Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

After a shaky result for the LNP in yesterday’s state poll, today’s federal follow-up brings even worse news from Queensland for the Abbott government.

Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February. It also sits well with the current reading from BludgerTrack, suggesting serious problems for the government in what may be the most important state in the country in terms of marginal seats. Primary votes and such to follow shortly. UPDATE: The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 8% for the Greens and 12% for Palmer United. The poll also finds 36% believe the Abbott government has lived up to expectations, down nine points since February, 56% believe it has performed below them, up nine points, and 4% believe it has been better, down two.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The regular weekly result from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, to 40% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, and the two main minor parties up one, the Greens to 9% and Palmer United to 6%. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred to lead 52-48. Further questions find a remarkable 43% saying the government should respond to its budget difficulties by calling an election, the breakdowns for party support suggesting this mostly bespeaks a desire to get rid of the government rather than secure the passage of its budget. Thirty-eight per cent say they would rather a new budget be introduced, including a majority among Coalition supporters. I’m not sure if the availability of only two options together with “don’t know” succeeds in capturing the full range of opinion on the subject.

Other questions find opinion on the state of the economy little changed since April, with a good rating of 37% (down one) and a poor rating of 26% (up two), but more thinking it headed in the wrong direction, up seven to 41% with “right direction” down four to 35%. Concern about job losses is up a point to 58%, with the “not at all concerned” response up three to 32%. Twenty-one per cent say the impact of the budget on employment will be good versus 49% for bad. Sixty per cent disapprove of sending troops to Iraq versus 28% who approve, and 36% believe current spending on anti-terrorism measures is about right, compared with 28% who want more and 19% who want less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  3. Cormann paused momentarily then adopted a confessional tone and whispered “I’m not a robot. It’s all been something of a pretense, you know. I had the graft, but it didn’t really work, didn’t take. I tried. I have the chip in my temple and had the cortex job, the usual procedures. But, I have a way to go.”

    As if to prove he was not yet fully robotic, Cormann allowed a sense of dejection to wrinkle his otherwise smooth brow. Then, oblivious to his remnant sensitivity, he opened his hopes up to his interlocutor: “There’s a new nano-hyper-core – NHCIII – coming on to the market. It might help. Rupert has his name down for one. They say he might run with it for another 30-40 years. There is light. It’s the dream.”

  9. [And Islamic State’s captured an enormous amount of U.S. weaponry, originally intended for the rebuilt Iraqi Army. You know — the one that collapsed in terror in front of the Islamic State, back when they were just ISIL? The ones who dropped their uniforms, and rifles and ran away?

    They left behind the bigger equipment, too, including M1 Abrams tanks (about $6 million each), 52 M198 Howitzer cannons ($527,337), and MRAPs (about $1 million) similar to the ones in use in Ferguson.

    Now, U.S. warplanes are flying sorties, at a cost somewhere between $22,000 to 30,000 per hour for the F-16s, to drop bombs that cost at least $20,000 each, to destroy this captured equipment.

    That means if an F-16 were to take off from Incirclik Air Force Base in Turkey and fly two hours to Erbil, Iraq, and successfully drop both of its bombs on one target each, it costs the United States somewhere between $84,000 to $104,000 for the sortie and destroys a minimum of $1 million and a maximum of $12 million in U.S.-made equipment.]

    http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/08/18/how-much-it-costs-the-u-s-to-blow-up-captured-u-s-military-hardware-in-iraq/

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    This is why my principles never allow me to buy things at convenience stores )and petrol stations)!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-convenience-stores-under-fire-for-not-showing-prices-20140819-105n8i.html
    Ross Gittins – Abbott is deluded and is swimming against the international tide. Why poor people don’t matter.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-convenience-stores-under-fire-for-not-showing-prices-20140819-105n8i.html
    A Senate inquiry hears how the proposed welfare changes will be counterproductive.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/19/welfare-changes-will-be-counter-productive-senate-inquiry-hears
    Warwick McFadyen suggests that Abbott’s gaffes come from a deep well of ignorance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-is-out-of-kilter-on-scottish-independence-20140819-105q3q.html
    The more Cormann and his ilk continue to bang on about or “fiscal emergency” the more it will become apparent that it really is a “revenue” emergency.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mathias-cormann-stokes-debt-fears-in-attempt-to-transform-budget-debate-20140819-105z17.html
    Some strong SMH editorial advice on what the government should do with the budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/time-for-serious-compromises-on-budget-20140819-3dync.html
    Albo – Abbott’s one year roads promise is about to be broken.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbotts-oneyear-roads-promise-about-to-be-broken-20140819-3dyry.html
    Hockey backs away from THAT apology.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/19/sloppy-joe-backs-away-apology-uses-boat-metaphor-ram-home-point
    Michelle Grattan – If you’re a kid in detention, a date is everything.
    https://theconversation.com/if-youre-a-kid-in-detention-a-date-is-everything-30682
    Damning results from a survey of “polluting businesses” on the repeal of carbon pricing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/carbon-tax-will-be-back-industry-believes-20140819-105uj1.html

