had been a member of the Peninsula Aero Club in Tyabb for a year, and used the club’s hangar to store his F33A single engine aircraft, otherwise known as the Beechcraft Bonanza.

    He said he was approached by fellow members about applying for a government grant, but was not involved in the decision to approve funding for the club.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-08/minister-defends-million-dollar-grant-to-aero-club/5797840

  11. Don’t get me wrong CTari, I am a glasses loving man “meself”.

    But gee that girl wears some big glasses on such a pretty and small face.

    To me and my opinion only…. they look like those ones you used to get out of the old Show Bags.

  13. Player One@552

    bemused@539


    What a complete dimwit you are!

    ShowsOn nailed you correctly last night.


    I knew you wouldn’t see the funny side. Self-awareness is really not your strong point, is it?

    Or maybe humour isn’t yours.

    OTOH, ShowsOn’s response to you last night was hilarious.

  14. bemused@563

    Player One@552

    bemused@539


    What a complete dimwit you are!

    ShowsOn nailed you correctly last night.


    I knew you wouldn’t see the funny side. Self-awareness is really not your strong point, is it?


    Or maybe humour isn’t yours.

    OTOH, ShowsOn’s response to you last night was hilarious.

    The fact that you find anything ShowsOn posts funny tells us all we need to know about your sense of humour.

  15. The budget isn’t fixed & the “war” is momentary distraction. I can see the LNP heading down the polls again early next year.

  17. Oh dear! Abbott’s best friend (Abe) is talking to his worst enemy (Putin). They even exchanged birthday greetings.

    [Abe, Putin Agree to Summit Even as Sanctions Hurt Ties

    The leaders of Japan and Russia agreed to meet at an international gathering in November, even after diplomatic relations cooled last month when Japan imposed sanctions over the infiltration of Russian troops into Ukraine.

    Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed in a phone call yesterday with President Vladimir Putin to hold a summit at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Beijing next month, according to a Japanese Foreign Ministry statement.

    The conversation on the occasion of Putin’s 62nd birthday was the first between the two leaders since a call on Abe’s birthday last month. The Kremlin press service said that Putin had a birthday talk with Abe, without mentioning the meeting.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/abe-putin-agree-to-summit-even-as-sanctions-hurt-ties.html

  18. mikehilliard@565

    The budget isn’t fixed & the “war” is momentary distraction. I can see the LNP heading down the polls again early next year.

    Yes, I agree this will happen. I was just hoping it would happen sooner so that Abbott would be spiked by his own side as quickly as possible. Abbott is so stupid that he’s positively dangerous for Australia.

  20. PMJG liberated a lot of people from putting up with sh!te. Now it is time to apply the same philosophy to Abbott as she did to Rudd.
    🙂

  23. Player One

    [I was just hoping it would happen sooner]

    Remember, it was quite common to see the idiom ‘slowly, slowly catchy monkey’ posted up here. Let’s see & hope Labor have it in them to bring Abbott down when the times right.

  24. Player One
    Dangerous is a succinct way of putting it. Until the Lying Toad took into a war we did not want with Sir Knight Blair and Gung-Ho Little Bush, no-one in the Middle East would have known Australia from Austria, or a species of grasshopper.

    Now every would be jihadist terrorist angry unemployed man in any the various countries where things are settled with violence by preference knows exactly how many stars are on the Australian flag.

    Thanks heaps, you war-mongering selfish puppets of the rich and powerful, the West’s Trio of Stupid, and our illustrious member, that woeful failure John Winston Howard.

  25. Player One
    Dangerous is a succinct way of putting it. Until the Lying Toad took into a war we did not want with Sir Knight Blair and Gung-Ho Little Bush, no-one in the Middle East would have known Australia from Austria, or a species of grasshopper.

    Now every would be jihadist terrorist angry unemployed man in any the various countries where things are settled with violence by preference knows exactly how many stars are on the Australian flag.

    Thanks heaps, you war-mongering selfish puppets of the rich and powerful, the West’s Trio of Stupid, and our illustrious member, that woeful failure John Winston Howard.

  29. Davidwh
    I did not mean JG to do it. But we can follow her lead, we do not have to put up with the incompetent just because he has the letters PM in front of his name.

    Perhaps the Liberal Party will dump him, though they need to make sure he is not in a position to be a toxic plant in the garden. Being kind and giving him a Cabinet position so he can leak against the new leader would be really silly. He should be relegated to the back bench and sent to coventry. If you cannot get rid of the boil at least stop it from spreading. That is probably what the Libs would do, being more ruthless than Labor.

