BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A quiet week for polling yields next to no change in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,753 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. George and the MetaMonster from the Id

    In Forbidden Planet (1956) the crew of the United Planets Cruiser C-57D are attacked by an invisible monster which is impervious to high energy weapons fire.

    The crew are unable to neutralise it because, in a sense, it doesn’t really exist – it is a creation of the mind.

    A bit like George Brandis’ metadata really. Because he doesn’t understand it, he can’t defend himself from it, and the more he tries to explain it the more it glows in the dark and becomes increasingly dangerous.

    The problem with metadata is that it can mean virtually anything, as it is simply data that describes data.

    The Sky interviewer – and anyone else trying to understand this legislation, could start with a simple question.

    “What metadata are you proposing to retain? Can you give me specific examples?”

    For example an IP address such as 1.124.48.155 is metadata describing the location of a network device – such as a web server – but not necessarily a website, although it could point to that.
    “Debbie Does Dallas” could be metadata relating to a particular video, e.g. the title of the page in which the video is embedded.
    A domain such as “crikey.com.au” is metadata relating to a specific website, and a url such as “http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger” is a specific web page.

    What Brandis should have done, is give specific excamples of metadata that would be kept, how the data would be obtained, and by whom and under what legal conditions it could be accessed.
    Instead he has created a monster to come back and bite him just like his Bigot’s Magna Carta 18c.

  2. dave @ 47: I was struck by the Alan Moir cartoon linked by BK @ 10. There’s a real danger for Senator Brandeis in the way so many people are coming to see him as just a joke. In terms of numbers of discrete major stuff-ups – on East Timor in the ICJ, on the occupied territories, and of course the one on bigots’ rights – he’s well in front of all of his ministerial colleagues, and he should be first one to be dumped in a reshuffle.

  3. lizzie
    Posted Thursday, August 7, 2014 at 7:20 am | PERMALINK
    BK

    That was a massive job you did this morning.
    Is the govt spending money in the right places? I say no.

    An Immigration Department manager has warned agency chiefs in a confidential memo that the collapse of the department’s investigations arm has led to the spread of migration fraud and increased the risk to national security.

    An internal briefing document written in early 2013 by immigration official Wayne Sievers and addressed to immigration secretary Martin Bowles says investigations teams in several state offices were “unviable”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/immigration-officer-warns-on-risk-to-national-security-20140806-3d8yy.html#ixzz39eJVDdIu

    Chris Bowen really was an inept Immigration minister.

  4. Dave Pope did a toon last year called the “Hindenboob II” using his fave the Sky Whale for Abbott’s Budget Reply. He probably rolled out another riff on it crashing and burning.

  5. [Brandis…..he’s well in front of all of his ministerial colleagues, and he should be first one to be dumped in a reshuffle. ]

    Lets hope they keep him then.

  6. guytaur @ 50: I assume that youtube clip was issued by Senator Brandeis’s office. It seems to make more sense than the unexpurgated version.

  7. “@joshgnosis: Gillian Triggs says that the nat sec proposal is a “radical reversal” of the debate about protection of free speech #FreeSpeech2014”

  8. dave @ 57: I suspect it will be borderline. He certainly deserves to go, but they might baulk due to the fact that he’s their Deputy Leader in the Senate. Furthermore, they’d probably have to make Mr Turnbull the Attorney-General, since they seem quite short of good lawyers (as distinct from people with law degrees). More generally, I suspect Mr Abbott won’t want to have a reshuffle, thinking that now is not a time for making new enemies (as was said by Voltaire on his deathbed when invited by a priest to renounce the devil).

  9. If you read nothing else today you should read this moving story provided to PB yesterday by swamprat:
    http://rorate-caeli.blogspot.com/2014/08/goodbye-mosul.html#more
    This is the fate of all of us if the Islamic jihadist terrorists of ISIS, Nusra, Al Qaeda, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Muslim Brotherhood, Boko Harem, Hizbullah, Taliban and all the rest are not stopped. It doesn’t stop with the Jews or the Christians of the ME. Even though most of these terrorists hate each other, they all have basically the same jihadist agenda often wrapped up in a “local” cause as the first aim, and we ignore them at our peril. They are the new full-blown Nazis and there is no accommodation or compromise with them.

  10. “@AusHumanRights: #FreeSpeech2014 – @GillianTriggs – Australia becoming increasingly isolated from common legal systems due to no Charter or Bill of rights”

  11. [Australia becoming increasingly isolated from common legal systems due to no Charter or Bill of rights]

    That is a very doubtful proposition.

  12. I think that the oft repeated ‘pox on both their houses’ line re Israel and Gazza is a bit of a cop out, just like the similar claims about Labor and the Coalition.

    It doesn’t take a great deal of research to realise just how badly the Palestinians have been treated since the establishment of the Israeli state. It is clear that Israel’s current policy is to rid Gazza of the Palestinians by whatever means possible.

  13. If Abbott was serious about a ‘reset’ he should dump Dutton and Johnston, demote Brandis and shift Pyne sideways. Bishop should get a domestic portfolio and Macfarlane promoted. He’s probably stuck with Hockey.

