Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll records a solid shift in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings in the wake of recent war and terrorism talk, although the yield on voting intention is rather slight.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor leading 51-49, which is down a point on last time and equal with the time before (and also the same as the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday). Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up two), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (down three on last time, back to where they were the time before). Tony Abbott has enjoyed a big hike in his personal ratings, up six on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 52%, and he has gained a 41-37 lead on preferred prime minister after being level at 37-37 last time. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval 43%. Hat-tip to GhostWhoVotes, and of course The Australian.

Also out today was the regularly fortnightly Morgan poll, covering a sample of 2922 respondents from two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling. This recorded next to no change for the major parties on the primary vote – the Coalition on 38.5% and Labor on 37.5%, both up half a point on last fortnight – but has the minor parties moving in accordance with recent trends, the Greens being up 1.5% to 12% and Palmer United being down half a point to 4%. The previous poll was the only one recently published which failed to record a lift for the Greens, no doubt because half the survey period predated the bipartisan commitment to send military forces to Iraq. Labor gains half a point on both the respondent-allocated and previous election measures of two-party preferred, respectively leading 54.5-45.5 and 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 53-47 to Labor, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens down one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 4%. Also featured is a biannual gauge of attributes of the various parties, recording little change for Labor since March apart from a six point drop on “clear about what they stand for”, while the Liberal Party has weakened across the board, particularly with respect to “keeps its promises” (down nine points), “divided” (up eight points) and “looks after the interests of working people” (down six points). The poll adds further to a somewhat confusing picture on the public attitudes to the Iraq commitment, with 52% expressing approval for sending military personnel versus 34% disapproval. However, 51% say doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, versus only 15% for more safe. Questions on industrial relations laws indicate broad satisfaction with the status quo, 30% saying current laws balance the interests of employers and workers, and a fairly even 23% and 17% believing they favour employers and workers respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,151 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Briefly
    I think if you read my post you will see that i did specifically mention the importance of facial expression in western (and Asian) social interaction.

  2. Meanwhile, progress is being made in other countries:

    500km/hour Maglev, first successful public trials:
    http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/maglev-train-reaches-500-kmhour-during-first-public-test

    DirectTV 4K will be available by end of year:
    http://www.satellitetoday.com/regional/2014/09/22/directv-to-begin-4k-broadcasts-this-year/

    Great Works Internet in the USA, will be bringing 1Gbps Internet to portions of South Portland:
    http://bangordailynews.com/2014/09/22/business/gwi-beats-out-maine-fiber-co-for-south-portland-municipal-fiber-contract/

    (1Gbps for $70US, $200US per month for business).

    Same company did a contract for the state of Maine:
    http://bangordailynews.com/2014/08/09/news/midcoast/broadband-internet-partnership-between-private-public-hoped-to-speed-rockport-village-growth/?ref=inline

    Other news is that some cable companies still sticking with Cable, but going to the new standard: DOCSIS 3.1.

  3. Bemused

    This time I am with Puff. Obviously modesty dressing for women is about not giving me the hots.

    Similarly I do not see too many men wearing codpieces, presumably so as not to give women and gay men the hots.

  4. Have we really reached a point where we’re seriously discussing laws telling people how to dress?

    And Labor is going to shepherd through security laws allowing ASIO to spy on all of us with no oversight and exonerating the secret police from virtually all liability for anything they do short of actually killing and torturing people?

    Meanwhile we’re blowing up the Middle East again and people are surprised that people from the Middle East aren’t huge fans of ours.

    At the risk of sounding like a Bolt blog commentator, what is happening in this country?

  5. Actually why do we not just ban religion!!!!!!!

    We could get rid of burkas, crosses, silly hats, turbans, wicca symbols – the whole damn lot.

  6. [ABC News 24 ‏@ABCNews24 3m
    Victoria Police: AFP officer is in a serious but stable condition with knife wounds to his neck, stomach and head #endeavourhills]

  7. [Actually why do we not just ban religion!!!!!!!]
    If we’re banning burqas we had better ban nuns’ habits. I would hate to think we are just targeting one minority group rather than applying the law equally to all people.

  8. Lizzie

    Yes I guess the any “additions” to the codpiece would hide inadeqacies.

    How WOULD out modern men go at wearing elizabethan dress. there would be a market for “padding”

  9. [Should a doctor working in an Emergency Department be allowed to wear a burqa while they are seeing patients?]
    Lawyers have to deal with the opposite a lot of the time – wearing silly robes because that’s what tradition requires. It’s annoying but not a huge infringement of my human rights that I can’t wear what I want to work.

    Of course millions of Australians wear a uniform of sorts, even if it’s a suit, to work.

  10. zoomster

    🙂 You highlight the point I was making. My attempt at satire obviously did not come across as I intended in the last bit. I will keep the serious away from the satire in future.

  11. Diogenes@716

    Hypothetical

    Should a doctor working in an Emergency Department be allowed to wear a burqa while they are seeing patients?

    Of course not.

    As far as I am aware, staff are issued appropriate clothing for their job and it should be worn.

  12. To repeat myself, banning burqas or making a big fuss about them is a sure fire way to increase their popularuty. In any case I rarely see them, although hijabs are fairly common.

    Basically, the rule for burqas, to the xtent that we need them, should be as for motor bike helments. You can’t wear them on your passport or drivers’ licence photo or when you go into the bank. Burqa wearers or mitor bike riders should have no problem with those limitations.

