BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A quiet week for polling yields next to no change in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,753 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. vic

    [Is Abbott running away to the netherlands so he doesnt have to deal with {?}]

    … {?} = Anything that he may f%ck up and will count against him.

  2. victoria:

    AFter the week the govt has had, Abbott’d have plenty of reasons to want to run away to the Netherlands. None of them good! 😆

  4. The ABC terms Tones visit to Holland as providing ‘assistance’.

    I don’t think the Dutch are that inept that they need Tones ‘help’.

    Possibly they could DNA test him and determine his origin.

  5. The only time the LNP polls go up is when Abbott is OS. It’s starting to get a bit expensive for the country though.

  7. mikehilliard@1655

    The only time the LNP polls go up is when Abbott is OS. It’s starting to get a bit expensive for the country though.

    Well we could avoid the cost of travel by having him stay somewhere overseas.

    I believe Antarctica is nice at this time of year. 👿

  17. Abbott is flying to the Netherlands to be briefed on the ID process. Has he never watched CSI or Silent Witness? Couldn’t someone rustle up some back episodes? Is he really deeply interested in the unpleasant processes involved in identifying remains? For goodness sakes, stop milking these victims for paltry political purposes, you pathetic excuse for a Prime Minister.

  26. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [Abbott is flying to the Netherlands to be briefed on the ID process]
    Obviously the Dutch have yet to discover the telephone.

  27. For those interested

    Remember to watch #Insiders at 9am tmrw. Barrie Cassidy interviews John Madigan. The panel is @PhillipCoorey, @dwabriz & Gerard Henderson.

  28. I note that the Australian ‘residents’ who died on MH17 have been promoted to ‘Australians’ by all and sundry in the MSM and the pollywafflers.

    Now. If you get a ‘resident’ who, for example, commits a crime on a train in Sydney, said resident never achieves ‘Australian’ status.

    The message is clear.

  29. I think, somehow, that a application to a State Supreme Court for an immediate declaration of Death in these circumstances would meet little opposition.

  32. Funny also that any Lebanese Australian, for example, who excels at, say, boxing, is an Australian, but as soon as he commits a minor offence he is a member of “the Lebanese Community”.

  33. Madigan is still the only politician in the whole world whose response to a question on AGW involved a suggestion that his listeners purchasing Australian-made jumpers.

    Or maybe it was cardigans?

  35. mike – My bit of French language is learned on the run rather than taught.

    A friend who resides around the French / Italian border described it as ‘Fritalian’.

    Basically French nouns and Italian verbs. 😀

    But I get by when needed.

  36. A couple of dozen people have been identified so far. But none of them have been Australian citizens… or even Australian residents.

  39. Boer

    Struck another of those at the National Gallery, which claims Marion Griffin (wife of Walter Burley G) as an Australian — for the five or so years she was living here.

    Just a little desperate, I thought.

  43. As per article linked

    [As Ghaith Krayem, secretary of the Islamic Council of Victoria, expressed it: ‘‘The effect of what the Prime Minister has done is put the Muslim community in a position where we are seen to be un-Australian by not supporting the government on the anti-terror stuff, and that they had to, in effect, buy us out by conceding on 18C. It’s just an atrocious way for a prime minister to behave.’’
    If the sceptics were leaning towards this second interpretation immediately after Abbott made his announcement on Tuesday, they were even more uneasy by week’s end. Among their ranks were Muslim community leaders, academics, free speech advocates, civil libertarians and respected authorities on counter-terrorism laws.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/dog-days-for-team-abbott-20140808-1020cn.html#ixzz39t84Fp7v

  44. [For those interested

    Remember to watch #Insiders at 9am tmrw. Barrie Cassidy interviews John Madigan. The panel is @PhillipCoorey, @dwabriz & Gerard Henderson.]

    How unsurprisement. Insiders sees its first woman host ever return to her normal duties and the week following her departure it’s back to Blokesville.

  47. CTar1

    BCassidy returned to his usual ABC radio slot on Thursday. He made a pretty damning assessment of the govt thus far. But as usually occurs, when he presents the Insiders program that all changes. Weird.

  48. Someone posted a link earlier to Rob a Oakeshott speech – I do wonder if the vested interests that did their best to destroy him, Tony Windsor and bring down good government are happy with the damage inflicted on our country. A lot of very good people left politics after the 43 Parliament from all sides of politics I’m guessed at least partially caused by the vitriol and venom of the media onslaught and probably disillusionment. Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor were two of these and were part of a very successful and productive government, unlike the current one. They wee vilified along with Ms Gillard for what? Ideology?

  50. zoomster

    Marion Mahoney suspected by many architects these days of doing a bit more than ‘line drawings’.

    Castlecrag may have been all her work while Walter was off having a ‘drink’.

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