BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A quiet week for polling yields next to no change in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,753 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. 52.1 2PP only yields Labor 79 seats. If Abbott loses 2pp but wins 76+ seats will he claim his own government is illegitimate?

  2. Greetings from Tromso, Norway. Here for the FIDE (world chess federation) elections and meetings for two weeks, as the Australian delegate. Hope to write about said messy subject on my site soon.

    My aggregate dropped from 52.8 to 52.7 and will drop again to 52.5 on the weekend if there’s nothing else before then.

  5. [The change in the political messaging and positioning is travelling well ahead of the actual policy detail, like lightning to be followed by thunder. The attorney general, George Brandis, who is said by officials in Canberra to be a torturously slow decision maker, is forced to scurry behind the prime minister with the laptop, drafting the particulars. (Not great cause for comfort, that. Headlines before substance. Does not generally bode well. Just ask Rudd.)

    A couple of other points in passing. There’s not only the discount the government has inflicted on itself by telling porkies and playing cynical games with the voters, Abbott also faces the difficulties of the current political communication environment. It’s almost impossible these days to actually land a clear message. Howard had it so much easier. If he wanted to change the conversation, he could just wander in for a chat with Neil Mitchell and do it. Themes would stick. Ideas would adhere before being broken up in cycles of contestability. Now, nothing sticks, everything is contestable, and everything is open to disruption, all the time – noisy, choppy, cluttered.

    And speaking of disruption, Abbott’s own base is actually split of some on these policy fundamentals. Centre-right libertarians don’t like state-sanctioned surveillance. And this segment of the Liberal party base is well represented in the current parliament. I predict some internal liveliness ahead.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/06/why-tony-abbott-must-tread-warily

  6. Its Official and Abbott hid from the announcement as predicted.

    [Rassypnoe, Ukraine: The Australian and Dutch governments have abandoned the search for victims of the Flight MH17 disaster.
    In statements overnight, prime ministerial envoy Angus Houston and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte conceded that the insecurity of an intensifying separatist war in and around the search site made it impossible to continue.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-crash-australian-dutch-governments-halt-search-amid-worsening-fighting-20140807-10195n.html#ixzz39eDmFXYu

  7. [Its Official and Abbott hid from the announcement as predicted.]

    So no doubt it has been renamed operation “Not Bringing them Home”

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    This is a salutary example of how MSM and shock jock driven populism and fearful governments adjust priorities. It’s not just Morrison but he’s holding the baton now and has the biggest mouth of all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/terror-touches-down-20140806-3d8wj.html
    The delicious morsels being delivered from ICAC have become a banquet! Maaates on parade.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/joe-tripodi-gave-improper-help-to-tinkler-project-20140806-3d8xt.html
    Here’s one of the morsels.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-mp-voted-for-housing-development-before-donations-to-his-campaign-20140806-1014gy.html
    And in another morsel Mr Credlin gets an ominous mention
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/06/liberal-brian-loughnane-allowed-banned-donation-nsw
    Now Liberal insiders point the finger at Brandis for all the 18C problems they have encountered in their electorates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberals-blame-brandis-bigots-comment-for-race-law-failure-20140806-3d8wh.html
    And the IPA was right in the mix.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ipa-targeted-mps-over-repeal-of-18c-20140806-3d8u8.html
    Independent Australia gives us an indigenous Australian view of why it is imperative that 18C should be retained.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/why-we-need-s18c-racism-hurts-to-the-bone,6747
    Over to you Senator Nash?
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/07/food-companies-health-too-low-child-marketing-study
    An unholy alliance – The World Congress of Families and a collection of ultra right wing Australian politicians. It’s a worry!
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/unholy-alliance-the-world-congress-of-families-and-australias-far-right-politicians,6735
    Will Abbott want to touch this request from Mike Baird?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-baird-must-call-tony-abbott-and-demand-uniform-national-donations-laws-20140806-10119f.html