    Though Abbott probably is good for the ALP at the moment.

  32. I wonder how long it will take for Abbott to get bored with this war. He gets bored very easily. Just look how he got bored of his visit to Arnhem Land and bunked out early. He is going to learn there is not much in photo ops with this, unless one of our ADF personnel gets killed, where upon there is the disembarking the coffin ceremony, the National Broadcasts, the Minutes Silence in the House, the Memorium Service etc etc.

    With all luck Abbott will be denied all that.

  35. davidwh@578

    I doubt JG is in a position to do to Abbott what she did to Rudd. I think for now PMTA’s position is secure.

    Unfortunately, I can’t see the Lunatic National Party dumping their erstwhile leader either. The best we can hope for is for the electorate to give him the flick at the earliest possible opportunity

  41. Raaraa@589

    davidwh

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/attacks-on-muslim-women-a-sad-indictment-on-brisbane-20141007-10rkyz.html

    What’s the sentiments in West End? Is this a couple of bad apples hitting out on overseas students? I never remembered West End to be like this.

    That sort of a thing is a complete puzzle to me. I just don’t get it as my reaction is the complete opposite.

    I now go out of my way to be supportive to Muslim women and men, mainly women as they are more visible. For example, when attending a recent event I noticed a girl in a hijab seeming to be a little on the outer so I went up to her, introduced myself, got talking and took her around introducing her to others. At the end of the evening, I and another guy escorted her safely to the station as we were also catching a train.

    Easy and simple to do and I now have a delightful young Shiite lady as a friend. 🙂

  42. [SENIOR ministers fear the state Opposition may be aware of large parts of their planned election policies.

    The scale of a potentially disastrous security leak has dawned after the successful launch of Labor’s jobs blueprint 24 hours before a government jobs announcement.

    Several Coalition sources yesterday blamed the leak on the circulation of draft policies to the Budget Expenditure Review Committee, where they would have been seen by senior bureaucrats.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria-state-election-2014/state-government-in-turmoil-over-labor-moles-policy-leaks/story-fnocxssc-1227083177550

  43. Re P1 @568: maybe extending the term of the Trade Union Witch Hunt by a year, in spite of the Commissioner not asking for such an extension, might be part of the strategy.

  45. bemused

    [he was able to steal 2 mobile phones off them and get away. How?]

    He probably just grabbed them as the skater were probably trying to the call the cops. He sounds like an utter nut & from my experience skaters are pretty laid back so not inclined to flatten somebody on the spot.

  46. mikehilliard@595

    bemused

    he was able to steal 2 mobile phones off them and get away. How?


    He probably just grabbed them as the skater were probably trying to the call the cops. He sounds like an utter nut & from my experience skaters are pretty laid back so not inclined to flatten somebody on the spot.

    Have to be something like that.

    Vic, yes, I saw the no bail – good decision.

  47. The impression I got from one news bulletin last night that it was the Commissioner himself who requested more time – and money – $8 million was it? – for the RC into unions?

    While I have no doubt that Abbott and Co were more than happy to go along with this, it may be inaccurate to pin the extension on Abbott this time around.

    Having said this, that Abbott or Brandis may have whispered sweet nothings in the ear of said Commissioner, is always a possibility.

  48. Steve777@593

    Re P1 @568: maybe extending the term of the Trade Union Witch Hunt by a year, in spite of the Commissioner not asking for such an extension, might be part of the strategy.

    Yes, seems likely. At least we can hope it backfires on them by causing a few of their key financial backers to be caught out doing various dodgy deals. After all, it takes two to tango.

  49. Tricot@597

    The impression I got from one news bulletin last night that it was the Commissioner himself who requested more time – and money – $8 million was it? – for the RC into unions?

    While I have no doubt that Abbott and Co were more than happy to go along with this, it may be inaccurate to pin the extension on Abbott this time around.

    Having said this, that Abbott or Brandis may have whispered sweet nothings in the ear of said Commissioner, is always a possibility.

    I heard Ged Kearney on the radio yesterday and she was pretty emphatic that the initiative came from the Govt.

  50. Raaraa #589 hopefully it is no more than a few idiots thinking they are acting for the good of us all. I trust it is no more than that and I don’t feel anything more widespread.

    Sadly there is always a few people who act like idiots given any situation.

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