  11. Section 2 . . .

    The politicisation of environmental science in Australia.
    https://theconversation.com/from-the-reef-to-the-ret-the-politicisation-of-environmental-science-in-australia-30669
    Yesterday in the child sexual abuse Royal Commission. The Catholic church’s legal eagle had a tough time.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/independent-commissioner-peter-ocallaghan-appears-at-royal-commission-20140819-105x9b.html
    How the victims were told to not go near the police.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/19/church-lawyer-told-victims-that-police-involvement-would-postpone-process
    Sydney maaaates. What a bloody disgrace!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/disgraced-former-labor-minister-joe-tripodi-and-eric-roozendaal-preferred-nathan-tinkler-to-labor-colleague-jodi-mckay-icac-20140819-105mlv.html
    Even the good Minister Adrian Piccoli is getting caught up in it, apparently peripherally.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/education-minister-adrian-piccoli-confirms-he-attended-fundraiser-at-the-home-of-the-owner-of-a-college-now-under-police-investigation-20140819-10600q.html
    A tale of two conspiracy theories – Chemtrails and CC deniers.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/a-tale-of-two-conspiracy-theories-chemtrails-and-climate-change-denial,6792
    John Oliver takes aim at the unrest in Ferguson, Missouri.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/a-tale-of-two-conspiracy-theories-chemtrails-and-climate-change-denial,6792
    The AFL’s culture of manipulation is wearing a bit thin.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2014/08/19/essendon-asada-afls-culture-manipulation/
    Turnbull is at odds with Abbott over Scotland.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clan-turnbull-again-at-odds-with-tony-abbott-this-time-over-scottish-independence-20140819-3dybs.html
    How rape culture breeds with silence.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/rape-culture-breeds-with-silence-20140819-105o6z.html

  12. Section 3 . . .

    More indication of the effects of cutting the RET.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/19/cutting-ret-bankrupt-wind-farms-energy-companies
    Geoff Shaw. What a dropkick!
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/geoff-shaw-wanted-taxpayers-to-fund-overseas-wedding-trip-20140819-105tyf.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope with Team Australia’s injury list.

    Alan Moir brings out Winnie the Pooh again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    John Spooner and Hockey’s desperation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html
    Brilliant stuff from David Rowe – Clive Palmer. the Yellow Peril.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  13. Morning all. Dennis Napthine is proud of the fact that Melbourne has been rated most liveable city (world wide) for the fourth time. They gave it a perfect score for infrastructure! Having been to Vienna, Vancouver, Munich and Helsinki it is a big call, and I have a question.

    If Napthine believes these ratings, why is he spending $8+ billion to build a toll road tunnel that wipes out a large chunk of the park area that gives Melbourne this rating?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/melbourne-worlds-most-liveable-city-for-the-fourth-year-running/5681014

  14. Thanks BK. Before I waffle on about politics I must give praise to the SA State Opera. Last night we saw Akhnaton, first part of the Phillip Glass trilogy. Beautiful! Singing, music and dancing were all superb, and very tastefully done. The lead counter-tenor was terrific.

  16. BK

    Political organisers like to imagine they are geniuses, but the more I read about Geoff Shaw, like Scott Driscoll in Qld, you really have to wonder how the. Libs vet candidates that they ever let him be a candidate at all, let alone in a winnable seat? (I had met Driscoll through work years ago, and his nature was very obvious from the outset.)

  19. ABC774 will be discussing the PUPs this morning. In particular the comments made by Senator Jacqui Lambie yesterday. Apparently she said wtte that when she attended briefing in Washington, a US General told her that Australia has to be prepared to fight an invasion from China.
    Either she has breached confidentiality, or she has taken some poetic licence in what she was told.

    Also it appears that Cormann is the latest MP to be wheeled out to tell all and sundry that the budget emergency needs to be dealt with and Labor and the Greens had better get on board.

    What a bloody circus.

  21. Heard a brief bit of Cormann this morning but had to switch off. When he repeats the stupidity of the “price signal” that will somehow save the budget without putting any money into it, does he just blank his mind and think about his retirement package? Do these ministers only listen to the spin merchants and not to common sense?

  23. Victoria

    Despite living in Adelaide I like visiting Melbourne but, having also visited the other cities I mentioned, I say again it is a big call.