  9. Section 2 . . .

    The word “inept” does not do justice to the eyepoppingly bad interview that Brandis did on SkyNews.
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/george-brandis-in-car-crash-interview-over-controversial-data-retention-regime-20140806-101849.html
    The Guardian has its say on the metadata matter.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/06/you-want-my-metadata-george-brandis-get-a-warrant
    And Michelle Grattan reckons they’ll have their work cut out getting it up.
    https://theconversation.com/there-is-a-data-deficit-in-governments-metadata-plan-30225
    Metadata for Dummies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/what-is-metadata-and-should-you-worry-if-yours-is-stored-by-law-20140806-100zae.html
    Is it now reasonable to suggest that Abbott engaged his populist mouth before it was appropriate? “Operation Bring Them Home”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-crash-australian-dutch-governments-halt-search-amid-worsening-fighting-20140807-10195n.html
    Absolutely!!!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rein-in-specialists-fees-adviser-20140806-3d948.html
    The implied power of the Israeli lobby is exercised on the AFL.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-under-fire-for-gaza-ad-ban-at-adelaide-oval-20140806-101681.html
    Abbott’s haste to tackle home-grown terrorists carries grave risks
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/abbotts-haste-to-tackle-homegrown-terrorists-carries-grave-risks-20140806-100vo2.html
    Katherine Murphy opines similarly.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/06/why-tony-abbott-must-tread-warily
    And Ben Eltham tells us of how Abbott will further erode our freedoms.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/06/abbott-erodes-yet-another-crucial-part-our-fundamental-freedoms

  10. Section 3 . . .

    Bob Ellis gives us a practical example of how relaxed we can be about security.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/06/a-note-on-security/
    Prissy Pyne does gymnastics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pyne-says-budget-plan-to-charge-real-interest-for-student-debts-faces-wind-back-20140806-3d7un.html
    The University of Sydney is about to exercise a rarely used capability to jam it up Pyne.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/06/sydney-uni-staff-students-alumni-win-historical-debate-pyne-reforms
    The carbon tax goes and Canberra gas prices soar.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/forecast-100plus-jump-in-household-gas-bills-to-give-canberra-the-shivers-20140806-100zds.html
    The Child Sexual Abuse Royal Commission sits in Sydney today and probes the Marist Brothers.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/08/07/abuse-inquiry-hearings-resume-sydney/
    The three worst things the Liberal Party did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/06/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-21/
    MUST SEE! Alan Moir sums up the great time Brandis is having.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Ron Tandberg with advice on how to talk about education policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    GET A LOOK AT THIS! David Rowe gives us Team Australia.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  12. BK

    That was a massive job you did this morning.
    Is the govt spending money in the right places? I say no.

    [An Immigration Department manager has warned agency chiefs in a confidential memo that the collapse of the department’s investigations arm has led to the spread of migration fraud and increased the risk to national security.

    An internal briefing document written in early 2013 by immigration official Wayne Sievers and addressed to immigration secretary Martin Bowles says investigations teams in several state offices were “unviable”.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/immigration-officer-warns-on-risk-to-national-security-20140806-3d8yy.html#ixzz39eJVDdIu

  13. 11

    Any IT person (or anyone using Google) can unravel the whole Libs confusion over metadata retention on whether content, web addresses, IP, etc is asked to be retained.

  15. I feel ashamed.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/06/beaten-spied-on-asylum-seekers-reveal-oppression

    [If Australia does deport the 157 Tamils now on Nauru, they will automatically be arrested upon return. That is always the first punishment – the Sri Lankan government appears to see the decision to leave illegally as evidence of their guilt of a past crime. Thus the cycle will continue interminably – criminalised by Sri Lanka for fleeing, and then again by Australia for seeking refuge.]

  16. [David Pope ‏@davpope 24m
    I have asked online to take it down and ask you not to further publish it. I will talk to my editor about next step. 3/3

    David Pope ‏@davpope 26m
    Thought that was next week, horrified if anyone thinks I chose today’s airship metaphor deliberately. Apologies to grieving families. 2/3

    David Pope ‏@davpope 29m
    Woke to be reminded that today is a national day of mourning for MH17. 1/3]

  17. And from the Land of the Free –

    The gorgeous darling of the Right, Ann Coulter.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/08/06/ann-coulter-can-limbo-low-low-lowcoulter/
    ObamaCare helps the Republican states the most. Ha ha!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/05/1319408/-Two-red-states-see-biggest-drop-in-uninsured-rate-because-of-nbsp-Medicaid
    Fire safety and conservation Republican style.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/06/1319625/-Vilsack-Money-allocated-to-fight-wildfires-will-run-out-by-end-of-August
    A man shoots himself in the head to prove the gun wasn’t loaded.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017207458
    Hilarious bad lip reading – Michelle Bachmann.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017207349
    Family discussions Oklahoma style.
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/08/06/tulsa-cop-kicks-out-daughter-over-bad-life-decisions-then-guns-down-her-boyfriend/
    Dog control Pennsylvania style.
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/08/06/philly-cops-shoot-woman-after-hail-of-bullets-meant-for-unruly-dog-goes-wrong/

  20. […Abbott also faces the difficulties of the current political communication environment. It’s almost impossible these days to actually land a clear message.]

