BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Another placid week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, suggesting a new equilibrium has been struck between the government’s budget disaster and MH17 recovery.

The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings, which serves as a sad reminder that in the past we would have expected Nielsen to come due this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  1. Retweeted by Richard Chirgwin
    Daniel Hurst ‏@danielhurstbne 24m

    #TeamAustralia Abbott suggests “for some people that means going out & striving that little bit harder to get a job”:

  3. Some more cheerful news

    [News Corp threatens ‘action’ over leaked accounts

    Operating losses at The Australian widened from $19.3 million to ­$27.1 million against a budgeted loss of $7.56 million, according to the last weekly internal operating accounts for 2012-13. Revenue tumbled from $135 million to $108 million, versus a budgeted $133 million.

    In addition the company’s national digital services suffered losses of $5.1 million, although these were slightly down from a ­$7.44 million loss a year earlier.

    The accounts were compiled less than two months before then-News Corp chief executive Kim Williams was ousted…]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/news-corp-threatens-8216action8217-over-leaked-accounts-20140821-106j2d.html#ixzz3Ayu6QJnj

  4. The Chinese Government uses targetted trade punishments to make its points.

    It trashed the Philippines banana industry by closing banana imports when the Philippines Government renamed some bit of disputed water the ‘West Philippines Sea.’

    ATM, China would not want a disruption to the free flow of iron ore and coal from Australia. While sets of figures abound, there is a reason to believe that the Chinese Government is having considerable difficulty riding the tiger involved in transmuting the chinese economy into a consumer enconomy. Right now it does not suit the Chinese Government to turn our tap off.

    But the option to trash the Australian economy at a moment’s notice sits there and is growing all the time.

    Palmer realized that he had erred in his use of the term ‘the Chinese’ because the term means ‘all Chinese’. He has, sensibly, resiled from the essentially racist language he used and has clarified his real meaning.

    Meanwhile, I would like some clarification from the Coalition Government.

    Are we ‘standing up’ to China or are we sucking up to them?

  6. Boerwar

    [Revenue tumbled from $135 million to $108 ]
    I too somehow missed all the “Revenue Falls off a Cliff” and “Sales collapse” headlines in the business section of the GG following their 20% drop in revenue. 🙂

  7. Mar’n points out that Swan was inept and deceitful.

    Kinda figured that out already.

    [ In effect, the Ferguson critique destroys the Labor folklore of a brave ALP government being unfairly assaulted by a bunch of multinational corporations.

    “We lost the mining tax dispute not because of the mining industry’s response but because we created the mess,” Mr Ferguson said.]

  8. [ News Corp threatens ‘action’ over leaked accounts]

    Comedy coming from organisation whose legacy to journalism is widespread phone hacking etc.

  13. Sometimes Twitter produces gems.

    [‏@andrewwhiteau 6m
    2 ladies in cafe talking cheerfully in a language I don’t know when one broke into English: THAT ABBOTT I JUST WANT TO SMACK HIS BUM #straya ]

  14. Retweeted by Richard Chirgwin
    Michael West ‏@MichaelWestBiz 18m

    News has just threatened action against 7, 10, 9, FXJ & ABC for publishing its financials leaked to Crikey

  15. M’arn was joined at the hip with the mining companies. I am not saying the ALP should not have people with experience and contacts in industry sectors, but that background is point to remember in evaluating statements.

  16. “@abcnewsSydney: #BREAKING: St Mary’s Star of the Sea College in Wollongong declared safe by police after students were evacuated”

  17. [ M’arn was joined at the hip with the mining companies. I am not saying the ALP should not have people with experience and contacts in industry sectors, but that background is point to remember in evaluating statements.]

    Agreed. It does anger me that they got such a good deal over the MRRT. And now they have used their write offs and are getting to the production phase on project Abbott want to let them off whats left of it. 🙁

  18. [Shane Matthew Neave ‏@shane25873 5m
    King David Jewish School in Melbourne has received death threats, with the kids evacuated! Proves Australia has a long way to go!]

  20. imacca

    [ And now they have used their write offs and are getting to the production phase on project Abbott want to let them off whats left of it. 🙁 ]

    Plus M’arn ‘apparently’

    I hope he chokes on his 30 pieces of silver.

  21. Good news for the senior Labor figure who shall remain nameless, partly because I don’t know his name.

    [A senior figure in the Labor Party will not face criminal charges over an alleged rape dating back to the 1980s.

    Victorian police have confirmed that the allegation has been investigated but they will not be proceeding with criminal charges.

    “Investigating police sought advice from the Office of Public Prosecutions, which advised there was no reasonable prospect of conviction,” a statement from Victoria Police said.]

  23. It appears the Lying Friar himself will be launching Martin Ferguson’s book next week

    Old Jack would be on high rotation in his grave…

    [Former minister Martin Ferguson accused Mr Swan of empty promises of industry consultation over the tax which was integral to the removal of former prime minister Kevin Rudd.

    Mr Swan never intended to consult the industry on the tax, he said.