  13. He probably got sick of the Seinfeld Hellllo Newman jokes.

    [The terror suspect shot dead by a Victoria police officer outside Endeavour Hills police station is 18-year-old Numan Haider.
    ]

  14. Diogenes@722

    bemused

    We aren’t given uniforms. I think the guidelines probably say neat or something.

    I recall Drs wearing white coats.

    I believe ties are a major carrier of bugs so they should be scrapped.

  15. citizen@694

    [ Naked people have little or no influence in society. How many important people have you seen naked? ]

    You mean other than those that entrusted their naked “selfies” to iCloud?

  16. Once again we are seeing Labor abdicate its responsibility to the Australian people on national security issues.

    As the main opposition party the job of the ALP includes placing a check on the government’s power. Instead, no doubt out of craven fear about polling, they are going to rubber stamp anything and everything that the Libs come up with.

    While the US and Europe is moving in the other direction on issues like governments spying on citizens, we are introducing crazy new powers. We are putting in place punitive laws which will muzzle the press. We will make it illegal to go to certain places and reverse the onus of proof. People can already be ‘disappeared’ without charge for periods of time, now those doing the ‘disappearing’ will be free from liability for almost everything they do.

    And where is Labor during this right wing role playing fantasy? Cowering in the corner trying not to be noticed by anyone.

    Gutless.

  17. “@joshgnosis: Shareholder wondering if Telstra can get more value out of the government for the copper now. Compares it to selling a used car.”

  18. Steve777@724

    To repeat myself, banning burqas or making a big fuss about them is a sure fire way to increase their popularuty. In any case I rarely see them, although hijabs are fairly common.

    Basically, the rule for burqas, to the xtent that we need them, should be as for motor bike helments. You can’t wear them on your passport or drivers’ licence photo or when you go into the bank. Burqa wearers or mitor bike riders should have no problem with those limitations.

    Well if it is good enough for a Pastafarian to have to remove his religious head covering for a licence photograph, it should be good enough for all other religious garb.

  19. Re the shooting, unless the part about him producing a knife and commencing to stab two police officers in a police station is totally false, it’s really not at all surprising that he was shot.

    People need to have the maturity to separate that from the question of whether he was a ‘terrorist’.

    This is all going splendidly for the government, with the eager help of the Murdoch press.

  20. Fran Barlow@730

    There were no specific threats made


    And the response was exactly one you’d expect from someone with no specific intelligence,

    Ummmm well maybe no credible threats to Abbott, but if reports are correct, sticking a knife into a couple of cops is rather threatening to said cops.

  21. What a great way to explain Malcolm Turnbull:

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 5m

    Shareholder wondering if Telstra can get more value out of the government for the copper now. Compares it to selling a used car.

  22. One very strange thing about this shooting is that it took place in a car park – why were the police interviewing a suspect in a car park?

  23. Patrick

    Being close enough to stab the officer in the “head, neck and stomach” suggests that he was attacking repeatedly. Can hardly blame the other officer for taking drastic action.

  24. [Being close enough to stab the officer in the “head, neck and stomach” suggests that he was attacking repeatedly. Can hardly blame the other officer for taking drastic action.]
    I agree. It sounds tolerably clear that the intention was to kill one or both police, and I have no problem with the police shooting him if that was the case.

  25. Bemused,
    I do not have a problem with men and i refuse to be labelled as such.

    Withdraw that slur immediately.

    William, I am offended and want you to intervene in this case. I should be able to discuss women’s equality and safety without being targetted for abuse and personal put-downs. If you want any women at all on your blog, I suggest you do something.

    BTW, how is the gender balance going here, as I do not feel comfortable here anymore.

  26. “@bengrubb: Senator Brandis is stonewalling @SenatorLudlam by just reading out legislation. Not explaining what the laws mean. Law is “clear’. As mud.”

  27. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@741

    Bemused,
    I do not have a problem with men and i refuse to be labelled as such.

    Withdraw that slur immediately.

    William, I am offended and want you to intervene in this case. I should be able to discuss women’s equality and safety without being targetted for abuse and personal put-downs. If you want any women at all on your blog, I suggest you do something.

    BTW, how is the gender balance going here, as I do not feel comfortable here anymore.

    FWIW, I am entirely supportive of women’s equality and safety.

  28. Libertarian Unionist@740

    As far as I am aware


    I think you’ve consistently shown yourself to be pretty damn unaware, bemused

    Maybe it is all the morphine I was dosed up on when in A&E and later in a ward, but that is what I recall doctors wearing. Nurses wore uniforms. In and around the operating theatre everyone wore these sort of overall things and were pretty well covered.

  29. bemused

    [ FWIW, I am entirely supportive of women’s equality and safety. ]

    You have demonstrated many times, and again here today, that you don’t even understand the issues.

    For what it’s worth to William (not much, I guess), I support Puff here – bemused is a repeat offender who could do with being sin-binned for a while.

  30. On the facts that have emerged to date, it appears that a deranged young man attacked police officers with a deadly weapon during the course of an apparently informal interview (i.e. In the car park). If that is the case, the police were entitled to use proportionate force to defend themselves. So the use of a gun on the part of the police officer is regretable but probably appropriate in the circumstances.

    This young man may have latched on to fantasies about the ‘Islamic State’, I suppose to give him some sense of purpose and importance. For others, it might be gangs, race hate or conspiracy theories.

    I don’t think that there are any security implications, certainly no cause to change our laws.

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