    Poor man. Strange how this has only developed in the last nine months..

    Re: climate change?

    We don’t have pelicans. We’ve never had pelicans. Yet there is a pelican on our river this morning.

  21. Morning all. Still grumpy at the SMH for forcing out Carlton for some private emails, but glad to be signed up to Crikey now.

    This story raises the very real question of whether the above average property holdings of federal politicians deter them from policies that would make housing more affordable?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-many-houses-of-parliament-propertyrich-pollies-have-vested-interest-in-high-prices-20140806-10110y.html

    Indeed. Years ago I remember quizzing former Keating AG Michael Lavarch why they did not reign in badly abused tax breaks on family trusts, when he surprisingly started defending them. Sure enough, he had one himself.

  23. BK

    Thanks for the links. That Brandis interview is cringeworthy! Even the nice friendly Sky interviewer could not hide his ignorance. Stripped of his haughty confidence Brandis sounded like a stuttering teenager. At one point he said “its” four times in a row!

    Did this guy ever actually work as a courtroom barrister? Or did he just want the letters on his CV?

  24. Socrates

    Brandis surely must have realised he was talking shit. He was suggesting that they would only be tracking the web address, not the website. What is the bloody difference!

  26. Socrates: Every pollie I’ve ever worked for has a family trust.

    This is designed to protect their families in the event they say or do something (in all innocence) which later comes back to bite them on the arse legally and/or financially.

  27. chinda

    As long as they don’t use them to dodge tax… sorry I find that a very weak excuse. They already have parliamentary privilege. If they do something illegal beyond what that covers they should be just as accountable as anyone else. No doubt Eddie Obeid has one. I don’t see that as a justification.

    Family trusts they are a rort. People with family trusts do not love their families any more than those without, but they pay less. It is another example of how our political system (both sides) is run by lawyers for lawyers. The failure to rein them in despite many inquiries over three decades shows that when it comes to personal taxation, politicians on both sids are ethically compromised.

    Have a good day all.

  28. I agree entirely, Socrates.

    I got the impression one in particular was more designed to protect their collective assets in the event the partner’s small business fell over.

  31. awwwwwww. Poor diddums
    [JACOB GREBER AND PHILLIP COOREY
    Treasurer Joe Hockey has hit out at a lack of bipartisan support for tough economic reform, weak business advocacy for change, and the media for attacks against him personally.

    In an outburst following months of criticism over his failure to win broad public and Senate support for his first budget, Mr Hockey complained it was “bloody hard” explaining the complexities of Australia’s challenges after two decades of economic growth.

    He defiantly defended his budget – which has been stymied by Senate opposition that threatens to worsen the deficit by more than $44 billion over four years – against claims it was a lesser effort than predecessors Peter Costello and Paul Keating.

    “My first budget was not anywhere as large in fiscal consolidation terms as Keating’s budgets or Costello’s in 1996,” he said. “But it had more structural reform, I would argue, than any single budget they ever delivered. And that’s been completely lost in the debate.”

    Alongside his criticism of the fractious media landscape, Mr Hockey took aim at a key source of the Liberal Party’s traditional support base. “I think interest groups are quite weak, and the ­business community is weaker than it has been over many years, as a voice.”]
    and it goes on and on and on
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/treasurer_joe_hockey_hits_business_dwhSEmPMvAysFPWsYNuxyH

  32. awwwwwww. Poor diddums
    [JACOB GREBER AND PHILLIP COOREY
    Treasurer Joe Hockey has hit out at a lack of bipartisan support for tough economic reform, weak business advocacy for change, and the media for attacks against him personally.

    In an outburst following months of criticism over his failure to win broad public and Senate support for his first budget, Mr Hockey complained it was “bloody hard” explaining the complexities of Australia’s challenges after two decades of economic growth.

    He defiantly defended his budget – which has been stymied by Senate opposition that threatens to worsen the deficit by more than $44 billion over four years – against claims it was a lesser effort than predecessors Peter Costello and Paul Keating.