    As above, I hope he sticks with his current embarrassments.

  14. I think the most distasteful thing I’ve read this morning is that the woman who leaked the information about Abbott’s daughter getting a mystery ‘scholarship; is being prosecuted. Most companies would just fire the responsible party. In addition New Matilda is alleging that the same daughter is now getting a free ride for her masters….

    Seems to be an abuse of power by the PM, who appears to be a petty, vindictive sort….

  15. [This is the fate of all of us if the Islamic jihadist terrorists of ISIS, Nusra, Al Qaeda, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Muslim Brotherhood, Boko Harem, Hizbullah, Taliban and all the rest are not stopped.]

    There are many people who agree that that sort of dangerous, anti-democratic ideology needs to be opposed and stopped. But turning Gaza into a concentration camp and terrorising the civilian population is not stopping it. It’s immoral in its own right, violating international law and not even being effective in the longer-term struggle you are talking about. It is only directed at the narrowly defined proximate physical security of Israel. That’s not at all the same thing.

  16. Adrian
    [ It is clear that Israel’s current policy is to rid Gazza of the Palestinians by whatever means possible.]

    I think you mean “It is clear that Israel’s current policy is to rid Gaza’s Palestinians of Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists, by whatever means possible.” This should also be the world’s aim if the world truly cares.

  17. Mick77@61

    If you read nothing else today you should read this moving story provided to PB yesterday by swamprat:
    http://rorate-caeli.blogspot.com/2014/08/goodbye-mosul.html#more
    This is the fate of all of us if the Islamic jihadist terrorists of ISIS, Nusra, Al Qaeda, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Muslim Brotherhood, Boko Harem, Hizbullah, Taliban and all the rest are not stopped. It doesn’t stop with the Jews or the Christians of the ME. Even though most of these terrorists hate each other, they all have basically the same jihadist agenda often wrapped up in a “local” cause as the first aim, and we ignore them at our peril. They are the new full-blown Nazis and there is no accommodation or compromise with them.

    Do you advocate taking military action against the country that provides the ideological source for Sunni extremist groups and a large percentage of their funding?

  18. Martin B

    I’m suggesting that it’s not only Israel’s problem – there is a world-wide jihadist agenda. It wouldn’t stop if Islamic Jihad & Hamas had succeeded in their dastardly plans. Ignore Islamic jihadism at your peril.

  19. Mick

    No

    Israel’s policy is to rid Palestine of PALESTINIANS.

    They want lebensraum.

    I think Czechoslovakia is a pretty good analogy.

    I am not sure how bombing a UN facility rids Gaza of Hamas – unless you think the UN is really Hamas. No wonder the supply of tin foil is dwindling.

  20. Retweeted by Van Badham
    Mrs Denis Napthine ‏@Mrs_DenisN 3m

    Lisa Neville outlines to parliament how Napthine’s “environment” minister @RyanSmithMP swore and verbally abused her last night. #springst

    Time to VOTE this mob out.

  21. liyana @ 69: It would be interesting to see what sorts of issues and information might be able to be drawn out in a court case by a fire-breathing defence barrister.

  22. [Yesterday should have been a national day of mourning for Hiroshima, 69 years ago. ,]

    There is an argument that the nuclear bomb should get the Nobel Peace Prize due to the Long Peace which has followed its use, as well as all the lives saved by shortening WWII.

  23. Bemused

    I like it.

    Mick I assume you ARE calling for sanctions against Saudi and Yemen and the other gulf states.

    They are funding the jihadists, just as they funded Bin Laden.

    I look forward to your passionate call for sanctions are you letter to J Bishop that she should treat Saudi supporters of Isis just like Russian supporters of separatists.

    Good to see we are on the same page. 🙂

  24. daretotread@82

    Bemused

    I like it.

    Mick I assume you ARE calling for sanctions against Saudi and Yemen and the other gulf states.

    They are funding the jihadists, just as they funded Bin Laden.

    I look forward to your passionate call for sanctions are you letter to J Bishop that she should treat Saudi supporters of Isis just like Russian supporters of separatists.

    Good to see we are on the same page.

    A good start would be to declare the Wahabis a terrorist organisation and block their transfer of funds overseas and seize any overseas assets as far as possible.

  25. Dio

    I am not sure the residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki would agree with you.

    If they had not dropped the bomb probably another 100,000 soldiers would have died and possibly another 100,00 or so Japanese civilians as the invasion started. However it is extremely unlikely the death toll would have been greater than that of the nuclear attacks.

    As for post bomb peace. You might have a point but it will be very hard to know.

  26. daretotread@84

    Dio

    I am not sure the residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki would agree with you.

    If they had not dropped the bomb probably another 100,000 soldiers would have died and possibly another 100,00 or so Japanese civilians as the invasion started. However it is extremely unlikely the death toll would have been greater than that of the nuclear attacks.

    As for post bomb peace. You might have a point but it will be very hard to know.

    The Americans had produced estimates of casualties if they invaded the Japanese home islands. They did so based on smaller islands they had already invaded where there was a Japanese civilian population.

