Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll records a solid shift in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings in the wake of recent war and terrorism talk, although the yield on voting intention is rather slight.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor leading 51-49, which is down a point on last time and equal with the time before (and also the same as the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday). Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up two), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (down three on last time, back to where they were the time before). Tony Abbott has enjoyed a big hike in his personal ratings, up six on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 52%, and he has gained a 41-37 lead on preferred prime minister after being level at 37-37 last time. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval 43%. Hat-tip to GhostWhoVotes, and of course The Australian.

Also out today was the regularly fortnightly Morgan poll, covering a sample of 2922 respondents from two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling. This recorded next to no change for the major parties on the primary vote – the Coalition on 38.5% and Labor on 37.5%, both up half a point on last fortnight – but has the minor parties moving in accordance with recent trends, the Greens being up 1.5% to 12% and Palmer United being down half a point to 4%. The previous poll was the only one recently published which failed to record a lift for the Greens, no doubt because half the survey period predated the bipartisan commitment to send military forces to Iraq. Labor gains half a point on both the respondent-allocated and previous election measures of two-party preferred, respectively leading 54.5-45.5 and 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 53-47 to Labor, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens down one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 4%. Also featured is a biannual gauge of attributes of the various parties, recording little change for Labor since March apart from a six point drop on “clear about what they stand for”, while the Liberal Party has weakened across the board, particularly with respect to “keeps its promises” (down nine points), “divided” (up eight points) and “looks after the interests of working people” (down six points). The poll adds further to a somewhat confusing picture on the public attitudes to the Iraq commitment, with 52% expressing approval for sending military personnel versus 34% disapproval. However, 51% say doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, versus only 15% for more safe. Questions on industrial relations laws indicate broad satisfaction with the status quo, 30% saying current laws balance the interests of employers and workers, and a fairly even 23% and 17% believing they favour employers and workers respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,151 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 24
1 2 3 24
  1. 41

    It’s helpful to diversified exporters and import-competing firms. If a depreciation is substantial and prolonged, it will drive new investment in these sectors, reducing our over-reliance on resource development and the property sector.

    However, the fall in the dollar will also push up the cost of imports and this will reduce real wages, maybe in turn also causing demand to slow and eventually retarding economic activity, employment and investment. Whether this is pronounced or not really depends on the scale and pace of depreciation.

    A further factor is the likely effect on interest rates. If markets decide the AUD is going to weaken there will be pressure on longer-term rates, which will reflect in mortgage rates, maybe suppressing demand for loans and sapping construction.

    The currency is falling for three reasons. Partly it reflects the relative strength of the USD which has firmed in the expectation that US interest rates will begin to rise. AUD weakness also reflects the decline in nominal growth rates, stagnation in income growth and finally the obvious deceleration in China. These things are all negative for the economy, for employment and investment and for the fiscal position.

    The depreciation is a real two-edged sword.

  2. Yes, you don’t need to suggest a conspiracy to understand why the LNP and the AFP/ASIO might separately be keen on beefing up ‘anti terror’ resourcing and legislation independent of the level of actual threat.

    It would be nice, as the public, to have independent voices guiding our public policy on these matters so we don’t risk being taken for a ride by the political interest of those in government and the sectional interest of the intelligence and security services.

  3. Three out of five panellists on tonight’s Q and A were very insightful: the counter-terrorism expert, the person who researches Islamophobia, and the Greens Senator. The Justice Minister and his Labor counterpart were dreary.

  4. I posted on Twitter that the rounding must have flattered Labor but I underestimated how pronounced it would have been. In fact when I feed these primaries in I get Labor at 49.8, so I have to make heroic rounding assumptions for Labor to drag that back to 50.5 so it rounds to 51. Of course I don’t know the state breakdowns in the primaries which may make some degree of difference, but probably not much.

    I am making a methods tweak to my aggregate to make it deal with cases like this one more accurately (or at least, I think so!). My reasoning will be explained in vast and wonky detail in my Poll Roundup tomorrow.

  5. Tattoos losing jobs in the UK:

    As it has done in AU, because stigma surrounded by them.

    (on similar topic to current debate).

    Iron Ore to 81.70/t.

    Metals are going low, due to weak China economy:

    Security Experts call for Ebay to tighten security due to hackers:

    A reminder on warrentless invasion of privacy:

    Night All.

