Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll records a solid shift in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings in the wake of recent war and terrorism talk, although the yield on voting intention is rather slight.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor leading 51-49, which is down a point on last time and equal with the time before (and also the same as the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday). Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up two), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (down three on last time, back to where they were the time before). Tony Abbott has enjoyed a big hike in his personal ratings, up six on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 52%, and he has gained a 41-37 lead on preferred prime minister after being level at 37-37 last time. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval 43%. Hat-tip to GhostWhoVotes, and of course The Australian.

Also out today was the regularly fortnightly Morgan poll, covering a sample of 2922 respondents from two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling. This recorded next to no change for the major parties on the primary vote – the Coalition on 38.5% and Labor on 37.5%, both up half a point on last fortnight – but has the minor parties moving in accordance with recent trends, the Greens being up 1.5% to 12% and Palmer United being down half a point to 4%. The previous poll was the only one recently published which failed to record a lift for the Greens, no doubt because half the survey period predated the bipartisan commitment to send military forces to Iraq. Labor gains half a point on both the respondent-allocated and previous election measures of two-party preferred, respectively leading 54.5-45.5 and 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 53-47 to Labor, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens down one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 4%. Also featured is a biannual gauge of attributes of the various parties, recording little change for Labor since March apart from a six point drop on “clear about what they stand for”, while the Liberal Party has weakened across the board, particularly with respect to “keeps its promises” (down nine points), “divided” (up eight points) and “looks after the interests of working people” (down six points). The poll adds further to a somewhat confusing picture on the public attitudes to the Iraq commitment, with 52% expressing approval for sending military personnel versus 34% disapproval. However, 51% say doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, versus only 15% for more safe. Questions on industrial relations laws indicate broad satisfaction with the status quo, 30% saying current laws balance the interests of employers and workers, and a fairly even 23% and 17% believing they favour employers and workers respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,151 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 24
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  1. Abbott has stated no to Syria publicly. So is Australia a nation state partner in these airstrikes?. Abbott’s said lots of things publically and done the opposite. More mission creep ( or mission dash).

  5. I enjoyed Q and A last night. The two counter-terrorism expert and the social researcher (who focuses on Islamic identity and Islamophobia) were exceptionally articulate and forceful. I liked Scott Ludlam – he let the women speak most because their experience was most relevant to the questions – but he was not asleep. Far from it. He made some excellent points about how intelligence agencies and law enforcement will always push for more powers but this doesn’t mean the wish list should be granted. He used the term ‘strategic amnesia’ and drew a well-reasoned parallel between the current military plans and the ill-considered invasion and occupation of Iraq. He pushed back at the Justice Minister’s attempt to decontextualize the current problems in Iraq and forget the history. The Shadow Justice Minister was pretty bland and cautious. The Justice Minister didn’t make a compelling argument for additional counter-terrorism powers. He just used the word “barbarism” a lot and exhorted us to trust our professional, wise, admirable intelligence agencies and AFP to act always in the public interest without us needing to debate their powers or scrutinize their activities.

  8. Raaraa

    It will be predominantly black with something white.

    We should be next: Green with gold southern cross and three outline stripes of a red, a white and a blue.

    You read it here first 😀

  10. MTBW

    [Georgia and one of her friends at Georgia’s request asked my son to take them in his Mustang.]

    I took a friends daughter to hers on my red Ducati.

    So she had to wear the right sort of dress (wide) and we practised her getting off with grace the week before.

    It went off fine on the evening.

  11. [70
    Socrates

    Sadly, this political situation is reciprocal. Just as the IS is a political gift for Tony Abbott, scaring his right wing-nut supporters, Tony Abbott is a political gift to the IS, his overreactions scaring more young men into their camp, giving them strength, and a target to fight.]

    No question they are feeding off each other, and that Abbott is deliberately stoking these fires.

    Very dangerous stuff.

  20. guytaur@215

    @smh: Liberal MP Alex Hawke accuses #qanda of broadcasting ‘conspiracy theories’ on terror raids http://t.co/rpLREN2Uyd #auspol

    The louder they squeal, the more obvious they make it that there was indeed a ‘conspiracy’ between the LNP and the AFP – in the timing of the raids at the very least.

  21. The oncoming drought in Sth Eastern Oz
    ______________
    Have federal or state govts made any plans for what may be a major “El Nino ” drought if the BoM predictions are correct ?

    I doubt it
    Victoria has had a cold but very dry winter with several months well below winter rainfall
    Melbourne today is experiencing a very warn day for Sept,and it’s been a
    dry month for the whole state and I think… for SA and Sth NSW

    Speaking to a friend whose whole family are wheat growers in the Mallee which is bone dry,he tells me they have lost their winter wheat which after a few months growth is now stunted and dying
    They are harvesting it as hay for sale as their entire crp is lost
    He says this is the case right across the wheat areas of the South Eastern states
    How will this effect the economy and the balance of payments as Wheat is a major item for sale overseas ??

  23. Tony Abbott continues to make me puke, saying he’s everyone’s best friend:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2014/sep/23/poll-bounce-for-tony-abbott-with-parliament-to-debate-terror-laws-politics-live
    “I spent many years in this parliament as the best friend that Medicare has ever had – and I’ve got to say I want Medicare to be sustainable – and the best way to keep and preserve and strengthen our Medicare system over the medium and longer term is with a modest co-payment. “

  24. And further, people continue to buy his crap:

    “One is to ensure that these places are not bases from which people can attack us. The second goal is to stop avoidable genocide. We have modest ambitions. We have minimal involvement”

    Sir Lanka genocide anyone?

