BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A quiet week for polling yields next to no change in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,753 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. [1596
    Diogenes

    Looks like we might be helping with the RAAF preforming air drops inIraq.

    Tony Abbott has offered Australia’s assistance to the US for humanitarian air drops over northern Iraq after the US military launched air strikes against Islamic State (Isis) forces.

    The prime minister said he had spoken with US officials about the “potential humanitarian disaster” and that he had been asked to consider participation in humanitarian air drops.]

    The statement made here is that Abbott “has been asked to consider participation” ….This has the same plausibility as Menzies infamous claim that he was asked to offer support to South Viet Nam, leading to Australia’s involvement in that conflict.

    Undoubtedly, Abbott was not “asked” to do anything. He will have offered Australian support. He is just aching to get into a war…any war…as long as he gets to play at being a wartime PM….marshal of the nation’s destiny…and all the rest of the shit…

  2. Diogenes @ 1596

    [Looks like we might be helping with the RAAF preforming air drops inIraq.

    Tony Abbott has offered Australia’s assistance to the US for humanitarian air drops over northern Iraq after the US military launched air strikes against Islamic State (Isis) forces.

    The prime minister said he had spoken with US officials about the “potential humanitarian disaster” and that he had been asked to consider participation in humanitarian air drops.]

    It’s obvious that Abbott is desperate for a nice Liberal war to get involved in.

    In the meantime he tries to present as the Putin of the South….. personally “leading” the search for MH307, “coordinating” MH17, now iraq….

  3. – Debt higher.

    Australian Office of Financial Management, has increased to $333.5 billion as of today, which is some $53.2 billion above the level of gross debt at the September 2013 election.

    Abbott government came to power in September 2013 on a platform of “reducing debt” and “paying down debt” with the end point of “eliminating debt”, it has borrowed, in gross terms, over $93 billion. That is about $2 billion a week.

  4. It’s a sad reflection on our times that when I just saw a headline on the SMH website “Fury at job-seeker virginity tests” (which turned out to be about something in Brazil) my immediate first thought was Senator Abetz must have had another bright idea.

  5. ABC website:

    [Australia has offered to help the United States provide humanitarian assistance to refugees in Iraq, the Prime Minister says.]

    So we’re offering ‘help’ to the US rather than to Iraqi civilians.

    A ‘flaw’ in the intent here about who and why.

  6. @CTar1/1607

    It would put another spanner in the libs war on “illegals”(btw, why is the ABC calling them refugees?, are they not suppose to call them illegals?)…

  7. frednk

    Speaking of losing the plot. Kiev will have lost it if they try this one on for real.

    [Ukraine ‘may cut Russia energy for Europe’

    UKRAINE has warned it might cut Russian oil and gas flows to Europe and ban Russian airlines from crossing its airspace, as Moscow criticised the country for suspending a ceasefire at the crash site of MH17.

    THE measures are part of a sanctions bill targeting Russia that will be submitted to parliament, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said in Kiev]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/ukraine-may-cut-russia-energy-for-europe/story-fn3dxix6-1227018944522

  8. I really wonder if many voters noticed the stuff ups by the various tories this week and if so how many of them are really concerned about it.

    We find out soon I guess.

  9. Retweeted by Tony Windsor
    The Independent ‏@Independent 17h

    There are so many reasons why what the Australian Daily Telegraph did was not appropriate. http://ind.pn/1uvzn3X

    Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Doc ‏@Doclach 9h

    .@RobOakeshott1: How big business hijacked parliament. http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/topic/politics/2014/08/09/rob-oakeshott-how-big-business-hijacked-parliament/1407506400#.U-VQ-kWVkrE.twitter … @SatPaper #auspol

    Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Dadiva Netter ‏@sydnets 9h

    The key to the success of #Australia’s oligarchs is the lax political donation laws at all levels http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/topic/politics/2014/08/09/rob-oakeshott-how-big-business-hijacked-parliament/1407506400#.U-VT7kCVraR … HT @RobOakeshott1

  10. [It’s a sad reflection on our times that when I just saw a headline on the SMH website “Fury at job-seeker virginity tests” (which turned out to be about something in Brazil) my immediate first thought was Senator Abetz must have had another bright idea.]

    It isn’t just you. My mind went straight to Abetz as workplace relations minister when I read a report yesterday of a former pregnant ANZ employee who was apparently sacked for refusing an employer-sponsored pelvic examination.

  11. We need Psephos back to reassure us how great things are in Iraq.

    Why, I saw a headline ‘Iraq in Chaos’. This cannot be true.

  12. bemused

    [And if Israel kills some of them, what then?]

    They are only government servants.

    The UC couldn’t give an FF, although they’d sound like they did, at least a bleat for forms sake would be put up.

  13. bemused

    As said all is Hunky Dorie in Iraq. So don’t sweat on this.

    There’s stuff all you and I can do anyway.

    A donation of ‘water wings’ to those downstream from Mosul Dam might be useful.

    Who knows.

  14. CTar1@1623

    bemused

    And if Israel kills some of them, what then?


    They are only government servants.