  6. The Libs love security threats
    Howard got a real boost after Tampa,and also after 9/ii
    Menzies was an old hand at the threat of the REDS..
    In 1954 he initiated the Petrov case.buying Petrov who was KGB agent and may have been out of favour in Moscow as Stalin’s mates got to chop from Kruschev it was ..the most spectacular defection by a soviet spy with all the drama… the threats and terror…and then Menzies beat Dr Evatt in the close run poll of 1954

    In 1966 Holt won in a landslide.. beat Calwell in a wave of fear,in which the DLP actually showed a TV ad with..”boat people” this time however the Vietcong… coming down to invade .many Australians are highly zenophobic and stupid…they bought the message(only to turn on Holt and his successors in the years ahead as Vietnam and Conscription turned the nation around

    but the Libs are masters at it…but the prospect of an endless war in the Middle East may come through…today for example Tom Elliot a conservative shock jock(but not too bad)in the Sun called for an end to the Irag commitment,and if there are casualties the tide will turn

  7. I too think the ALP primary vote of 34% is a crock. It just doesn’t ring true.
    I think they’ve been deliberately understating it ON PURPOSE since the budget.
    Everybody else has it at 37-38+ yet Newspoll have it at 34-35.
    I think the word has come down on high to FIX IT because at this stage of the game no one can prove or disprove the figures unless there is an election. And anyway, I don’t believe a word published by this organization, their track record AROUND THE ENGLISH SPEAKING WORLD speaks for itself.

  8. It’s true that Newspoll has had Labor tracking 1.3% below the BludgerTrack trend since the budget. However, it was also tracking 1.1% below before it. Throughout, they’ve had the Greens 1.3% high. Therein lies Newspoll’s real bias – away from Labor, but towards the Greens. It’s been like this since they bumped the Greens up the batting order on their voting intention question in 2007. Before then, respondents were directed to choose Labor, Liberal/National or “other”, and only if you chose “other” did you get a follow-up list with the Greens on it. Including the Greens up front means they get picked by floating left-wingers who might otherwise have gone for Labor (and not including them has the opposite effect).

  9. Morning all. At this point I think we have to say that IS threats to kill western civilians abroad are real and not made up. The question is how to respond.

    Of course, as with quite a few christian fundamentalists, moslem ones often have dubious pasts.

    These terrorist groups rely on publicity, for their own recruiting as well as affecting their enemy. One thing we could do is stop giving them so much publicity. All those videos should be removed from social media.

  10. Welcome to the Australia of Tony Abbott.

    [Three fans ‘humiliated’ by police treatment at Roosters-Cowboys match

    Three men of Middle Eastern appearance were pointed out by a spectator at the Roosters-Cowboys game on Friday night because they were using their mobile phones in a way that did not match what was happening on the field, Fairfax Media understands

    They were removed by police in the 60th minute and questioned for about half an hour. The three men were so incensed they contacted lawyer Adam Houda, who will demand an apology or take civil action on the men’s behalf.

    “It was a humiliating experience,” Mr Houda said. “They are angry; they’re furious.”]

  11. Poroti

    We should not be surprised by the drone strike”. Didn’t Hezbolah sink an Israeli warship off Lebanon with a missile a few years back?

  12. Poroti

    The incident at the football game is exactly the response the terrorists are hoping for. The more angry young middle eastern men there are, the more potential recruits they have, and the less able we are to send a united response. This issue calls for political leadership, not grandstanding and fear mongering.

    Sadly, this political situation is reciprocal. Just as the IS is a political gift for Tony Abbott, scaring his right wing-nut supporters, Tony Abbott is a political gift to the IS, his overreactions scaring more young men into their camp, giving them strength, and a target to fight.

    Time to stop playing the Khaki card, and asking why are so many young muslim men disenchanted, both is Sydney and in Syria?

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    I suppose this is what Abbott means by “minor inconvenience”.
    The IS creation is like a Frankenstein monster.
    Five unanswered questions from the counter-terrorism raids.
    Would this guy pass muster to be labelled a terrorist? Not when you see his photo.
    Interesting. Newman warns Abbott on the new terror laws.
    Michelle Grattan on IS’s fatwa.
    Paul Bongiorno – Abbott’s war talk goes on the road.
    Stephen Koukoulas says complacency masks a severe risk to our economy.
    I’d love to see the little prat suffer over this. And Credlin’s right in the middle of it.

