Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September

Newspoll has given us its regularly quarterly insight into how its last three months of polling have broken down according to state, gender and age group.

The Australian has published its regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by (mainland) state, gender and age group, from its combined polling over the period of July to September. With this big infusion of state-level data, later this week I will publish the BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown, featuring state-level primary vote numbers and polling trend charts (you can see the previous effort from the end of June here). Also later today should be the regularly weekly Essential Research poll.

In case you missed it, yesterday’s Roy Morgan gave the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was down from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the 2013 election. The Greens were steady at 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research – Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 4%, two-party 52-48 to Labor. A suite of questions on major government decisions over the past year turn in predictable responses, with turning back the boats, freezing foreign aid and dumping the carbon tax strongly approved of, and pretty much anything involving the budget disapproved of. The only neutral responses were for military aid to Iraq and dumping the mining tax. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated the economy well managed, against 28% for poorly. Respondents were most concerned about cost of living issues, and least concerned about national debt and the budget deficit. Other questions find an even balance between those who think income tax too high (42%) and about right (40%); more favouring less services and lower taxes (28%) than the opposite (19%), but with 35% preferring the current balance; and 59% thinking it would be good for the economy if corporations paid more tax, versus 17% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

768 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September”

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  1. [The consortium that was last week awarded the contract to deliver the East West Link has shown its appreciation by shouting a select group of public servants dinner at Melbourne’s most expensive restaurant.

    The East West Connect consortium, led by development giant Lend Lease, celebrated winning the $5.3 billion contract by hosting a lavish dinner at top restaurant Vue de Monde. The dinner was attended by senior staff from the Linking Melbourne Authority, which has overseen the Napthine government’s flagship project since its inception in 2011.

    “East West Connect hosted and paid for a project dinner last night which was attended by executives from all lead consortium members and LMA,” an authority spokeswoman told Fairfax Media]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-contract-winners-shout-top-public-servants-dinner-at-vue-de-monde-20141008-10rscg.html

  4. “If a player wants to leave then we’ll look at that opportunity for them to leave, but it would have to be a good deal for us otherwise Paddy will stay an Essendon player,” Hird said.

    But not if Paddy takes EFC to court for failure of duty of care and succeeds. It would be somewhat ironic if Hird finds that he is not the only person who can try use lawyers to get what he wants.

    As for the duty of care case, EFC has instituted a five year player health monitoring program in response to the peptide tide. Should be fairly straight forward, I would have thought.

    There is one other thing. Ryder has apparently played ball in the sense of requesting interested clubs to trade for him as if there were no duty of care suit in the offing.

    Will Hird’s words tip Ryder away from this selfless act?

  7. [ Several Coalition sources yesterday blamed the leak on the circulation of draft policies to the Budget Expenditure Review Committee, where they would have been seen by senior bureaucrats. ]

    LOL! Those pesky Laborite public servants. Can’t trust a one of em!!! 🙂

  8. imacca,

    The Libs leaked against Baillieau constantly and the notorious Age recorder that went missing had Baillieau leaking against his internal enemies and there was the alleged police inquiry in to leaks from “a Federal Politicians” office a couple of months ago.

    Blaming bureaucrats is a bit of a stretch.

  15. D0es Abbott lack concentration on F Affairs
    __________________________________
    Someone earlier here raised the point that he seems to become bored with an issue

    Nowdays it’s all about the Iraq crisis,et al..he loves wars

    A few months ago it was all about the Ukraine when he and Bishop never spoke of anything else…and he was going to be the scourge of Putin and bring the Russian to heel(a task that eluded Napoleon and Hitler…not easy to do )

    Now he never speaks about the Ukraine…difficult to do with the Ceasefire …and the growing economic crisis and possible collapse of the Kiev regime.. who need $60 billion quickly….will Hockey find many billions to help out.?.(.putting your money where your mouth is I think they say )