    That being said, the EW Link tunnel is nuts. Shame on Labor for not promising to tear the contract up. Doing so will save Victorian taxpayers billions. Shame on Napthine for doing the deal. Shame on Abbott for funding it. Sad to say shame on some of my Victorian engineering colleagues for not speaking against it. The head of the vic transport modeling unit resigned, but the rest have caved in.

  26. victoria

    I think the problem is rather that the government isn’t listening to anyone. They are arrogant, stubborn, illogical and ignorant. Intellectual pygmies, the lot of them.

  28. Victoria

    That shows good sense by Melburnians. As a traffic engineer I can assure you the tunnel makes no sense. The question is: why would an unpopular minority government, facing an election, push through an unpopular project with huge costs? Who benefits? The answer lies in who gets the contract, and who they support.

  29. [ victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 20, 2014 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Jacqui Lambie – Apparently she said wtte that when she attended briefing in Washington, a US General told her that Australia has to be prepared to fight an invasion from China. ]

    When he was US Secretary of State Richard Armitage said something reasonably close publicly years ago.

    wtte – “In the event of a hot war with China, Australia would be expected to be actively involved”.

    Of course ANZUS does not require us to, it is restricted to “consulting” in the event of an attack on one of the members.

    Not that US would be capable of successfully *invading* China.

    Nucs would likely come into play before that.

    If abbott was PM his hand would be up in a flash unfortunately – another reason to chuck him out.

  30. And one of the leading pygmies is Greg Hunt.

    [Sociologist Max Weber argued ‘politics is the art of compromise’, while science is able to deliver societal progress for those who will listen to it. Neither are being achieved in Australia at the moment. The government is perfecting a paradigm for how to lose friends and alienate people, and bases its advice on those who have neither scientific method or credibility. This is a dangerous reductivism.

    The revelations on Four Corners {on Monday} that the advice of the grandfather of Great Barrier Reef studies, John Veron, and Australia’s leading reef scientists was all but ignored in approving the fine silt dredging at Abbot Point is the latest case in point.

    Instead, the entire process was politicised by parachuting in a coal mining-compliant bureaucrat from Canberra, Bruce Elliot. Yes, the stringent protections are supposed to be there, but they were also purported to be there in Gladstone – and Four Corners made it very plain to see what happened there.

    …

    When the yearly exports of coal from these mines are burned, they will produce more than 200 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Direct Action is aimed at reducing emissions by 131 millions tonnes per year. There is little point in Hunt pursuing a carbon reduction fund in the Senate when he is racking up coal mine approvals faster than voters are seeing their electricity bills rise.]

    https://theconversation.com/from-the-reef-to-the-ret-the-politicisation-of-environmental-science-in-australia-30669

  32. Ah, thank heavens I listened to Cormann and got my head sorted out.

    It’s OK to charge University students huge fees and get them to pay it off over their lifetimes because they’re the only ones to get a benefit from their degree.

    But it’s not OK to expect ‘our children’ to pay for the School Kids’ Bonus over their lifetimes even though they benefitted from it.

    It’s OK to inflict penury on young people looking for work because we don’t want to leave a legacy of debt to future generations.

    But it’s not OK for people to pay a small amount from their pockets now to ensure we don’t leave our children to cope with the consequences of climate change.

    This is how an ideological government works, folks – lots of ideas, not much logic.

  35. That being said, the EW Link tunnel is nuts. Shame on Labor for not promising to tear the contract up. Doing so will save Victorian taxpayers billions. Shame on Napthine for doing the deal.

    The choice was rail or road. Road wins out because poor people don’t drive and use public transport. Can’t have rich people sitting on trains next to poor people. They might catch poorness

  36. Also the govt will not release how much the tolls will be for the EW tunnel. Business confidentiality and all that being the excuse. Of course, the road users dont deserve to know what is in store for them

  37. [Shame on Labor for not promising to tear the contract up. ]

    Because governments can only tear up contracts signed by past governments if they’re obviously illegal in nature or the contractor can’t deliver as promised.

    If we’re talking sovereign risk, a government which shows no regard for contract law would be top of the charts.

    Conroy successfully tore up the Libs’ broadband contract, but that’s the only example I know of, and – as the government then didn’t have its a*se sued off -he obviously had very sound grounds.

  41. Pedant

    Maurice does not have a hair on his head so he may have years ago.

    Funny bloke to work with.

    Did two tours of duty in Vietnam as a volunteer reservist so is never flustered.

    Had children in his 60s which precludes retirement.

  42. Murdoch’s Oz today has a full blown assault on Palmer.

    Palmer is lead story on the Oz web page.