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Rather than be “embarrassed” over the pre-war WMD claims Howard should be disgusted over how Bush’s uncontrolled henchmen did him (and us) over,
    Andrew Wilkie comes out even stronger!
    Julian Burnside says the Frances Abbott whistleblower should be thanked rather than punished.
    Maybe the Woolies/Coles duopoly will come off second best for a change.
    Negative gearing pops up again.
    Greg Jericho gives us a very good breakdown of where employment, etc is going.
    How the integrity of the TURC is being destroyed.
    Best and worst gowns from the Brownlow red carpet.
    Health spending growth rate is at a 30-year low. Unsustainable Mr Dutton?
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.

  15. Socrates

    It is why Abbott is so dangerous. Once let out of the box this sort of crap doesn’t go away for years if ever. But hey, social cohesion is far less important than helping boost Abbott’s political career 🙁

  16. Why does Abbott gain from clamping down on civil liberties even more than Howard did? Howard had an easier time pushing those amendments..

    I find it hard to believe the more libertarian Liberals allowing these through. If there is indeed a threat, how much more lives will be saved through these changes?

    Or is this all in a bid to gain votes through scaremongering and distraction?

  17. Thanks BK. A neat summary as always. There are quite a few economic risks for us on the horizon which our leaders will wish to distract us from. So I do not expect us to see an end to security theatre any time soon. Change tactics please, Mr Shorten.

    Have a good day all.

  18. Newspoll table, pdf & image versions
    [Tony Abbott earns approval on security, Newspoll shows
    The Australian September 23, 2014 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson
    Bureau Chief

    UPPORT for the Coalition has risen to a five-month high as voters show their approval of Tony Abbott’s handling of national ­security matters, with a six-point leap in the Prime Minister’s ­personal satisfaction rating taking it to the highest level since ­November.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, reveals the government’s primary vote has climbed two points to 41 per cent while Labor dropped one point to 34 per cent. It is the Coalition’s highest level of support since April — before its poorly received budget sent its core vote tumbling as low as 35 per cent — but still below the 45.6 per cent achieved when it won the election last year.

    The surge in support for the Greens in the previous Newspoll was not sustained in the past fortnight, with a three-point drop to 11 per cent. Support for “others”, which include minor parties and independents, rose two points to 14 per cent.

    Based on preference flows at the last election, the Coalition has narrowed the two-party-preferred gap although Labor is still ahead by 51 per cent to 49 per cent. Labor has been ahead in two-party terms for 11 consecutive Newspoll surveys.]
    [Three out of four to Abbott and Coalition
    The Australian September 23, 2014 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson
    Bureau Chief

    TONY Abbott is Mr 41 per cent.

    Compared to where he and the government were barely a month or two ago, the Coalition will be delighted.

    Today’s Newspoll shows the Prime Minister and his government now lead Labor and Bill Shorten on three of the four regular measures taken by Newspoll.

    Just six weeks ago, when the anniversary of the first year in power was reached, the government was behind on every measure.]

  19. [It’s true that Newspoll has had Labor tracking 1.3% below the BludgerTrack trend since the budget. However, it was also tracking 1.1% below before it. Throughout, they’ve had the Greens 1.3% high. Therein lies Newspoll’s real bias – away from Labor, but towards the Greens. It’s been like this since they bumped the Greens up the batting order on their voting intention question in 2007. ]

    Blah, blah, blah.

    Stop trying to bring facts into this argument.

  20. IO price drops below USD80/ tonne CFR China ports…lowest since 2009 and down 40% so far this year. If this is prolonged, there will be mine closures (again) in WA.

  21. [poroti

    Welcome to the Australia of Tony Abbott.

    Three men of Middle Eastern appearance were pointed out by a spectator at the Roosters-Cowboys game on Friday night because they were using their mobile phones in a way that did not match what was happening on the field, Fairfax Media understands]

    Something similar happened on a Tigerair plane when an innocent person was removed by police because a fellow passenger saw something in a notebook.

    Abbott’s “Team Oz” is becoming like a totalitarian regime where everyone is taught to be suspicious of everyone else.


    Gee they do great research over at the Menzies Research Centre/The Australian don’t they. he ignores the fact that NZ has a broad carbon price /ETS and tight environmental policies.

    the loons posting after his article – the Oz is on the ‘science in unsettled’ meme again – make some of the right wing loons (& in the interests of bipartisanship I include a few tribal labor supporters in that category) here look quite sane.