    “My first budget was not anywhere as large in fiscal consolidation terms as Keating’s budgets or Costello’s in 1996,” he said. “But it had more structural reform, I would argue, than any single budget they ever delivered. And that’s been completely lost in the debate.”

    Alongside his criticism of the fractious media landscape, Mr Hockey took aim at a key source of the Liberal Party’s traditional support base. “I think interest groups are quite weak, and the ­business community is weaker than it has been over many years, as a voice.”]
    and it goes on and on and on
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/treasurer_joe_hockey_hits_business_dwhSEmPMvAysFPWsYNuxyH

  37. My son put on a sooky, whiny voice this morning and started saying wtte of “No one ever helps me. I have to do everything myself…”

    “Who are you meant to be?” I asked.

    “Joe Hockey.”

  38. [Treasurer Joe Hockey has hit out at a lack of bipartisan support for tough economic reform, weak business advocacy for change, and the media for attacks against him personally.]

    That’s hilarious. Of course it never occurs to him that his lack of competence is to blame for his inability to get people to accept his budget.

  41. A Professor Simon Wight (???? sounded like that was his name….. a self confessed “human rights tragic”)) just on ABC RN discussing our new Human Right Commissioner Tim Wilson’s recent statement that the Racial Discrimination Act is itself discriminatory because it is not available for white people to use.

    The Professor said in a long winded way that Wilson’s statement was crap, wrong. He politely summed it up as “a misconceived view”.

    He said that there had been many complaints made by whites under the provisions of the Act, and there were also some concluded cases that had elevated from the complaint stage (and mediation etc) to court and a judgement.

  42. I’ve mentioned in a few modest contributions here the potential benefit to the ALP of putting Senate ministers under real pressure on the details of Bills, forcing them to go into Committee of the Whole, posing questions clause by clause, etc.

    You will see no better evidence in support of that idea than Senator Brandeis’s interview yesterday about metadata. He is clearly one of those old f**ts – he’s older than me, God help him – who has a mental block about new-fangled technology. If he has to defend and explain clause by clause the details of a complex Bill dealing with a subject he doesn’t come close to understanding, he’ll undoubtedly melt down again. It will be beautiful to watch.

  43. [Treasurer Joe Hockey has hit out at a lack of bipartisan support for tough economic reform, weak business advocacy for change, and the media for attacks against him personally. ]

    That was naughtie Lao – a mouthful of coffee came *that close* to being sprayed on the PC monitor. 🙂

    All from the bloke who attacked every move Labor did – including twisting good news.

    Some news for hockey – his worries stretch out as far as the eye can see and will only end when the tories are chucked out.

    Reaping what they sowed.

  44. Treasurer Joe Hockey has hit out at a lack of bipartisan support for tough economic reform, weak business advocacy for change, and the media for attacks against him personally.

    The Liberals have no right to seek bi-partisan support for their budget.

    They failed Australia miserably by not providing any bi-partisan support when the GFC hit. They hid under a rock, popping out now and then to say “We would do it better and cheaper” but never explained how. They invested their energies into under-mining the Government and attempting to erode business and consumer confidence for purely political purposes without a care for the damage they were doing to Australia

  45. Also on ABC RN was Dr Jim Swires (? spelling) who lost 23 year old daughter Flora on Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie.

    James Carleton discussed the bereavement with DR Swires. The doctor gave some salient points, especially given today’s national day of mourning for MH17.

    Dr Swires showed himself to be a man of considerable self insight and general wisdom.

    * he has seen a lust for revenge destroy the lives of other Lockerbie family members

    * he has sustained and developed himself by being involved in the search for the truth and justice about Lockerbie

    * many families found the publicity and politicisation of Lockerbie debilitating

    * many families found that having to rub shoulders with politicians in post-Lockerbie forums to be debilitating

    Interesting comments, given what’s on today in Australia.

  46. Reading what Pope wrote and thinking about this government he probably depicted them or their policies as or on the Hindenburg .

  47. [ pedant
    Posted Thursday, August 7, 2014 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    I’ve mentioned in a few modest contributions here the potential benefit to the ALP of putting Senate ministers under real pressure on the details of Bills, forcing them to go into Committee of the Whole, posing questions clause by clause, etc. ]

    Being laughed at for not having a clue and being a dinosaur may well turn out to be worse then having people stop listening to the tories.

    What goes around comes around.

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