    That provides a link to another page titled “Special Investigation – Clive Palmer”. This includes seven articles where the Oz heavies lay into Palmer.

    He must really be annoying Murdoch!

  43. [Islamic State militants have released a video purportedly showing the beheading of a US journalist James Foley who went missing two years ago.

    In the five-minute video, posted on social media sites by Islamic State sources, the group declares that Mr Foley was killed after Barack Obama ordered airstrikes against IS positions in northern Iraq.

    The group also claimed to be holding another American journalist, Steven Sotloff, and said his life depended on the US president’s next move.]

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2014/08/20/islamic-state-militants–behead-us-journalist-.html?cid=BP_RSS_SN-TOPSTORIES_2_IslamicStatemilitantsbeheadUSjournalist_200814#sthash.M5I2Axw9.dpuf

  45. [Because governments can only tear up contracts signed by past governments if they’re obviously illegal in nature or the contractor can’t deliver as promised.

    If we’re talking sovereign risk, a government which shows no regard for contract law would be top of the charts.]

    A claim directly contradicted by Dr Nick Seddon, an adjunct professor at the ANU College of Law and the author of a standard text on government contracts..

    [“sovereign risk” does not apply where governments choose to break contracts and remain subject to legal remedy in the form of compensatory damages.]

    Kenneth Davidson’s article continues..

    [The Seddon paper said that “sovereign risk” was a political perception, but the legal issue was straightforward – the government can break the contract.

    In response, shadow state treasurer Tim Pallas backed down slightly. Answering a question from The Age, he said: “While tearing up the contract would break no law, it would risk damaging Victoria’s strong credit rating and add to the cost of borrowing”.

    There is no need for Labor to wait for the contract to be signed. If Pallas announced that an incoming Labor government would “tear up the contract” after the election, the compensatory damages would be minimal.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/east-west-link-the-case-against-this-road-gets-ever-stronger-20140727-zwtpz.html

  46. [Cutting the renewable energy target could bankrupt existing wind farms and lead to legal action against the commonwealth government, energy companies have warned.

    The government has long been divided over whether to pare back the scheme or close it down to all new entrants – the two options being considered by its review, headed by the businessman and self-professed climate sceptic Dick Warburton. The review delivered its report on Friday.

    Supporters of the “paring back” plan, understood to include environment minister Greg Hunt, have presented the “paring back” option as a compromise plan, which would allow some new investment and existing projects to continue, and would also have a better chance of passing the senate because it could be argued that it was in line with the original intent of the RET policy.

    The plan is also supported by fossil fuel energy companies whose profits would be boosted by at least $10bn by the policy, according to new research.

    But some parts of the renewable industry says paring back the RET would be almost as devastating to their existing investments – made at a time of clear bipartisan support for a RET targeting 41,000 gigawatt hours of renewable energy by 2020.

    The “paring back” option would also devastate the solar PV and solar hot water industries, according to the Solar Council, which has begun a marginal seat campaign to rally support.

    The campaign begins with a public meeting in the Liberal’s most marginal seat of Petrie on Thursday night, but local MP Luke Howarth, who was consulted before the meeting date was set, is now not attending. Guardian Australia understands the government has taken a decision that local members should not attend the rallies.

    . . .

    But the Solar Council says even the “paring back” option would cost 8,000 jobs.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/19/cutting-ret-bankrupt-wind-farms-energy-companies

  47. peg

    thanks for confirming what I was saying. I didn’t say that they COULDN’T tear up contracts, full stop, and I supplied an example where a contract had been torn up.

    The article you quote clearly indicates that sovereign risk applies if there’s no compensation.

    Again, I indicated that a government would be sued for compensation if they arbitrarily ripped up a contract.

    The fact that governments of all persuasions rarely rip up contracts (Conroy’s is, I repeat, the only example I know of) even when these apply to projects they have vehemently opposed and fundamentally disagree with, indicates that it’s a process not entered into lightly.

  49. zoomster

    Sovereign risk or not its truly a political risk. What government wants its agenda mired down by multiple lawsuits? That can happen with only one contract being torn up.

  50. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 20, 2014 at 8:36 am | PERMALINK
    Also the govt will not release how much the tolls will be for the EW tunnel. Business confidentiality and all that being the excuse. Of course, the road users dont deserve to know what is in store for them    ]

    I believe it should be absolutely illegal for a democratically elected government to enter into arrangements of this kind without revealing all of the conditions of the contract. Politicians have proven themselves to be too untrustworthy to be be allowed to spend such large amounts of taxpayers money in secret and if the commercial world cannot handle openness and accountability they have no business being involved in the spending of public money.

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