  23. Liberal staffer perhaps should have been vetted more closely

    [VICTORIAN Liberal leader-in-waiting Matthew Guy suffered a serious blow to his authority yesterday after his most senior ­adviser was exposed as a sexual predator who had harassed a 15-year-old schoolgirl with suggestive emails and inappropriate touching.

    Mr Guy’s planning adviser, Marc Boxer, quit his ministerial office position after The Australian detailed the findings of an independent tribunal showing a series of inappropriate, sexually based emails Mr Boxer had sent in his previous teaching career.

    Mr Boxer’s resignation marks the first sex scandal in the four-year-old government as it fights to win the November 29 election.

    The resignation will spark questions about what Mr Guy knew — and when — given Mr Boxer was struck off as a teacher a decade ago over his predatory behaviour and evidence of the sex scandal was freely available on the public record. Mr Guy is considered the man most likely to replace Premier Denis Napthine if the Coalition loses office in November or if Dr Napthine stands down mid-term after winning.

    Mr Boxer was struck off as a teacher in 2004 after an email trail and other evidence showed he had been effectively courting the 15-year-old student. He was twice her age. An independent tribunal found that Mr Boxer, now aged in his 40s, had emailed the schoolgirl asking “How quickly do you want me to remove all articles of clothing?” It found he had touched her on the bottom while pulling up her gym pants.

    The inquiry heard evidence that Mr Boxer had put his hands down her gym pants and that the teacher admitted this may have occurred because “at that time he was a tactile person with students”.]

    @Leroy_Lynch: Senior advisor’s sex scandal exposes key Victorian Liberal Minister Matthew Guy #springst

  24. [BK

    Interesting. Newman warns Abbott on the new terror laws. ]

    From the article:

    [Having learnt his lesson the hard way, Queensland Premier Campbell Newman is urging Prime Minister Tony Abbott to think about how he sells the Commonwealth’s new counter-terrorism laws.

    In a speech to the federal parliament on Monday, Mr Abbott said Australians may see their freedoms restricted under new legislation.

    But Mr Newman, whose own government took a hardline approach to dealing with organised crime gangs and suffered a backlash in the polls as a result, said Mr Abbott needed to tread carefully.

    “I think that any changes to the laws relating to the current disturbing situation need to be justified to the Queensland and Australian community and I would urge that that happen,” he said.]

  25. citizen

    [Abbott’s “Team Oz” is becoming like a totalitarian regime where everyone is taught to be suspicious of everyone else]
    It certainly tells you society is full of people who would gladly become a repressive regime’s “little helpers” and informers.

  26. The Daily Telegraph’s theatre of the absurd campaign continues this morning.

    Youse will remember that Saturday’s headline involved convicted Muslim terrorists in Goulbourn Supermax prison plotting attacks using secret codes.

    It sounds like the kind of story that *may* have had a grain of truth to it, buried somewhere deep in the centre of an otherwise fluffy story.

    When you consider the logic of it all the story comes apart. If it was a Secret Code, how did the Daily Telegraph know about it?

    Why didn’t the prison authorities deprive the prisoner of visitation rights (or lock them in solitary) until they could get a code specialist in from ASIO (or wherever) to decode the messages and then run a counter-espionage operation, which might have rounded up dozens of zombie jihadis who had thought their communications were secret?

    Next, on Sunday the Telegraph took a disturbance among ALL prisoners, not just Muslims, in the *general* prison, and turned it into “Jihadis rioting”. There were stock photos of prison warders in riot gear, and the usual run of swarthy mug shots as illustrations. The headline was something like “Jihadi Outbreak” or something equally idiotic.

    It turns out this story also had a *grain* of truth to it to: the original disturbance, over a withdrawl-of-privileges matter that involed an earlier incident where a non-Muslim prisoner had verbally abused a guard. Muslim prisoners were involved in the ensuing disturbance, but so were “Christian” prisoners (as was ultimately admitted towards the end of the article).

    So now we come to today…

    Today’s Telegraph headline screamed “LUCAS FRIGHT”, a pun on the words “Lucas Heights”, which is the site of ANSTO’s nuclear research reactor. Apparently there had been an incident yesterday afternoon where a couple of cop cars had stopped a car full of Muslim-looking men, with some children accompanying them, and questioned them.

