Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll records a solid shift in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings in the wake of recent war and terrorism talk, although the yield on voting intention is rather slight.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor leading 51-49, which is down a point on last time and equal with the time before (and also the same as the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday). Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up two), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (down three on last time, back to where they were the time before). Tony Abbott has enjoyed a big hike in his personal ratings, up six on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 52%, and he has gained a 41-37 lead on preferred prime minister after being level at 37-37 last time. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval 43%. Hat-tip to GhostWhoVotes, and of course The Australian.

Also out today was the regularly fortnightly Morgan poll, covering a sample of 2922 respondents from two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling. This recorded next to no change for the major parties on the primary vote – the Coalition on 38.5% and Labor on 37.5%, both up half a point on last fortnight – but has the minor parties moving in accordance with recent trends, the Greens being up 1.5% to 12% and Palmer United being down half a point to 4%. The previous poll was the only one recently published which failed to record a lift for the Greens, no doubt because half the survey period predated the bipartisan commitment to send military forces to Iraq. Labor gains half a point on both the respondent-allocated and previous election measures of two-party preferred, respectively leading 54.5-45.5 and 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 53-47 to Labor, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens down one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 4%. Also featured is a biannual gauge of attributes of the various parties, recording little change for Labor since March apart from a six point drop on “clear about what they stand for”, while the Liberal Party has weakened across the board, particularly with respect to “keeps its promises” (down nine points), “divided” (up eight points) and “looks after the interests of working people” (down six points). The poll adds further to a somewhat confusing picture on the public attitudes to the Iraq commitment, with 52% expressing approval for sending military personnel versus 34% disapproval. However, 51% say doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, versus only 15% for more safe. Questions on industrial relations laws indicate broad satisfaction with the status quo, 30% saying current laws balance the interests of employers and workers, and a fairly even 23% and 17% believing they favour employers and workers respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,151 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. I got pretty close – this is what I predicted this morning:

    [I am going with Newspoll to remain at status quo, ie: 52% to 48% TPP to the ALP, with Abbott to be slightly ahead of the lugubrious Shorten in the preferred PM metric, and Abbott’s dissatisfaction to be improved a bit, but still over 50%.]

    2PP out by 1, but spot on with PPM and Abbott dissatisfaction.

  3. Keenan looked a fool talking about Iraq by denying his former PM’s comments tonight.

    That would not have gone down well with Liberal voters.

    As for polls we know this is a high water mark as the Senate starts blocking legislation again

  5. [guytaur
    Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 at 11:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Keenan looked a fool talking about Iraq by denying his former PM’s comments tonight.

    That would not have gone down well with Liberal voters.

    As for polls we know this is a high water mark]

    We know this do we?

    YIKES! Don’t need to bother with polls or aggregates, guitar knows :devil:

  7. In regards to comments of the Greens` leadership, on the previous thread, I make the following points:

    I do not think Milne will be challenged anytime son and will likely be leader at the next election.

    SHY is unlikely to be the Greens leader.

    If Bandt maintains his ability to win his seat, he could well be the next leader.

    Ludlam would be a good and also popular choice for leader, especially after the WA Senate re-run.

    Waters does not come across badly either.

  8. Everything

    Yes we know because National Security like boats only goes so far.

    Abbott has shown no signs of running a competent government yet

  9. Raaraa:

    Definitely missed that. Hilarious.

    Leave it to Wilson to do the heavy lifting needed of human rights commissioners in defending McDonalds customers!

    Jesus.

  10. Perhaps you could tell the AEC that they do not need to bother with the next election, just wait for you to drop them a note about what you know the result will be.

  11. The constant talk on terrorism can’t hurt but only help Abbott.

    Abbott will milk it for all he can.

    Old Media will probably be at it until the next election to maximise their Monkey’s chances of another win.

    I find it all so BORING!

  13. 9

    The really scary thing is the ‘spending is speech’ idea. That is saying that rich people should have more speech, as opposed to just money, than the poor. It is the sort of idea used by courts to strike down campaign donation restrictions.

  14. You could get 50:1 for Buddy Franklin to win the Brownlow and Sydney to win the Premiership yesterday.

    Buddy came second, I hope Sydney doesn’t as well!

  17. Realistically we are only one fairly minor terrorist incident away from a major reversal of the polls and a khaki election; I suspect a DD rather than a half Senate

  20. Rob Oakeshott retweeted
    HRH Harry Larsen ‏@berkeleyboy 13h

    Ex-spy Andrew Wilkie MP says ONA told John Howard, Saddam did not have #WMDs – and he committed us to Iraq war anyway. #RoyalCommission?

  22. The Newspoll result just reflects that both Abbott and Shorten have handled the security threats pretty well. It’s not all that unexpected as people generally expect leaders of the main parties to act with certainty and reassurance.

  31. 17

    There cannot be a half Senate election called before 1/7/2016 and thus there will not be. A DD is an option, as is a House only election with a DD as a strong favourite as the Senate is where the government is having problems.

  33. Zoidlord I think most Aussies don’t see things the same way most here do. The politics are hardly relevant for most folks when fundamental crazies are plotting to do crazy things to innocent Aussies. Basically they expect our leaders to do something about it. That’s pretty well why there is strong bi-partisan support for what the government is doing.

    It’s not always about the politics. In fact for most people it’s nearly always never about the politics.

  37. @davidwh/33

    So it’s OK to have bi-partisan support for scaring the crap out of the population (terrorists under your bed), but zero bi-partisan support for anything else? This is where I disagree with the majority here.

    Especially considering that most of public has been lied by the National Security has been lied upon since the invasion of IRAQ.

    Your supporting part of the problem.

  39. Guytaur when you have an otherwise ordinary PM supported by the OL doing in a coordinated way what people should expect they do given the situation then it was never likely to result in a major shift in polling. The minor parties seem to be the ones taking a minor hit.

  40. zoid

    Labor got it right by not supporting Bush/Howard to go to war in Iraq and have got it right again by supporting Obama/Abbott.

    The Iraqi government and asked for our involvement.

  41. [briefly
    Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 at 11:28 pm | PERMALINK
    The AUD is very weak tonight..USD0.886…    ]

    Briefly

    From an economist’s point of view, that’s a good thing isn’t it?

  42. Things that pose a greater danger to Australians than terrorists: driving, falls at home, influenza, swimming, taking part in ‘fun runs’…

    Probably also unemployment, lengthening hospital waiting lists…

    Like someone set in Q&A, it’s theatre. And Abbott loves a good stoush.

  44. There’s nothing like some good old fashioned war talk for the oldies to forget that Abbott is attacking their pensions.

    They’ll be really sorry if they give this turkey another go.

  45. Zoidlord no I don’t support scaring the crap out of people and knowing Aussies they may become a little cautious but not too many scared crapless. It’s just not in our nature. But I do believe the threat is a real threat however as told by an expert on RN the chance for any individual being harmed is pretty small.

    But I don’t believe this is some conspiracy between the Libs, Labor, ASIO and the AFP just to booste Abbott’s profile.

  48. Why does Newspoll persist in coming up with such a pathetic PV for Labor when NONE of the others to my knowledge have it anywhere near that low? IMO it just doesn’t ring true.

  50. davidwh

    [But I don’t believe this is some conspiracy between the Libs, Labor, ASIO and the AFP just to boost Abbott’s profile.]

    I’d be surprised if that were Zoid’s claim. There can be little doubt though that milking fears over terrorism is a good way for a government to underpin its support and divert attention from more divisive matters. ASIO and the AFP of course have their own agenda. The ALP feel they can’t be oppositional on this matter for fear of being wedged on their right.

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