  26. [
    I spent many years in this parliament as the best friend that Medicare has ever had – and I’ve got to say I want Medicare to be sustainable – and the best way to keep and preserve and strengthen our Medicare system over the medium and longer term is with a modest co-payment.
    ]

    Aren’t the funds raised from the co-payment going to some Medical Research fund. How is that going to help Medicare over the medium term?

  28. I am seeing lot of tweets like this. So I assume media people are too.

    Abbott ran the carbon tax and mining tax fear, now that’s over we get the raised fear campaign.. fear fear fear for vote votes votes

  31. “@bkjabour: Fifield when asked if welfare card will be introduced: “The govt is considering future directions for the welfare systemconsidering options””

  33. [“I spent many years in this parliament as the best friend that Medicare has ever had – and I’ve got to say I want Medicare to be sustainable – and the best way to keep and preserve and strengthen our Medicare system over the medium and longer term is with a modest co-payment. “]

    The idiot PM is apparently unaware that the “modest co-payment” is to be diverted into a medical research slush fund. It will NOT directly re-invested into the Medicare system.

  35. deblonay@221

    The oncoming drought in Sth Eastern Oz
    ______________
    Have federal or state govts made any plans for what may be a major “El Nino ” drought if the BoM predictions are correct ?

    I doubt it
    Victoria has had a cold but very dry winter with several months well below winter rainfall
    Melbourne today is experiencing a very warn day for Sept,and it’s been a
    dry month for the whole state and I think… for SA and Sth NSW

    Speaking to a friend whose whole family are wheat growers in the Mallee which is bone dry,he tells me they have lost their winter wheat which after a few months growth is now stunted and dying
    They are harvesting it as hay for sale as their entire crp is lost
    He says this is the case right across the wheat areas of the South Eastern states
    How will this effect the economy and the balance of payments as Wheat is a major item for sale overseas ??

    Very dry up here in Armidale on the Northern Tablelands of NSW. I’ve got a hobby farm, and at this time I am usually on my rideon mower most days, trying to keep up with the grass.

    Not at the moment. I do a few desultory sweeps once a week just to knock the tops off the weeds. The mower kicks up dust on some areas, unheard of at this time of year.

  36. So Essential is steady at 53% to 47% to the ALP, with Labor up 1 point on the primaries, so this being half of the 2 weekly average, it could have been a bit higher in the 2nd week just gone past, ie: no poll boost for the Abbott War hysteria since the beginning of last week.

    Suck eggs, Murdoch

  37. Political Alert ‏@political_alert 1h
    SA Premier Jay Weatherill has announced the State Government will increase its Renewable Energy Target to 50 per cent by 2025 #saparli

    Can’t see Bill Shorten having the courage or will to commit to an increase of the RET… perhaps Daniel Andrews might consider such… ?

  38. Deb – commiserations to your friend on his crop.

    The weather variation is so obvious now that if there’s a farmer growing cereal crops in Victoria or southern NSW that doesn’t recognise this they must be in a coma.

    This month in particular can be a killer even if rain has fallen just at the right times through the year – heat being a real threat.

    I think 1967 (could have been 1 yr either side) was one that was particularly cruel. Beautiful crops with big heads and then round about now 1 day when the temperature got over 90F. The crops (2,000 acres of it ours) just fell over in the paddocks.

    Fortunately in those days you could still afford to insure a good one. Not now, I’d say.

  40. Just had a friend I’m Hong Kong ask me about Abbott’s views on indigenous Australians – possibly in the telegraph – has anyone seen it?

  46. Ctar1

    [I took a friends daughter to hers on my red Ducati.]

    Been away for a while but just wanted to say that at the age of twelve or so they feel really important and it is a big deal for them.

    They will remember what you did for a lifetime.

    My son will be just like you – Good on you!

  47. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/09/sandgropers-take-iron-ore-denial-to-the-next-level/

    [West Australian Treasurer Mike Nahan says the plunge in iron ore prices is getting to the point of serious concern, after it slid below $US80 a tonne.

    The benchmark price hit a fresh five-year low of $79.80 overnight, after the Chinese government indicated it was unlikely to implement an aggressive stimulus policy to prop-up construction.

    It is more than $40 less than the figure WA Treasury used to calculate expected revenue for this financial year, which has led to a state budget hole in excess of $1.5 billion……

    Iron ore royalties account for 20 per cent of WA’s income.]

    If sustained, the fall in the IO price will probably cost WA around $2.5 bill this financial year – an amount that will be clawed back through the GST allocation process from the other states in coming years.

    A fall of this magnitude would leave the budget in deficit by around 10% for the year and adding to our already magnificent net debt of $ 22 bill.

  48. WeWantPaul

    [

    Just had a friend I’m Hong Kong ask me about Abbott’s views on indigenous Australians – possibly in the telegraph – has anyone seen it?]
    This is the SMH report on what he told the pomgolian paper.

    [Early British settlement ‘all bad’ for indigenous Australians: Tony Abbott

    Mr Abbott has told British newspaper The Telegraph that “we have not entirely come to terms with this side of the Australian reality” and that recognising Aboriginal people in the constitution would address a “discomfort in our national character”.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/early-british-settlement-all-bad-for-indigenous-australians-tony-abbott-20140923-10ksdm.html#ixzz3E79m5IbI

  50. MTBW

    Having a friends child on-board meant I was very cautious. She wanted people hear the Ducati coming.

    So not only was the ‘getting off’ bit practised but also the ‘ride’ part.

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