    The UC couldn’t give an FF, although they’d sound like they did, at least a bleat for forms sake would be put up.

    The UK general public may not feel quite the same way.

    Israel has just about exhausted its stock of good will around the world.

  15. CTar1@1624

    bemused

    As said all is Hunky Dorie in Iraq. So don’t sweat on this.

    There’s stuff all you and I can do anyway.

    A donation of ‘water wings’ to those downstream from Mosul Dam might be useful.

    Who knows.

    Of course the Biblical story of ‘the flood’ comes from the Gilgamesh and occurred in Babylon.

    History may repeat itself.

  16. [ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 4:35 pm | PERMALINK
    I see Abbott will just ride his bike down the road a few metres for this years pollie pedal, then off to The Netherlands to do something or other.

    I assume we will see photo ops with him in a hair net.]

    He will probably ride a bike in the Netherlands, say it is part of Pollie Pedal and claim travel allowance at $x per km away from home in Sydney.

    The Fairfax article about his trip doesn’t mention him doing anything that a PM needs to travel to the Netherlands to do.

    [Mr Abbott will fly out from Canberra to The Hague early on Sunday morning to meet with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to thank him for the Netherlands’ work leading the search for the remains of those killed in the plane crash in eastern Ukraine.

    During his short visit to the Netherlands, Mr Abbott will be briefed on the victim-identification process by the Dutch chief scientist.

    He will also welcome back Australian police and Defence personnel who have been working on the crash site and who are returning to the Netherlands from Ukraine. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-to-visit-netherlands-about-mh17-disaster-20140809-1027×9.html#ixzz39snQXfJ8

    The Australian police, defence and crash investigation personnel must be getting a bit weary of being farewelled in Australia, welcomed in Ukraine, presumably farewelled in Ukraine and now welcomed by Abbott in Holland.

  17. [The Australian police, defence and crash investigation personnel must be getting a bit weary of being farewelled in Australia, welcomed in Ukraine, presumably farewelled in Ukraine and now welcomed by Abbott in Holland.]

    And when they finally return to Australia, perhaps the GG will get a look in.

  18. citizen

    From my reading 11 AFP officers have accessed the crash site, a couple are identifying bodies, the hundreds of others have been doing sfa.

    Abbott is desperate for a man of steel moment. His desperation ensures he will never get one.

  19. lizzie@1628

    The Australian police, defence and crash investigation personnel must be getting a bit weary of being farewelled in Australia, welcomed in Ukraine, presumably farewelled in Ukraine and now welcomed by Abbott in Holland.


    And when they finally return to Australia, perhaps the GG will get a look in.

    I think Abbott should visit the MH17 crash site and lead the search for a while. He could then continue on to Moscow to give Putin a dressing down. 😛

  20. bemused

    [History may repeat itself.]

    Yep. ‘Repeat’ – the Tigris Valley could be a very ‘Fertile Crescent’ next year.

    Nothing like a very big flood to share the largess.

  21. [‘‘There is a looming humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in northern Iraq right now,” Mr Abbott told reporters in Sydney on Saturday.]

    Abbott is all over the shop, slashes $7.6 billion from overseas aid but races in to offer a humanitarian mission to Iraq and at what cost who knows. Just because the US is getting involved Tony feels the need to get his foot in the door. He’s such a media tart.

  22. Time to start getting designs for a huge granite monument with the names of Abbott and the rest of the climate do nothings chiseled on in very large letters. Lest history forget who they were.

    [‘We’re f*****’: Climate change will be catastrophic for mankind after study reveals methane leaking from the Arctic Ocean, scientist warns

    scientists found huge plumes of deadly methane escaping from the seafloor.

    This is according to Dr Jason Box who claims that methane will be the main driver of climate change if it escapes into the atmosphere.

    He said: ‘If even a small fraction of Arctic sea floor carbon is released to the atmosphere, we’re f’d’]
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2719727/Were-f-ked-Climate-change-catastrophe-mankind-study-shows-methane-leaking-Arctic-Ocean-scientist-warns.html

  23. Oh dear, what would our friend Mick make of this:
    [Labour Party chief Ed Miliband has denounced Israel’s conduct uncategorically, and a Muslim minister has resigned from Cameron’s cabinet]
    Particularly as Miliband is Jewish.

  24. [bemused

    I think Abbott should visit the MH17 crash site and lead the search for a while. He could then continue on to Moscow to give Putin a dressing down.]

    He could enter the war zone in hi-viz vest and proclaim “NO CARBON TAX”.

    Ukraine soldiers and rebels alike would be amazed at his wisdom and would wonder why they were were fighting each other when they could combine to defeat the dreaded CARBON TAX.

  25. frednk

    Working Dog’s Utopia could be just the ticket if it has the Standard of previous efforts like Frontline and The Hollow Men

  26. I bet the Netherlands government is completely wrapped that Abbott is about to descend on them. Just what they need, an internationally renowned idiot getting in the way of the sensitive process of victim identification. Abbott has nothing to offer, other than bringing the whole MH17 disaster back onto Australias tv screens which will only add to the distress of the victims families and friends. They must despise him.

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