    Now his attacks on Putin won’t sit well at the coming Economic Forum in Beijing fopr the Asia-Pacific region…where his” best friend” the Jap PM is holding special talks with Putin…the sanctions the Japs imposed on Ruussia are hurting their own economy and they want out it sees…Sth Korea and China have filled the gap for the Russians

    Today Abe sent a birthday greeting to Putin
    ..and Abbott will have to be the Perfect Host for Putin…when he comes to Bribane and the G20….though it must have been made clear to him by someone…that he is just the host,he doesn’t decide the membership of the G20…(he can’t make it the G19 at a whim of his)

    It will fun to watch his backdown at Brisbane,and I guess the Russians won’t help him to avoid humiliation after his earlier trenchant remarks

  17. davidwh@600

    Raaraa #589 hopefully it is no more than a few idiots thinking they are acting for the good of us all. I trust it is no more than that and I don’t feel anything more widespread.

    Sadly there is always a few people who act like idiots given any situation.

    I’m hoping that’s the case. Through my interaction with Malaysian friends in West End, there’s a place of worship and a number of ethnic food shops. As a student, I remembered having a few late night kebabs and pides at a few different Turkish kebab joints too. Hard to think of West End as anything intolerant (and most likely from some far off suburb).

  19. Excerpts

    [The leaders of African nations Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Benin have announced plans to step up the fight against Boko Haram with an additional battalion and a command centre to tackle the militants whose insurgency has spread beyond Nigeria.]

    [Boko Haram’s violent five-year campaign for an Islamic state has killed thousands and threatens the stability of countries in west and central African regions.

    In the past two months, it has progressed from bombings, raids and kidnappings to trying to seize territory in remote areas near Nigeria’s border with Cameroon, possibly inspired by similar moves by Sunni Islamist militants in Iraq and Syria.]

  23. Is this a backdown or a deft evasive manoeuvre 😉

    [The federal Cabinet has ruled out the two options for downscaling the Renewable Energy Target which were recommended by the government’s hand-picked review panel led by businessman Dick Warburton, The Australian Financial Review.

    The newspaper quotes unnamed sources within the government as saying that the Warburton review “was only ever a starting point” and that Cabinet had formally moved to a position outside the two recommendations, both of which would have decimated the renewables industry.

    A spokesperson for Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane declined to confirm the report to Climate Spectator, saying the minister would be making no comment on the RET until the Coalition meets with Labor again, saying that was likely not to happen until the next parliamentary sitting period starting Monday week. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/10/8/renewable-energy/cabinet-rejects-warburton-report?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=944291&utm_campaign=cs_daily&modapt=

  24. Tony Abbott’s patented Brainfart(tm) to bone the RET has come a cropper.

    This utter waste of taxpayers money, sovereign risk to investment certainty, and pandering to the fossil fuel polluters makes his Iraq adventure look positively intelligent.

    [The federal Cabinet has ruled out the two options for downscaling the Renewable Energy Target which were recommended by the government’s hand-picked review panel led by businessman Dick Warburton, The Australian Financial Review.

    The newspaper quotes unnamed sources within the government as saying that the Warburton review “was only ever a starting point” and that Cabinet had formally moved to a position outside the two recommendations, both of which would have decimated the renewables industry.
    ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/10/8/renewable-energy/cabinet-rejects-warburton-report?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=944291&utm_campaign=cs_daily&modapt=

  26. This happens too often. Silence where there should be leadership.

    [Abbott should have defended our national weather agency against his advisor’s harmful overreach. Instead the attack was allowed to stand.

    But the besmirching of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is far from an isolated incident. In their first year of government, Abbott and his closest advisors have been leading radical attacks on some of Australia’s most important institutions.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/08/tony-abbotts-problem-with-australias-most-venerable-institutions?CMP=twt_gu

  27. [Liberal MP Andrew Laming has suggested the need to repair the federal budget will take precedence over the introduction of Tony Abbott’s signature $5.5 billion paid parental leave scheme, while he has also praised the existing scheme introduced by the former Labor government.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-andrew-laming-suggests-government-will-struggle-to-pass-paid-parental-leave-scheme-20141008-10rr3g.html

  30. More from above link.

    [In seeking to achieve narrow political advantage, the Abbott government is happy to denigrate and damage decades of accumulated institutional wisdom and practice. Far from being conservative, in its anti-institutionalism, Abbott is running a radical government that is attempting to pull up the root and branch of our national life.]