    The estimates ran into millions on the Japanese side with huge casualties on the allied side.

  27. Adrian
    [Mick77 don’t tell me what I meant to say you worthless troll.]
    Just trying to help your muddled brain. Say “thank you”.

    DTT
    [Good to see we are on the same page. ]
    I agree.

  28. [
    However it is extremely unlikely the death toll would have been greater than that of the nuclear attacks.
    ]

    I’m pretty sure that the casualties caused by an invasion of Japan would have been much more than those caused by the Atomic Bombs.

    Take a look at the invasion of Okinawa as a guide

    [
    The battle has been referred to as the “typhoon of steel” in English, and tetsu no ame (“rain of steel”) or tetsu no bōfū (“violent wind of steel”) in Japanese.(7)(8)(9) The nicknames refer to the ferocity of the fighting, the intensity of kamikaze attacks from the Japanese defenders, and to the sheer numbers of Allied ships and armored vehicles that assaulted the island. The battle resulted in the highest number of casualties in the Pacific Theater during World War II. Based on Okinawan government sources,(10) mainland Japan lost 77,166 soldiers, who were either killed or committed suicide, and the Allies suffered 14,009 deaths (with an estimated total of more than 65,000 casualties of all kinds). Simultaneously, 42,000–150,000 local civilians were killed or committed suicide, a significant proportion of the local population
    ]

    The estimates of the number of people killed from the Atomic bombs that I have seen range from 120,000 to 250,000. If the Allies had have invaded Japan there would have most likely been a lot more casualties than that.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Okinawa

  29. bemused

    [A good start would be to declare the Wahabis a terrorist organisation and block their transfer of funds overseas and seize any overseas assets as far as possible.]
    Yeah and first up we boycott their oil………..Oh right.

  30. bemused

    [The estimates ran into millions on the Japanese side with huge casualties on the allied side.]

    If I recall correctly the ‘allied side’ estimate was 600,000.

  31. So Mick what is your suggestion to stop the radicalization of people around the world – Israel seems to have nailed how to support them – what do you think 4 – 5 additional radicals for each innocent murdered by Israel.

    If it is a real threat as you say shouldn’t we be stopping these idiots in Israel fueling the fire?

  32. Dtt

    Clearly the residents of those two cities wouldn’t but overall a ground invasion would have cost more lives.

    The unprecedented Long Peace since is only partly attributable to the nuclear threat and was an unintended but welcome result.

  33. [ I’m pretty sure that the casualties caused by an invasion of Japan would have been much more than those caused by the Atomic Bombs. ]

    Plus the fire bombing of 50 – 60 other Japanese cities prior to this caused many many more deaths.

    The reason the Atomic Bombs weren’t dropped on Tokyo for example is that very little was left of it from prior bombing and the US wanted to be see the effect of a basically intact city.

    Its also curious that the Japanese decorated Curtis Lemay – who lead and commanded the bombing of those cities, with one of their highest awards after the war.

  34. “@NicholasDole: Counsel assisting #ICAC says new evidence has come to light that could cast a very different light on Owen and Cornwell’s behaviour.”

  35. With the Hiroshima & Nagasaki bombs the most relevant figure was the expected allied casualties if the war had gone on. It is the task of armies to defend their own. Without a doubt there would have been 10s or 100s of thousands of allied casualties. And the US warned the Japanese. As heartbreaking as it was even if there were 5 million Japanese casualties it was the right decision.

    As it turned out the net effect was that it saved Japanese lives although no consolation for those on the negative side of the leger. The Japanese Imperialist Army were the forerunners of today’s jihadists and willing to sacrifice their own people for their global aims and they had to be stopped.

  36. Re Liyana @69: that whole business about the ‘scholarship’ appears prima facie to be corrupt. Bill Shorten should appoint a parliamentary attack dog, probably in the Senate as the Speaker in the House would shut down attempts to pursue the issue, to hound Tony Abbott and keep the issue alive. Of course Bill Shorten and senior ministers should stay above the fray.

  37. [The Americans had produced estimates of casualties if they invaded the Japanese home islands. They did so based on smaller islands they had already invaded where there was a Japanese civilian population.

    The estimates ran into millions on the Japanese side with huge casualties on the allied side.]

    Pretty much from the moment the bomb(s) was (were) dropped there has been a sustained historic argumentation about a) what were the alternative routes to ending the war b) how long they would have taken and c) what the likely casualties in that time would have been.

    I once argued this out in some detail on Larvatus Prodeo and I really don’t feel like spending that time on it again. I will content myself with saying that those estimates are not unquestionably correct, and were even disputed within the US military at the time.

  38. I want to watch ICAC on either FoxNews or A-pac multiview but all there is is the union RC, idiots like Tim Wilson and Chris Berg rabbiting on about frees speech or old men in silly frocks talking rubbish about MH17.

  39. RD ‘Chris Bowen really was an inept Immigration minister.’

    If you base your opinion on sitting on a internal ministerial briefing for six months, then what is your opinion of the current immigration minister sitting in it for 11 months?

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