    This is the lead-in to the story:

    Group of five men released after police called to area near Lucas Heights nuclear reactor

    A GROUP of men triggered a security scare at Sydney’s Lucas Heights nuclear reactor yesterday after two vehicles parked about 100m from the front security gate.

    The five adults, who were with two children, were interviewed by NSW and federal police for about 20 minutes after they were spotted near the highly sensitive site at 5.15pm.

    Police quizzed the men about their movements, taking down particulars from each of them and checking their identifications.

    After the discussions, the men were allowed to go without charge, with police warning them that Lucas Heights is a protected Commonwealth facility controlled by the Australian Nuclear Science And Technology Organisation.

    Note use of the word “spotted”, as if the men had been trying to conceal themselves. Also important is the “warning” they received, without any discussion of the context.

    (For the record, I have toured the Lucas Heights site. I had to fill in a form and go through some kind of security check, too. And yes, when we arrived we were put into a bus with the rest of the tourists, a Federal Police officer got on the bus and before we entered the premises we were also – quite sternly – “warned” not to stray from the tour group, with all kinds of terrible consequences being listed if we did.)

    It happens that I was listening to 2GB at the time this was going on (as is my self-flagellating custom). A caller phoned in to Luke Grant (he of ICAC dody dealings fame) and told Grant that the police were in attendance. It was not at “5.15” as the story says, but at 3.15. Oh well, let’s not get a 2 hour timing error get in the way…

    The salient fact is that nothing happened.

    It was a perfectly innocent incident and the Muslim men were let go. It seems a member of the public had dobbed them for just (a) being Muslim and (b) being near Lucas Heights (to whit, 100 metres away from the gate).

    Today’s Daily Telegraph headline was, literally, about NOTHING.

    From Saturday to today, we have gone from a story with (perhaps) a grain of truth in it (Muslim prisoners plotting terror within Supermax walls), to a disturbance in the same jail (with Muslims fingered as the trouble-makers, when this was not true), to ABSOLUTELY NOTHING happening, but still receiving front page “WAR!” headline prominence.

    We all know the Daily Telegraph is a shit sheet, more attuned to sensation and celebrity than to actual news, but even for them the last few days’ worth of headlines have been a disgrace to the journalism profession. Naturally ABC-24 News Breakfast this morning took up the story for a while, using suitably “concerned” looking faces. But even they couldn’t keep it up for long and dropped the story by the second half of the program.

    A campaign is being run by (at least) the Daily Telegraph to vilify Muslims, no matter whether there is any truth in the story or not. That is clear as a bell.

    Welcome to Tony Abbott’s Australia, where Our Leader soothes the feelings of “Muslim leaders”, telling them he is their friend, wants them as part of his ridiculous “Team Australia” etc., while his patrons and fellow travellers over at News Ltd. run a disgusting vilification and heckling campaign against the same group of people. It appears designed to whip up both outrage in the “general” population and to provoke some kind of reaction from the Muslim section of the population. When something finally happens, there will be hell to pay.

    The Daily Telegraph NEVER runs a story that is disadvantageous to Abbott, or that does not have his (or his offices’) tacit approval. This is an example of just that – “good cop, bad cop” caper – a deliberate program of social destabilization that can only end in tears and social unrest. My rule of thumb is that if it’s in the Daily Telegraph, it’s what Abbott is really thinking. And what he is thinking at the moment is not good.

    The only question that remains is just WHEN the public will wake up to this confected campaign, and WHEN some common sense will be restored to the way security and general social matters are being reported?

    Probably never, I guess.

  27. Morning all

    Thanks BK and others for today’s offerings.

    As per usual, radio news reports start off with either Abbott, Senator Brandis, Senator Johnston and Ms Bishop commenting on security and war.

  28. Although I should add that a close friend works in the administrative area of a local shopping centre in the nothern suburbs. She has received three calls from the same woman making a complaint about a store which sells halel meat. Apparently this is a security risk This shopping complex was also the subject of a bomb scare recently.

  29. Good tweet by Mr Denmore

    [Have I got this right? ‘We must sacrifice our freedoms to defeat the terror that would rob us of our freedoms.’ #auspol]

  30. I made a point of watching Q&A last night. The winners were the audience and the runners-up the two ladies. Dreyfus and Keenan were in a tie for fourth, just outside the money. Ludlam was asleep.

Comments Page 2 of 24
1 2 3 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *