Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September

Newspoll has given us its regularly quarterly insight into how its last three months of polling have broken down according to state, gender and age group.

The Australian has published its regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by (mainland) state, gender and age group, from its combined polling over the period of July to September. With this big infusion of state-level data, later this week I will publish the BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown, featuring state-level primary vote numbers and polling trend charts (you can see the previous effort from the end of June here). Also later today should be the regularly weekly Essential Research poll.

In case you missed it, yesterday’s Roy Morgan gave the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was down from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the 2013 election. The Greens were steady at 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research – Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 4%, two-party 52-48 to Labor. A suite of questions on major government decisions over the past year turn in predictable responses, with turning back the boats, freezing foreign aid and dumping the carbon tax strongly approved of, and pretty much anything involving the budget disapproved of. The only neutral responses were for military aid to Iraq and dumping the mining tax. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated the economy well managed, against 28% for poorly. Respondents were most concerned about cost of living issues, and least concerned about national debt and the budget deficit. Other questions find an even balance between those who think income tax too high (42%) and about right (40%); more favouring less services and lower taxes (28%) than the opposite (19%), but with 35% preferring the current balance; and 59% thinking it would be good for the economy if corporations paid more tax, versus 17% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

768 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September”

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  2. Labor and the Greens need to change the conversation back to health, education, Medicare, jobs, social security, jobs, jobs….

  4. Why is the ABC promoting the sequel to Twin Peaks. This doesn’t help the case for maintaining funding. Leave that stuff to the commercials.

  6. Morning all. Not a great poll result for Labor, confirming that hundreds of thousands of Australians really can be fooled into voting for an incompetent government by paranoia about a foreign extremist group that is neither genuinely representative of Islam nor a genuine threat to Australia.

    I can only wonder how the NRL grand final party would have been reported if the Bulldogs had won and there had been cheering fans all over Lakemba? Rioters in the street, no doubt.

  8. I agree about the need to change the conversation back to domestic topics. There are a few questions our PM/Treasurer/Infrastructure ministers should be asked:
    – How will you prevent recession in Australia if the Chinese economy slows?
    – Do we now need the NBN to compete in non-mining sectors?
    – (after 4 Corners last night) Do Australian spy agencies copy the content of Australian citizens emails and web searches without court orders? Are we all Al Quaeda suspects?

  9. From Briefly’s piece last night: Johnstone saying, “pockets of … highly professional and highly capable Iraqi security forces”.

    Sure, sure.

    The Coalition of Domestic Repair’s boots on the ground army consists of pockets. Johnstone has one positive as Minister for Defence.

    He says funny things.

  10. Raaraa

    We already do to a larger extent than we admit. The Australian government now contributes less fees per student to Australian universities for most courses than it gives to high schools. Graduates from engineering courses have HECS debts of $40K now. Medicine costs more like $80K+. Some degrees with low teaching and no lab costs, like economics and law, are effectively self funding – that is the student is paying the real full cost of the degree – regardless of what claims administrators might make. Academic accounting is as creative as any other field. See
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-cost-of-getting-a-university-degree-in-australia-is-about-to-change-heres-what-you-need-to-know-2014-6

    So yes, it will get worse. But it is already pretty bad.

  14. Speaking of 4 Corners and Australian data gathering attempts (hello NSA spooks!, hello Defence Signals guys!) we should all be aware that these efforts to invade our privacy, I mean protect us, can be undermined by too much data being gathered and being impossible to sift through. So the last thing we would want is for everyone to start putting terms like jihad, Al Quaeda, ISIL, terror, or infidel on the bottom of everything you post. That will create way too many hits for them. It would be like a guerrilla war on unethical eavesdropping 🙂

    Just to be clear, I am not a supporter of Al Quaeda, ISIL or Iran and I object to jihads and terrorism 🙂

    Have a good day all.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Bit of a slow news morning.

    We have mental giants running this country. That’s the best one can say about them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bureau-warned-greg-hunt-about-climate-change-before-he-cited-wikipedia-20141006-10qyg0.html
    Stephen Keim SC addresses a mosque congregation on terrorism and related things.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/those-first-casualties–stephen-keim-sc-speech-at-the-moorooka-mosque-31014,6968
    Paul Bongiorno – New terror laws are hurting rather than helping.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/10/06/paul-bongiorno-terror-laws-hurting-help/
    Kevin Pietersen spills the beans,
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/kevin-pietersen-claims-bullying-hurt-england-dressing-room-20141006-10qt85.html
    This will auger well for the Coalition’s chances in the future.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/20year-decline-in-year-12-science-and-maths-participation-study-finds-20141006-10qvq2.html
    Morrison and Brandis now have the draft report from the Human Rights Commission into child detention.
    https://theconversation.com/child-detention-report-timetable-tight-for-tabling-this-year-32546
    The penny finally drops for Hockey. We have a revenue problem.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/10/07/budget-forecast-hit-slow-growth/
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/10/06/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-79/
    Oh dear. The Property Council is smarting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tax-justice-networks-report-on-business-tax-is-a-hatchet-job-20141006-10pcbe.html
    Australian TV can and should do better. I agree with the writer’s comments about the product on BBC First.
    https://theconversation.com/tepid-tv-australia-needs-to-sharpen-its-cutting-edge-32166

  19. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir is back from holidays with a dark one.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope with a ripper on the school chaplaincy program.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg gets it in one, so to speak.

    Rod Clement with our air force’s rules of engagement. David Rowe seems to have disappeared from the AFR website this morning.

