Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

After a shaky result for the LNP in yesterday’s state poll, today’s federal follow-up brings even worse news from Queensland for the Abbott government.

Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February. It also sits well with the current reading from BludgerTrack, suggesting serious problems for the government in what may be the most important state in the country in terms of marginal seats. Primary votes and such to follow shortly. UPDATE: The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 8% for the Greens and 12% for Palmer United. The poll also finds 36% believe the Abbott government has lived up to expectations, down nine points since February, 56% believe it has performed below them, up nine points, and 4% believe it has been better, down two.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The regular weekly result from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, to 40% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, and the two main minor parties up one, the Greens to 9% and Palmer United to 6%. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred to lead 52-48. Further questions find a remarkable 43% saying the government should respond to its budget difficulties by calling an election, the breakdowns for party support suggesting this mostly bespeaks a desire to get rid of the government rather than secure the passage of its budget. Thirty-eight per cent say they would rather a new budget be introduced, including a majority among Coalition supporters. I’m not sure if the availability of only two options together with “don’t know” succeeds in capturing the full range of opinion on the subject.

Other questions find opinion on the state of the economy little changed since April, with a good rating of 37% (down one) and a poor rating of 26% (up two), but more thinking it headed in the wrong direction, up seven to 41% with “right direction” down four to 35%. Concern about job losses is up a point to 58%, with the “not at all concerned” response up three to 32%. Twenty-one per cent say the impact of the budget on employment will be good versus 49% for bad. Sixty per cent disapprove of sending troops to Iraq versus 28% who approve, and 36% believe current spending on anti-terrorism measures is about right, compared with 28% who want more and 19% who want less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

Comments Page 13 of 23
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  2. Darn

    Good point. With government contracts “commercial in confidence should be waived as part of the conditions of the tendering process.

    That way companies bidding know what they are getting into.
    A lot of these arguments about commercial disadvantage are bull as all the companies bidding have the same conditions for bidding in tenders. Its not like there are competing governments. Governments are a monopoly in their jurisdiction,

  3. Socrates “Shame on Labor for not promising to tear the contract up.”

    Zoomster’s response “Because governments can only tear up contracts signed by past governments if they’re obviously illegal in nature or the contractor can’t deliver as promised.”

    gives the impression that Labor can not tear up the contract for the east-west link.

  7. peg

    [“Because governments can only tear up contracts signed by past governments if they’re obviously illegal in nature or the contractor can’t deliver as promised.”]

    …clearly states that contracts can be torn up.

    Not my fault if you can’t read.

  13. Legally, I think the most Labor could commit to on the E-W tunnel would be to examine the contracts signed and see what can be done.

    Promising to rip up a contract when you’re unaware of the conditions it imposes would be very foolish.

    If – for example – a company fears that a future government might not honour the contract, there might be huge penalty clauses inserted against that eventuality.

  14. Now thats a stuff up –

    [ “All publicity is good publicity,” right? Perhaps not.

    UK bakery Greggs suffered a PR nightmare this morning, as The Drum reports, after its primary Google search image, which is linked to the Wikipedia company description, was replaced with an expletive-ridden parody logo.

    The message in the image, which Greggs has appealed to Google to change, claimed the bakery has been “providing shit to scum for over 70 years”. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-19/uk-bakery-chain-proud-provide-shit-scum-over-70-years

  15. Must say I agree entirely with Confessions comment last night that this would have to be the worst government ever.

    I don’t think we have heard one minister talk with any sense of understanding of their portfolio.

    They are all politics and no substance and I laughed my head off when Rabbott challenged the ALP to give the Coalition alternative ideas for the budget.

    The Coalition have outsourced every portfolio. They have no personal working investment. Hence, their inability to articulate any detail beyond the brief summary/slogan.

    Bemused

    Re:economists

    My comment was about the perception that regardless how bad the Coalition handle the economy people believe they are better managers. As linked in the article. Labor did a cracking job with the economy, yet, people just refuse to believe it.

  16. “@ACOSS: .@GrattanInst presented 19 studies from 9 countries – all but 2 concluded that fees deterred people from taking their prescribed medication”

  18. victoria

    Faine says “this is social engineering”. Pyne argues “You’ve got your facts wrong.” Actually it’s started to get a bit willing (9.47am) so perhaps I won’t listen any more.

  26. [Palmer is lead story on the Oz web page.

    That provides a link to another page titled “Special Investigation – Clive Palmer”. This includes seven articles where the Oz heavies lay into Palmer.

    He must really be annoying Murdoch!]

    I hope that Palmer directs some of anger (and wealth) at attacking Murdoch

  27. “@ABCNews24: Joe Hockey: I am confident we can get the structural savings through the Senate #auspol #budget2014”

    Again the contrast with Swan.

  31. Pyne insisted that he was “opening up the universities to competition” from a range of sources. Faine: to “mickey mouse degrees”.

    I despair.

  32. [Karen Barlow ‏@KJBar 8m
    ABC @mscott estimates that more than 1000 years of professional experience and dedicated public service is disappearing from the ABC today.]

  35. Mmmm….Martin Ferguson….

    [In 2011, when Professor Ross Garnaut accused the networks of using dodgy data and “gold-plating” the poles and wires, the response was merciless and swift. Ausgrid CEO George Maltabarow said there wasn’t “a shred of evidence” for Garnaut’s claims. Martin Ferguson, the then federal energy minister whose government had commissioned Garnaut’s report, said, “Garnaut does not speak for the government … The regulatory framework for Australia’s energy sector is leading edge.”]

  36. Who cares, as long as Hockey can afford cigars and Gina can reap her profits…

    [The world has now reached “Earth overshoot day”, the point in the year when humans have exhausted supplies such as land, trees and fish and outstripped the planet’s annual capacity to absorb waste products including carbon dioxide.

    The problem is worsening, with the planet sliding into “ecological debt” earlier and earlier, so that the day on which the world has used up all the natural resources available for the year has shifted from early October in 2000 to August 19 in 2014.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/19/earth-ecological-debt-earlier?CMP=twt_gu

  39. “@TheKouk: In terms of lower AUD, I wonder if Stevens has considered a seminar to global investors with Clive Palmer & Barnaby Joyce talking economics”

    😆

  40. “@JEChalmers: Gov of #RBA response to @PatConroy1 Qs shows under Labor’s Fair Work Act we have productivity growth & flexible wages resp. to eco change”

  41. I may be wrong but I think the Queensland federal poll showing Labor in front is probably the first indication of a significant move back to Labor nation wide.

    My theory is that the wall to wall criticism of Joe Hockey’s silly comment regarding poor people not driving cars has served to refocus people’s attention on the unfairness of the budget. Abbott was able to hide behind the various international distractions for two or three weeks but not any more. Now it’s back to domestic matters where the government is at its weakest. Thanks Joe.

    For that reason I won’t be at all surprised if we see the other polls climbing again for Labor over the next couple of cycles.

  42. A couple of thoughts:
    1. Clive Palmer’s little outburst the other day was way out of line. But I think that the Government and Newscorp are glad of the distraction.
    2. The Government’s negotiating tactic to get contentious parts of the budget through the Senate seems to be:
    A. push the lies ‘debt and deficit disaster’ and ‘labor’s budget mess’ at every opportunity,
    B. Repeat the lie that the budget strategy is the only way to fix these non-problems
    C. Hope that enough voters believe them and put pressure on the cross benchers to pass budget measures.

  43. I have done a lazy cheap tweet

    Retweet if you think the MSM in Oz is not challenging the LNP on its Debt Emergency lie #auspol

    Hopefully enough people will retweet to break through the Canberra Press Gallery bubble

  45. Farn

    Those polls in Queensland are going to get worse. The same people that fear boat people fear the Chinese buying everything just like in the past they did the Japanese.

    Mr Palmer will be popular with them. He out dog whistled the LNP

  47. You can’t just tear up a contract without some legal settlement. It’s a bad thing for business confidence if governments happily don’t honour contracts when a new lot are in power and businesses factor that cost into the quote as the possibility of the contract not being honoured goes up.

  48. Diog

    What about a party that tells business before they sign contracts that when they get in power they will “tear them up”?

    Isn’t that a risk business takes?

  49. [Steve777
    Posted Wednesday, August 20, 2014 at 10:55 am | PERMALINK
    A couple of thoughts:
    1. Clive Palmer’s little outburst the other day was way out of line. But I think that the Government and Newscorp are glad of the distraction.
    2. The Government’s negotiating tactic to get contentious parts of the budget through the Senate seems to be:
    A. push the lies ‘debt and deficit disaster’ and ‘labor’s budget mess’ at every opportunity,
    B. Repeat the lie that the budget strategy is the only way to fix these non-problems
    C. Hope that enough voters believe them and put pressure on the cross benchers to pass budget measures.    ]

    Steve

    I think the government is making a big mistake in attacking Palmer at this critical time. He is obviously a bloke who has a short fuse and attacking him while there are important negotiations going on in the Senate where he holds all the aces is going to cause the government a lot more pain than it causes him.

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