    “I felt like resigning, especially when I got the companies in and saw their reaction. It was one of disbelief,” he said about the moment he saw the policy.

    His account of the saga is detailed in ‘Triumph and Demise’, which is to be released by Prime Minister Tony Abbott next week, News Corp Australia reports.

    Mr Swan rejects the allegations saying he consulted with the industry in April 2010.]

  25. How to win friends and influence people

    [DEPUTY Chief Minister Dave Tollner has called the gay son of fellow CLP politician Gary Higgins a “pillow biter”. ]

  26. Tones hair is back to the 8-9 out of 10 black hair. Not quiet the Kevvie Andrews jet black but a lot darker than it was the other day.

  27. “@ABCNews24: Update: King David Jewish School in Melbourne declared safe by bomb squad following evacuation due to suspicious package #abcnews24”

  28. “@sarahinthesen8: After months of secrecy the High Court case will force the Abbott Govt to expose what they’ve really been up to out on the high seas”

  30. The Kouk goes for heavy ridicule.

    [Readership of The Australian newspaper has reached a record high, according to an industry report obtained by The Kouk.

    The confidential report, produced by industry leader Imakethisshitup, confirmed readership has skyrocketed despite sales of the national newspaper sinking to record lows and bird owners complaining of a shortage of suitable newsprint for the bottom of their cages.

    The source told The Kouk that the decision to give away three-quarters of all copies of The Australian at airports was a “masterstoke” that drove the readership surge.]

    http://thekouk.com/blog/exclusive-the-australian-readership-figures-reach-a-record-high.html#.U_VHr8WSyTx

  32. [All Abbott has done while in power is run campaigns, usually in the Murdoch press, against parts of our society that give him trouble, be they pensioners, the unemployed, his political opponents or, lately, Muslims. It’s a disgrace the way he tries to run Australia, pitting one sub-group against another, hoping to gain advantage, or get his way.]

    BB Well put. Abbott is the most depressing PM in my lifetime. John Howard’s dogwhistling was mild in comparison. Hockey even makes Billy McMahon look good.

  38. Victoria

    Still in Sydney, home on Sunday, first port of call doctor on Monday and then find a good physiotherapist. Unfortunately a long way to go with my bac, but improving

  44. zoidlord

    Their news reporting has fallen right off, but I would miss the shows (radio and tv) that report on science etc. Imagine if all climate reporting was screened by Rupert’s thinkers right across the media. Or medical reports had to be passed by Amigen.

  45. Just listening to Michael Ware on ABC Radio, an Australian journalist (worked for Time, CNN etc.) who was about to be beheaded by al Qaeda, but was saved at the last moment by an insurgent commander who insisted Ware was his guest.

    Asked why he went back, he said, paraphrasing, “You get a clarity, a perspective on life that you never get here. Only really important things matter after going through what I went through.”

  46. ROFL, talk about funny, the current Vodaphone CEO attacks NBN CO + Telstra:

    http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/552837/government_paying_outrageous_sums_telstra_nbn_vodafone_ceo/

    “In particular, he criticised the $20 billion over ten years that the government will be making to Telstra for NBN infrastructure. ”

    “”This is an outrageous amount of money, and we need to make sure it doesn’t create any imbalance,” Berroeta said.”

    “As another example, the CEO noted that Telstra has been receiving a large amount of public money under the Universal Service Obligation (USO). Universal service is important for reaching regional areas, he said, but it’s important to make sure that the funding does not give the incumbent telco an unfair advantage over competitors.”

  48. lizzie@33

    Kelly does name Rudd as
    “you get Rudd turning into an insurgence committed to revenge”.

    This is what his fans will not accept. His vengefulness and his leaking against the government through such acolytes as Hartcher.

    Just as the Gillard conspirators and their cultist followers here do not accept the complete folly of what occurred in June 2010. Was treachery to be rewarded with undeserved loyalty?

    Rudd had 2 serious health problems attended to within a few months of the June 2010 putsch. If he had been performing as badly as alleged, his departure for health reasons could probably have been engineered with minimal angst.

    But the plotters could not wait. Gillard reneged on a deal made ten minutes earlier.

  49. Abbott naturally tying the murder of Foley into the Australian experience. Sickening.
    “It just goes to showa” says he in that weird style of his.

  50. So Swan writes a book all about how dreadful Rudd is and then Kelly writes a book about what happened in June 2010 and you are all so sure you know what really happened in that room.

    Albo was in a room outside of the discussions.

    As Kelly said last night on Lateline there were only three people in that room in June 2010 – Rudd Gillard and Faulkner.

    The only person who has never said what went on in that room is Faulkner and he has never spoken about what went on that night.

    We can all have our assumptions but let me tell you that Faulkner never reveals anything emanating from a confidential meeting and you can bet your bottom dollar there will never be a book written about that night by Faulkner nor even a statement.

    He is an honorable man and keeps confidential discussions confidential.

    Pity there aren’t more like him in the Parliament.

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