  21. For those still wondering why the Libs are on the nose and their State Government will go down in November, a post from MP Jenny Mikakos summarises it succinctly.

    Under the Napthine Government
    – unemployment up from 4.9 to 6.8%
    – car industry gone
    – 68,000 more Victorians out of work
    – no jobs plan

  24. Ballieu got re elected by promising to be Labor-with-a-set-of-free-steak-knives (he portrayed himself as the worker’s friend, and at least matched Labor’s promises in most areas) and distancing himself from all things Kennett.

    Of course, once elected, he instantly revealed himself as a Kennett protegee (as anyone who followed state politics already knew).

    The Kennett years made Victorians very determined not to go down that road again. They’d tried fiscal discipline and it sucked. That’s part of the reason – a very big part – that the Liberals have done poorly down here over the past decade.

    So they weren’t impressed to find that they’d been dudded, after (reluctantly) voting them back in.

  26. zoomster
    I also get the impression that the Victorians have not quite yet entered into the full spirit of post-truth politics.

  27. Boerwar

    [I also get the impression that the Victorians have not quite yet entered into the full spirit of post-truth politics.]

    Proud to be a renegade. 😀

  28. You do have to wonder about the Liberal mindset, though.

    Minion: So what do you intend to do if you regain government?

    Liberal leader: Oh, the usual. Slash the public service, take money away from schools and hospitals, stop action on climate change, build roads rather than public transport…

    Minion: So why don’t you say you’re going to do these things now?

    LL: Because people wouldn’t vote for us if we did.

    Minion: So won’t you lose votes when you do do these things?

    LL: ……..

  30. Boerwar

    The Essendon FC have monumentally stuffed up with Paul little running the show.
    Meanwhile the Herald Sun spruiks for Hird and Co, and The Age not so much.
    Hird continues to prove what a narcissistic individual he is.

  32. I forget to mention that the Iraqi Army will have to fight a third Battle of Fallujah.

    What’s left of this once-thriving city of a couple of over two hundred thousand people is firmly in ISIL hands.

    Most of the city’s inhabitants had already fled, courtesy of the Bush/Blair/Howard Death Cult Triumvirate Second War of Iraq.

    What’s left of the Fallujah (and surrounds) mostly Sunni populationhave various ideas about what they would really like, but they probably will not get that under either ISIL Death Cult or under the Shia Death Cult.

    They should be grateful that Australia will only bomb members of the Fallujah population if they are in the same house/street/suburb/city as an ISIL fighter/truck/ammo clip/petrol tanker/command post/rooftop observation post… etc, etc, etc.

    Absurdistan FA-18s fly over this sort of utter shambles at $10,000 per hour per plane.

  35. Boerwar

    One term govts are rare. Despite the spruiking and influence by our msm, the coalition govt do not have the luxury of controlling information, as could be done in the past.

  36. [BK
    Posted Tuesday, October 7, 2014 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Bit of a slow news morning.]

    As good as it gets?

    Thanks as always for the listings.

  39. victoria

    the media always seem to think the Liberals are going to win. They kept trying to think of ways Howard was going to turn things around in the lead up to the 2007 election.

    Remember that stupid article by one of ‘The Age’s political writers after the State budget, where the journo said it was a game changer and would see the Libs romp back in? And yet the Budget vanished without a trace or a polling blip.

    I also remember the hagiography around the certainty of Kennett’s reelection in 1999, and one (respected) journo ending up with egg on his face because he’d submitted a “Kennett wins in a canter” article on the Friday before the election.

    Not saying the Libs won’t be re elected, but I wouldn’t go by the msm’s predictions.

  45. lizzie

    talking to a local the other day (about Cathy McGowan’s campaign) and he said that the trouble was that her campaign was run by a group of young people who saw it as a game.

    That seems to be what student politics is about; not winning to actually do something real but winning.

    I’ve often compared campaigning to one of those TV games where the challenges you have to overcome to win have very little to do with the actual prize.

    The Liberals seem to be creatures of student politics. They want to win, and win at almost any cost. Once they win, however, they don’t know what to do with the prize.

  46. lizzie,

    Alan Hunt is best remembered for standing up the Jeff Kennett when he was Leader of the Upper House in Victoria. Kennett wanted to force a poll in the early 90’s by blocking supply. Hunt would not have a bar of it.

  48. victoria

    I’m a lousy predictor of election outcomes (give me a set of figures after an election, however, and I’ll call the results quicker than almost anyone…) so I’m not going to make any calls on the Victorian election!

  50. [Stockholm: Norwegian scientist May-Britt Moser danced and drank champagne after winning the Nobel Prize for medicine together with her husband Edvard Moser and British-American scientist John O’Keefe.

    “This is so great, this is crazy. I am just jumping, screaming,” Moser said. “I am so proud of all the support that we have had. People have believed in us, in what we have been doing and now this is the reward.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/trio-win-nobel-prize-for-medicine-for-discovering-an-inner-gps-in-the-brain-20141006-10r2zc.html#ixzz3FP4mrqVL ]

    So while Norwegians are running one of the world’s best economies as well as winning Nobel prizes, we are still digging up dirt that fewer and fewer customers want to buy, closing down broadband, dumbing down universities, denying Climate Change and in general doing really useful things like buying each others’ houses and buying each others’ houses.

    Oh, and flying around deserts, strutting our stuff doing “combat missions” against an enemy who’s already worked out that all you have to do is hide under a rock. It took them about 2 weeks to come up with this simple tactic to avoid being blown to smithereens while we waste half-a-billion a year preening ourselves as warriors.

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