Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll records a solid shift in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings in the wake of recent war and terrorism talk, although the yield on voting intention is rather slight.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor leading 51-49, which is down a point on last time and equal with the time before (and also the same as the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday). Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up two), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (down three on last time, back to where they were the time before). Tony Abbott has enjoyed a big hike in his personal ratings, up six on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 52%, and he has gained a 41-37 lead on preferred prime minister after being level at 37-37 last time. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval 43%. Hat-tip to GhostWhoVotes, and of course The Australian.

Also out today was the regularly fortnightly Morgan poll, covering a sample of 2922 respondents from two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling. This recorded next to no change for the major parties on the primary vote – the Coalition on 38.5% and Labor on 37.5%, both up half a point on last fortnight – but has the minor parties moving in accordance with recent trends, the Greens being up 1.5% to 12% and Palmer United being down half a point to 4%. The previous poll was the only one recently published which failed to record a lift for the Greens, no doubt because half the survey period predated the bipartisan commitment to send military forces to Iraq. Labor gains half a point on both the respondent-allocated and previous election measures of two-party preferred, respectively leading 54.5-45.5 and 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 53-47 to Labor, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens down one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 4%. Also featured is a biannual gauge of attributes of the various parties, recording little change for Labor since March apart from a six point drop on “clear about what they stand for”, while the Liberal Party has weakened across the board, particularly with respect to “keeps its promises” (down nine points), “divided” (up eight points) and “looks after the interests of working people” (down six points). The poll adds further to a somewhat confusing picture on the public attitudes to the Iraq commitment, with 52% expressing approval for sending military personnel versus 34% disapproval. However, 51% say doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, versus only 15% for more safe. Questions on industrial relations laws indicate broad satisfaction with the status quo, 30% saying current laws balance the interests of employers and workers, and a fairly even 23% and 17% believing they favour employers and workers respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,151 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [Have I got this right? ‘We must sacrifice our freedoms to defeat the terror that would rob us of our freedoms.’ #auspol]

    It’s a mutual circle jerk. If the Zombie Death Cult Jihadis of ISIS did not exist, Abbott would have had to invent them.

    To a certain extent they ARE being invented, with innocent Muslim people going about their business being dobbed-on, harassed and vilified.

    Absolutely no good can come of this. None. If an incident occurs – and the provoking going on in the media seems designed to achieve this outcome – we know who will be blamed.

    It’s a self-justifying, self-amplifying gutter campaign to cause public unrest.

    And all because Abbott, the man who deludes himself into thinking he and his government are loved by “his people”, is behind in the polls.

    His vanity will wreck Australia, just as he has wrecked, or tried to wreck every other person or institution he has come across, from St. Ignatius Riverview, to the seminary and now to the role of governance in Australia.

  3. I think it’s an Abbottism. This smells the same as the so-called deficit levy that wasn’t a tax that Abbott also personally saw fit to front for. If it’s unpalatable and nonsensical, Abbott doesn’t believe there’s anyone better to sell it than himself.

  4. victoria

    Watch it. A different view from anything else that has been said on the MSM.

    It seems to have inspired Tim Wilson to give warning to the government on its laws this morning

  5. Our esteemed Human Rights Commissioner finally says something – and it sounds wishy washy.

    [Wilson said he was “calm” about the mooted no-go zone provision so long as it was done in a way that did not victimise one section of the community.

    But he issued a broader call for caution as the parliament prepared to consider a raft of changes.

    “Obviously security of the person is absolutely essential in making sure that we can preserve our rights and freedoms but laws should not become too restrictive so we don’t end up trading off security for freedom,” Wilson told Guardian Australia.

    He said security powers should “be put under public and parliamentary scrutiny to make sure we get the balance right”. The resulting legislation “should have sunset clauses and review clauses to make sure that if there is any surrender of freedoms for security that it is only ever temporary”.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/23/tim-wilson-warns-against-trading-liberties-for-security-terrorism-threats

  6. I should also add that my friend has advised me that their shopping complex has been briefed on the heightened security risks. She is of fhe view that there are genuine concerns being played out, but is of the view that the govt is milking it for all its worth for political reasons. She is concerned that the racist genie will be let out of the bottle and things could get rather nasty.

  9. @political_alert: PUP leader @CliveFPalmer will hold a press conference at 9.45am to discuss the Social Services and Other Legislation Amendment #auspol

  10. [Three men of Middle Eastern appearance were pointed out by a spectator at the Roosters-Cowboys game on Friday night because they were using their mobile phones in a way that did not match what was happening on the field,]

    Ummm…. what?

  12. Would this fellow qualify as a terrorist under our legislation?

    [A decorated Iraq war veteran who scaled a fence on Friday night and got into the White House had more than 800 rounds of ammunition in his car and was arrested in July with a sniper rifle and a map marking the executive mansion, a federal prosecutor says.