  32. It seems that whenever Abbott visits a business, His first question is wtte “how many females work here?” Does he think this provides justification for his position as Minister for Women?

  33. Lizzie

    If Rabbott was asked questions related to his position as Minister for Women, I bet the best he could come up with is that he represents the interests of women.

  34. Our institutions should embody the spirit of our shared life and be above the petty ruckus of day to day political advantage. Attacking Australia’s institutions spreads mistrust, erodes cohesion and gives life to an ethic of ‘anything goes’ in the name of winning among our political class. These are all outcomes that conservatives should deplore.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/08/tony-abbotts-problem-with-australias-most-venerable-institutions?CMP=twt_gu

    He should just come out and say it (as many others have): Abbott is, by nature, a wrecker and an anarchist.

    Always has been, always will be. Australia is being re-formed in Abbott’s image. And it’s a pretty ugly image.

  35. Dee

    It’s the sleazy smile as he asks the question that gets my goat.

    And you’re right about Rudd and Gillard being on top of detail. Most LNP answers are vacant spin. They don’t want to know and can’t defend without Peta’s hand up their backs.

  36. I know how much everyone loves the IPA, so it should come as no surprise that the recent attack on the BoM was started by the IPA.

    Jennifer Marohasey’s blog first raised the issue of adjustments and this was linked to by ‘Watts Up With That’ (I won’t link to it and please don’t generate traffic for that blog) and one in the Australian.

    JM is in the IPA.

    More details here:

    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/08/weather-in-rutherglen-with-wuwt.html

  38. BK

    depends a little on which stage of the jobseeking process you’re at, but generally it needs a business name, way to contact the business (email/phone/address) and the date.

  39. …you don’t need to have sent your C.V. – a phone call or calling in at the business premises counts. Of course, at one of the follow up interviews, they may tell you that they expect you to drop off a C.V. in the future (as I said, it depends a bit on the stage you’re at in the process…)

  40. Astrobleme@636

    I know how much everyone loves the IPA, so it should come as no surprise that the recent attack on the BoM was started by the IPA.

    Jennifer Marohasey’s blog first raised the issue of adjustments and this was linked to by ‘Watts Up With That’ (I won’t link to it and please don’t generate traffic for that blog) and one in the Australian.

    JM is in the IPA.

    More details here:

    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/08/weather-in-rutherglen-with-wuwt.html

    They won’t be able to get away with it for much longer. Climate change is occurring much faster than even the most pessimistic predictions the IPCC made only a few years ago. In our lifetimes we will now see indisputable damage from climate change – even for those of us already middle-aged. If you are still young, the future looks bleak indeed.

  41. [It’s the sleazy smile as he asks the question that gets my goat.]

    Yeah, Abbott may as well ask are there any good sorts working here rather than “women”, creep.

  42. P1

    Agreed.

    Jennifer Marohasey and her minions have been wrong with basically every ‘prediction’ they made. They have had zero credibility for a long time. Same with Watts Up With That.

    Bizarrely though, WUWT keeps getting voted the ‘Best Science Blog’ on the internet…

    They both serve the same purpose, which is to create FUD.

  44. But in an 11th-hour move, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has indicated there will be large revisions

    Whats that smell? Is the books being cooked?

  50. According to the Victor Police, the release of the latest crime statistics comes under “Caretaker” provisions of the coming election in that state.

    But apparently, not investigations into the Labor PArty…

    Poll ‘no block’ to ALP tape charges

    12:09PM JOHN FERGUSON AND RACHEL BAXENDALE

    VICTORIA’S Office of Public Prosecutions is investigating charges over the ALP-Fairfax Media stolen dictaphone affair.

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