    Omar Gonzalez, 42, was also stopped, but not arrested, in August when walking by the White House with a hatchet in his waistband, federal prosecutor David Mudd told a federal judge.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-23/white-house-intruder-had-800-rounds-and-machete-in-his-car/5761986

  13. Gareth Gareth Evans weighs in to the IS* issue with some perceptive analysis!sans Jingoism

    [CANBERRA – There is a long history of misconceived and over-reaching foreign military intervention in the Middle East, and it is to be hoped that US President Barack Obama’s decision to wage war against the Islamic State will not prove to be another. No terrorist group more richly deserves to be destroyed outright than these marauding, genocidal jihadists. But as the US-led mission is currently conceived and described, it is not clear whether its objectives are achievable at acceptable costs in terms of time, money, and lives.
    The basic problem is that the Islamic State’s territorial gains are being approached from three completely different perspectives, demanding three different types of operational responses. There is the humanitarian mission to protect civilian populations in Iraq and Syria from mass-atrocity crimes. There is the need to protect other states’ citizens from Islamic State terrorism. And there is the desire to restore states’ integrity and stability in the region.
    ]

    Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/gareth-evans-warns-that-the-west-s-military-strategy-cannot-possibly-meet-all-of-its-objectives#OYBRAJgE4IOIe33v.99

  14. 110
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, September 23, 2014 at 9:38 am | PERMALINK
    Three men of Middle Eastern appearance were pointed out by a spectator at the Roosters-Cowboys game on Friday night because they were using their mobile phones in a way that did not match what was happening on the field,

    [Ummm…. what?]

    Yep the racist genie being let out

  21. “@political_alert: Greens Senator Scott Ludlam will comment on the government’s proposed terror laws and surveillance legislation at 10.30am #auspol”

  22. victoria

    [Yep the racist genie being let out]

    So if I’m in a movie theatre and a group of teenagers start yacking on their mobile phones (my pet hate)… I only call the police if they’re of “Middle Eastern appearance”. After all, they’re using their mobile phones in a way that does not match what’s happening on the screen.

  26. kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, September 23, 2014 at 10:11 am | PERMALINK
    victoria

    Yep the racist genie being let out

    [So if I’m in a movie theatre and a group of teenagers start yacking on their mobile phones (my pet hate)… I only call the police if they’re of “Middle Eastern appearance”. After all, they’re using their mobile phones in a way that does not match what’s happening on the screen.]

    You are a fast learner…

  29. “@mikejanda: Aussie miners whacked again in early trade. Banks down again also but pretty modest falls so far. Cpl of defensives (Telstra, Wesfarmers up)”

  31. [You are a fast learner…]

    I have to think fast to be a member of Team Australia, victoria. It doesn’t help to think too hard about things – just react.

  34. citizen@88

    poroti

    Welcome to the Australia of Tony Abbott.

    Three men of Middle Eastern appearance were pointed out by a spectator at the Roosters-Cowboys game on Friday night because they were using their mobile phones in a way that did not match what was happening on the field, Fairfax Media understands


    Something similar happened on a Tigerair plane when an innocent person was removed by police because a fellow passenger saw something in a notebook.

    Abbott’s “Team Oz” is becoming like a totalitarian regime where everyone is taught to be suspicious of everyone else.

    Has anyone not gone to a game before while having a lot of things on your mind and selfishly try to do a lot of business in the midst of the crowd while watching the game?

    It’s silly, a distraction to others in the crowd and seriously a mood killer.

    But to be treated like criminals is preposterous.

  35. It’s time for the AFP to provide an identikit pic so that we can recognise “middle eastern appearance” when we see it.

    Should I only look for dark hair, eyebrows in a line above the eyes, or full beards? Or swarthy skin? Or young men with mobiles? I need help here.
    :/

  37. [102
    victoria

    briefly

    I missed qanda last night. Should i bother with it today?]

    I thought it was ok….considering Q&A is usually just rubbish…

  39. victoria

    I found QandA very interesting. Got a lot of info on Muslim attitudes to ‘the terror’ – the two women got most of the questions. The Lib minister was left floundering a bit, exposed. I think the other two could have said more but were mostly left out of the conversation.

  40. Raaraa

    [It’s silly, a distraction to others in the crowd and seriously a mood killer.

    But to be treated like criminals is preposterous.]

    They were of “Middle Eastern appearance”, so they had it coming. Apparently.

  45. “@ABCNews24: AMA President: Health care expenditure is not out of control in this country #auspol”

    Closest the AMA has come to saying the LNP is lying so far.

  47. I detect a hardening of the AMA attitude against Abbott policy here.

    Palmer presser earlier to confirm he is going to stand up for the poor and vulnerable on economic grounds that its bad to take demand out of the economy.

    Things are looking grim for the LNP

  48. My BIL rang this morning to say the Royal Melbourne Hospital has been “napthined”. Waited well over 8 hours in emergency for a respiratory bed for his wife, because Hosp only has 6 respiratory care beds, so someone had to leave (die?) to make room for her. He said the staff are absolutely flat out.

  50. Lizzie

    Yep me too. I would have said making Adam Goodes Australian of the year but that was an independent committee put in place by Labor.

    So nothing.

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